Board index › Topical Discussion › Politics, Philosophy, and Religion

How many Trump supporters can be persuaded?

Page 2 of 9 [ 142 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 9  Next

Previous topic | Next topic

Tim_Tex
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 2 Jul 2004
Age: 44
Gender: Male
Posts: 45,529
Location: Houston, Texas

15 Oct 2017, 10:43 pm

Shahunshah wrote:
Chichikov wrote:
Isn't democracy terrible! It's so frustrating. People should have the same opinions that I do and if they don't they should somehow be forced to change. It's about time we gave fascism a chance, huh?

You know, one thing I don't like?

Caricatures. If things are to improve in the worldwide, we have got to stop talking down at people and alienating them, whether they be left wing, conservative etc. Words like SJWs and Rednecks are all the same, they shut down discussions and create bubbles.


And the broad generalizations about various political views need to go as well.


_________________
Who’s better at math than a robot? They’re made of math!

Now proficient in ChatGPT!


naturalplastic
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 26 Aug 2010
Age: 69
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,136
Location: temperate zone

16 Oct 2017, 2:34 am

Kraichgauer wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.


He was obviously being sarcastic, and was obviously accusing you of being a fascist.



Kraichgauer
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 47,794
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.

16 Oct 2017, 5:05 am

naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.


He was obviously being sarcastic, and was obviously accusing you of being a fascist.


If so, he obviously doesn't know me, despite reading reams of my posts.


_________________
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer


EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

16 Oct 2017, 6:50 am

naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.


He was obviously being sarcastic, and was obviously accusing you of being a fascist.


Many who embrace liberalism, are blind to how fascist it is in its attempt to conform society through coercion into having a singular mindset.



auntblabby
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 12 Feb 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 113,735
Location: the island of defective toy santas

16 Oct 2017, 6:53 am

EzraS wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.


He was obviously being sarcastic, and was obviously accusing you of being a fascist.


Many who embrace liberalism, are blind to how fascist it is in its attempt to conform society through coercion into having a singular mindset.

what about all the goptp right wingers who are all about using the law to force people like me to live a randian right-wing lifestyle [or die trying]?



naturalplastic
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 26 Aug 2010
Age: 69
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,136
Location: temperate zone

16 Oct 2017, 9:27 am

EzraS wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.


He was obviously being sarcastic, and was obviously accusing you of being a fascist.


Many who embrace liberalism, are blind to how fascist it is in its attempt to conform society through coercion into having a singular mindset.


he said in his blind attempt to shame everyone into conforming to his way of thinking. :lol:



EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

16 Oct 2017, 11:40 am

naturalplastic wrote:
EzraS wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.


He was obviously being sarcastic, and was obviously accusing you of being a fascist.


Many who embrace liberalism, are blind to how fascist it is in its attempt to conform society through coercion into having a singular mindset.


he said in his blind attempt to shame everyone into conforming to his way of thinking. :lol:


I don't tell people they have to adhere to a particular minset or else they're a nazi or a ____phobe etc.



Kraichgauer
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 47,794
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.

16 Oct 2017, 1:03 pm

EzraS wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.


He was obviously being sarcastic, and was obviously accusing you of being a fascist.


Many who embrace liberalism, are blind to how fascist it is in its attempt to conform society through coercion into having a singular mindset.


Without liberalism, wide spread racism and homophobia would still be acceptable. Is fighting against that bigoted mindset somehow fascist?


_________________
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer


kraftiekortie
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 4 Feb 2014
Gender: Male
Posts: 87,510
Location: Queens, NYC

16 Oct 2017, 1:49 pm

Without some sort of expansive thought, we'd still have slavery to this day.

Conservatism seeks to maintain the Status Quo.

Do you believe the present Status Quo should be maintained? I think not!! !! !



Meistersinger
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 10 May 2012
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,700
Location: Beautiful(?) West Manchester Township PA

16 Oct 2017, 3:08 pm

auntblabby wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.

part of having no shame is not ever feeling the need to explain anything to anybody outside of one's clique or even within. I am reminded of the words of joseph welch at the army McCarthy hearings, "at long last, sir, have you no sense of decency?"


Unfortunately, nowadays, there is no sense of decency. The current administration is more than ample proof of that.

Besides, it serves no purpose to try to convince anyone of anything, especially when their minds are closed to any other possibilities.



EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

17 Oct 2017, 1:48 am

Kraichgauer wrote:
EzraS wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.


He was obviously being sarcastic, and was obviously accusing you of being a fascist.


Many who embrace liberalism, are blind to how fascist it is in its attempt to conform society through coercion into having a singular mindset.


Without liberalism, wide spread racism and homophobia would still be acceptable. Is fighting against that bigoted mindset somehow fascist?


I believe that's true to a degree. But at the same time it's simply applied that same attitude by liberally labling people as nazis and _____phobes as a means of controling society. Basically it seems like what liberalism strives for is a master society as far as ideology goes; and those who don't capitulate are basically labeled as the scum of the earth.



kraftiekortie
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 4 Feb 2014
Gender: Male
Posts: 87,510
Location: Queens, NYC

17 Oct 2017, 9:17 am

I believe only the really "extreme" liberals would label a conservative a "Nazi."

Labeling somebody who is conservative a Nazi, fascist, or whatever, goes beyond the pale. It's ridiculous.

I don't believe Trump is a Nazi----but I do believe he has totalitarian tendencies.



The_Walrus
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator

User avatar

Joined: 27 Jan 2010
Age: 29
Gender: Male
Posts: 8,811
Location: London

17 Oct 2017, 9:40 am

Read some good articles about this yesterday (albeit based on opinion polls from a low-quality pollster, SurveyMonkey).

About 15% of Trump supporters in the Presidential election were reluctant to vote for him. That obviously means 85% were not, but 15% is pretty huge. In the unlikely event of them all switching to the Democrats, then the Democrats would win not only all the 2016 swing states, but also Alaska, Texas, and South Carolina. That's a massive 425 electoral votes.

Before you get excited, it's worth noting that these voters are distributed in a way that is unhelpful to the Democrats. They tend to be well-educated, white, and Republican-leaning. They're probably concentrated disproportionately in blue states on the coasts.

And while the tendency is for them to be moderate Republicans, about 10% identify as strongly socially conservative. Those are very unlikely to switch to a Democrat, and are quite unlikely to just not vote, so they'll either go to a conservative third party (the Constitution Party?) or stick with Trump.

What % of unenthusiastic Trump supporters currently disapprove? About 37%, with 14% strongly disapproving (so 23% only slightly disapprove). This compares to 4% of enthusiastic Trump supporters who disapprove of him, and 55.7% of American adults who disapprove of him.

According to another survey (by a stronger pollster), about 26% of Trump voters identify as Democrats. Many of them voted Democrat down the ticket in 2016. It would seem reasonable that these people would be willing to vote against Mr Trump in the future.

Obama-Trump voters are concentrated around the Rust Belt (no surprise if you look at '12 and '16 election maps!). These people tend to be relatively unconcerned about immigration compared to ordinary Trump supporters, relatively pessimistic about the economy compared to most Americans, and don't think Trump cares about people like them. Most of them prefer the Republicans to the Democrats, but don't identify with either party or pay much attention to politics. According to a slightly dated poll, 70% of these people approve of the job Trump is doing, while 22% do not. 16% regret voting for him.

From these numbers, I would guess that around 20-30% of Trump supporters can be reasoned with, but most of them will probably vote for him in the next election anyway. But with the margins in key states being so narrow, it only takes a small number of his supporters getting fed up for re-election to become very tricky.

Sources:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/re ... hes-doing/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr ... reluctant/
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/upsh ... think.html
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tr ... 4e440e24a9
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/0 ... oll-242334
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr ... should-be/



Aristophanes
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 10 Apr 2014
Age: 43
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,603
Location: USA

17 Oct 2017, 9:49 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
I believe only the really "extreme" liberals would label a conservative a "Nazi."

Labeling somebody who is conservative a Nazi, fascist, or whatever, goes beyond the pale. It's ridiculous.

I don't believe Trump is a Nazi----but I do believe he has totalitarian tendencies.

Too many times I've seen someone point out that what a politician is doing has already been done by the Nazi's/other totalitarians and the supporter of said politician screams that they're personally being called a Nazi. Not even close.



Aristophanes
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 10 Apr 2014
Age: 43
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,603
Location: USA

17 Oct 2017, 10:44 am

The_Walrus wrote:
Read some good articles about this yesterday (albeit based on opinion polls from a low-quality pollster, SurveyMonkey).

About 15% of Trump supporters in the Presidential election were reluctant to vote for him. That obviously means 85% were not, but 15% is pretty huge. In the unlikely event of them all switching to the Democrats, then the Democrats would win not only all the 2016 swing states, but also Alaska, Texas, and South Carolina. That's a massive 425 electoral votes.

Before you get excited, it's worth noting that these voters are distributed in a way that is unhelpful to the Democrats. They tend to be well-educated, white, and Republican-leaning. They're probably concentrated disproportionately in blue states on the coasts.

And while the tendency is for them to be moderate Republicans, about 10% identify as strongly socially conservative. Those are very unlikely to switch to a Democrat, and are quite unlikely to just not vote, so they'll either go to a conservative third party (the Constitution Party?) or stick with Trump.

What % of unenthusiastic Trump supporters currently disapprove? About 37%, with 14% strongly disapproving (so 23% only slightly disapprove). This compares to 4% of enthusiastic Trump supporters who disapprove of him, and 55.7% of American adults who disapprove of him.

According to another survey (by a stronger pollster), about 26% of Trump voters identify as Democrats. Many of them voted Democrat down the ticket in 2016. It would seem reasonable that these people would be willing to vote against Mr Trump in the future.

Obama-Trump voters are concentrated around the Rust Belt (no surprise if you look at '12 and '16 election maps!). These people tend to be relatively unconcerned about immigration compared to ordinary Trump supporters, relatively pessimistic about the economy compared to most Americans, and don't think Trump cares about people like them. Most of them prefer the Republicans to the Democrats, but don't identify with either party or pay much attention to politics. According to a slightly dated poll, 70% of these people approve of the job Trump is doing, while 22% do not. 16% regret voting for him.

From these numbers, I would guess that around 20-30% of Trump supporters can be reasoned with, but most of them will probably vote for him in the next election anyway. But with the margins in key states being so narrow, it only takes a small number of his supporters getting fed up for re-election to become very tricky.

Sources:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/re ... hes-doing/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr ... reluctant/
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/upsh ... think.html
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tr ... 4e440e24a9
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/0 ... oll-242334
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr ... should-be/

Those are all national polls, the same type that got the media in trouble during the election. We don't vote at a national level, through the electoral college system everything is a winner take all at the state level. While 15% less people voting for Trump is a large number, if we look at the state demographics it has very little impact. Take Alabama, which voted ~62-34 for Trump, take that 15% and swing it the other way (62% * .15 = 9.3% percent of overall population), it's still 53%/43% Trump, and 10 points is still not a close race, and Trump wins all 9 electoral votes regardless. Likewise, take New York which went ~61/33 Hillary, it's now 70/24 Hillary and it makes not a lick of difference she only gets 29 electoral votes regardless of how much she runs up the score.



Kraichgauer
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 47,794
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.

17 Oct 2017, 11:48 am

EzraS wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
EzraS wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
^^^^K, I would not make that assumption. there are some posters here who think the big F is a good thing.


I know. I thought I'd be polite and let him explain this promotion of fascism.


He was obviously being sarcastic, and was obviously accusing you of being a fascist.


Many who embrace liberalism, are blind to how fascist it is in its attempt to conform society through coercion into having a singular mindset.


Without liberalism, wide spread racism and homophobia would still be acceptable. Is fighting against that bigoted mindset somehow fascist?


I believe that's true to a degree. But at the same time it's simply applied that same attitude by liberally labling people as nazis and _____phobes as a means of controling society. Basically it seems like what liberalism strives for is a master society as far as ideology goes; and those who don't capitulate are basically labeled as the scum of the earth.


I'm sure those terms have been thrown around too much, but then again, there are people who are clearly Nazis and homophobes, such as Richard Spencer and Roy Moore.


_________________
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer