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John_Browning
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08 Jun 2010, 10:35 pm

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jun/7/obama-cuts-crime
Call it the Obama effect. The murder rate dropped 7.4 percent nationwide last year, and the administration can enjoy some of the credit - but not for the reason you might think. Mr. Obama's election sparked a surge in gun sales, and, consequently, crime rates have plummeted.

In November 2008, a total of 450,000 more people purchased firearms than had bought them in November 2007. This is a more than 10-fold increase, compared with the change in sales from November 2007 over November 2006, which was only about 35,000. The average year-to-year increase in monthly sales in the past decade averaged just 21,000.

The long lines at the local gun stores continued well beyond the presidential election. From November 2008 to October 2009, almost 2.5 million more people bought guns than had done so in the preceding 12 months. It is likely that the total number of guns sold was much higher, as the National Instant Criminal Background Check System only reports the number of purchasers, not how many weapons were purchased.

The last time the murder rate dropped at this rate, it was 1999, and Bill Clinton was president. In the wake of Columbine, those who feared further curtailment of their Second Amendment rights flocked to gun stores, and sales soared. Rightly so, considering the likes of deputy domestic policy adviser Elena Kagan worked behind the scenes of the Clinton White House, advocating trigger locks and more burdensome gun-control measures.

The connection between firearm ownership and safer streets is simple and direct. Criminals realize that they face far greater risks when members of the public have the tools they need to defend themselves. On the other hand, criminals see greater opportunities when the right to self-defense is restricted. Americans living in the District of Columbia and Chicago have seen this phenomenon firsthand - murder rates jumped in both cities after strict gun-control measures took effect. In the year that followed the Supreme Court's overturning of Washington's ownership ban and trigger-lock laws, murder rates plunged 25 percent.

If the Supreme Court strikes down the Chicago gun ban this month, Americans may get to see yet again that more guns mean less crime.


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ikorack
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09 Jun 2010, 12:18 am

XD I know several people who bought guns just because Obama was elected, I would also by one but I'll be in college soon and i doubt they allow guns in dorms.(even if they did i wouldn't want to own one while living on someone Else's property)



visagrunt
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09 Jun 2010, 4:03 pm

I'm not prepared to accept your, "simple and direct," connection as anything more than coincidence.

I don't subscribe to the hypothesis that the potential for a victim or a bystander to be armed ever enters into the calculus of an offender's actions.


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09 Jun 2010, 4:27 pm

visagrunt wrote:
I don't subscribe to the hypothesis that the potential for a victim or a bystander to be armed ever enters into the calculus of an offender's actions.


Look up the percentage of Canadian burglaries that are of the home invasion type versus the US percentage; you may be surprised at the difference. There are also offender surveys done in prisons that indicate that US burglars fear being shot by an armed homeowner far more than they fear the police. There are other examples out there as well if you need more convincing.


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DNForrest
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09 Jun 2010, 7:06 pm

Does the murder rate drop really compare with the number of people buying guns for the first time? I've yet to meet a person that bought a gun out of fear of President Obama that didn't already own several. Unless you have figures that show the decrease in murder is directly correlated with the increase in first-time buyers, your theory doesn't really have a backing. To be honest, I wouldn't consider correlating a 7% drop in murder rate to be correlated with anything besides being a random drop.



John_Browning
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09 Jun 2010, 7:42 pm

DNForrest wrote:
Does the murder rate drop really compare with the number of people buying guns for the first time? I've yet to meet a person that bought a gun out of fear of President Obama that didn't already own several. Unless you have figures that show the decrease in murder is directly correlated with the increase in first-time buyers, your theory doesn't really have a backing. To be honest, I wouldn't consider correlating a 7% drop in murder rate to be correlated with anything besides being a random drop.

I've met a bunch. The most noteworthy was a black lady at the gun store on election day 2008 who bought a shotgun in part because she was worried about Obama's ability to run the country, and that he would try to ban guns so she wouldn't be able to defend herself. And yes, I was at the gun store too buying my first handgun. I got a Springfield XD-9. :D


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One-Winged-Angel
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09 Jun 2010, 8:30 pm

visagrunt wrote:
I'm not prepared to accept your, "simple and direct," connection as anything more than coincidence.


It's a coincidence when it happens once. When the murder rate consistently goes down whenever gun sales are up, and increases every single time restrictive gun laws are passed, then it becomes a statistical pattern that is hard to argue against.


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iamnotaparakeet
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10 Jun 2010, 11:53 am

John_Browning wrote:
The connection between firearm ownership and safer streets is simple and direct. Criminals realize that they face far greater risks when members of the public have the tools they need to defend themselves. On the other hand, criminals see greater opportunities when the right to self-defense is restricted.


In the RTS computer game Company Of Heroes, if my opponent spams a lot of infantry, I use Sherman 'Crocodiles' against them... Sherman tanks with flamethrowers. The enemy infantry perish readily and can do almost nothing to stop the flame-throwing tank. However, even the AI recognizes that infantry alone is just going to die, so they start producing anti-tank weaponry and tanks of their own. I just thought this was partially analogous to what you were saying.



CobaltBlew
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12 Jun 2010, 5:04 am

visagrunt wrote:
I'm not prepared to accept your, "simple and direct," connection as anything more than coincidence.

I don't subscribe to the hypothesis that the potential for a victim or a bystander to be armed ever enters into the calculus of an offender's actions.


That's what I think, unless they're OCing.