Peak Oil and Population reduction
http://www.gapminder.org/videos/what-st ... on-growth/
But the real bomb is future medicine. If lifespans can be greatly increased through cheap genetic therapies, the world population could rapidly swell. Ive read some good short stories dealing with this topic.
With increased longevity comes delayed reproduction. For instance in the west many women put off having children till after 30, especially educated ones.
Sure, that's what the link points out.
But there are still places due to double as they adjust to modern conditions. If you change the conditions again, there will be inevitable growth as people adapt. The first generation would breed and then suddenly not die on cue. There is an immediate effect.
Maybe it can reassure you a little, USA as already been through a time where it had to use less oil.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EIA_petroleum_consumption_of_selected_nations_1960-2005.png
The oil won't disappear sudenly, it will slowly be less available. With a little luck we will be able to adapt. Then again seen how stupid humans are. ![]()
There was no alternative to coil, then oil was found to work.
I'm not really sure you can compare the switch from coal to oil to the current scenario...but who knows? Maybe we'll luck out and find something?
_________________
Wherever they burn books they will also, in the end, burn human beings. ~Heinrich Heine, Almansor, 1823
?I wouldn't recommend sex, drugs or insanity for everyone, but they've always worked for me.? - Hunter S. Thompson
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EIA_petroleum_consumption_of_selected_nations_1960-2005.png
The oil won't disappear sudenly, it will slowly be less available. With a little luck we will be able to adapt. Then again seen how stupid humans are.
The problem there is that the drop coincided with the drop in domestic oil production...it's also about the same time when you started to see more and more investment in arab oil and the prices dropped domestically again.
I dunno about stupid but we certainly are dependent on it for everything (literally).
Still think population reduction is the only viable method and even that will have a rough patch waiting for the worst generation to die off.
_________________
Wherever they burn books they will also, in the end, burn human beings. ~Heinrich Heine, Almansor, 1823
?I wouldn't recommend sex, drugs or insanity for everyone, but they've always worked for me.? - Hunter S. Thompson
I think there are some solutions. We certainly could switch from a ridiculously over-bloated reliance on automobiles to a massive expansion of mag lev lines, with extreme high speed linking the cities and less-speedy but economical lines replacing major thoroughfares. It could even be suspended above the streets, allowing a large space to go on foot as well as bicycling, which is an ideal form of transport in a city anyways. I can imagine such a system would probably cost a lot to implement initially, but recycled materials (such as from the huge automobile fleet) could certainly keep costs down.
If we weren't using oil for fuel anymore, the crunch will probably feel a lot less tight, and most of the oil would go to manufacturing plastics and other petroleum-related materials.
I suspect geothermal energy will become much more popular. The industry is slowly rising in many parts of the world. There are a lot of interesting solutions. And in any case, as I have quoted in my signature from Thomas Hobbes, on 'Final War'
So perhaps overpopulation will not be an issue, if only due to us inevitably killing each-other so frequently for mouthfuls of water
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Opportunities multiply as they are seized. -Sun Tzu
Nature creates few men brave, industry and training makes many -Machiavelli
You can safely assume that you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EIA_petroleum_consumption_of_selected_nations_1960-2005.png
The oil won't disappear sudenly, it will slowly be less available. With a little luck we will be able to adapt. Then again seen how stupid humans are.
The problem there is that the drop coincided with the drop in domestic oil production...it's also about the same time when you started to see more and more investment in arab oil and the prices dropped domestically again.
I dunno about stupid but we certainly are dependent on it for everything (literally).
Still think population reduction is the only viable method and even that will have a rough patch waiting for the worst generation to die off.
A substantial amount of oil waste is based in products that either used to be made with other substances, or do not need to be made at all. Actually, that applies to just about everything we do.. huge amounts of utterly pointless wastage. Sad thing is that I covered this in School 25 years ago, and the same problems still apply...because the consumer and the public is constantly held accountable for actions committed by governments and corporations, and there is precious little we can do about it.
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"There is a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at heart,
that you can't take part" [Mario Savo, 1964]
I know this is Heresy but economic growth and the increased consumption
that comes along with it may be bad things.
the answer to me seems to be Use Less.
I live on $200 a month (I make more but I don't spend it.
well I give most of it to my ex-wife).
I don't have receive any govenment aid.
the answer to peak oil is don't buy crap you don't need.
-Jake
that comes along with it may be bad things.
the answer to me seems to be Use Less.
I live on $200 a month (I make more but I don't spend it.
well I give most of it to my ex-wife).
I don't have receive any govenment aid.
the answer to peak oil is don't buy crap you don't need.
-Jake
That is a stage too late. The answer to peak oil is stop making crap we don't need.
Instead, use our resources to make things that last. The economy didn't fall over and die back when you could buy a desk that lasted for 100 years+. I don't spend substantially less per annum because I own a 100yr old desk. I just don't have to keep wasting that cash on replacing it. I get to buy something else instead.
_________________
"There is a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at heart,
that you can't take part" [Mario Savo, 1964]
I guess stop buying stop and hope they stop making it.
-Jake
_________________
?We must not look at goblin men,
We must not buy their fruits:
Who knows upon what soil they fed
Their hungry thirsty roots??
http://jakobvirgil.blogspot.com/
i made a big post about this a while back.
When peak oil hits the world population will drop significantly. This is likely to happen within 50 years time.
Thing is many people think 'peak oil' means there will be no more oil left in the planet. Thats not it. Peak oil is when the oil production cannot keep being increased to keep up with the rising demands in the world. When that happens the prices of the steadily declining oil supply will skyrocket and that makes every single industry and aspect of life in the world become more and more expensive... but primarily it will be the food supply that suffers.
Food may still be grown in sufficient numbers but the oil to transport it will make their price go up.. making the bulk of the world's population.. those who are poor... suffer and die from starvation... plus the rioting and revolts it will cause.
eventually the oil used to make fertilizers and run farm eqp. will become too expensive to use as well and food production will drop. That's when even the people and countries that are well off will lose their food security and militaries will be used to secure supply for their own nations... world population would probably drop to 2 billion within a year or two.
Futurist and singulatarian Ray Kurtzweil recently told PBS' Lauren Feeney that we don't need to worry about peak oil or carbon emissions. That's a relief. He's applied his "law of accelerating returns," developed to describe the way consumer electronics improve exponentially, to the field of solar power. Kurtzweil tells Feeney:
Today, solar is still more expensive than fossil fuels, and in most situations it still needs subsidies or special circumstances, but the costs are coming down rapidly - we are only a few years away from parity. And then it's going to keep coming down, and people will be gravitating towards solar, even if they don't care at all about the environment, because of the economics.
So right now it's at half a percent of the world's energy. People tend to dismiss technologies when they are half a percent of the solution. But doubling every two years means it's only eight more doublings before it meets a hundred percent of the world's energy needs. So that's 16 years. We will increase our use of electricity during that period, so add another couple of doublings: In 20 years we'll be meeting all of our energy needs with solar, based on this trend which has already been under way for 20 years.
People say we're running out of energy. That's only true if we stick with these old 19th century technologies. We are awash in energy from the sunlight.
There's something deeply weird about comparing iPhone improvements to solar adoption, which isn't just facing technical barriers but corporate and governmental ones.
---------------------------------------------
And stuff like this is why I said "I love Ray Kurzweil but sometimes he's a little too optimistic and eager for his own objectivity."
_________________
Wherever they burn books they will also, in the end, burn human beings. ~Heinrich Heine, Almansor, 1823
?I wouldn't recommend sex, drugs or insanity for everyone, but they've always worked for me.? - Hunter S. Thompson
That is a stage too late. The answer to peak oil is stop making crap we don't need.
Who is we? And who decides what "we" don't need? You? I didn't appoint you to be the decider of what I need.
ruveyn
Shouldn't take too much in the way of common sense to work out that a lot of the mass-produced shite we buy could be better made in more sustainable materials, or made in a manner which increases its lifespan accordingly. After all, a lot of this stuff was like that before some bright spark decided plastic and MDF was the way of the future.
_________________
"There is a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at heart,
that you can't take part" [Mario Savo, 1964]
Of what utility is a long lifespan on a product that will be obsolescent in short order. In that case cheap and useful is more important than long lasting.
Who needs a buggy whip that will last 100 years/
ruveyn
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