How many Trump supporters can be persuaded?

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Read some good articles about this yesterday (albeit based on opinion polls from a low-quality pollster, SurveyMonkey).

About 15% of Trump supporters in the Presidential election were reluctant to vote for him. That obviously means 85% were not, but 15% is pretty huge. In the unlikely event of them all switching to the Democrats, then the Democrats would win not only all the 2016 swing states, but also Alaska, Texas, and South Carolina. That's a massive 425 electoral votes.

Before you get excited, it's worth noting that these voters are distributed in a way that is unhelpful to the Democrats. They tend to be well-educated, white, and Republican-leaning. They're probably concentrated disproportionately in blue states on the coasts.

And while the tendency is for them to be moderate Republicans, about 10% identify as strongly socially conservative. Those are very unlikely to switch to a Democrat, and are quite unlikely to just not vote, so they'll either go to a conservative third party (the Constitution Party?) or stick with Trump.

What % of unenthusiastic Trump supporters currently disapprove? About 37%, with 14% strongly disapproving (so 23% only slightly disapprove). This compares to 4% of enthusiastic Trump supporters who disapprove of him, and 55.7% of American adults who disapprove of him.

According to another survey (by a stronger pollster), about 26% of Trump voters identify as Democrats. Many of them voted Democrat down the ticket in 2016. It would seem reasonable that these people would be willing to vote against Mr Trump in the future.

Obama-Trump voters are concentrated around the Rust Belt (no surprise if you look at '12 and '16 election maps!). These people tend to be relatively unconcerned about immigration compared to ordinary Trump supporters, relatively pessimistic about the economy compared to most Americans, and don't think Trump cares about people like them. Most of them prefer the Republicans to the Democrats, but don't identify with either party or pay much attention to politics. According to a slightly dated poll, 70% of these people approve of the job Trump is doing, while 22% do not. 16% regret voting for him.

From these numbers, I would guess that around 20-30% of Trump supporters can be reasoned with, but most of them will probably vote for him in the next election anyway. But with the margins in key states being so narrow, it only takes a small number of his supporters getting fed up for re-election to become very tricky.

Sources:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/re ... hes-doing/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr ... reluctant/
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/upsh ... think.html
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tr ... 4e440e24a9
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/0 ... oll-242334
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr ... should-be/

I believe that's true to a degree. But at the same time it's simply applied that same attitude by liberally labling people as nazis and _____phobes as a means of controling society. Basically it seems like what liberalism strives for is a master society as far as ideology goes; and those who don't capitulate are basically labeled as the scum of the earth.

We don't vote at a national level, through the electoral college system everything is a winner take all at the state level. While 15% less people voting for Trump is a large number, if we look at the state demographics it has very little impact. Take Alabama, which voted ~62-34 for Trump, take that 15% and swing it the other way (62% * .15 = 9.3% percent of overall population), it's still 53%/43% Trump, and 10 points is still not a close race, and Trump wins all 9 electoral votes regardless. Likewise, take New York which went ~61/33 Hillary, it's now 70/24 Hillary and it makes not a lick of difference she only gets 29 electoral votes regardless of how much she runs up the score.

Trump isn't a fascist because fascists need to be much more single-minded and dedicated to a cause.

Bannon is neofascist. Le Pen is a neofascist. Trump is an idiotic buffoon who just happens to want most of the same things as neofascists.

Trump isn't a fascist because fascists need to be much more single-minded and dedicated to a cause.

Bannon is neofascist. Le Pen is a neofascist. Trump is an idiotic buffoon who just happens to want most of the same things as neofascists.

I still cannot understand how anybody with a disability could have voted Trump. He made it clear what he thought of the disabled when he used a reporter's disability against him like a schoolyard bully.

But I guess some people are willing to vote against their best interests to keep a female out of the Oval Office.

I still cannot understand how anybody with a disability could have voted Trump. He made it clear what he thought of the disabled when he used a reporter's disability against him like a schoolyard bully.

But I guess some people are willing to vote against their best interests to keep a female out of the Oval Office.

How do you know they opposed Hillary simply because of her sex?

How do you know they opposed Hillary simply because of her sex?

Hillary did not lose because she's a woman or because of imaginary Russian hackers. Her continued lies and arrogance now are showing partly why she lost. Most of you people here care more about people offending 'minorities' than you do about your government killing millions around the world and supporting racial apartheid and racial colonies in illegally occupied territory stolen in blood by a state that you give $10 million a day out of your taxes. You ought to get your priorities in order!

No point crying about fascism and patting yourselves on the back for being 'liberal' when your country's foreign policy is just like the Nazis. Get a grip!

My point wasn't to relate this to Trump's chances of gaining re-election, although of course the two are linked. The point is to try and answer, quantitatively, what portion of Trump supporters are open to reason. It would seem that at least 1 in 5 are.