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drwho222
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22 Sep 2017, 12:23 pm

Facts are facts. By 2027 the Chinese economy will be as big as that of the US. By 2050 it will be twice the size of that of the US. Western nations are disorganized, led by dysfunctional governments, and the worst of friends. The colonial legacy of the 18th and 19th centuries has left an abiding hatred of us in most of the developing world. And we are stagnant, obsessed with past success, no longer looking forward.



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22 Sep 2017, 12:33 pm

I don't see an issue. For the left they can stop complaining about the way we treat non-western nations and for the right that means we can get out of world policing. Hegemony is costly to maintain (the main reason they collapse), there are only marginal benefits, and most of the allure is just to pound one's chest and claim I'm #1. Sorry, it's the 21st century, they are better things to spend societal resources on other than peacocking around.



drwho222
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22 Sep 2017, 12:56 pm

Aristophanes wrote:
I don't see an issue. For the left they can stop complaining about the way we treat non-western nations and for the right that means we can get out of world policing. Hegemony is costly to maintain (the main reason they collapse), there are only marginal benefits, and most of the allure is just to pound one's chest and claim I'm #1. Sorry, it's the 21st century, they are better things to spend societal resources on other than peacocking around.


Agreed. However my concern is with a Chinese hegemony replacing the current US/UK hegemony. What will happen with China at the helm?



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22 Sep 2017, 1:22 pm

If you could reliably make accurate economic predictions, you'd be too busy counting your money to post here.

That said, what you propose looks like a plausible potential outcome, given a lot of hypotheticals. Once that many assumptions pile up, things get difficult to discuss.

Let's stipulate that China will increase its global influence. That seems very likely, if not certain. However, China can't do that and also stay the same. How will the acquisition of more soft power change China? How will more exposure to other cultures, freedom of information, and different values change the Chinese people?


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drwho222
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22 Sep 2017, 1:29 pm

jrjones9933 wrote:
If you could reliably make accurate economic predictions, you'd be too busy counting your money to post here.

That said, what you propose looks like a plausible potential outcome, given a lot of hypotheticals. Once that many assumptions pile up, things get difficult to discuss.

Let's stipulate that China will increase its global influence. That seems very likely, if not certain. However, China can't do that and also stay the same. How will the acquisition of more soft power change China? How will more exposure to other cultures, freedom of information, and different values change the Chinese people?


That the Chinese economy is going to outstrip that of the US this century is a certainty. I think you are looking at this the wrong way. I don't see the Chinese changing, come what may. A better question will be how will Chinese dominance change the world?

Just read an article on Korea where Trump called Kim a madman. What a clear cut case of the pot calling the kettle black. Trump should be the poster child for the decline of Western hegemony.



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22 Sep 2017, 1:43 pm

yeah, but does anyone outside of china speak chinese or care about chinese culture? :)


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22 Sep 2017, 1:48 pm

There is no denying that Asia will dominate in the near future. The 20th Centurey was "the American Century". After 2050 will be the "Age of Asia" because China, and India, are industrializing now, and even Bangladesh, and Pakistan, are starting to get their act together. These will follow the already established power of Japan in leading the world. Even a slight rise in the productivity/prosperity per capita in nations with that huge a population will effect the world. This will happen regardless of how unified the west is. And it isn't necessarily a bad thing at all.



Aristophanes
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22 Sep 2017, 1:53 pm

drwho222 wrote:
jrjones9933 wrote:
If you could reliably make accurate economic predictions, you'd be too busy counting your money to post here.

That said, what you propose looks like a plausible potential outcome, given a lot of hypotheticals. Once that many assumptions pile up, things get difficult to discuss.

Let's stipulate that China will increase its global influence. That seems very likely, if not certain. However, China can't do that and also stay the same. How will the acquisition of more soft power change China? How will more exposure to other cultures, freedom of information, and different values change the Chinese people?


That the Chinese economy is going to outstrip that of the US this century is a certainty. I think you are looking at this the wrong way. I don't see the Chinese changing, come what may. A better question will be how will Chinese dominance change the world?

Just read an article on Korea where Trump called Kim a madman. What a clear cut case of the pot calling the kettle black. Trump should be the poster child for the decline of Western hegemony.

Don't infuse Trump here, there's a place for him, but this discussion was actually going somewhere and all Trump does is derail, even when he's not personally involved, just his polarizing identity derails.

I don't think the Chinese have any plans outside the orient. They have by far the world's largest population, and a population that large is hard to tend for, hard enough it makes outside expansion unfeasible. Economically, yes, the Chinese want to be a major player, but that's not to say they're going to expand their presence outside their own sphere of influence. As for cultural influence, China's been more influenced by the west in the last forty years than the other way around.

One other note: we're talking a fifty year economic projection here, which is near impossible to make. Also along that line, we're in 1800 talking about 1850, because we have technology on the horizon (automation/robotics) that's going to fundamentally change economics, just as the industrial revolution did between 1800 and 1850.



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23 Sep 2017, 3:08 pm

Trump is accelerating the process of the US losing its hegemony.

English, truly, is the Lingua Franca of the world.

China has about 4-5 times our population. Let us not forget that.



drwho222
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23 Sep 2017, 4:13 pm

Reply to all:

First, I think we can all agree that Western hegemony is on the way out, and this isn't a bad thing at all.
Second, China and India will be major economic players in the post Western dominated world. My question is, can we do business with them in a way that is peaceful and to the benefit of both?

And yes, Trumps a grenade, sorry I threw him out there.



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23 Sep 2017, 4:29 pm

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The problem is, it needs rapid growth to pay off its enormous investments fueled by massive amounts of government credit.

"The real risk that China poses to the U.S. and global economies is that its rapid economic growth since the 2008-2009 global economic recession has been powered by a credit bubble of epic proportions," wrote Desmond Lachman, an American Enterprise Institute fellow who previously served as a deputy director of the IMF, earlier this year.

What does "epic" mean? By one account, China has expanded credit by nearly 100% of the nation's GDP since the end of the credit crisis. Since 2007, China has added $24 trillion in debt at all levels, which is more than the U.S. government's total debt of just under $20 trillion.

http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/is-chinas-debt-bubble-about-to-burst/


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It is not news that Chinese debt is regarded as a risk to global financial stability.

But it is news that the situation is so bad that even Chinese bank executives are willing to say they're in a bubble.

That includes Lai Xiaomin, the chairman of China Huarong Asset Management, China's largest state-controlled "bad bank."

Huarong trades in nonperforming loans, distressed assets, and bad debt. Investors are so sure that the government has the debt situation under control that people are pouring money into risky debt products rather than fleeing from them, he says.

"There is a bubble in the price of bad assets," he told the Financial Times. "If you don't understand the market for bad assets or asset restructuring and merging, for nonprofessionals there is big risk. Not only will you not make money, you will also lose money."
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-debt-risk-to-financial-stability-2017-9


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However, the IMF said the faster pace of growth would come at the cost of increased debt. China’s total non-financial sector debt, including corporate, government and household debt, is expected to reach almost 300 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022, up from 242 percent in 2016, as Beijing strives to achieve its goal of doubling 2010 real GDP by 2020.

A key consequence of the debt ramp-up is a “higher probability of a sharp adjustment,” potentially triggered by a funding shock, trade war, or surge in capital outflows. “This raises concerns for a possible sharp decline in growth in the medium term,” the Washington-based institution said.

The IMF urged Beijing to address the issue through greater “deleveraging efforts” in the private sector, raising consumption’s share of GDP compared to investment, and enhancing social spending to reduce income inequality, “which is among the highest in the world.”

Productivity could also be enhanced by reducing the amount of resources going to loss-making “zombie” companies, “overcapacity” industries and state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with the potential to boost productivity’s contribution to growth by about 1 percentage point over the longer term.

Yet China “bears” such as analyst Charlene Chu have suggested the real bad debt figure in China is up to $6.8 trillion more than official estimates, making it important in “global terms.”

http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/korean-war-threat-fades-as-china-debt-fears-resurface/
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Chu suggests bad debts in China’s financial system will reach $7.6 trillion by year-end, more than five times the official value of non-performing bank loans, implying a bad debt ratio of 34 percent compared to the official 5.3 percent.

:arrow: According to Chu, Beijing’s influence over both borrowers and lenders has allowed it to delay dealing with such problems longer than might be possible in a market-driven system.


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kitesandtrainsandcats
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23 Sep 2017, 4:46 pm

drwho222 wrote:
China and India will be major economic players in the post Western dominated world. My question is, can we do business with them in a way that is peaceful and to the benefit of both?
I think the larger question is can China and India consistently continue to do business in a way that is peaceful and to the benefit of both?

Quote:
KOLKATA: China and India are working together to "take forward" their relationship leaving behind the Doklam episode, the Chinese Consul General here has said.

Chinese Consul General Ma Zhanwu also asserted that by working together cooperation and exchanges can be further enhanced.

"India and China are working together. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping had a meeting on September 5 to discuss how to enhance the relationship," Zhanwu said here on Friday night while addressing an event to mark the 68th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

"As long as the two countries work together, we will able to enhance and develop exchanges and cooperation," he said.

Asked if both the countries have left behind the Doklam episode+ , Zhanwu said "Yes we have left that behind and are working together to take forward the bilateral relationship".

Prime Minister Modi had met President Xi on the sidelines of the 9th BRICS Summit on September 5+ .

The two leaders had agreed that both the countries should put in more effort to strengthen the cooperation between their security personnel and ensure that Doklam-like incidents do not recur.

The Chinese and the Indian troops were engaged in a prolonged standoff in the Doklam area of the Sikkim sector since June 16 after the Indian side stopped the construction of a road by the Chinese Army.

On August 28, external affairs ministry announced that New Delhi and Beijing have decided on "expeditious disengagement" of their border troops in the disputed Doklam area.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/working-with-india-to-take-ties-forward-post-doklam-china/articleshow/60807159.cms

Quote:
Only a handful of Indian diplomats have had the experience of understanding China like former foreign secretary Shyam Saran did.

During an interactive session hosted by The Indian Express, the 1970-batch IFS officer, who served in China on various occasions, spoke on the intricacies of the bilateral relations between the two neighbours and the way forward for the two Asian giants especially after the recent Doka La standoff.

Doka La crisis unprecedented for China

While breaking down the Doka La crisis, which has dominated the news cycles in India for over two months, Saran said that standoff precipitated due to China's disbelief that India could stand its ground and come to Bhutan's rescue.

"China were caught unprepared to confront India. Beijing never thought that Indian troops would enter a third country (Bhutan) and defend the disputed territory. When the plan did not go as per the script, then the Chinese indulged in vitriol to deter India from emboldening itself," Saran said.

With China's state-sponsored media continuing to toe to a belligerent line, the Indian media feared an imminent border skirmish akin to the 1967 Cho La incident.

However, better sense prevailed and the standoff ended on 28 August after India and China agreed to withdraw their troops to their respective sides of the border. Saran called this a "significant success" for diplomacy but also speculated on other reasons for the ceasing of hostilities at the tri-junction.

"Of course, diplomacy played a major role in diffusing the situation. But one cannot deny there may have been other factors too. BRICS Summit was supposed to take place in Xiamen and the Chinese would not have wanted it to be impacted. Another was an internal factor. The Communist Party of China will be holding its meeting in October, which is crucial for Xi Jinping, who is hoping for a second term as general secretary," Saran said.

http://www.firstpost.com/india/china-not-prepared-enough-to-handle-a-cultural-giant-like-india-as-neighbour-says-shyam-saran-4065865.html


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23 Sep 2017, 5:04 pm

Some of this is irrelevant and some of it is completely wrong.

drwho222 wrote:
Facts are facts. By 2027 the Chinese economy will be as big as that of the US. By 2050 it will be twice the size of that of the US.


Meh.

Sweden isn't as powerful as the United States, but it still has a high standard of living. A "weak" country can still have a high standard of living if the resources are distributed well.

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Western nations are disorganized, led by dysfunctional governments, and the worst of friends.


Worst of friends? What gave you that idea? The Western countries get along just fine. We haven't had a war between Western powers in decades.

It is true that Western countries are disorganized ... because we have freedom.
Are you calling for authoritarianism? This wouldn't surprise me. In some of your previous posts, you called for eugenics, which is a type of racist authoritarianism.

Quote:
The colonial legacy of the 18th and 19th centuries has left an abiding hatred of us in most of the developing world.


We can easily solve this problem by voting for liberal leftists and dismantling the empire.

Britain once had a powerful empire. Nowadays, you almost never hear anyone scream "Death to Britain!" This is because America is the new militant ringleader.

Look at Japan. America nuked Japan at the end of WW2. It was one of the most horrifying human rights violations in all of history. Nowadays, most Japanese people are okay with America ... because Japan isn't currently under American occupation.

The third world isn't mad at America over what happened in the past. They're mad about what's happening right now.

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And we are stagnant, obsessed with past success, no longer looking forward.


This is totally wrong. We have moved forward on racial and sexual issues by several miles. Technological growth is still accelerating. We may be in a state of political stagnation (Watch "Hypernormalization" by Adam Curtis.) but Bernie Sanders is about to shatter this stagnation like a wrecking ball. He's the most popular politician in America right now. The multibillionaires are desperately trying to stomp out his fire, but they're just feeling the Bern.

Sanders 2020


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23 Sep 2017, 5:09 pm

drwho222 wrote:
Agreed. However my concern is with a Chinese hegemony replacing the current US/UK hegemony. What will happen with China at the helm?


I don't think that China will ever have control over the whole world. The West can easily resist Chinese power.

Plus, the Chinese government is struggling to keep the Chinese masses under control. Cracks are forming in the Chinese system. Chinese people keep finding ways around the Chinese internet censors. The entire system is on the verge of implosion.


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drwho222
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23 Sep 2017, 5:28 pm

DarthMetaKnight wrote:
Some of this is irrelevant and some of it is completely wrong.

drwho222 wrote:
Facts are facts. By 2027 the Chinese economy will be as big as that of the US. By 2050 it will be twice the size of that of the US.


Meh.

Sweden isn't as powerful as the United States, but it still has a high standard of living. A "weak" country can still have a high standard of living if the resources are distributed well.

Quote:
Western nations are disorganized, led by dysfunctional governments, and the worst of friends.


Worst of friends? What gave you that idea? The Western countries get along just fine. We haven't had a war between Western powers in decades.

It is true that Western countries are disorganized ... because we have freedom.
Are you calling for authoritarianism? This wouldn't surprise me. In some of your previous posts, you called for eugenics, which is a type of racist authoritarianism.

Quote:
The colonial legacy of the 18th and 19th centuries has left an abiding hatred of us in most of the developing world.


We can easily solve this problem by voting for liberal leftists and dismantling the empire.

Britain once had a powerful empire. Nowadays, you almost never hear anyone scream "Death to Britain!" This is because America is the new militant ringleader.

Look at Japan. America nuked Japan at the end of WW2. It was one of the most horrifying human rights violations in all of history. Nowadays, most Japanese people are okay with America ... because Japan isn't currently under American occupation.

The third world isn't mad at America over what happened in the past. They're mad about what's happening right now.

Quote:
And we are stagnant, obsessed with past success, no longer looking forward.


This is totally wrong. We have moved forward on racial and sexual issues by several miles. Technological growth is still accelerating. We may be in a state of political stagnation (Watch "Hypernormalization" by Adam Curtis.) but Bernie Sanders is about to shatter this stagnation like a wrecking ball. He's the most popular politician in America right now. The multibillionaires are desperately trying to stomp out his fire, but they're just feeling the Bern.

Sanders 2020


Your hatred of the USA is just what I mean by worst of friends. We are well aware of how much we are hated in France and the other socalist nations of Europe--I had a debate with someone from Denmark awhile back about their absurd freedom killing taxes. She said their government would never turn on them, to which I replied that there is no need to--they are already de facto slaves. I then posted a link showing that things are not so rosy in Denmark after all, at which point she abandoned the debate. And as for Hiroshima and Nagasagi, most people of the 1940s including the President and etc just didn't understand, I mean not really, just what an atomic weapon could do. Most just saw it as a really big explosion, and since we were already in a fight to the finish with a nasty and horrible Japanese empire, nobody would have questioned its use. Japans human rights abuses against Koreans as well as US and Australian POWs were horrible, and they have NEVER made things right on that score.

You found one post of mine where I said that people have gotten more stupid since Victorian times? I make no apology for it, its happened, its a fact. And the reason IS what I posted--experiments on mice have clearly shown that IQ is heritable, and since the 19th century low IQ people in the majority white West have out reproduced the high IQ ones. What I still want to know is what is racist about this view?

And I hate to break this to you, but the most popular polition in the US now IS Trump. Bernie has ZERO chance of a Presidency. You just don't know US politics.



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23 Sep 2017, 5:28 pm

drwho222 wrote:
Trump should be the poster child for the decline of Western hegemony.


This is true, but not in the way you think.

Trump's approval rating is plummeting. He will likely be replaced by Sanders in 2020.


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