Saudi Arabia

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Possible scenario:

Huge protests on the 11th leading to major civil unrest.

Oil surges to $150 or $200 a barrel causing the stock markets to tank and the end of the world as we know it.

Burn atoms, not oil.

ruveyn

Seriously?

If oil goes up to $200 a barrel, the entire world will burn! The cost of EVERYTHING, EVERYWHERE goes up when the price of oil rises-- commodities, food, water (a lot of countries, especially those in the Middle East, import much of their water). People will starve. Part of the reason why the ME has so many problems right now is because of rising prices-- due mainly in part to the rising cost of crude.

Reality: the world currently does not have the capability to not rely on oil, and it may never. They don't call it "black gold" for nothing. Everyone should be holding their breath for 3/11, because it could be even more of a turning point in world history than 9/11.



^^^^Dead on.

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I don't suggest for a moment that a Saudi shutdown wouldn't have dramatic impacts. But government has a significant capacity to help address those impacts--it's one of the reasons that monetary policy exists.

To the extent that oil companies start coining it in a new world of $200/bbl petroleum, those companies are ideally placed to then look to new opportunities for extraction and distribution. Russia, Canada, the US and other players stand to benefit considerably.

Lybia is more important than you think...

Since the rebellion, the price of diesel in my country has risen 50 cents in just 4 days.

Lybian Crude is a major source of diesel.

Impacts, sure. Gasoline here is up to $1.30 a litre and will probably hit $1.50 by summer.

This is going to have spill on effects in anything that requires petroleum to move it from A to B.

But at the end of the day, we will survive this as we survived the OPEC embargo. It will be challenging, but not insurmountable.

It would help if we actually start drilling again instead of relying on foreign countries for oil. Also we should get into Nuclear Power instead of wind mills.

Drive less. A simple routing of trips, driving can be reduced by 15%.

Drive the speculators out of the market by refusing to buy oil products.

Releasing a few million barrels from the reserves would put long term oil contracts at a loss. Oil changes hands eight times before it is delivered, Contracts at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Banks can get hot money from the Fed at .25%, QE2 is putting them in cash, so they invest in oil. There used to be a thing called the Glass Segal Act that restricted banks from playing Broker.

The problem is the economy, not oil, wheat, corn, cotton. We have plenty, but when more people buy than use, the price goes up.

If they did the same thing with a penny stock, the FBI would be kicking in the door, with the SEC right behind.

This is the plan of recapitalizing banks, who are all bankrupt, losses on real estate gutted them all. Restore Mark to Market, they are all in the red.

The people who were buying real estate lost about a trillion, and most were recent contracts. The other side, those who wrote the mortgage, stand to lose many more trillions. Their losses are about the GDP. 15 Trillion.

Real Estate is not liquid, they get the land and buildings back in a dead for decades market. A Cotton contract can be sold tomorrow.

So they borrowed money and are playing the market, Oil, Wheat, Cotton, and like the Saudis going out of production, they are holding back basic food stuffs, driving up the price.

The word for that is Extortion.

Market regulation is much easier than famine. First the cost of food drove the middle east to revolt, During famine everyone hoards, taking products off the market. Russia stopped exporting wheat.

The usual cause of a famine is not a shortage of food, it is a failure of the market. America has no reserves. We used to, that was sold, we live on the next crop.

All this hot money has distorted the market,

Drive less, walk more, eat a simpler diet lower on the food chain. Wear out your clothes, shop Goodwill, and prices will follow the market.

Longer term we have to tax the people who are making the money, Only by paying down the National Debt, making the dollar worth more, will all workers get a raise, and the value of property will rise.

An ever rising market is what causes this problem, deflation is good for workers and owners. Ten years ago a silver dollar was worth $5, now $25, but it would be better to have than a $20 bill.

Most of the people are not stock market investors, or speculators, the system should work for most, and for the next generation.

The current system is welfare for the rich.

Eat the rich.

I like the idea of eating the rich. Oops; am I guilty of instigating class warfare, now?
But for the topic at hand - maybe we can ride out losing Saudi Arabia as our pusher, as we feed our oil addiction from other sources these days. In that case, maybe we can let the Saudis dwindle in wealth and importance, so that in the future, all they'll be able to threaten us with is sand.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer

Why not both?

Surely the answer to the question of energy supply is diversifying our sources of energy rather than putting all of our eggs in one basket.

For the most part. The chief beneficiaries of government largess and redistribution are large corporations. In the form of subsidies and lucrative contracts with the government. The oil depletion allowance is an outright gift of taxpayer money to some well off petroleum extractors. Agricultural grants and subsidies go to corporate farms more than household farms for which such grants were originally intended.

ruveyn

I am still getting over this price shock at the pump this evening.
£1.349 per litre which is $2.20 using todays exchange rate.

I can't wait for the other shoe to drop.

We all know that collapse is inevitable so lets get it over with!

When a man has to hitch up the mules to plow the back 40 acres that will be the end of bringing consumer crap from China or flying oranges in from countries half way around the world.

When the brown stuff hits the fan we will be free of those bankster swine. We will be free of feminism, "political correctness", the welfare state and the "military industrial complex"

Good riddance! We can start again from 1890 with steam trains and perhaps we will get it right this time.

Or, we could more likely become the Third World, and be exploited by someone else for imperturbability.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer

I worked briefly in Saudi Arabia some years ago and the removal of the al-Saud family cannot come soon enough.

I hope they get the mess cleaned up, so that the wildlife there won't have to suffer for that much longer.