https://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/self-driving/the-big-problem-with-selfdriving-cars-is-people
The Big Problem With Self-Driving Cars Is People
And we’ll go out of our way to make the problem worse
Posted 27 Jul 2017 | 15:00 GMT
By Rodney Brooks
Quote:
As Roy Amara’s eponymous law famously states, “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
That is where we are today. People are overestimating how quickly level-5 autonomy will come and overestimating how widespread level-4 autonomy will become in the near future. They see only the technical possibilities, not the resistance that will come when autonomous agents invade human spaces, be they too rude or overly deferential.
Certainly this new way of driving will eventually come. It will creep up on us, finally reducing manual driving to a recreation confined to specialized entertainment zones. The day of the robocar is inevitable, but that day will not come soon.
And flying cars? Forget about ’em.
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"There are a thousand things that can happen when you go light a rocket engine, and only one of them is good."
Tom Mueller of SpaceX, in Air and Space, Jan. 2011
23 Sep 2017, 9:59 pm
