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RICKY5
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23 Jan 2010, 12:11 am

The economy is like a bad flu that causes social decay and major natural disasters (Katrina, New Madrid Faultline erupting) are the bloody diarrhea that causes riots.

Then of course you have the issues of cultural resilience. If you have a disaster in a place where people have been conditioned to rely on an external force for help, then things get worse quick.



Master_Pedant
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23 Jan 2010, 12:36 am

ruveyn wrote:
pandd wrote:
ruveyn wrote:

Has the current Chinese government had any further problems since Tienamen Square?

Yes.


One the Army goes into the Muslim western part of China the trouble will be shortlived. Dead people don't riot much.

The answer to rioter is machine gun fire and fragmentation weapons.

ruveyn


When Orwell said you were a fascist (note the small "f"), I thought he was exaggerating. Apparently not.



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25 Jan 2010, 10:42 am

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... id=topnews

Of the mistakes made by the Obama administration, the decision to print money to buy mortgage backed securities was perhaps the most serious. In a misguided effort to save the foolhardy and the irresponsible, America’s leaders have imperiled the position of the U.S. dollar as the world’s pre-eminent currency and set the stage for a devastating decline. The effects will not be felt in the near term, but all Americans will be paying for these acts of folly for decades to come. They chose to spare this generation the pain, only to ensure that future generations will be left with nothing but the crushing burden of a worthless currency and debt which the children have no hope of repaying.



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25 Jan 2010, 10:47 am

Hmmm...I can definitely see it getting worse from now.

Too bad I don't have the financial means to get out of the U.S. >_<


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Zeno
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25 Jan 2010, 7:36 pm

More and more Americans will start to think of leaving but, for the time being at least, nowhere else can offer the same standard of living or else reserves the privileges only for its own citizens. But as conditions start to deteriorate, there will be an exodus of the best and brightest that fatally undermines the strength of the economy. Other countries in Central and South America have experienced the same crushing effects of debt and capital flight (human and financial). Mexico is a very good example of what happens when mismanagement, financial crises and social dislocation pushes its most talented people out of the country. No matter what is done, the Mexican economy seems stuck in second gear. And no matter what measures are taken, the country is increasingly, and perhaps inexorably, becoming a narco-state.

The flow of drugs across the Mexican border is another vector that bears watching. The pain of unemployment and underemployment will lead to a sharp rise in substance abuse in the United States. Whatever you want – ice, crack, smack or just plain old pot – the Mexicans stand as the lowest cost and most reliable supplier. America uses guns against the cartels, but the cartels uses drugs against America’s youth. Who do you think will win? This epidemic of drug use, especially amongst America’s frustrated youth, will radically alter the makeup of American society. The violence and hopelessness will engulf America’s cities as a generation brought up to believe that they could not lose stumble straight out of the gate and fall into the pit of addiction. Perhaps then some of America’s legislators will look back and regret pushing so many Latino kids out of school and onto the streets, thereby providing the best corps of foot soldiers that the Mexican cartels could hope for, when their own children or grandchildren are ensnared by the fatal claws of the snuff demon.

It will get worse, a lot worse and it will not improve. The price for 2009’s extravagant economic band aids will have to be paid for throughout the rest of this decade. Who knows how the tab for years prior to 2009 will be covered. It is not healthy for Americans to do so little and yet want so much, but I have come to conclude that Americans simply cannot help themselves. It is like the fat guy and the chocolate fudge cake – does it make sense to blame the cake for being so delicious?



MissConstrue
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25 Jan 2010, 7:42 pm

Zeno wrote:
More and more Americans will start to think of leaving but, for the time being at least, nowhere else can offer the same standard of living or else reserves the privileges only for its own citizens. But as conditions start to deteriorate, there will be an exodus of the best and brightest that fatally undermines the strength of the economy. Other countries in Central and South America have experienced the same crushing effects of debt and capital flight (human and financial). Mexico is a very good example of what happens when mismanagement, financial crises and social dislocation pushes its most talented people out of the country. No matter what is done, the Mexican economy seems stuck in second gear. And no matter what measures are taken, the country is increasingly, and perhaps inexorably, becoming a narco-state.

The flow of drugs across the Mexican border is another vector that bears watching. The pain of unemployment and underemployment will lead to a sharp rise in substance abuse in the United States. Whatever you want – ice, crack, smack or just plain old pot – the Mexicans stand as the lowest cost and most reliable supplier. America uses guns against the cartels, but the cartels uses drugs against America’s youth. Who do you think will win? This epidemic of drug use, especially amongst America’s frustrated youth, will radically alter the makeup of American society. The violence and hopelessness will engulf America’s cities as a generation brought up to believe that they could not lose stumble straight out of the gate and fall into the pit of addiction. Perhaps then some of America’s legislators will look back and regret pushing so many Latino kids out of school and onto the streets, thereby providing the best corps of foot soldiers that the Mexican cartels could hope for, when their own children or grandchildren are ensnared by the fatal claws of the snuff demon.

It will get worse, a lot worse and it will not improve. The price for 2009’s extravagant economic band aids will have to be paid for throughout the rest of this decade. Who knows how the tab for years prior to 2009 will be covered. It is not healthy for Americans to do so little and yet want so much, but I have come to conclude that Americans simply cannot help themselves. It is like the fat guy and the chocolate fudge cake – does it make sense to blame the cake for being so delicious?


Thanks but I think your "visions" are going too far and becoming unrealistic. As bad as America is, it is not like the end of the world for us *gasp*....Americans those (evildoers)

Really Zeno grow up.


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26 Jan 2010, 9:36 am

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/26/us/po ... et.html?hp

The State of the Union address this Wednesday marks the end of the time when things could still have been done to turn around an increasingly desperate situation. This is perhaps the last budget where an American President can still claim some degree of initiative. Gridlock politics and the unwillingness of creditors to continue funding American profligacy will basically mean that American fiscal policy henceforth will no longer be in executive hands.

There are things that America could have done to reverse the decline. Cutting Afghanistan loose for example would have helped a great deal. Unlike most people, I believe that Osama Bin Laden should not be killed because he is far too valuable to the American agenda. Why drop million dollar laser guided missiles on mud huts and rocks to kill a man whose projection helps win America critical support? Why pay for a fruitless and unwinnable war when the money could have been better spent keeping alive the critical agenda in education that is vital for American hope? It is far better to keep one Black or Latino child in school and off the streets then to chase the shadow of a ghost through ragged and hostile lands.

It has been said several times by different people that my indignation at how Latino children have been treated in this downturn is offensive. Since these kids are not Americans, or if they are born in the United States and are thus citizens their parents are often not Americans, these children have no claim to the public purse. Why then educate them at the public expense? The simplest reason would be to deny Mexican drug cartels access to these youths. The drug trade is all about distribution and in particular the quality of one’s distribution network. The better the people you recruit, the more efficient and profitable your operation will be. By choosing the military and retirees over the nation’s youth, America is quite literally burning its corn seed. These kids know how to find their way around and they blend right in. Often, if they did not tell you, you would not know that they were of Latino heritage. When the best of these Hispanic kids are sent into the waiting arms of the cartels, you can be guaranteed an explosion in the drug epidemic.

Why do I see what you so blatantly refuse to acknowledge? Ask yourself how the world has changed. Would any of you have believed just a few months ago that a Republican would win the Senate seat which Kennedy had held for so long? Perhaps it is because momentous change occurs in little increments that the gravity of the moment is lost on those who live it.



zer0netgain
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26 Jan 2010, 9:51 am

Zeno wrote:
More and more Americans will start to think of leaving but, for the time being at least, nowhere else can offer the same standard of living or else reserves the privileges only for its own citizens.


I saw a news story where they are pushing in Oregon to "tax the rich" to pay for a ton of state services for everyone else.

I can tell you what will happen if that passes.

The wealthy will sell their properties, their businesses, etc. and leave the state.

It happens every time.



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26 Jan 2010, 4:29 pm

zer0netgain wrote:
Zeno wrote:
More and more Americans will start to think of leaving but, for the time being at least, nowhere else can offer the same standard of living or else reserves the privileges only for its own citizens.


I saw a news story where they are pushing in Oregon to "tax the rich" to pay for a ton of state services for everyone else.

I can tell you what will happen if that passes.

The wealthy will sell their properties, their businesses, etc. and leave the state.

It happens every time.


Which is, in a way, quite amusing. Telling the government that they can't tax the upper class because they have enough money to leave...



Yogiboy
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26 Jan 2010, 4:48 pm

Zeno wrote:
If you live in America, you should buy a gun. A handgun to start but an AK-47 would probably be better. Learn to use it at the range and at least figure out how to chamber the round and switch the safety off. You are going to need these skills.

The ongoing political saga in California has created much of the preconditions for civil unrest. No matter what actually happens it is a certainty that hundreds of thousands of predominantly young Latino kids are going to be either thrown onto the streets or squeezed out of overcrowded classrooms. During these times of economic distress, the Californian Legislature is adamant about not raising taxes to fill a $25 billion hole in the FY 2010 Budget. Without additional revenue, the only other alternative is to cut spending. And the biggest item on the chopping block is expenditure on education for kids in poorer districts. As another wave of foreclosures sweep through the country and more families are forced into homelessness, the country may be forced over the tipping point.

What will you do when the riots start?

The LA Times has just been reporting that violent crimes in Los Angeles is at an all time low.
People that have lived in the inner city have just simply gotten sick of all the killing (as in the early 90's). Neighborhood watch groups, gang intervention counselors, and police focus has had an impact.



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26 Jan 2010, 8:41 pm

Zeno wrote:
America’s leaders have imperiled the position of the U.S. dollar as the world’s pre-eminent currency and set the stage for a devastating decline. The effects will not be felt in the near term, but all Americans will be paying for these acts of folly for decades to come. They chose to spare this generation the pain, only to ensure that future generations will be left with nothing but the crushing burden of a worthless currency and debt which the children have no hope of repaying.


You do realise that China, stupidly enough, put all her eggs in one basket and has her reserves in US debt? There can be no all-out economic war between the two countries because it would bankrupt them both - it is the economic equivalent of Mutually Assured Destruction with the Soviets. China needs the trade surplus with the US, the US needs Chinese credit, and both need US bonds and the US dollar to be credible. US fiscal policy is without doubt irresponsible and unsustainable, but the US is not Greece or Italy, at least not yet.

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nowhere else can offer the same standard of living or else reserves the privileges only for its own citizens.


You really need to travel more...

Quote:
It is not healthy for Americans to do so little and yet want so much, but I have come to conclude that Americans simply cannot help themselves.


Americans actually usually work pretty hard (have you ever even been to the US?) and in real terms wages have been stagnant for a while, the problem is not that they don't work hard enough, but that they're collectively not willing to pay the taxes needed for the government they want - present levels of spending on Medicare, Social Security, defence, etc can simply not be maintained with current levels of taxation.

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Since these kids are not Americans, or if they are born in the United States and are thus citizens their parents are often not Americans, these children have no claim to the public purse. Why then educate them at the public expense?


Again you show how little you really know about how the US works - all children residing in the school district have a right to attend government schools, regardless of citizenship. This is logical enough, as whoever they're living with presumably either owns the place (and hence pays the property taxes that fund the school system) or rents it (in which case they're paying the landlord the cost of his paying the property taxes).

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By choosing the military and retirees over the nation’s youth, America is quite literally burning its corn seed.


True enough.


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zer0netgain
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27 Jan 2010, 8:16 am

Avarice wrote:
zer0netgain wrote:
Zeno wrote:
More and more Americans will start to think of leaving but, for the time being at least, nowhere else can offer the same standard of living or else reserves the privileges only for its own citizens.


I saw a news story where they are pushing in Oregon to "tax the rich" to pay for a ton of state services for everyone else.

I can tell you what will happen if that passes.

The wealthy will sell their properties, their businesses, etc. and leave the state.

It happens every time.


Which is, in a way, quite amusing. Telling the government that they can't tax the upper class because they have enough money to leave...


Not so.

The JOBS which provide PROSPERITY for those who do not go out and start a business for themselves come 90% of the time from those wealthy enough to start a business and employ people to get the job done.

When you "soak the rich," you take away their incentive to take the risk of starting a new business or expanding an existing one. Soak them too much and they will move their business elsewhere or just shut it down and leave. It's wrong when it's done just to save a few bucks, but when you keep taxing them so that it becomes unprofitable to operate in your state, what else should they do?

People like to be critical of the wealthy, but as one commentator pointed out, Obama's plan to "tax the rich" focuses on people who make over $250,000 (per couple). However, of those people 90% of them are small business owners. So, only 10% of the "rich" being targeted are people who are likely wealthy because they inherited it from a family dynasty. The rest worked their butts off for what they have, and their work likely has provided jobs for others who would be unemployed. There is no way a person who runs a business is going to hire more people or start a new enterprise when the government has them in the "new tax cross hairs."

I'm not a "greed is good" advocate per se, but there is no denying that the profit motive is a massive carrot to induce people to work hard and take risks. When you make it so that it's more profitable to be a flat wage earner than an entrepreneur, then the jobs go away and working for the government is your best chance for prosperity, and every nation that has followed that path ceases to be an economic powerhouse because the more people on the government payroll, the higher the taxes, with means the fewer companies actually producing a product.



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27 Jan 2010, 10:09 am

It was the Chinese who first resurrected the Cold War trope of M.A.D. as a way to mollify increasingly paranoid Western governments that even as China sought an alternative to the present global trade and financial system they would remain firmly engaged as they have a lot at stake. If we follow the Cold War analogy to its terminus, we will see that even though the United States was locked in an embrace with the Soviet Union, it was the Americans who came up on top as the Soviets disintegrated. Just because China does not plan to dump its vast holdings of American dollars does not imply that all is well for the United States. As the world’s preeminent manufacturing and trading powerhouse, there are many other ways for China to use its holdings of American treasuries to its advantage. China’s very successful diplomatic efforts in Africa are an example of what can be achieved if one has the money to make things happen. The issue of how China came to hold such a large claim against the United States is a very complex one and it is naïve to believe that the Chinese have been ‘stupid’ to allow it happen. Why then is America facing an intractable and unsolvable unemployment crisis whereas the Chinese are zipping along just fine? The advantage and initiative is in Chinese hands. They will determine what the next step in this high stakes game for the world will be. Whatever America chooses to do through proxies like Google will have no bearing on how the game plays out.

Believing that every child in America who wishes to attend school gets to do so is another widely held myth. Latino communities tend to be overflowing with illegal immigrants. Aside from sales tax, these families do not pay other taxes like income tax and because they often cram two or even three families into small homes, receipt from property taxes cannot possibly hope to cover the costs of providing services to them. A couple of years ago the difference was funded by state governments who paid for the salaries of teachers and the upkeep of the schools. But as state coffers started to run dry, the first thing governors did was to cut funding to these poor Latino communities. These decisions are very popular as other tax payers feel very strongly that the Hispanics should be pulling their own weight or that they should not even be there to begin with. But when the parents are illegal immigrants, even though the children may be Americans, it is simply not possible for these families to afford the additional tax burden assuming a way could be found to impose it. The result of this sharp pull back in funding is a drastic cut in teaching staff. Children are crammed so many to a class that they are better off not being there; you never know who is carrying a knife and girls have been raped in class without so much as a word of dissent from outnumbered, distracted and powerless teachers.

It is the blinding myths that undo America.



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27 Jan 2010, 11:16 am

Ah I see we have a chinese nationalist who can't stand the west in all of its glory.

You really do need to get out and travel more.

I agree that the U.S. isn't doing so well but your view on our education system is overblown.


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27 Jan 2010, 1:29 pm

MissConstrue wrote:
I agree that the U.S. isn't doing so well but your view on our education system is overblown.


And factually wrong. All a child needs to do to be admitted into a US government school is provide proof of residing in the school district. Schools are actually banned by law from asking about immigration status - sensibly so, given the long term problems it would create if they excluded illegal immigrants' children (I doubt China has the same attitude towards, say, North Korean illegal immigrant children). Unlike certain Chinese nationalists, I'm not getting this info from a totalitarian government's propaganda: I have actually lived in the US, and did a year of high school there. We were there legally (and paid our taxes), but the school never required us to prove it, merely to prove our address. The school had its English as a Second Language course for children with a poor command of English (those of us that passed a language test were put in the exactly same classes as the American kids), and I was given the choice to take one of my exams in my native language (I declined). Personally I very much doubt that Latino kids would have more opportunities in China, not least because of racial discrimination.

Zeno wrote:
As the world’s preeminent manufacturing and trading powerhouse, there are many other ways for China to use its holdings of American treasuries to its advantage.


For it to use them, those holdings have to be worth something. For them to preserve their value, the US must be able to borrow without too much cost or fuss, and the dollar must remain a credible reserve currency (incidentally, as long as the renminbi's exchange rate is set by government diktat rather than by the international currency markets, it will not be a credible reserve currency). In effect, the Chinese have bet their life savings on Washington's good credit and have little choice but to continue to lend, lest such credit deteriorate. Also, China is a manufacturing powerhouse largely because of exports to the West, and has the most to lose from a trade war, as is obvious from the trade surplus (though of course a trade war would also hurt the US).

Quote:
The issue of how China came to hold such a large claim against the United States is a very complex one and it is naïve to believe that the Chinese have been ‘stupid’ to allow it happen. Why then is America facing an intractable and unsolvable unemployment crisis whereas the Chinese are zipping along just fine?


I did not say that other Chinese policies were stupid, or that American policies are wise.


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31 Jan 2010, 8:52 pm

No Problem:

The rate of fire for the AK-47 is controlled by a panel on the side (at least for military variants) of the firearm, panel down and facing the same direction as the gis = safety, panel up at 45 degrees = semi-automatic fire one pull of the trigger shoots several rounds, panel facing up = fully automatic (never use that setting)