visagrunt wrote:
Polling is most certainly an inexact practice--but it's the best tool we have to estimate results.
Look at Politieke Barometer for the 2010 election--their last poll predictions (and the actual results) were: VVD: 33 (31), PvdA: 30 (30), PVV: 17(24), CDA: 24 (21), SP: 14 (15), D66: 10 (10), GL: 11 (10), CU: 6 (5), PvdD: 2 (2), SGP: 3 (2). You are quite correct that they overestimated VVD and underestimated PVV--but overall their polling was not unreasonably variant from the result.
They were seven seats off with the PVV, and they overestimated two liberal parties. Again, that's because their panel consists of semi-representative people. They're representative to a degree, but they're not the type of people to vote PVV. Those aren't generally registered with any polling institutions. They're very visible to the naked eye, but largely invisible to polling institutions. If they say 20 seats now, it might well be 25 or even 30.
visagrunt wrote:
You seem to betray a certain arrogance in your statement that, "people are poorly informed." I suggest to you that there are plenty of people who are very well informed indeed who are voting for every one of those parties; and there are people who are very ignorant indeed who are voting for them as well. Some people, like you, vote strongly on an anti-immigrant line because you believe that is the most important policy choice to make. Other people vote that line because they are knuckle draggers who don't like brown people.
There are plenty of poorly-informed people and some well-informed people on both sides. However, I've personally managed to convince several people to stop voting for traditional parties by simply telling them what the European Union was currently doing - taking the price of a new small car from every citizen of the Netherlands for a dodgy fund in Brussels that's going to collapse before the end of the decade. What might be more worrying is that the amount of money we've guaranteed for that fund is driving our national debt up in such a way that it'll be at least twenty more years at this pace until we're back at our debt level of 2011.
Yes, they're solving a debt crisis by dramatically increasing the debt in the only countries that weren't in immediate trouble yet. This is how desperate the European Union is now. If our contribution this fund does not return, our national debt will increase to approximately 80-90% of GDP, bringing us under immediate scrutiny from financial institutions and credit rating agencies.
visagrunt wrote:
The point is that the reasons people have for voting the way that they do are never wrong. You may not agree with them, and you may think them uninformed, but their votes have precisely the same value as yours does. And you are no more right or wrong than they are.
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Wish that one existed. Anyway, what I said is that they're badly-informed. A lot of voters know very little about what they're voting for. In fact, many people who vote for our labour party can't even speak Dutch, and some are even illiterate and have their votes cast by members of their families. In large cities, people were observed entering the voting booths with several people and filling out several forms, telling their relatives what to vote for, etc. Obviously, labour won in these cities. They're allowed to do that - people are allowed to vote on behalf of others, which means in some islamic households, the man can vote twice or more.