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minervx
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06 Jan 2012, 5:47 pm

Here are my predictions.

Romney wins with 30-35%.
Huntsman may get 10-20%, since he spent his whole campaign there, but ultimately it won't be as much as Santorum's benefit in Iowa. Ultimately, if Huntsman is not in the top 3, he will drop. If he is, he will be alive for another month before he drops. Ron Paul gets votes from his base 10%-20%, and no one else. Santorum will poll better than he did before Iowa, but his Iowa momentum won't carry over much here. This is a very important battle for Gingrich, he needs to do well here, and if not he's in trouble. Perry won't do well in NH.



Jacoby
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06 Jan 2012, 6:17 pm

Romney is polling in the mid-30s to about 40% right now. Ron Paul is at about 20% and everyone else is at 10% or lower.

The media could try to pump up Huntsman like they did Santorum in Iowa but there are 2 debates this weekend and there probably won't be enough time but who knows. Why support Huntsman when you can support the better looking Mormon candidate that will probably win. Huntsman is done after NH regardless.

Gingrich and Perry are focusing on South Carolina so it will be interesting to see if Santorum beats either them in New Hampshire since I believe he is actively campaigning there.

The debates should be interesting to see how hard Romney gets pounded. Gingrich is promising to go "nuclear" on him and Santorum will certainly be looking to score points as well.

As of right now, I expect the result to look like this: Romney, Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum, Perry



snapcap
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06 Jan 2012, 6:21 pm

I predict Herman Cain is going to endorse Ron Paul before the SC primaries.


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Jacoby
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06 Jan 2012, 6:37 pm

snapcap wrote:
I predict Herman Cain is going to endorse Ron Paul before the SC primaries.


Right after Karl Rove and Dick Chaney. :lol:



Orwell
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06 Jan 2012, 8:31 pm

Jacoby wrote:
Why support Huntsman when you can support the better looking Mormon candidate that will probably win. Huntsman is done after NH regardless.

Because Huntsman is actually qualified and has at least some principles? Not to say your prediction is wrong; I anticipate Huntsman coming in fourth or so in NH and then announcing his withdrawal from the campaign shortly afterwards.


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snapcap
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06 Jan 2012, 8:49 pm

Jacoby wrote:
snapcap wrote:
I predict Herman Cain is going to endorse Ron Paul before the SC primaries.


Right after Karl Rove and Dick Chaney. :lol:


Herman Cain to make an "unconventional endorsemnt"


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Jacoby
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06 Jan 2012, 8:54 pm

Orwell wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
Why support Huntsman when you can support the better looking Mormon candidate that will probably win. Huntsman is done after NH regardless.

Because Huntsman is actually qualified and has at least some principles? Not to say your prediction is wrong; I anticipate Huntsman coming in fourth or so in NH and then announcing his withdrawal from the campaign shortly afterwards.


That was more of what I thought the average NH voter might think, I agree that he is at least marginally better than Romney. Certainly has a better conservative track record as governor of Utah. Huntsman at least isn't pretending to be something he's not.

You do have to admit they are remarkably similar in the sense they're both tremendously wealthy, moderate ex-governors, and share their Mormon faith and unmovable hair. I think it there was another week the media might of pushed Huntsman up to near 2nd place but there isn't enough time. I'm pretty sure he'll either finish 3rd or 4th.



Orwell
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06 Jan 2012, 9:05 pm

Jacoby wrote:
You do have to admit they are remarkably similar in the sense they're both tremendously wealthy, moderate ex-governors, and share their Mormon faith and unmovable hair. I think it there was another week the media might of pushed Huntsman up to near 2nd place but there isn't enough time. I'm pretty sure he'll either finish 3rd or 4th.

Huntsman was very conservative as governor of Utah, and has proposed the most conservative platform of any GOP candidate. Romney was center to center-left, but that may have largely been a function of trying to get something done with a Democratic legislature. What they appear to share is a tendency toward pragmatism but this is misleading. Romney is not so much a pragmatist as a man of convenience; he will take whatever stance is easiest at a given time. Huntsman has held fast to his core values, but he has always placed priority on getting things done and achieving at least some of his objectives in a constructive manner even when it means working with the other side, as opposed to the Tea Party way of threatening to torch everything if you don't get exactly your way.


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09 Jan 2012, 12:59 pm

Huntsman has some saner positions but he can't be trusted all the same.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnBK3gM7ygM[/youtube]

New Hampshire should be interesting tomorrow. Romney is supposedly crashing but there most likely isn't enough time to change the outcome. Most polls had him at 40% before this weekend and falling steadily since then. If Romney somehow doesn't break 30%, it will be a major defeat for him imo. It will be interesting to see where his votes go if this scenario happens.

Lets not forget in 2008, Barack Obama was polling 14% ahead of Hilary Clinton in New Hampshire and lost.



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09 Jan 2012, 1:13 pm

Dammit. The small comfort is that at least under a Republican President, Democrats would push back at least a little bit on civil liberties abuses. At least on domestic social issues he is reasonable, and on economic issues there is no denying that he's gotten good results.


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09 Jan 2012, 2:42 pm

On top of that, Huntsman has some questionable associations to say the least. Member of the Council On Foreign Relations, supported by Henry Kissinger and Lady de Rothschild. While he said he's for "leaving" Afghanistan(apparently leaving means leaving 15,000 troops behind and a permanent basse), he's also for getting "tough" with Iran. Everything about him screams status quo. Him not hating gays is only small comfort

I hope more people find out about the NDAA and SOPA because these abominations should be a wake up call to a lot of the fence sitters out there. As far as protecting civil liberties, Ron Paul is the gold standard and stakes are far too great.



minervx
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11 Jan 2012, 7:09 pm

My predictions were mostly right. I was wrong about Santorum doing better than Gingrich, but the margin was small.

Huntsman only being able to gain 17% of the vote (in a state that he put all of his effort in), shows that there is no path to victory for him.



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11 Jan 2012, 7:54 pm

It's a 2 man race, Mitt Romney versus Ron Paul.



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11 Jan 2012, 8:24 pm

snapcap wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
snapcap wrote:
I predict Herman Cain is going to endorse Ron Paul before the SC primaries.


Right after Karl Rove and Dick Chaney. :lol:


Herman Cain to make an "unconventional endorsemnt"


What's he doing on MSNBC? Rupert must have decided definitively that Herman is persona non grata.



minervx
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12 Jan 2012, 12:56 am

androbot2084 wrote:
It's a 2 man race, Mitt Romney versus Ron Paul.


Not really. Ron Paul despite being in 2nd place offers less of a challenge to Romney.

Gingrich, Perry, and Santorum are dividing, as a Paul supporter would call it, the "neocon" vote.

Once 1 or 2 of them drop out from attrition, Ron Paul will continue to be a non-factor.



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12 Jan 2012, 1:33 am

minervx wrote:
Gingrich, Perry, and Santorum are dividing, as a Paul supporter would call it, the "neocon" vote.

Once 1 or 2 of them drop out from attrition, Ron Paul will continue to be a non-factor.

Perry is completely negligible, and in NH Paul got more votes than Santorum and Gingrich combined.


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