Do you think Barack Obama will win in 2012?
25 Apr 2011, 8:39 pm
Jacoby wrote:
I'd say he has about a 60% chance of being reelected. He's not popular, the economy sucks, and he broke about every campaign promise he ever made. He has the advantage of being an incumbent and can raise a massive amount of money. It really depends on who the GOP nominates. Isn't really a big deal tho if he gets reelected, he won't be able to push any legislation at all thru and we'd likely have deadlock since the GOP will have the House and Senate since the Democrats have like double the seats to defend in 2012 and 2014 because of their huge gains in 2006 and 2008. It's conceivable that the GOP could have a supermajority in the senate going into 2016 presidential election so maybe it would better for Obama to lose for you leftys out there.
A year of gas prices over $5.00 a gallon will finish off Obama. It is almost worth it paying that price to be ride of Obama.
ruveyn
MarketAndChurch
Veteran
Joined: 3 Apr 2011
Age: 37
Gender: Male
Posts: 2,022
Location: The Peoples Republic Of Portland
25 Apr 2011, 8:46 pm
Real Clear Politics gave 6 reasons why a second Obama presidency is likely... Their analysis tend to be accurate. And as much as people may not like Obama, even more importantly, his policies, they will choose the devil they know over the one they don't. I'll link it up and summarize.
First three:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 09618.html
Argument 1: We don't usually turn out our presidents
Argument 2: The economic rebound will carry Obama to victory.
Argument 3: Obama is doing well in the polls.
Second three:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 09630.html
Argument 4: Changes in Demographics and Turnout Will Aid the Democratic Cause.
Argument 5: The Republican Field Is Too Weak to Win. (I think this is his greatest strength)
Argument 6: Obama Will Raise a Billion Dollars.
If the Republicans had 1 strong candidate, they will win hands down! But they don't so it looks like a second term for Obama.
_________________
It is not up to you to finish the task, nor are you free to desist from trying.
25 Apr 2011, 8:55 pm
ruveyn wrote:
A year of gas prices over $5.00 a gallon will finish off Obama. It is almost worth it paying that price to be ride of Obama.
Only if the year is 2012, and not 2011.
Of course, I'm a fan of higher gasoline prices anyway. We're going to get them eventually as the conventional sources of oil run out, and getting them sooner rather than later will encourage us to work on better fuel efficiency more promptly.
I'd just prefer we got them because of gasoline taxes that helped balance the budget, rather than because of crude oil prices that just benefit objectionable regimes like Iran.
Jacoby
Veteran
Joined: 10 Dec 2007
Age: 32
Gender: Male
Posts: 14,284
Location: Permanently banned by power tripping mods lol this forum is trash
25 Apr 2011, 9:37 pm
There has been no economic rebound and Obama's polling has been unimpressive. If you're an incumbent and get under 50%, you're in dangerous territory. The problem with the GOP field is that most of them lack name recognition besides Trump, Palin, Huckabee, and Romney. Nobody is really widely known to the general public and I don't think the first 3 of those I mentioned are even running. $5 gas, near 10% unemployment, 3 wars, record deficits, and an extremely unpopular new healthcare law; what does Obama have going for him besides his fundraising ability and his supposedly great skills as an orator? Honestly, I always thought he was overrated as speaker, he almost always comes off poorly when he isn't giving prepared speeches. Lots of stammering and pretty gaffe prone.
Last edited by Jacoby on 26 Apr 2011, 7:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
26 Apr 2011, 1:53 am
psychohist wrote:
ruveyn wrote:
A year of gas prices over $5.00 a gallon will finish off Obama. It is almost worth it paying that price to be ride of Obama.
Only if the year is 2012, and not 2011.
.
That is what I had in mind. 2011 is the year of $4.00 gas. 2012 is the year of $5.00 gas. Then Free at last, Free at Last, thank God almighty we will be Free at Last.
ruveyn
26 Apr 2011, 8:56 am
Vexcalibur wrote:
...and then 2013 is the year of 6 dollars gas gallon.
2015 will be funny.
2015 will be funny.
Quote:
Argument 2: The economic rebound will carry Obama to victory.
What economic rebound?If Obama wins, odds are it will probably be due to voter fraud, I honestly think a hamster would be able to beat Obama in 2012.
iamnotaparakeet
Veteran
Joined: 31 Jul 2007
Age: 38
Gender: Male
Posts: 25,091
Location: 0.5 Galactic radius
26 Apr 2011, 10:18 am
minervx wrote:
1. The Republican Party is divided and lacks a definitive leader
Good thing that it's a presidential election and not a party-election, isn't it? However, even though the candidate to be placed on the ballot isn't certain yet, I would rather vote for a Republican than a Democrat for, at the least, financial reasons. Although, with how populated the Republican party is with RINOs it is difficult to know which Republican isn't essentially just another Democrat.... Even still there's more chance of electing a non-Democrat by voting Republican than it is by voting Democrat and hoping they're a DINO.... I will be voting for the Republican candidate so long as there is some chance that they are not a RINO and if it appears to be a choice of a RINO versus reelecting Obama I'd still rather elect the RINO.
minervx wrote:
2. Barack Obama now has more political experience.
Not really. He's been employed as president for about 75% of his term, but I kinda doubt he's gained any experience from it.
minervx wrote:
3. Barack Obama is more charismatic than the Republicans
Charisma is crap seasoned according to the tastes of one's audience.
minervx wrote:
4. Barack Obama, regardless of his skill in office, is skilled on the campaign trail.
Actually, making speeches in front of useful idiots is about the only thing Obama is good at.
minervx wrote:
5. Despite his unpopularity, he still leads over Republicans in polls.
Hopefully the activity of "polls", which I wonder who is doing such polling, will not carry through to the election day, otherwise we may be stuck with Obama for yet another four years of "economic recovery"....
26 Apr 2011, 11:48 am
Saw this article by Alana Goodman today on the tactics the President will be using in trying to win re-election. It's hard for me to buy the idea that Obama, the President, is an underdog in this fight.
Obama Campaign Pushes Underdog Narrative
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/ ... narrative/
From the article:
Quote:
President Obama’s campaign manager Jim Messina released a video for supporters yesterday, outlining the president’s reelection strategy. He touched on some key themes that Democrats are likely to hammer on in the lead-up to 2012.
For one, Messina informed the liberal base that Obama’s victory is far from guaranteed, especially with Republicans “fired-up” to oust the president. Because of that, Obama supporters need to be out in full force, said Messina. He also attempted to paint the president as an underdog and an outsider, another narrative that’s intended to motivate the left.
“We ought not to act like an incumbent,” said Messina. “We oughta’ act like an insurgent campaign.”
If Obama runs the same campaign he did in 2008, “we stand a good chance of losing,” Messina added. “[W]e need to build something new – better, faster and sleeker.”
The attempt to portray Obama as an underdog might sound ridiculous, but Democrats will try to pull it off by attacking Republicans for allegedly being in the pocket of corporations, oil companies, and Wall Street. In the video, Messina suggested that the Citizens United ruling gave the GOP a financial advantage in the 2012 election, and the Democrats would have to work even harder than in 2008 to pull in donors and voters
For one, Messina informed the liberal base that Obama’s victory is far from guaranteed, especially with Republicans “fired-up” to oust the president. Because of that, Obama supporters need to be out in full force, said Messina. He also attempted to paint the president as an underdog and an outsider, another narrative that’s intended to motivate the left.
“We ought not to act like an incumbent,” said Messina. “We oughta’ act like an insurgent campaign.”
If Obama runs the same campaign he did in 2008, “we stand a good chance of losing,” Messina added. “[W]e need to build something new – better, faster and sleeker.”
The attempt to portray Obama as an underdog might sound ridiculous, but Democrats will try to pull it off by attacking Republicans for allegedly being in the pocket of corporations, oil companies, and Wall Street. In the video, Messina suggested that the Citizens United ruling gave the GOP a financial advantage in the 2012 election, and the Democrats would have to work even harder than in 2008 to pull in donors and voters
Kraichgauer
Veteran
Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 47,795
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.
27 Apr 2011, 8:39 pm
Inuyasha wrote:
Vexcalibur wrote:
...and then 2013 is the year of 6 dollars gas gallon.
2015 will be funny.
2015 will be funny.
Quote:
Argument 2: The economic rebound will carry Obama to victory.
What economic rebound?If Obama wins, odds are it will probably be due to voter fraud, I honestly think a hamster would be able to beat Obama in 2012.
And what do you have to base that on?
It's in fact Republicans at the state level who are making it harder to register, particularly aimed at racial minorities, and young voters. If anything, Republicans are the ones who are already resorting to fraud.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
Jacoby
Veteran
Joined: 10 Dec 2007
Age: 32
Gender: Male
Posts: 14,284
Location: Permanently banned by power tripping mods lol this forum is trash
27 Apr 2011, 8:50 pm
Kraichgauer wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Vexcalibur wrote:
...and then 2013 is the year of 6 dollars gas gallon.
2015 will be funny.
2015 will be funny.
Quote:
Argument 2: The economic rebound will carry Obama to victory.
What economic rebound?If Obama wins, odds are it will probably be due to voter fraud, I honestly think a hamster would be able to beat Obama in 2012.
And what do you have to base that on?
It's in fact Republicans at the state level who are making it harder to register, particularly aimed at racial minorities, and young voters. If anything, Republicans are the ones who are already resorting to fraud.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
I assume you're referring to same day registration and having to show photo ID. That isn't fraud, that is defending against fraud. It doesn't just apply to young people or minorities.
Kraichgauer
Veteran
Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 47,795
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.
27 Apr 2011, 8:56 pm
Jacoby wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Vexcalibur wrote:
...and then 2013 is the year of 6 dollars gas gallon.
2015 will be funny.
2015 will be funny.
Quote:
Argument 2: The economic rebound will carry Obama to victory.
What economic rebound?If Obama wins, odds are it will probably be due to voter fraud, I honestly think a hamster would be able to beat Obama in 2012.
And what do you have to base that on?
It's in fact Republicans at the state level who are making it harder to register, particularly aimed at racial minorities, and young voters. If anything, Republicans are the ones who are already resorting to fraud.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
I assume you're referring to same day registration and having to show photo ID. That isn't fraud, that is defending against fraud. It doesn't just apply to young people or minorities.
But minorities, poor people, and younger people are less likely to have picture ID. I personally believe this was thought up to weed out people who are more likely to vote Democrat.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
Jacoby
Veteran
Joined: 10 Dec 2007
Age: 32
Gender: Male
Posts: 14,284
Location: Permanently banned by power tripping mods lol this forum is trash
27 Apr 2011, 9:07 pm
Kraichgauer wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Vexcalibur wrote:
...and then 2013 is the year of 6 dollars gas gallon.
2015 will be funny.
2015 will be funny.
Quote:
Argument 2: The economic rebound will carry Obama to victory.
What economic rebound?If Obama wins, odds are it will probably be due to voter fraud, I honestly think a hamster would be able to beat Obama in 2012.
And what do you have to base that on?
It's in fact Republicans at the state level who are making it harder to register, particularly aimed at racial minorities, and young voters. If anything, Republicans are the ones who are already resorting to fraud.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
I assume you're referring to same day registration and having to show photo ID. That isn't fraud, that is defending against fraud. It doesn't just apply to young people or minorities.
But minorities, poor people, and younger people are less likely to have picture ID. I personally believe this was thought up to weed out people who are more likely to vote Democrat.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
Kraichgauer
Veteran
Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 47,795
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.
27 Apr 2011, 9:24 pm
AceOfSpades wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Vexcalibur wrote:
...and then 2013 is the year of 6 dollars gas gallon.
2015 will be funny.
2015 will be funny.
Quote:
Argument 2: The economic rebound will carry Obama to victory.
What economic rebound?If Obama wins, odds are it will probably be due to voter fraud, I honestly think a hamster would be able to beat Obama in 2012.
And what do you have to base that on?
It's in fact Republicans at the state level who are making it harder to register, particularly aimed at racial minorities, and young voters. If anything, Republicans are the ones who are already resorting to fraud.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
I assume you're referring to same day registration and having to show photo ID. That isn't fraud, that is defending against fraud. It doesn't just apply to young people or minorities.
But minorities, poor people, and younger people are less likely to have picture ID. I personally believe this was thought up to weed out people who are more likely to vote Democrat.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
Nothing stopping them? Plenty of poor people or college kids can't afford to get one. If pointing that out makes me self righteous, then I'm self righteous.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
27 Apr 2011, 9:29 pm
Kraichgauer wrote:
AceOfSpades wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Vexcalibur wrote:
...and then 2013 is the year of 6 dollars gas gallon.
2015 will be funny.
2015 will be funny.
Quote:
Argument 2: The economic rebound will carry Obama to victory.
What economic rebound?If Obama wins, odds are it will probably be due to voter fraud, I honestly think a hamster would be able to beat Obama in 2012.
And what do you have to base that on?
It's in fact Republicans at the state level who are making it harder to register, particularly aimed at racial minorities, and young voters. If anything, Republicans are the ones who are already resorting to fraud.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
I assume you're referring to same day registration and having to show photo ID. That isn't fraud, that is defending against fraud. It doesn't just apply to young people or minorities.
But minorities, poor people, and younger people are less likely to have picture ID. I personally believe this was thought up to weed out people who are more likely to vote Democrat.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
Nothing stopping them? Plenty of poor people or college kids can't afford to get one. If pointing that out makes me self righteous, then I'm self righteous.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
