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ASPartOfMe
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05 Sep 2017, 11:57 am

Jose is now a Tropical Storm and in the general location Irma was and is expected to become a hurricane. Areas being affected or watching Irma especially the Leeward Islands need to keep an eye out on Jose as well as Bermuda and up the east coast of the US.


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naturalplastic
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05 Sep 2017, 7:05 pm

What year was it?

Like ten years ago there was that one season in which we had hurricanes coming down like off an assembly line one after another. The following year turned out to have a rather quiet season.

This is shaping up to be like that busy season.



ASPartOfMe
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05 Sep 2017, 7:10 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
What year was it?

Like ten years ago there was that one season in which we had hurricanes coming down like off an assembly line one after another. The following year turned out to have a rather quiet season.

This is shaping up to be like that busy season.


In 2005 there were 27 hurricanes including Katrina.


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07 Sep 2017, 11:25 am

National Hurricane Center wrote:
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 50.6W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

ose is developing an eye. Convection remains very symmetric around
the center, and a well-defined mid-level eye has been evident in
microwave imagery throughout the morning. Outflow remains well
established in all quadrants, despite the close proximity of Irma
to the west, perhaps in part due to the small size of Jose. The
initial intensity has been held at 80 kt, based on the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB. However, the overall trend of
intensification is not likely to have ended, and Jose is still
forecast to become a major hurricane in about 24 h. After about 48
h, most of the intensity guidance indicates that Jose will begin to
weaken, but the extent of that weakening varies quite a bit, in
part due to uncertainty surrounding how much the shear from a
deep-layer trough to the north and Irma may affect Jose after it
passes the Leeward Islands. The official forecast is still close to
the HWRF for the first 36 h, and close to the intensity consensus,
IVCN, after that.

The initial motion remains 285/16 kt. Almost no change has been
made to the first 36 h of the forecast, and the hurricane is still
expected to continue west-northwestward, along the southern extent
of the subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, the global models
suggest that an approaching mid-latitude trough will cause the
ridge to retreat, causing Jose to turn more toward the northwest,
and eventually toward the north. Based on the lastest model runs,
this turn may happen a little later than previously expected. Thus,
the NHC official forecast has been nudged toward the west at days
3-5, and is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCX.


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07 Sep 2017, 5:57 pm

...JOSE BECOMES 3RD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC SEASON...


BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 201


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

It will affect the areas just hit by Irma. :(

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius


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“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman


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08 Sep 2017, 12:08 pm

National Hurricane Center wrote:

...JOSE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 57.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane, the first so far into Jose,
found the hurricane was much stronger than previously estimated. A
standard 90 percent reduction of the 146-kt peak flight-level wind
at 700 mb yields an intensity estimate of about 130 kt, which is
the basis for the initial intensity. In the short term, Jose is in a
fairly favorable environment. Although the SHIPS-diagnosed shear is
near 20 kt, the hurricane is small enough that it has thus far
remained sheltered from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Irma to
the west. Internal dynamics will therefore most likely be the
driving factor of Jose's intensity for the next day or so. After
that time, all of the intensity guidance forecasts weakening,
perhaps assuming that eventually the shear will begin to affect the
hurricane. Due to the very high initial intensity of Jose, the
intensity forecast is quite a bit higher than the model consensus,
even after adjusting for the initial intensity. However, the NHC
forecast still follows the model trend of steady weakening beyond 24
hours.

The aircraft data also indicated that the center of Jose is a
little farther south than previously estimated. Because of that,
the NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly south and west of
the previous one. Otherwise, there is no significant change to
the track forecast, and Jose is still expected to turn northwest
before reaching the Leeward Islands on Saturday, as the subtropical
ridge begins to retreat eastward. There is fairly good agreement
between the global models for the first 48 h. After that, it is
still unclear if Jose will begin to move east with an approaching
mid-latitude mid-level trough, or if it will remain trapped in
light steering flow. As a course of least regret, my forecast
splits the difference between these scenarios and shows a slow
northeastward motion at day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.3N 57.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.8N 59.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.7N 61.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 19.0N 62.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 20.6N 65.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 24.2N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 26.4N 68.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 28.0N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$


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08 Sep 2017, 5:18 pm

national hurricane center wrote:
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

Jose's satellite presentation continues to impress. A nearly
perfectly symmetric CDO surrounds a clear eye, and there is still
no sign of weakening due to shear associated with the outflow of
Hurricane Irma. Since the earlier reconnaissance flight, Dvorak
intensity estimates have actually increased, however they are still
lower than what the plane found. The initial intensity has been
held at 130 kt, out of respect of the earlier in-situ observations,
but given the current cloud pattern, this could be conservative.
Another reconnaissance flight this evening will give a better
estimate of the intensity.

Internal dynamics are still expected to be the primary factor in
the intensity for the next 12 hours or so. After that, all of the
intensity guidance continues to show weakening throughout the
forecast, though it is worth noting that Jose has already exceeded
all previous forecasts. The NHC forecast continues to follow the
trend of the models, but is a little above the consensus for most
of the forecast period. Given the small size of the inner-core of
Jose, if the shear does finally increase, weakening could occur at a
faster rate than indicated.

The global models have come into very good agreement on the track
of Jose for the next 2 days, and there is finally a high degree of
confidence in that part of the forecast. The eye of Jose should
turn toward the northwest tonight and pass just east of Barbuda on
Saturday. Beyond 48 h, the extent to which an approaching mid-level
trough will cause the hurricane to turn toward the north, and
eventually toward the east still varies from model to model, however
the model spread has decreased. Both the GFS and ECMWF show Jose
being left behind by the trough at some point and trapped in light
steering flow. The forecast continues to split these two models,
and is very close to the previous official forecast.


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“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman


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09 Sep 2017, 12:07 pm

Let's see....

We have four hurricanes, and an earthquake in Mexico....

What next?

Our drinking water turning to blood?

Pestilence?

The firstborn in each family suddenly croaking?

Twenty four hour darkness?

Frogs falling from the sky?



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12 Sep 2017, 12:12 pm

It is now a category 1 and is expected to do a loop around the Caribbean. After that sometime this weekend the meteorologists will have a better idea if there will be any threat at all to the US east coast.


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14 Sep 2017, 4:06 pm

Bryan Norcross Weather Channel Senior Hurricane specialist wrote:
A quick Thursday update on HURRICANE JOSE and the TROPICS: The storm has made its loop and is slowly beginning its move north. Florida is NOT threatened by Jose, though there is a potential threat from coastal North Carolina to New England. The storm will move into the general vicinity of eastern North Carolina this weekend, and then continue up the coast until the middle of next week.

The edge of the cone just touches North Carolina this afternoon, and is just off the Delmarva and New Jersey coast. This means that the most likely tracks for the center of the storm will keep the worst weather offshore, but Jose will expand into a larger system as it moves north, so tracks on the left side of the cone would bring bad weather to the coast.

Jose is moving slowly at the moment, and will not be a fast-mover as it heads north. Since it will spend days off the coast, it will put a lot of energy in the ocean. Significant coastal effects could transpire, even if the center stays well offshore. Also, forecasts for storms when steering currents are weak are more difficult and subject to more change than in situations where the river of air carrying the hurricane is well established.

Because New England sticks out farther east than the coastal sections farther south, but is beyond the 5-day cone, interests there should stay up to date on refined forecasts through the weekend and into next week.

The fly in the ointment is a very strong high-pressure system that is forecast to move across southern Canada next week. If it noses north of Jose before the storm has a chance to turn into the North Atlantic, it could be deflected toward the coast. But that would not likely happen until next week. Recall that it was an unusually strong and persistent high-pressure system over the Atlantic that allowed Irma to make it all the way to the Caribbean islands and Florida.

Elsewhere in tropics: Far across the ocean there is a disturbance that might have a chance to make it across the Atlantic. It’s too early to know if it might be a threat to land. It’s a minimum of 9 or 10 days out. Its companion system is expected to turn harmlessly north in the open Atlantic.


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“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman


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15 Sep 2017, 4:39 pm

Ok here we go again

Bryon Norcross - Senior Hurricane Specialist at the Weather Channel wrote:
Friday update on JOSE and other developments in the TROPICS: The short-term forecast for Jose is reasonably certain, and U.S. coastal impacts of one degree or the other are likely, but the longer term prospects and how it might impact the U.S. East Coast are very foggy.

The center of Jose will be approaching the North Carolina coastal waters Sunday night. The winds on the NORTH CAROLINA and VIRGINIA coast will increase through Sunday and Sunday night. The odds favor the center of Hurricane Jose staying offshore, but the area of strong winds is expanding, so sustained wind of 40 mph or more - mostly from the northeast - will be a short distance offshore, or possibly over the coast.

Coastal interests in the Mid Atlantic should closely monitor forecast updates. A slight jog to the west would make a significant difference in the weather at the coast. In addition, the wind off the ocean combined with the swells generated by the hurricane will raise the water level along the coast and in inland waters. High winds and significant storm surge is still a possibility.

Farther north from the DELMARVA Peninsula through the JERSEY SHORE to NEW ENGLAND, the situation is similar. A strong storm is going to be somewhere between well offshore and along the coastline. The effects will be like an extreme nor'easter. If it stays offshore, the effects will be mostly from the rising battering water at the coast. If it comes closer, the wind becomes a factor. Again, a slight difference in track, which cannot be forecast at this point, will make a big difference how windy and rainy it is at the coast.

Plan for the possibility of disruptive effects in and around NEW YORK CITY on Tuesday. The winds will likely start increasing early in the day, and become quite strong. Heavy rain is also possible, depending on track of Jose's center.

Because eastern New England sticks out, it appears more likely that Jose will have direct ocean and weather impacts there. Again, imagine a strong nor'easter with the wind picking up along the coast on Tuesday.

In the long run, Jose's track is impossible to know. A strong area of high pressure is forecast to slide east over Canada as Jose is heading north. If Jose moves relatively quickly, it will track out to the east after passing New England, and into the Atlantic.

If, however, Jose move a little slower, or the high slides a little faster, Jose might get blocked - stuck off the Northeast or New England coast - and make a loop. That would prolong the coastal effects, and could allow Jose to affect the coast more than once. Though that possibility is a week or more away.

On top of that, a disturbance in the Atlantic just over a thousand miles east of the CARIBBEAN ISLANDS will likely develop into a tropical storm or hurricane. It is moving in the general direction of the islands so horribly affected by Irma. Following whatever happens there, we'll have to watch it's future track. Storms that threaten the U.S. sometimes come from that area.
The storm's distant future track is dependent on many things, including whether Jose gets trapped by the Canadian high. But that's a long way off and not worth thinking about right now.

I'm afraid we'll be watching to tropics carefully for the next couple of weeks... at least.


Atlantic Canada also needs to watch this.

This should not be nearly as strong as Harvey and Irma but it does not need to be to cause problems in this part of the country. The trees down south especially the palm trees bend easier and are smaller. The trees up this way when they come down cause more problems. On Long Island most of the wiring that carries electricity is above ground and vulnerable to being knocked down by trees and tree branches.


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“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman


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17 Sep 2017, 12:27 pm

national hurricane center wrote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JOSE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 71.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this
morning and found flight-level winds of 86 kt, SFMR surface
winds of 89 kt, and a minimum pressure of 967 mb. Based on these
data, the initial wind speed is raised to 80 kt for this advisory.
Even though the winds are stronger than earlier, the hurricane does
not have an improved appearance in satellite images. In fact, the
Air Force meteorologist onboard the aircraft mentioned that the
inner core of Jose is asymmetric and the overall appearance is
lopsided.

Jose is expected to be in an environment of strong southwesterly
wind shear while it is over the warm Gulf Stream waters during the
next couple of days. Although the shear is forecast to lessen
beyond that time, the hurricane will likely have crossed the north
wall of the Gulf Stream by then, where the waters are much cooler.
These environmental conditions favor a slow weakening trend during
the next several days, and that is reflected in the NHC intensity
forecast. It should be noted, however, that despite the expected
weakening, the models suggest that Jose's outer wind field will
expand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that move into
the mid-latitudes.

The hurricane is moving northward at 8 kt on the west side of a
subtropical ridge. This motion is expected to continue for 2 to 3
days while the steering pattern persists. Thereafter, a trough
currently over central Canada is expected to move eastward and
should cause Jose to turn to the northeast and east at a slow
forward speed in the 3- to 5-day time frame. The NHC track
forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous one,
mainly because of the more westward initial position.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a
westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.

2. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts
from Virginia northward to New England, and any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days. Tropical storm watches could be
required for a portion of this area later today.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.


This will be no Irma or Sandy but the areas near the coast from the mid Atlantic to New England do not dismiss Jose yet. Like with Irma the question is when will it turn right. Near Florida the turn was from West to North into Florida, for Jose the will be from North to East and out to sea. How close to the coast this happens will make a big difference.

This area often experiences 30-60MPH or tropical storm force winds during Nor'easters but noreasters often happen when the trees are barren. Now the trees have full foliage meaning they are more prone to being knocked down. So have your flashlights and batteries just in case.


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“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman


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17 Sep 2017, 5:40 pm

national hurricane center wrote:
KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts
from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. A tropical storm watch is now in
effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware
to southern New England during the next several days. Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total
accumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts,
including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. Based on the current
forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope. Any
deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring
heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long
Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation
were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river
flooding would increase.


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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity

“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman


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18 Sep 2017, 7:21 am

national hurricane center wrote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 71.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Satellite images indicate that Jose is losing some tropical
characteristics. The cloud pattern of the hurricane is asymmetric
with much of the central convection and convective bands confined to
the north of the center. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
have found that Jose is weaker, with maximum flight-level winds of
78 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 58 kt observed. Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt.

Jose should remain over warm Gulf Stream waters during the next 24
hours, but it will also be in an environment of strong
south-southwesterly shear, so little change in strength is expected
during that time. Shortly thereafter, the hurricane is forecast to
cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a
progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should
cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition,
which is now expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term
to account for the slightly lower initial wind speed.

The hurricane has been wobbling around, but the general motion has
been northward at 8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic
should continue to steer Jose northward at about the same forward
speed during the next day or two. Thereafter, a trough currently
over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in
the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out,
leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to
drift southward by the end of the forecast period. Only minor
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this
prediction lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm
warning has been issued for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from
Delaware to southern New England, where a tropical storm watch is in
effect.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days. Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long
Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast
Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the
risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the
left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread
rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and
New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban
flash flooding and some river flooding would increase.


Bryon Norcross wrote:
Jose will continue heading north off the East Coast, though coming close enough that Tropical Storm Watches are up from Delaware through the Jersey Shore, Long Island, and up to southeastern Massachusetts. A Watch means that winds over 40 mph are POSSIBLE. If the storm deviates only slightly to the west, the winds and torrential rains will move over the coast. In any case, high tides and dangerous ocean conditions will occur well before Jose is in the area.
Still, heavy rain with strong winds are expected in Long Island and coastal southeastern New England as early at tomorrow morning in advance of the arrival of the hurricane in the offshore waters. Beware of flooding and the possibility of tree damage from the gusty winds impacting the leafy trees. Normally when a strong nor’easter impacts the coast, there are no leaves on the trees. Significant erosion and overtopping of some dunes should be expected.


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19 Sep 2017, 2:43 pm

Bryan Norcross wrote:
HURRICANE JOSE will parallel the Delmarva and New Jersey coast today, keeping its strongest winds offshore, but it will come close enough to southeastern New England tomorrow to bring disruptive wind and rain to all coastal sections. Even though the strongest winds in the storm will be decreasing, the effects will be like a strong nor’easter, except that there are still leaves on the trees. That means that power outages are likely as trees and branches fall. Rain will spread ahead of the storm today.

The nasty weather will be very close to eastern Long Island as well. Be aware that a slight jog in the track would bring significantly more dangerous weather there as well.

Do NOT park your car under or near trees during the worst of the winds.


First 'feeder band" recently went through here with some squally rain and gusty winds. Only expecting a slight glancing blow here but will keep tracking.


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“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman


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22 Sep 2017, 2:07 pm

Bryan Norcross wrote:

“Jose will slowly wind down in the waters southeast of Cape Cod. The storm will continue to agitate the ocean and elevate the water levels along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast for the next few days”


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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity

“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman