Hurricane Irma
ASPartOfMe
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31 Aug 2017, 4:39 pm
Still a very far away from land but definitely something to keep an eye on.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall
convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to
rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB
support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt
increase from yesterday at this time.
Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement
cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the
eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for
this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment
for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles
and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast
intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend,
Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to
be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be
strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC
prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line
with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional
hurricane models at that time.
Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt.
There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the
hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the
next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. At
long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the
strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south
differences in the global models. I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
Fogman
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ASPartOfMe
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02 Sep 2017, 9:05 am
People are already posting doomsday scenarios on social media based on a couple of model runs that show an event that has never happened before. PLEASE IGNORE. One never says never but they have never happened before for a number of reasons.
The storm is still at least 5 days away from the Carrabian and at least a week from any potential American hit. That is too far away for any certainty. Anything from going to the Gulf of Mexico to the US East Coast to curving harmlessly out to sea is all within the realm of possibility. At this time out to sea is least likely, Gulf of Mexico second least likely, Southeast to mid-Atlantic coast most likely. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
We getting into the heart of hurricane season anyway so this weekend a 3 day holiday weekend in the US is a good time to stock up on nonperishable foods, and other supplies and make a plan of action.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
ASPartOfMe
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04 Sep 2017, 11:46 am
All the options including Irma going out to sea and everybody yelling "fake news" are still open but the Caribbean, Bahamas, Southeast US looks somewhat more likely. What is concerning is that while the models are still showing varying tracks they are consistently showing and extremely to historically intense storm. I would print out what is below now because power often fails during Hurricanes.
National Hurricane Center
Know where to go. If you are ordered to evacuate, know the local hurricane evacuation route(s) to take and have a plan for where you can stay. Contact your local emergency management agency for more information.
Put together a go-bag: disaster supply kit, including a flashlight, batteries, cash, first aid supplies, medications, and copies of your critical information if you need to evacuate
If you are not in an area that is advised to evacuate and you decide to stay in your home, plan for adequate supplies in case you lose power and water for several days and you are not able to leave due to flooding or blocked roads.
Make a family emergency communication plan.
Many communities have text or email alerting systems for emergency notifications. To find out what alerts are available in your area, search the Internet with your town, city, or county name and the word “alerts.”
Preparing Your Home
Hurricane winds can cause trees and branches to fall, so before hurricane season trim or remove damaged trees and limbs to keep you and your property safe.
Secure loose rain gutters and downspouts and clear any clogged areas or debris to prevent water damage to your property.
Reduce property damage by retrofitting to secure and reinforce the roof, windows and doors, including the garage doors.
Purchase a portable generator or install a generator for use during power outages. Remember to keep generators and other alternate power/heat sources outside, at least 20 feet away from windows and doors and protected from moisture; and NEVER try to power the house wiring by plugging a generator into a wall outlet.
Consider building a FEMA safe room or ICC 500 storm shelter designed for protection from high-winds and in locations above flooding levels.
Hurricane Watch
Hurricane watch = conditions possible within the next 48 hrs.
Steps to take:
Review your evacuation route(s) & listen to local officials.
Review the items in your disaster supply kit; and add items to meet the household needs for children, parents, individuals with disabilities or other access and functional needs or pets.
Hurricane Warning
Hurricane warning = conditions are expected within 36 hrs.
Steps to take:
Follow evacuation orders from local officials, if given.
Check-in with family and friends by texting or using social media.
Follow the hurricane timeline preparedness checklist, depending on when the storm is anticipated to hit and the impact that is projected for your location.
What to do when a hurricane is 6 hours from arriving
If you’re not in an area that is recommended for evacuation, plan to stay at home or where you are and let friends and family know where you are.
Close storm shutters, and stay away from windows. Flying glass from broken windows could injure you.
Turn your refrigerator or freezer to the coldest setting and open only when necessary. If you lose power, food will last longer. Keep a thermometer in the refrigerator to be able to check the food temperature when the power is restored.
Turn on your TV/radio, or check your city/county website every 30 minutes in order to get the latest weather updates and emergency instructions.
What to do when a hurricane is 6-18 hours from arriving
Turn on your TV/radio, or check your city/county website every 30 minutes in order to get the latest weather updates and emergency instructions.
Charge your cell phone now so you will have a full battery in case you lose power.
What to do when a hurricane is 18-36 hours from arriving
Bookmark your city or county website for quick access to storm updates and emergency instructions.
Bring loose, lightweight objects inside that could become projectiles in high winds (e.g., patio furniture, garbage cans); anchor objects that would be unsafe to bring inside (e.g., propane tanks); and trim or remove trees close enough to fall on the building.
Cover all of your home’s windows. Permanent storm shutters offer the best protection for windows. A second option is to board up windows with 5/8” exterior grade or marine plywood, cut to fit and ready to install.
What to do when a hurricane is 36 hours from arriving/b]
Turn on your TV or radio in order to get the latest weather updates and emergency instructions.
Build or restock your emergency preparedness kit. Include food and water sufficient for at least three days, medications, a flashlight, batteries, cash, and first aid supplies.
Plan how to communicate with family members if you lose power. For example, you can call, text, email or use social media. Remember that during disasters, sending text messages is usually reliable and faster than making phone calls because phone lines are often overloaded.
Review your evacuation plan with your family. You may have to leave quickly so plan ahead.
Keep your car in good working condition, and keep the gas tank full; stock your vehicle with emergency supplies and a change of clothes.
[b]After a Hurricane
Listen to local officials for updates and instructions.
Check-in with family and friends by texting or using social media.
Return home only when authorities indicate it is safe.
Watch out for debris and downed power lines.
Avoid walking or driving through flood waters. Just 6 inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of fast-moving water can sweep your vehicle away.
Avoid flood water as it may be electrically charged from underground or downed power lines and may hide dangerous debris or places where the ground is washed away.
Photograph the damage to your property in order to assist in filing an insurance claim.
Do what you can to prevent further damage to your property, (e.g., putting a tarp on a damaged roof), as insurance may not cover additional damage that occurs after the storm.
When there is no hurricane: Make a hurricane plan
Know your hurricane risk. Talk to your local emergency management agency.
Make an emergency plan.
Sign up for alerts and warnings
Make a Family Communication plan
Plan shelter options
Know your evacuation route
Build or restock your basic disaster supplies kit, including food and water, a flashlight, batteries, chargers, cash, and first aid supplies.
Consider buying flood insurance.
Familiarize yourself with local emergency plans. Know where to go and how to get there should you need to get to higher ground or to evacuate.
Stay tuned to local wireless emergency alerts, TV, or radio for weather updates, emergency instructions, or evacuation orders.
Suggestions by the Meteorologist who "talked through" South Florida during Category 5 Hurricane Andrew
2. Get a plastic sheet to line the tub. Then you can fill your tub with water without it leaking out. You'll use this to flush the toilet and for basic cleaning if the water goes out.
3. Have enough food on hand to eat for 7 days - food bars and other packaged food is good.
4. Buy a large number of Ziploc-like plastic bags - large and small. You'll use them to protect papers and other valuables AND you'll fill them 3/4 full of water and stuff the freezer full. Do that by midweek to be sure they are frozen when/if the power goes out over the weekend. It will keep the refrigerator colder. Do NOT set your fridge on the lowest setting.
5. Get a portable radio that receives AM and FM. NOAA radio is good, but doesn't get you information on evacuations and other instructions. Get batteries.
6. Get LED flashlights and/or lanterns. They run forever on fewer batteries. But you still need plenty of extra batteries.
7. Get large plastic bags. They are invaluable for keeping valuable things dry if you have a leak.
8. Get large plastic boxes. If you put your valuables, photos, and papers in plastic bags inside the boxes, they will likely be okay.
9. Get plastic sheeting and plenty of duct tape.
10. Do your laundry this week!
Now is the time to review these lists and THINK. What are you going to do if the storm comes? I would take action on getting supplies now. There is nothing on the lists that you can't keep and use.
Hurricane Irma is strengthening and on an ominous path. Full preparation should be underway in the northern Leeward Islands and will be needed very soon in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern D.R./Haiti, and the Bahamas.
In Florida, due to the large number of people that may have to prepare, good sense says to do it early. It is impossible to know how bad the hit will be, but all of the evidence points to a significant threat. TODAY is the day to begin the preparation process.[/b]
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
ASPartOfMe
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04 Sep 2017, 7:51 pm
Florida has declared a state of emergency and the computer modeling has continued to show a storm of historic intensity and the storm near or close to Florida.
Hurricane Irma will be larger than the Peninsula of Florida, so on any of the most likely tracks, the entire width of the state will feel the storm. The parts near where the center goes will get the worst, however, and we won't know where that is until we get much closer to the event.
On the current schedule, winds will start picking up in South Florida Friday afternoon and evening, later on the southwest coast and in the Lower Keys. This means that preps will have to be completed Friday morning, and to be safe, think about being ready by Thursday night on the southeast coast.
People in Southeast Florida - Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach - should imagine Hurricane Wilma at a MINIMUM. Many things can change between now and Saturday, but the odds at this point favor at least that type of storm. Some areas may well get a drastically stronger storm than Wilma was when it hit Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and WPB, but we don't know where that might be. It's just too early.
There is the possibility of an extreme storm in the Keys an in some part of the Peninsula.
We have plenty of time to prepare. If the storm forecast continues to show a direct impact in Florida, evacuations will be ordered and there will be a frenzy in the stores. Take care of things now that everybody has to do - get gas, get supplies, get prescriptions, and get cash. You'll have time for other physical preps this week.
My previous post contains a checklist of the minimum supplies you need. Attached is a list from Brevard County Emergency Management with ADDITIONAL recommended supplies. (Though I recommend 7 days of food and water.)
Now is a good time to get in touch with your friends and neighbors to be sure everybody is paying attention and doing the right thing. Also, think about elderly and electricity-dependent people you know. They may need help this week if the storm tracks as it looks most likely.
More as we know more... but don't wait.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
04 Sep 2017, 8:11 pm
Oh. Look. Another global warming hurricane will destroy the homes of poor people.
I honestly don't understand why some idiots still don't believe in man-made global warming.
Just kidding. I totally understand. Corporate propaganda works!
_________________
Synthetic carbo-polymers got em through man. They got em through mouse. They got through, and we're gonna get out.
-Roostre
READ THIS -> https://represent.us/
ASPartOfMe
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Age: 66
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Location: Long Island, New York
04 Sep 2017, 8:40 pm
Irma is a rapidly intensifying strong category 4 hurricane
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.0W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
Winds are up 10 MPH since last advisory
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
ASPartOfMe
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Location: Long Island, New York
05 Sep 2017, 7:41 am
Irma is a category 5 hurricane the highest catagory there is. Sustained winds(not gusts) are 175MPH
Hurricane Irma Special Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity of Irma.
NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have recently
measured peak flight-level winds of around 170 kt and SFMR winds
of around 150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has
been increased to 150 kt, making Irma an extremely dangerous
category 5 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is still
possible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next
couple of days due to eyewall replacement cycles.
No change was made to the previous track or wind radii forecast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as
an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by
life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings
are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations
should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are
expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.
2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning
tomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical-
storm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early
tomorrow.
3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later
this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Irma and listen to advice given by officials.
4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct
impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
05 Sep 2017, 8:47 am
First, we destroy them with imperialism. Then, we destroy them with global warming.
We Westerners need to stop destroying the Caribbean already!
_________________
Synthetic carbo-polymers got em through man. They got em through mouse. They got through, and we're gonna get out.
-Roostre
READ THIS -> https://represent.us/
ASPartOfMe
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05 Sep 2017, 10:14 am
If you are in those Islands listed above immediate preparations need to made. Put heavy objects in front of doors. Do not open windows to relieve pressure that is an old wives tale. Roofs lift and residences collapse when wind gets in the residences. If your residence is collapsing go to a closet or bathroom and put a mattress over your head.
As for Florida it now seems likely large areas of the state will be impacted in some way. Where or how much is too early to tell. The Storm interacting with Cuba might weaken the storm before affecting Florida which sucks for Cubans. Anybody from the eastern Gulf coast to the Carolinas still needs to keep a close eye on this as the storm might head to your regions after hitting or passing near Florida.
The discussion below is South Florida centric
This does not mean that Irma will necessarily be a Cat 5 when it gets to the vicinity of Florida, but it could be. In any case, Irma is demanding our full attention.
We have confidence that a large powerful hurricane will move near or across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, just north of the D.R. and Haiti, through the Bahamas, and then into the waters southeast of the Florida Keys on Saturday. At some point over the weekend, the steering currents are expected to change rather abruptly, causing Irma to slow down and turn to the right in the direction of Florida. Exactly where and when that turn occurs is unknown at this time, but we have confidence that turn will happen.
The best scenario, of course, is that it will happen early in the weekend, and the core of Irma – with likely Cat 4 winds – will stay east of the state and go out to sea. There is also some chance that the mountainous islands in the Caribbean might disrupt the circulation, though no computer forecast shows that happening in a significant way at this time.
On the other hand, many possible tracks bring the worst of a large, powerful hurricane over or near the Keys and up the peninsula over the weekend. The circulation of strong winds is expected to be wide enough that both coasts of the state would be affected, unless that best-case scenario or a track offshore to the east transpires.
Winds too dangerous for putting up shutters or moving boats might start in South Florida as early as Friday evening.
Given the extremely large number of people that would be impacted by any track over the state, early preparation is essential. It will be impossible for everyone who will need supplies to get them at the end of the week.
Attached, once again, is a good shopping list from Brevard County – except that I recommend food and water for AT LEAST SEVEN days and an AM/FM portable radio with plenty of batteries. Also, I suggest only LED flashlights and lanterns with lots of batteries. Though LED lights will last a long time.
Here are a few other tips, which I’ll repeat and add to as we get closer:
1. You can order supplies from Amazon today and have them delivered on Thursday at the latest. Local stores might be out of good LED flashlights and lanterns, for example. Have at least one flashlight for every person in your family, and ideally have a lantern or two for general lighting.
2. Take photos today or tomorrow of every room, every piece of electronics, and everything valuable. Upload the pictures to the cloud – Dropbox, Microsoft Cloud, iCloud, Google Drive, etc. – before the storm.
3. Also take photos of key documents and upload them as well. You can do that today.
4. Save your contacts in your phone to the cloud. If you don’t know how to do that, frame grab your screen or have someone take photos of your contacts with their phone and email or text the pictures back to you to a friend. Don’t take a chance on losing your contacts if something happens to your phone.
5. Secure your photographs and albums in double plastic bags.
6. Plastic bags and duct tape are your friends. You can’t buy to many of them. Put documents in gallons-size (or larger) Ziploc bags. Put larger items in double large trash bags cocooned so the opening of the first bag is in the bottom of the second bag. Put some clothes in plastic bags in case you get a roof leak. Duct tape bags closed. Put valuables on a high shelf in a closet.
7. Think now about where you are going to park your car. A parking garage is ideal. Outside in a low-lying area or under a tree is the worst. Think about all of the cars you’ve seen ruined in storms because people made bad choices about where they parked the car before the storm. When we know the storm track, we’ll have a better idea which side of a building will give the best protection. Next to a building on the downwind side gives you the best chance if you have to leave your car outside.
8. Do your laundry and wash your dishes before the storm.
9. You dishwasher is an excellent “safe” in your house if you need someplace to put valuables. Your washer and dryer can offer good protection as well. These could be good places to put your bagged-up photos, for example.
10. Fill Ziploc bags ¾ full of water and stuff them in your freezer to fill up the space. The less air you have in the freezer, the longer your refrigerator will stay cold. Do NOT turn your refrigerator to any lower setting than normal – that can damage the unit.
11. Choose a friend or relative out of town to be the contact point for your family or group of friends. After a storm, it is always easier to get a call out of the area than within the storm zone. Be sure everybody has the out-of-town number and make a plan to check in ASAP after the storm.
12. If you live in a high rise, be sure you know what the procedures are going to be in the building. Will the building be evacuated? Will the water continue to work? Will elevators work? What is on a generator? If you can stay in the building (if it’s away from the water) find an interior hallway on a low floor where you can set up camp during the storm. It will not be safe to be on a high floor or near windows, even with modern hurricane impact windows. A hallway surrounded by concrete is your best bet.
13. Think about what you will sit on if you are in a hallway or other safe spot for a number of hours – maybe 12 hours or more. Consider comfortable folding chairs. Take food to your safe spot. Have books or other non-electronic amusements, including for the kids.
14. Do NOT count on your cellphone for communications. When Harvey hit Texas as a Cat 4, it knocked out the mobile phone system. In addition, your battery may run down and you may have no ability to charge it. In any case, it’s essential you have a portable AM/FM radio that you can leave on so the entire family can hear what’s going on with the storm.
15. Most importantly, be sure you know a safe place where you and your family can ride out the storm, if it comes. This is the most critical decision you can make today. There almost certainly will be evacuations ordered for parts of Florida. If you live near the water, put together the food, clothes, valuable items, and important papers you’ll take with you NOW. Leave as early as possible. There will be a crush on the road and you may not find a hotel in the entire state of Florida.
We are all hoping that Irma turns early or otherwise weakens or stays away, but the odds don’t favor that at this point. The hurricane is most likely to have some effect on a significant part of the state, and damaging impact on the lives of many people. Therefore, we are confronted with an undisputable fact: What you do before the storm has everything to do with how you and your family will fare after the wind stops blowing. Today, you are in control. Take action calmly but resolutely. Don’t set yourself up to be a victim. Your full attention is required immediately.
A more weather buff/geeky type write up below
The satellite image above is as textbook as you can get for a category 5 hurricane. The outflow is well developed and mature, leading to the storm being able to insulate itself from any outside environmental conditions. Irma is at a point where influences like dry air or weak shear are no longer a factor as the hurricane is basically creating it’s own atmospheric environment. Meanwhile, the central dense overcast is expanding and intensifying with intense cold cloud tops around an eye that is now completely cleared out. This is a complete, well established warm core low engine, and at this point the only disruption in it’s way are the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles Islands of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba, and the Bahamas. That’s not a statement any meteorologist wants to make.
Irma will likely fluctuate in strength over the next 5 days between Category 4 and 5 status due to eye wall replacement cycles, however when you get winds over 150 mph, the Category status is not as important as the impacts are just as devastating no matter the designation. Here's a breakdown of potential near-term impacts:
Storm Surge Potential:
Irma will bring a 7 to 12 foot storm surge to the British and US Virgin Islands first, followed by a 2 to 4 foot storm surge over northern Puerto Rico, and 1 to 2 foot storm surge over southern Puerto Rico and St. Croix through the next 36 hours. Obviously if Irma ends up slightly further south and hits Puerto Rico straight on, the storm surge would be significantly higher, likely matching the impacts seen in the Virgin Islands.
Rainfall:
Irma is likely to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts up to 12 inches from the northern Leeward Islands through Puerto Rico.
Long Range:
Hurricane Irma is expected to track to the north of Puerto Rico and towards the southern Bahamas by the end of this week, and then towards the coastal waters just south of Florida by this weekend. From there, Irma will be caught in a weakness (trough) between the strong western Atlantic ridge to the east and the ridge over the Central Plains and Rockies. In this weakness, an upper level low will form leading to the Irma to turn north. The question now is when does that turn happen? WeatherOptics meteorologists pinpoint a potential track between the Panhandle of Florida /eastern Gulf of Mexico, to the east coast of Florida / the southeast US coastline for potential landfall. This will all depend on when Hurricane Irma feels the influence of this weakness in the upper level pattern.
While Irma dominates the news, we may be tracking Jose in the near future as well. This tropical wave about 1,000 miles to the west-southwest of Cabo Verde Islands is gradually becoming better organized. The outflow circulation is slightly inhibiting the development of this tropical wave, but that factor will no longer be an issue in 12 to 24 hours. With favorable atmospheric conditions in place, the only obstacle for this tropical wave is perhaps the influence of upwelling from Irma leading to slightly cooler sea surface temperatures to the east of the Lesser Antilles and Leeward Islands. Otherwise, a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Jose is likely over the next 48 to 66 hours. This tropical wave is moving to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Finally, an area of low pressure has developed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is showing signs of development. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for development as the low pressure system meanders off the Mexican coast. However, the upper level winds are now expected to force this tropical disturbance to move to the west or west-northwest over the next 5 days and may end up over central coastal Mexico before developing. Either way, intense heavy rainfall is likely.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,415
Location: Long Island, New York
05 Sep 2017, 10:29 am
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
05 Sep 2017, 10:40 am
Not to mention tge earthquake and decades of corruption.
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Who’s better at math than a robot? They’re made of math!
Now proficient in ChatGPT!
05 Sep 2017, 10:43 am
Irma is now the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin that hasn't entered the Gulf or the Caribbean Sea.
If it makes landfall in FL as a Cat 5, it will be fourth Cat 5 landfall in the U.S.
_________________
Who’s better at math than a robot? They’re made of math!
Now proficient in ChatGPT!
