Hurricane Maria
20 Sep 2017, 8:44 am
Those poor folks in the Caribbean, oh man. 
I don't know that I can exactly define what fair is but I'm pretty sure it doesn't look like this.
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20 Sep 2017, 8:53 am
It really sucks for many down there right now.
St. Thomas has been severely affected by both Irma and Maria. I would assume Tortola is, too.
I certainly hope the world community (and rich tourists) sees fit to provide a monumental amount of aid to these areas.
I believe the days of "hurricane parties" are over.
20 Sep 2017, 9:01 am
I mean if Starbucks can make over 21 billion dollars in sales between 09/2015 and 10/2016 there is income to spare in this country. Now, granted, Starbucks provides jobs, but, still ...
And if I didn't buy those couple $20 train and space books I want ...
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20 Sep 2017, 3:35 pm
After that, all indications are that Maria will turn north well offshore of Florida and possibly east of the rest of the Bahamas. There does not appear to be any threat to Florida from Maria.
Farther north, however, the future track remains in question. By the time Maria reaches near or offshore of North Carolina, the steering pattern will involve two systems late in the weekend or early next week. A high pressure system that slid east from Canada blocking the way north and out to sea for what was HURRICANE JOSE will come into play. That will remain in place to one degree or the other well into next week.
Jose has now been downgraded to a tropical storm, but still has a robust circulation. What’s left of Jose is expected to have weakened further by the time Maria is moving north, but still be near or offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast for the next several days trapped under that high.
If ex-Jose still has a decent circulation early next week, it would tend to kick Maria away from the coast, out from under the blocking high, and out to sea. If, however, Jose fizzles out or has moved out of the picture, the high might take over and deflect Maria close to or over the East Coast between North Carolina and southern New England. Eventually the high breaks down and Maria should get swept east next week, but the timing of all this is tricky, and it's too far in advance to pin down.
It appears that this will be another situation where the hurricane might slow or stall under a regime of light steering winds, at least for a bit, so forecasts will be low confidence.
Hopefully things will get clearer by the end of the week, but don’t bet on it. The potential threat from Maria to East Coast, if it develops, comes at from the beginning to the middle of next week, stretching from North Carolina to southeastern New England.
Island of Puerto Rico 'destroyed' by Hurricane Maria, officials say
Telecommunications throughout the island have "collapsed," Abner Gomez Cortes, executive director of Puerto Rico's office of emergency management and disaster administration, told ABC News.
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21 Sep 2017, 10:42 am
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017
...MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 69.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Flash flood emergencies continue in portions of Puerto Rico due
to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.
Catastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in
areas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should
continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these
life-threatening flooding conditions.
2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
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It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
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22 Sep 2017, 1:54 pm
Bryan Norcross Senior Hurricane specialist at the weather channel wrote:
“Friday update: HURRICANE MARIA is pounding the Turks and Caicos Islands with strong effects in the Southeastern Bahamas as well. The tropical tail of the storm is still producing heavy rain in Puerto Rico adding to the tragedy there. Today Maria will brush the Central Bahamas and then begin to pull away from land and make its turn to the north as it heads to a position off the Southeast U.S. by early in the week.
Maria is beginning to be affected by unfavorable upper-level winds, so gradual weakening is expected as it moves north. The ocean water is cooler – cooler than normal because Jose stirred it up. And the upper level winds will increasingly make the atmosphere less conducive to a strong hurricane. As it weakens, the storm will increase in size as it moves north, however, spreading its strong winds over a larger area.
Maria is not a threat to Florida and Georgia, except that strong swells will reach the coast. The threat of a direct impact on the U.S. coastline farther north is low, but certainly not zero. And, a large, slow-moving hurricane offshore can still cause significant coastal problems, including strong winds, elevated tides causing coastal flooding and beach erosion, and dangerous surf. Strong swells will arrive days before there is a noticeable effect on the weather.
The winds will start to increase on the North Carolina and Virginia coast on Tuesday, on the current schedule. How strong they get is an open question. Maria’s effects should impact the coastline through midweek before the storm is finally swept east around Friday.
TROPICAL STORM JOSE has morphed into a nor’easter-type storm, and is officially called Post Tropical Storm Jose. Its role in Maria’s track is limited. It does not appear that Jose will be strong enough or close enough to impart much steering to Maria directly, though the low pressure associated with Jose is providing a path to the north. Effectively, it is limiting the effect of the eastern end of the Canadian high-pressure area that might block Maria and deflect it toward the coast.
Exactly how the remnants of Jose move out of the picture - does it die in place or does it move off into the ocean - will affect the subtle steering the Canadian high pressure exerts on Maria. It may be nudged back toward the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coast a bit by the high before a strong dip in the jet stream picks it up and shoots it out to sea. That dip is the same one that will bring in cool weather as Maria moves away.
Forecasts for slow moving hurricanes generally have higher errors than storms tracking in well-established steering currents, so residents from eastern North Carolina to the Jersey Shore should stay informed until the track is certain – that is, whether it gets a nudge toward the coast and how much.”
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It is Autism Acceptance Month
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24 Sep 2017, 11:40 am
Maria is forecast to continue weakening, but is still expected to be a hurricane when it arrives in the coastal waters of North Carolina. The storm has grown larger – the eye is now about 35 miles across and the winds over 40 mph extend out nearly 200 miles on the west side of the storm, increasing the likelihood of the strong winds extending inland.
A notable aspect to this storm is going to be its slow motion – meaning the winds will seem to relentlessly blow off the ocean – when it tracks near North Carolina. Strong east to northeast winds are going to persist for two days or more on the Outer Banks and a good part of that time in the Tidewater of Virginia and the Delmarva. Persistent strong winds loosen trees and power poles and are more likely to cause outages, as we saw in Irma in South Florida.
The steering continues to be subtle and complex. Currently Maria is being steered north around the west end of the Atlantic high-pressure system into a gap cause by former-hurricane Jose. Jose is gone, but a slight weakness in the high persists. By Tuesday, however, the gap will fill and a Canadian high, which trapped Jose off the north coast last week, will briefly control the steering, pushing Maria toward the coast and slowing it down – much like Jose was affected off New England. The high keeps Maria near or over eastern North Carolina through much of Thursday when a dip in the jet stream comes along to scoop up Maria and fling it out into the Atlantic.
The precise strength and, therefore, influence of these weather systems is impossible to know, which adds uncertainty to the forecast. In addition, because the strongest winds will still be concentrated near the center of Maria, a slight jog one way or other will make a big difference in the strength of the winds at the coast.
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches are likely along the coast. Be ready for a long-duration wind event on the Outer Banks, the Sounds, and nearby areas
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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
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24 Sep 2017, 4:55 pm
...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 73.0W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North
Carolina.
2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
Carolina Outer Banks.
3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous
surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of
the week.
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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
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25 Sep 2017, 9:30 am
It will be breezy in eastern North Carolina today and become windy tonight or early tomorrow. Maria will move even more slowly when it reaches the coastal waters off the Outer Banks, however, which will make this an unusually long-duration wind event. Strong winds will blow from the east to northeast for 2 days or more, which increases the threat of tree damage, power outages, and sound-side storm surge. The peak winds are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night, decreasing fairly quickly through the afternoon on Thursday.
The persistent northeast wind will push water, especially from Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, as high as 2 to 4 feet above normally dry ground at high tide. Since the wind will persist through multiple tide cycles, the likelihood of storm surge flooding is increased. Pounding surf from the swells generated by Maria will continue on the ocean side of the Outer Banks and in the Mid Atlantic until well after the winds subside.
The storm has weakened a bit more quickly than forecast. Maria is looking frayed on the satellite as some dry air has wrapped into the circulation, and/or the cooler ocean water stirred up by former-hurricane Jose are starving the storm of some fuel. The weakening trend is expected to continue over the next few days as the center of Maria slides east of North Carolina before being swept out to sea late Thursday.
Maria’s large circulation will reach north into the Virginia Tidewater and the Delmarva Peninsula with winds gusting over 40 mph and some tidal flooding is possible.
Once Maria move out, we should get a break from the tropics for a bit as the far eastern Atlantic begins to slow down. In October, we start watching for developments in the Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico.
It is not slated to affect the NYC area--except for rip currents.
These fronts will push temperatures down to seasonable levels which will seem quite chilly after the extended period of midsummer temperatures.
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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
25 Sep 2017, 10:18 am
100% without power. Flooding everywhere. Only if you experience it can you imagine its magnitude.
I wish we could find a way to cool the waters of the Caribbean Basin a couple of degrees Celsius....
Recently a gal here who lives in Puerto Rico was asking about moving to Canada or the US mainland. I hope she's okay.
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"There are a thousand things that can happen when you go light a rocket engine, and only one of them is good."
Tom Mueller of SpaceX, in Air and Space, Jan. 2011
25 Sep 2017, 12:40 pm
Think of it this way: she's okay enough to post on here about moving to Canada and the US.
Despite there being little electricity, and presumably little Internet access.
That's not a mean feat in the Puerto Rico of today, it seems.
I still wish the best for this person. She's definitely having it harder than I am--even if she does have Internet, etc.
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30 Dec 2017, 1:28 am
Nearly half of Puerto Rico still without electricity 3 months after Hurricane Maria
Officials said 55 percent of the nearly 1.5 million customers have power, marking the first time the government has provided that statistic since the Category 4 storm hit on Sept. 20 with winds of up to 154 mph. Officials had previously reported power generation, which stands at nearly 70 percent of pre-storm levels.
"The damage was severe," power company spokesman Geraldo Quinones told The Associated Press. "A lot of work remains."
One of Puerto Rico 78 municipalities remains entirely without power, and it's unclear when some electricity will be restored to the central mountain town of Ciales. Crews this week restored power for the first time to parts of the southeast coastal town of Yabucoa, which received the first hit from Maria.
Quinones said power remains out across the island equally, although he wasn't able to immediately say what percentage of businesses and homes now have electricity.
Gov. Ricardo Rossello had pledged 95 percent power generation by Dec. 15, while the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has said the entire island will have power by May.
Fredyson Martinez, vice president of a union that represents workers with Puerto Rico's power company, told the AP on Friday that a recent study by local engineers found that 90 percent of industries and 75 percent of businesses already have power, meaning residential areas are disproportionately in the dark.
Martinez also said that a lack of supplies and equipment is slowing power restoration efforts, echoing an early concern by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Government officials said nearly 14,000 poles already have been shipped to Puerto Rico, and that another 7,000 will arrive in upcoming days. In addition, some 3,500 workers are trying to restore power across the island
Carlos Torres, who is overseeing power restoration efforts, said that crews are still finding unexpected damage including what he called severely impacted substations
Puerto Rico's governor on Friday said that he has requested up to 1,500 additional workers from electric companies across the U.S. mainland to help restore power, and said he has asked the Army Corps of Engineers to increase its capacity to provide assistance.
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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
