Major Hurricane Ophelia

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Hurricane Ophelia has been upgraded to a Category 3 storm, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Saturday.

Ophelia, the sixth major hurricane of the 2017 season, was moving at 25 mph northeast with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, the service said.

Ireland's Met Eireann weather service issued a "status red" warning for the western Irish counties of Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry. It said Ophelia could bring winds of 50 mph and gusts of more than 80 mph on Monday, with the potential for structural damage, high seas and flooding.

Met Eireann called the storm a "significant weather event" for Ireland that could potentially cause "structural damage and flooding." It advised residents to take extreme care and stay up to date with the latest storm warnings.

Britain's Meteorological Office also warned of very windy weather Monday in Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England.

By coincidence, Monday is the 30th anniversary of the Great Storm of 1987, which killed almost 20 people in Britain and felled 15 million trees.

But the NHC said the storm will likely weaken on Monday and Tuesday.

Ophelia is now the farthest east an Atlantic major hurricane has existed on record

As of midday Saturday, Hurricane Ophelia situated at approx. 2,500km southwest of Ireland and 500km south-southwest of the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean is currently tracking east-northeast. The latest information from our colleagues in the National Hurricane Centre in Miami indicates that Ophelia will become a powerful post-tropical cyclone (from thereon in ex-Hurricane Ophelia) by Monday, and there is now generally high confidence that the centre of this system will track close to and possibly even over some parts of the west coast of Ireland.

Ex-Hurricane Ophelia is expected to be near the southwest tip of Ireland by Monday morning. From there it looks set to track northwards close to the Atlantic Seaboard at a fast pace to be roughly situated 100-200km northwest of County Donegal by midnight on Monday.

This will be a significant weather event for Ireland with potentially high impacts – structural damage and flooding (particularly coastal) - and people are advised to take extreme care Keep up to date with the warnings.

Met Éireann forecasters have been monitoring this situation closely all week. We have been liaising with our international colleagues, especially at the UK Met Office, and as we are now in the 48 hour window, with access to our high resolution models, we have decided to issue specific warnings. The warnings will be updated as required.

For further information on the evolution of this system, please continue reading.

What will happen with Hurricane Ophelia?

Hurricane Ophelia is expected to undergo an extra-tropical transition over the next 24 to 36 hours. That means its structure and appearance is going to undergo drastic changes as it approaches Ireland. It will lose its hurricane status but will become a powerful extra-tropical storm. Current indications are suggesting that Ex-Hurricane Ophelia will likely engage with an upper trough of low pressure in the mid-Atlantic at some point tomorrow afternoon. This engagement will cause the storm system to accelerate somewhat north-northeast towards Ireland and the UK.

Why will this happen?

As Hurricane Ophelia tracks north from its current position, it will encounter cooler seas and it will eventually come under the influence of the westerlies. The westerlies of the mid-latitudes increase in strength with height, a phenomenon known as vertical wind shear. This shear almost literally chops off the upper part of the hurricane and sweeps it away. Along with the lower sea temperatures of the mid-latitudes this destroys the positive feedback processes within the hurricane. What remains is the former hurricane’s low-level circulation which, if conditions are right, becomes the focus of further development.

What weather is expected?

Rain can be expected over the country on Sunday night and into Monday, though the heaviest and most significant rain will remain out to sea in the Atlantic on the western side of the surface low pressure. But there will also be some heavy and possibly thundery bursts rotating around the low centre itself, so it can be reasonably assumed that counties closest to the centre of the low will see the heaviest rainfall.

At the same time, damaging winds will accompany the low centre with wind gusts of 130km/h or more. The most severe winds will be in coastal counties, with lower impacts likely for central areas. In addition, we can expect very high waves. Sea conditions will be dangerous and large waves may lead to coastal flooding.

The most dominant weather feature will be the arrival of Ex-Ophelia along the western seaboard of Ireland on Monday. Although this ex-hurricane will bring impactful weather to many northern and western parts of the UK, the forecast for other areas – such as South East England – is good with warm and mainly dry conditions likely to dominate.

Met Office chief forecaster Steve Ramsdale said: “By the time Ophelia reaches our latitudes, she will be weakening and will be an ex-hurricane. However, Ex-Ophelia will be bringing some significant impacts to Northern Ireland and western and northern Britain on Monday and Tuesday. On the basis of the latest information we have issued an Amber wind warning for Northern Ireland for the most intense period of winds between 3pm and 10pm on Monday. During this period we can expect wind gusts in excess of 60 mph with a chance of 80 mph gusts for the southeast of Northern Ireland

“Yellow wind warnings, which were first issued on Thursday, cover Northern Ireland and western and northern Britain from 12noon on Monday until midnight. While on Tuesday a separate Yellow wind warning has been issued from a period extending until 3pm on Tuesday for Northern Ireland, northern England and the southern half of Scotland.”

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.6N 13.3W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM NE OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.

Ex-Hurricane Ophelia: Key Public Safety & Information Messages

16 October 2017

People should remain indoors for the duration of the storm.
All unnecessary travel should be avoided on Monday 16thOct 2017, while the storm is passing.
Don’t travel during the height of the storm unless absolutely necessary. Listen to local radio and national media broadcasts for Met Éireann updates on the current weather situation.
High seas are predicted, the public are advised to stay away from coastal areas during this period.
Very strong winds are predicted making driving conditions hazardous, especially for the more vulnerable road users, e.g., cyclists, pedestrian’s, motorcyclist and high sided vehicles. Road users should pay particular attention to the risk posed by fallen trees and flying debris.
Given anticipated weather conditions, Mon 16thOct 2017 should be a no bike day.
Power outages are likely to occur in certain parts of the country, with contingency planning activated by the ESB. The ESB is advising the public to stay away from fallen cables that may have broken due to the high winds. ESB Emergency Services can be contacted at 1850372999.
All Schools and Colleges Closed Tomorrow: In response to the imminent Ex-Hurricane Ophelia, the Department of Education and Skills has publicly informing all schools, colleges and other education institutions that they are to remain closed tomorrow, Monday 16 October. This decision has been made following discussions with members of the Government Task Force on Emergency Planning and in light of the advice from Met Éireann on this unprecedented storm. Crèches and Montessori facilities should also remain closed tomorrow.
Many public transport services and aviation services will not operate tomorrow – please with providers before embarking on any journeys.
People are asked to check in on isolated and vulnerable neighbours in advance of the oncoming severe weather conditions and again after the worst of the event has passed.
People are advised to remove patio furniture, rubbish bins and any loose items from around buildings, which can be turned into missiles by the wind.

The majority of people across the country are facing "up to two days" without electricity - with some people expected to have no power for up to 10 days.
Bernadette Maloney, head of corporate affairs for the ESB, told the Ray D'Arcy show that Ireland is experiencing "unprecedented" outages.
Over 360,000 homes and businesses are currently without power, and the number is only increasing, as Hurricane Ophilia sweeps across the country.

Ms Maloney said earlier that between "5-10pc" of ESB customers may have to go as long as 10 days without electricity.
She said they are hoping crews from other countries will assist Ireland as the country tries to recover from the most powerful storm to hit the country in half a century.

Sources have told Independent.ie there will "easily" be 500,000 homes and businesses without electricity by tonight

Meanwhile, Conor Faughnan, director of consumer affairs with AA Roadwatch said "north of 70 or 80 roads" across the country are now closed.

"There isn't a county exempt from this. We have reports of fallen trees from every county," he told the Ray D'Arcy Show.
Storm Ophelia has caused “unprecedented” damage to Ireland’s main telephone and broadband networks, the country’s biggest telecoms firm has said.

Meanwhile, Eir says that the initial tally of 11,000 broadband, phone and mobile customers affected by the storm outages will “rise significantly” and that repairs will not happen immediately.
“Storm Ophelia has delivered unprecedented and widespread levels of damage to Eir’s infrastructure throughout the country,” said an Eir spokesman. “This includes damage to poles, cables and mast infrastructure. We anticipate that the network damage will extend as the storm tracks across the country.”

“Given the overhead nature of our network in rural Ireland, the damage will likely be extensive and repair work will take time. There are currently 90 mobile sites off air, with the worst affected areas so far in the Southwest, West and Midlands. As a result, eir estimates that there are currently over 11,000 customers without broadband, telephone and mobile services. We expect this number to rise significantly, particularly as access to our exchanges and mobile sites is restricted due to road closures.”

All of Ireland was under a “status red” wind warning, the highest level. Several locations — mostly in extreme southwest Ireland — reported wind gusts exceeding hurricane force, including:

119 mph gust at Fastnet Rock, a lighthouse about 8 miles offshore of southwest Ireland, at height of 200 feet.
97 mph gust at Roches Point, a lighthouse at the entrance to Cork Harbor.
84 mph gust at Sherkin Island, before power loss.
78 mph gust at Cork Airport, before power loss.
76 mph gust at Shannon Airport.
If the 119 mph gust at Fastnet Rock is verified and considered official, it would break the record for Ireland’s strongest wind gust of 113 mph set at Malin Head, at Ireland’s northern tip, during Hurricane Debbie in 1961.

We had an eerie yellow sky here earlier, I wondered if something was seriously wrong. It was that yellow, and really unusual. I've never seen anything like it. Apparently it was caused by the hurricane. It looked like a yellow filter had been placed in front of my eyes, everything around me outside looked yellow.

Really strange, never thought a hurricane could ever come that close to the UK.

SCOTLAND is being pummelled by ferocious winds and driving rain as a storm fuelled by ex-Hurricane Ophelia wreaks havoc across the country.

Electricity lines are down leaving homes without power, at least four flood alerts are in place with some properties – including a Coastguard HQ at Portpatrick – said to have been inundated with water.

Scores of trees have been felled amid near 80mph winds and at least one building in Glasgow’s Albert Road has partially collapsed.

Roofs were blown off buildings elsewhere including in the south-west with Dumfries and Castle Douglas badly hit.

There have also been reports of scaffolding falling, including Kirkcudbright.

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency also had 16 more severe flood warnings in place in areas including Argyll and Bute, Ayrshire and Arran, Dumfries and Galloway, West Central Scotland, Easter Ross and Great Glen and Tayside.

It comes just hours after three people were killed when hurricane force winds shrieked across Ireland and Northern Ireland where schools still remain shut as a clean-up operation there gets underway.

Here, travel chaos was sparked when a train hit an ‘object’ in the line near Markinch in Fife – one of the main routes to and from Edinburgh, with other services affected across the country.

Glasgow Central station was also hit by disruption caused by an obstruction on Neilston services. The network problems were made worse in the north by overrunning engineering works between Aberdeen and Inverness.