naturalplastic wrote:
Right conclusion for the wrong reason.
What stops Kim from starting WWIII is not Confucian honor, nor is it MAD, but just the AD part of "MAD".
What stops him is not "mutual assured destruction", but just the assured destruction part. The assured destruction of his own country alone. The Norks are not in the same weight class as the USA on any level even including nukes. So its not even a symmetrical balance of power as with the old USSR (which was in our weight class in both conventional and in nuclear armament). So there cannot be anything "mutual" about the destruction. He could destroy one target (say Guam, or maybe even Seattle), and that's it. And he knows that his whole country would be flatten in response in minutes.
But that's not WWIII or anything close to a global world war. So I don't get why so many people are talking about Kim or Trump starting a third world war.
Every depiction of WWIII I've seen shows hundreds of missiles, not two or three, which as you say would be the total involved in a nuclear war between NK and the US. It is a horrifying idea to be sure. But nothing close to a world war.
You are correct.
No one likely thought that the first shots fired in WWI and WW2 would set in motion those world wars as well.
North Korea has powerful friends an who can say what a first nuclear strike will bring.
13 Oct 2017, 5:31 pm
