Nobody interested in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

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Pepe
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08 Feb 2023, 9:33 pm

Mikah wrote:
Pepe wrote:
That is one OPINION, yes.
If there was hard evidence it would be presented.
Hence this falls into the realm of SPECULATION. 8)


It is neither opinion nor speculation.

It's a pretty good bet he's got a scoop here.


You say it is a "betting" situation.
With verifiable FACTS, there is NO "betting" involved. 8)



Josh68
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09 Feb 2023, 2:06 am

Pepe wrote:
Josh68 wrote:
Pepe wrote:
Josh68 wrote:
One thing we do know sure is Russia most certainly didn't sabotage their own pipeline. That makes zero sense.





That is simply your OPINION. 8)
Some would disagree.


Sure, it's my opinion. If you could present a valid counter argument to that opinion then I'm all ears. Why would a country sabotage a crucial piece of their economy to hurt European NATO countries when they could easily simply turn off the spigot or limit production. The former just doesn't hold up to logical scrutiny by any stretch of the imagination.


One of the theories/fears, at the time, was that pootin was sending a message to the world...
That other ocean infrastructure could be covertly damaged/destroyed.

Another was that pootin was threatening to freeze nations into submission, during the winter months that were approaching at the time.
Thankfully, other alternate power/energy supplies were hastily obtained to reduce the impact of pootin's ongoing blackmail.


I think that Biden's statement that the U.S. would end the Nordream pipeline if Russia invaded Ukraine is pretty damning evidence for who really did it. There have been statements dating back to years before this conflict began that prove it's long been a goal of the U.S. to hurt Russia by crippling the pipeline.

It seems far less plausible that Putin would shoot himself in the foot to send a message to the world.


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magz
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09 Feb 2023, 2:23 am

Highlander852456 wrote:
No you make perfect point of fog of war all in all I was thinking this too, but I think my point is we are kind of blind and missing any nuance of war and what is happening.

For instance I find it bizzare how Zelensky is reporting certain things and about how Ukraine is kicking ass, when one fifth of Ukraine is now apparently under control of Russia.
Just goes to show things dont add up. People find these things then problematic to believe.

Zelensky is a politician, not a historian, not even a military specialist. His job is to get resources to win this war, not to report it accurately.
I don't get an impression of "Ukraine kicking ass" but maybe my news outlets employ different filtering than yours. The picture I currently have is rather tense, with amassed Russian army in Voronezh region only waiting for the right weather for another big offensive - and the initiative Ukrainian army used to have in the autumn is now completely lost.
I'm hoping they're doing the rational thing and prepare defense for the expected attack. There are some indications they do, like absence of their best units in current fights.
New Western tanks can be used only next autumn. They are important because the West is running out of post-Soviet tanks and spare parts for them, but they are not game-changers in the numbers currently promised. Hopefully, similarily to e.g. himars systems, after a small initial amount, larger amount will follow.


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Pepe
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09 Feb 2023, 2:29 am

Josh68 wrote:
Pepe wrote:
Josh68 wrote:
Pepe wrote:
Josh68 wrote:
One thing we do know sure is Russia most certainly didn't sabotage their own pipeline. That makes zero sense.





That is simply your OPINION. 8)
Some would disagree.


Sure, it's my opinion. If you could present a valid counter argument to that opinion then I'm all ears. Why would a country sabotage a crucial piece of their economy to hurt European NATO countries when they could easily simply turn off the spigot or limit production. The former just doesn't hold up to logical scrutiny by any stretch of the imagination.


One of the theories/fears, at the time, was that pootin was sending a message to the world...
That other ocean infrastructure could be covertly damaged/destroyed.

Another was that pootin was threatening to freeze nations into submission, during the winter months that were approaching at the time.
Thankfully, other alternate power/energy supplies were hastily obtained to reduce the impact of pootin's ongoing blackmail.


I think that Biden's statement that the U.S. would end the Nordream pipeline if Russia invaded Ukraine is pretty damning evidence for who really did it. There have been statements dating back to years before this conflict began that prove it's long been a goal of the U.S. to hurt Russia by crippling the pipeline.

It seems far less plausible that Putin would shoot himself in the foot to send a message to the world.


IIRC, the Nordream pipeline was a joint program, not only a Russian one.
Destroying the pipeline would also be destroying European infrastructure.
How do you think the European country/countries, the allies of Amerria, would view such an act of sabotage by the USA?

You are entitled to your OPINION.
I just don't share it.



magz
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09 Feb 2023, 2:46 am

We may learn the truth about NS pipes only decades from now - if we ever do.
There are some "black horses" other than USA and Russia, e.g. Ukraine or Baltic states - this operation wouldn't require extensive resources, smaller states aren't ruled out.
False flag operation is rather likely and can go any way.
I find it quite possible that Russia mined the pipes for possible future use in hybrid warfare but someone else blew them at that moment. Or that they were mined for hybrid warfare and blew up accidentally.
I see a lot of possibilities other than the two people argue about.
We must assume we don't know.


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magz
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09 Feb 2023, 3:08 am

ISW claims, a big Russian offensive in Lugansk oblast has started.

Strange. I don't think the weather is right. But "factor X" is unpredictable.

Update: Yeah, the weather is awful. Mud and melting snow - heavy equipment can be moved only along roads.
Image

False alarm, "factor X" or a smaller attack inflated in the information space? I'd guess the last one. Pity. I'd expect ISW to do better.


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Pepe
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09 Feb 2023, 4:13 am

Quote:
Bakhmut in CRITICAL situation. How long can Ukraine hold out? Ukraine-Russia-War Situation Report
Military & History
23.6K subscribers
18,043 views Feb 9, 2023




Mikah
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09 Feb 2023, 4:48 am

Pepe wrote:
You say it is a "betting" situation.
With verifiable FACTS, there is NO "betting" involved. 8)


On the contrary, verifiable facts are never available to most readers. Unless you are the source of a story or intimately involved, the reader is always making bets on the veracity of a report and must make a judgement on whether the "facts" you have are actually being reported to you accurately.

But I forget, you are someone who has unironically reposted so much cretinous propaganda from ANKA news that you obviously do not understand that at all.


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Pepe
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09 Feb 2023, 5:09 am

Quote:
Why retired maj. general believes Russia is getting 'routinely smashed' by Ukraine
CNN
14.7M subscribers
96,315 views Feb 9, 2023 #CNN #News
Retired Major General James "Spider" Marks explains to CNN's Erin Burnett why he believes Russia is in a "bad spot" and why he says Russia will be "routinely smashed" by Ukraine. #CNN #News




Pepe
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09 Feb 2023, 7:35 am

Mikah wrote:
Pepe wrote:
You say it is a "betting" situation.
With verifiable FACTS, there is NO "betting" involved. 8)


On the contrary, verifiable facts are never available to most readers.


And you think I don't know this because?
If not directly involved, there is usually an element of trust in those presenting the evidence.
Hence, your presumptuousness as to the source's veracity.

BTW, You do realise you have just shifted the context from "Facts don't involve betting/interpretation " to "facts are not available to most readers", right?

Mikah wrote:
Unless you are the source of a story or intimately involved, the reader is always making bets on the veracity of a report and must make a judgement on whether the "facts" you have are actually being reported to you accurately.


As mentioned, your premise is presumptuous.
You presume that your source is unequivocally correct.
You have provided nothing that validates your premise.
Even the author doesn't have "facts" and is simply "Connecting the dots".

And you do realise that when "judgements" are mentioned, it means the involvement of "Speculation".
"Facts" have no need for interpretation in this context.

You do understand that what you are saying actually supports my position that what you are saying IS speculation, right?
Your position is that there is no doubt in what you are saying yet there is indeed a need for a judgement call.
Can you not see the logical inconsistency of your argument?

Mikah wrote:
But I forget, you are someone who has unironically reposted so much cretinous propaganda from ANKA news that you obviously do not understand that at all.


Man, do you have an attitude... 8O

Let me recap what you have said:
Quote:
The story his source tells is plausible

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=403880&start=2400#p9232901

"Plausible" has nothing to do with "Factual".
"Plausible" involves the concept of "Speculation".
How do you not know this?

And as to your slight about my using "cretinous propaganda", I have a myriad of sources that I have been reviewing.
Over time, one gets to know which is more credible.
How do you not know this?

Dude, I don't know what your problem is but plz tone it back. 8)



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09 Feb 2023, 4:07 pm

Hersh is an 85-year-old journalist who is well past his best, and even at his best was criticised for being overly dependent on "anonymous sources" who turned out to be unreliable.

In recent years, he has claimed that:

- the Bush administration was contemplating a nuclear strike against Iran
- the US was funding the terror group Fatah al-Islam
- Hillary Clinton was anti-Iran because she was being paid by the Jews
- the death of Osama bin Laden occurred because the Pakistani government, who had been protecting him, decided to hand him over, and there was no attempt to capture him
- Bashir al-Assad did not use chemical weapons
- and that the Salisbury poisonings did not use novichok

Unfortunately, these days the guy is a crank with a track record of believing unreliable sources and publishing weird stories based on their testimony.



Mikah
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09 Feb 2023, 4:45 pm

Pepe wrote:
Dude, I don't know what your problem is but plz tone it back. 8)


I was being nice, this is me being less nice: I was willing to let your little blunder go with some gentle rib-prodding, but you are still trying to save face by pretending that when you dismissed the report as "opinion" and "speculation" it wasn't because you either didn't read or utterly misinterpreted the report, but because you were three steps ahead in an five dimensional argument with me about truth, facts and journalistic reporting. You're trying to twist both your words and mine and squirm out of this egg-on-face error of yours, but it's not going to fool anyone with a triple digit IQ.


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Pepe
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09 Feb 2023, 7:17 pm

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Update from Ukraine | The most stupid way to lose Tanks and Soldiers | Ruzzia learns nothing
Denys Davydov
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28K views 25 minutes ago




magz
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10 Feb 2023, 3:06 am

Yeah, turns out the it's the "factor X" and ISW was right.

Do not underestimate them. Russian army is poorly commanded but big.

Some historical trivia:
During the Polish-Soviet war of 1920, there was a saying that "problems start when there are more Soviets than bullets".
During the Battle of Stalingrad, an average lifetime of a Soviet soldier after crossing the river was 18 minutes.

Heavy losses are nothing new to Russian military tradition. And certainly they are not something that would make them reconsider the whole affair.


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Pepe
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10 Feb 2023, 5:17 am

magz wrote:
Yeah, turns out the it's the "factor X" and ISW was right.

Do not underestimate them. Russian army is poorly commanded but big.

Some historical trivia:
During the Polish-Soviet war of 1920, there was a saying that "problems start when there are more Soviets than bullets".
During the Battle of Stalingrad, an average lifetime of a Soviet soldier after crossing the river was 18 minutes.

Heavy losses are nothing new to Russian military tradition. And certainly they are not something that would make them reconsider the whole affair.


The hundreds of thousands of mobilised conscripts have made a big difference, unfortunately.



magz
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10 Feb 2023, 5:32 am

Pepe wrote:
The hundreds of thousands of mobilised conscripts have made a big difference, unfortunately.

And their military equipment factories work round the clock, while anti-West propaganda is absolutely crazy.
My govt is in a military equipment shopping spree for a very good reason - and US are ready to sell us much more advanced weapons than they would normally export - also for a good reason.
Have you heard about the offer of 506 Himars systems for Poland?


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