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ASPartOfMe
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24 Aug 2017, 3:03 pm

Quote:
Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Since the issuance of the special advisory at 1800 UTC, data from a
dropsonde released by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated
that Harvey's central pressure has dropped to 976 mb. However, the
plane has not measured winds stronger than what was observed by the
previous Air Force flight (although the NOAA P3 is flying a
research mission at a nonstandard level). For now, the initial
intensity will remain 75 kt pending data from another Air Force
flight this evening.

Harvey's initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. A strengthening
mid-level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to push
Harvey northwestward by tonight, and a northwest or north-northwest
motion should continue up until landfall. However, a stronger
mid-level high centered over the western United States is forecast
to cause Harvey to slow down considerably and stall near or just
inland of the Texas coast by days 3 and 4. After that time, the
track models have trended toward showing Harvey moving slowly
eastward by day 5, but it's too early to know if the center will
remain over land or re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The track guidance is very tightly clustered for the first 36-48
hours, which covers the period of landfall, but then there is much
greater spread in the models after 48 hours when Harvey is forecast
to slow down. Such guidance is usually an indication that the
cyclone will move very little, which is reflected in the official
forecast.

Harvey remains in an environment for further strengthening.
Vertical shear is low, and the hurricane will be moving over a warm
eddy of relatively higher oceanic heat content within the next
12-24 hours. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for
additional intensification at least for the next 24 hours, with
Harvey expected to attain major hurricane strength on Friday.
There may be some fluctuations in intensity up until landfall due to
the possibility of an eyewall replacement or cooling of the shallow
shelf waters of Texas, but regardless Harvey is forecast to reach
the coast as a major hurricane. The intensity forecast after 48
hours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey
moves into Texas. If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent
model trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to
maintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its
circulation remaining over water. For that reason, the updated NHC
intensity forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm on days 3
through 5, but there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this
part of the forecast.

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track
of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All
locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should
be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should
be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first
arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next
Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.



The big problem with Harvey is it won't hit and then leave because it will be blocked. It is just going meander around for days dropping massive amounts of rain


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Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 24 Aug 2017, 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jrjones9933
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24 Aug 2017, 3:09 pm

There will be floods


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kitesandtrainsandcats
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24 Aug 2017, 3:18 pm

Oh dear. I don't want people getting hurt.
This Earth winds map is interesting, to me at least.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 22.97,1488
Hurricane winds take up a pretty fair chunk of the Gulf.


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ASPartOfMe
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25 Aug 2017, 1:07 am

As of 1AM Central Daylight Time Harvey has strenthened to a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105MPH. Harvey is traveling over warm water favorable for continued strengthening.


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How can Autism be trendy and a popular insult at the same time?

Recovering from tongue cancer and suspected Ramsey Hunt Syndrome (Ear Shingles), somewhat verbal.
Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity


kitesandtrainsandcats
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25 Aug 2017, 1:10 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
As of 1AM Central Daylight Time Harvey has strenthened to a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105MPH. Harvey is traveling over warm water favorable for continued strengthening.
Ahh crap. :(


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Tim_Tex
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25 Aug 2017, 2:07 am

They're saying Cat 3 before landfall. I am in the zone where we will probably get tropical storm-force winds, and ~15" of rain.

Having been through Allison, I can say Harvey is nothing to mess with. At least the HEB (local grocery store) by my house wasn't a madhouse.


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ASPartOfMe
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25 Aug 2017, 8:14 am

Tim_Tex wrote:
They're saying Cat 3 before landfall. I am in the zone where we will probably get tropical storm-force winds, and ~15" of rain.

Having been through Allison, I can say Harvey is nothing to mess with. At least the HEB (local grocery store) by my house wasn't a madhouse.


Sustained winds at 110 MPH and still strengthening.

Even away from the coast and the significant wind and storm surge damage there 15 to 25+ inches of rain is almost unfathomable but as Tim_Tex said Texas has had all to much experience with humoungous rains.

Be alert for flooding rains on the Lousiana coast including New Orleans also.


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How can Autism be trendy and a popular insult at the same time?

Recovering from tongue cancer and suspected Ramsey Hunt Syndrome (Ear Shingles), somewhat verbal.
Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
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kitesandtrainsandcats
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25 Aug 2017, 9:08 am

Tim_Tex wrote:
At least the HEB (local grocery store) by my house wasn't a madhouse.

Oh, that brings this to mind; though written during blizzard season the power outage thing holds true for hurricanes and severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
And it is my habit to use 3 references.

Milk and bread are actually pretty terrible survival foods
By Drew Harwell January 26, 2015
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... and-bread/
Quote:
This mass accumulation of dairy and dough has become an American snowstorm tradition. The only problem: Milk and bread are pretty bad survival foods. That milk will die fast if your refrigerator loses power, and bread can only offer so much nutrition during its short expiration date.


SHOP SMART
Eggs, milk, and bread are the worst things to stockpile before a blizzard
https://qz.com/601267/eggs-milk-and-bre ... -blizzard/
Quote:
But here’s what you know, emergency preparedness shoppers: Milk will go bad if left unrefrigerated. What will you do if the power goes out for too long? Instead, pick up bottled water and powdered milk. Powdered milk has a longer shelf life, and doesn’t need to be refrigerated.

And although some may not refrigerate their eggs, most Americans do—and eggs too will perish if you’re stuck without a working refrigerator for more than two hours, according to consumer guidelines from the US Food and Drug Administration. Pick up peanut butter or canned tuna instead. They both have protein and healthy fats (you could even splurge and get tuna stored in olive oil), as well as longer shelf lives. Pairs well with crackers.

Bread, on the other hand, will be fine if you leave it out and the electricity’s gone. But it has almost no nutritional value. Canned beans, vegetables, and soup are better, tastier options—and you will still be able to warm them up on a gas stove if your power goes out, or even eat some cold.

Finally, if you’re a snacker, keep nuts and dried fruit handy for a quick energy and fiber boost. Granola is good too, just pick a variety that’s higher in protein and lower in sugar. It’s all preferable to plain ol’ toast, anyway.


The Art and Science of Stocking Up for a Storm
by Rebecca Rupp
http://theplate.nationalgeographic.com/ ... r-a-storm/
Quote:
Quick: The weather outside is frightful and the National Weather Service says it’s going to get even worse. You’ve got 24 hours notice. What do you rush to the store to buy?

What leaped immediately to my mind was wine and cookies. But most of us, it turns out, are less frivolous.
...
Psychologists trot out a list of reasons for our universal pre-storm food panic attacks. Our drive to stockpile may stem from an attempt to feel in control in the face of an uncontrollable situation, such as approaching and unavoidable horrible weather. Or our primal instincts may go on red alert when confronted with a mass descent on grocery stores: the possibility of scarce resources may inspire us to compete for dwindling supplies of food.

On the other hand, purchases of milk and bread —both perishable items and lousy survival picks, especially if the power is prone to go out, may be a misplaced form of optimism. Pulling these off the shelves may be a version of an encouraging mental pat on the back, a way of telling ourselves that whatever’s heading our way isn’t going to last all that long. At least not long enough to spoil milk.

Yet another argument is that milk, bread, and eggs are, well, comforting. They’re the foods your mom served up when you were a little kid in bed with a cold. Milk, bread, and eggs, on some emotional level, make us feel good—which may be why we think we need them before heading out to shovel a driveway buried three feet under.


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ASPartOfMe
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25 Aug 2017, 3:14 pm

National Hurricane Center Hurricane Harvey Page

Hurricane Harvey is now a category 3 storm which is considered a major hurricane.

...MAJOR HURRICANE HARVEY BEARING DOWN ON THE TEXAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 96.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

Harvey still has not slowed down, and the initial estimate is
325/9 kt. Based on the forecast track, Harvey is expected to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast tonight. After that, the
track models insist that the hurricane will slow down considerably
during the next 24 hours, and it is likely to move very little
between 36 and 120 hours. In fact, there has been a somewhat
notable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing
Harvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. As a result, the NHC track forecast has been
pulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas
coast through the middle of next week. This slow motion only
exacerbates the heavy rainfall and flooding threat across southern
and southeastern Texas.

Harvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has
before landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at
major hurricane strength. Gradual weakening is anticipated after
the center moves inland, but Harvey's slow motion will keep a
significant portion of its circulation over water, which may slow
the weakening rate. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast leans
closer to the global model guidance instead of the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which seems to weaken Harvey too fast. Harvey
could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey will make landfall tonight, bringing life-threatening
storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas
coast. Tropical-storm-force winds have moved onshore in portions of
the warning areas and conditions will continue to deteriorate as
the eye of Harvey approaches the middle Texas coast tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.


_________________
How can Autism be trendy and a popular insult at the same time?

Recovering from tongue cancer and suspected Ramsey Hunt Syndrome (Ear Shingles), somewhat verbal.
Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity


Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 25 Aug 2017, 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

kitesandtrainsandcats
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25 Aug 2017, 3:34 pm

Oh boy, the day is getting 'interesting'.


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ASPartOfMe
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25 Aug 2017, 7:20 pm

kitesandtrainsandcats wrote:
Oh boy, the day is getting 'interesting'.


BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY APPROACHING THE COAST BETWEEN PORT
ARANSAS AND PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 96.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


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How can Autism be trendy and a popular insult at the same time?

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NightEclipse
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25 Aug 2017, 7:21 pm

I can honestly say that even though I'm in Louisiana, a little rain and wind isn't going to hurt me. Texas, however...good luck.


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26 Aug 2017, 12:01 am

So far, only 2" of rain here and a bit breezy


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ASPartOfMe
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26 Aug 2017, 12:53 am

Harvey makes landfall in Texas as Category 4 storm, destructive winds and ‘catastrophic’ flooding expected

Quote:
Harvey made landfall as an extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane at 11 p.m. Friday between Port Aransas and Port O’Connor, Texas. Packing 130 mph winds, the storm became the first major hurricane, rated Category 3 or higher (on the 1-5 Saffir-Simpson intensity scale), to strike U.S. soil in 12 years.

At 11 p.m. Friday, Harvey was centered about 30 miles east-northeast of Corpus Christi, tracking toward the northwest at 8 mph. A weather station at Aransas Pass – northeast of Corpus Christi and within storm’s eyewall, reported sustained winds up to 111 mph and gusts to 131 mph in the previous hour. In Rockport, Tex., the National Weather Service logged reports indicating “numerous structures destroyed”, and “buildings collapsed with people trapped inside”. The full extent of the damage will not be known until daylight.



BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...HARVEY MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
COPANO BAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 97.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ROCKPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM S OF VICTORIA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

Storm Chaser Jeff Piotrowski in Rockport,Tx


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How can Autism be trendy and a popular insult at the same time?

Recovering from tongue cancer and suspected Ramsey Hunt Syndrome (Ear Shingles), somewhat verbal.
Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity


Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 26 Aug 2017, 2:14 am, edited 3 times in total.

Kiprobalhato
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26 Aug 2017, 1:04 am

"harvey" is not at all a threatening name.


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