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DarthMetaKnight
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23 Sep 2017, 5:28 pm

drwho222 wrote:
Trump should be the poster child for the decline of Western hegemony.


This is true, but not in the way you think.

Trump's approval rating is plummeting. He will likely be replaced by Sanders in 2020.


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drwho222
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23 Sep 2017, 5:36 pm

DarthMetaKnight wrote:
drwho222 wrote:
Trump should be the poster child for the decline of Western hegemony.


This is true, but not in the way you think.

Trump's approval rating is plummeting. He will likely be replaced by Sanders in 2020.


Sanders wont even get the Democratic nomination, and will most likely not even run for it. And I say that as someone who despises Trump. You seriously don't get US politics do you? People who fail to get nominations have little or no chance of ever doing so in the future. That's the reason Hillary wont make another attempt, and also the reason Romney wont either. I would bet you $1,000,000 USD that there will *NEVER* be a Sanders Presidency.



techstepgenr8tion
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23 Sep 2017, 5:43 pm

While China's growing I have my doubts that they'll move forward so well as to be the sole world superpower and leave us in a place where we are to them what Britain now is to us. We may find ourselves in a multi-polar world with two or three hubs of power but it's unlikely that China will be a world-dominating force.

The things I keep hearing about China is that their government spending and business debt is insane. Everything we've been doing wrong in the last ten or twenty years in the way of going wild with credit, taking on too much debt, and inflating the currency they're right there with us or may even be moving to pass us.

I think the most interesting things China is doing are exporting jobs to India, similar to how we export to Mexico, and they've been laying down a lot of infrastructure in Sub-Saharan and Western Africa. If anything, if we see Africa become increasingly first world and much more resistant to Islamization we'll have China to thank for a lot of that.

My guess is that, with the way innovation is going, we may be moving beyond any nations being supreme power-players and that might soon be a permanent thing.

The other part, even if China's economy eclipses the US economy, at what point would the world reserve currency shift from the US dollar to the Renminbi? At what point would the world see them as so stable that they look like the better holder of that title in the long-term? It very well could happen, just that it would be a lot of hard work and - short of massive catastrophe on our continent - that change wouldn't be likely to occur (if it were going to) until perhaps the close of the century.


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Last edited by techstepgenr8tion on 23 Sep 2017, 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Mikah
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23 Sep 2017, 6:20 pm

techstepgenr8tion wrote:
While China's growing I have my doubts that they'll move forward so well as to be the soul world superpower and leave us in a place where we are to them what Britain now is to us. We may find ourselves in a multi-polar world with two or three hubs of power but it's unlikely that China will be a world-dominating force.


This is quite a reasonable prediction. A unipolar world isn't necessarily going to be replaced with another unipolar world. A lot of the China hysteria is the American press going nuts about potential competitors as they are wont to do. In the 80s the Japanese played that role, until their bubble burst. Everyone should treat any figures coming from China with serious scepticism, figures are tweaked internally to please the CCP and tweaked again by the CCP for propaganda purposes. I can't recall where I read it now, but an economist decided to take a good look at Chinese economy and in the same year that 6%+ growth was reported, he estimated its real growth was closer to 0% and even then completely debt driven.

Economics aside, if America disappears from the region, you can expect much instability and potential conflict to appear, particularly from Korea and Japan (Japan is hated to this day by the CCP and Chinese people for crimes past, Japan hatred is often stirred up by the CCP domestically for political reasons). With the America gone, Japan will have every reason to invest in their military, perhaps even acquiring nuclear weapons - they certainly have the technology and expertise. N Korea is already going nuclear. There's also Russia (nuclear) to the North and India (also nuclear capable) to the south. It's not an easy position to be in if becoming a global power is your goal. To even think about, China would have to appease, conquer or otherwise neutralise these countries.

But this is not to dismiss China as a major player in the future, they are better placed than anyone else to take advantage of America's waning hegemony, but that is not saying much.


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drwho222
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09 Oct 2017, 3:04 pm

DarthMetaKnight wrote:
Some of this is irrelevant and some of it is completely wrong.

drwho222 wrote:
Facts are facts. By 2027 the Chinese economy will be as big as that of the US. By 2050 it will be twice the size of that of the US.


Meh.

Sweden isn't as powerful as the United States, but it still has a high standard of living. A "weak" country can still have a high standard of living if the resources are distributed well.

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Western nations are disorganized, led by dysfunctional governments, and the worst of friends.


Worst of friends? What gave you that idea? The Western countries get along just fine. We haven't had a war between Western powers in decades.

It is true that Western countries are disorganized ... because we have freedom.
Are you calling for authoritarianism? This wouldn't surprise me. In some of your previous posts, you called for eugenics, which is a type of racist authoritarianism.

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The colonial legacy of the 18th and 19th centuries has left an abiding hatred of us in most of the developing world.


We can easily solve this problem by voting for liberal leftists and dismantling the empire.

Britain once had a powerful empire. Nowadays, you almost never hear anyone scream "Death to Britain!" This is because America is the new militant ringleader.

Look at Japan. America nuked Japan at the end of WW2. It was one of the most horrifying human rights violations in all of history. Nowadays, most Japanese people are okay with America ... because Japan isn't currently under American occupation.

The third world isn't mad at America over what happened in the past. They're mad about what's happening right now.

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And we are stagnant, obsessed with past success, no longer looking forward.


This is totally wrong. We have moved forward on racial and sexual issues by several miles. Technological growth is still accelerating. We may be in a state of political stagnation (Watch "Hypernormalization" by Adam Curtis.) but Bernie Sanders is about to shatter this stagnation like a wrecking ball. He's the most popular politician in America right now. The multibillionaires are desperately trying to stomp out his fire, but they're just feeling the Bern.

Sanders 2020


Sweden isn't as powerful as the US--yeah that's your understatement of the decade. Who would you send to fight the Chinese if they attacked Europe? A longboat full of Vikings? The only European country whose military still matters on the global stage is the UK.