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Will Israel eventually have a pre-emptive strike on Iran?

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Will Israel eventually have a pre-emptive strike on Iran?
Yes 43%  43%  [ 10 ]
No 17%  17%  [ 4 ]
No, Iran will strike first so its not pre-emptive 4%  4%  [ 1 ]
No, the US will get the job done 13%  13%  [ 3 ]
Undecided 22%  22%  [ 5 ]
I thought Israel and Iran were allies 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Yes, but they will miss and hit US soldiers in neighbouring Iraq 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 23

jc6chan
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10 Feb 2010, 4:44 pm

Your opinions please...



Jacoby
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10 Feb 2010, 5:22 pm

It's inevitable. The only way I see things changing is if the Iranians somehow overthrow their Islamist government in the next year.



jc6chan
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10 Feb 2010, 5:53 pm

Jacoby wrote:
It's inevitable. The only way I see things changing is if the Iranians somehow overthrow their Islamist government in the next year.

or if Arabs take over the Israeli parliament due to high birth rates.



WorldsEdge
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10 Feb 2010, 6:12 pm

I honestly could care less, as long as it is made quite clear that it is done with neither the support nor backing of the United States.

And what form would this pre-emptive strike take, anyways? If they use conventional weapons via airstrikes or missiles it will be meaningless, if the goal is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. There's simply no way they could target every potential site, and even if they could, there's no way this could ensure the destruction of what Iran needs to develop nukes.

And if they use some of the 200 or so nuclear weapons everyone knows they have, what then? They truly become a pariah on the world stage...and probably STILL don't prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, if that is something Iran decides to pursue.

And they're certainly not going to be doing any invading of Iran. Anyone who thinks that needs a reality check in the worst way.

Since there seem to be several people who've answered "yes" to the poll question, I'm curious where they might think my analysis has failed.


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10 Feb 2010, 6:19 pm

I'm looking forward to it either way. Nothing like a good war between far off cultures and people not related to ones own. It's like watching the greatest movie or opera.

The israeli war in january 2009 against Hamas in the Gaza strip was really entertaining for me as a neutral observer.



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10 Feb 2010, 6:27 pm

I put yes because anything is disastrously inevitable over there now.


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WorldsEdge
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10 Feb 2010, 6:31 pm

J6chan wrote:
or if Arabs take over the Israeli parliament due to high birth rates.


If something like that ever happens, it will not be for a long, long, time. In fact, there's at least some evidence it will never happen, assuming roughly stable borders. Those alarmist estimates were from the mid to late '90s, and the reality of the situation has been different so far, especially since Gaza and the West Bank are no longer part of Israel.


Quote:
http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/111/d ... -time-bomb

Shifting Demographic Momentum

Today, in Israel, there are 5.7 million Jews and 1.45 million Arabs, with another 1.5 million Arabs living in the West Bank. With the Gaza Strip fenced off and separated from Israel, Jews now enjoy a 2 to 1 majority in Israel and the West Bank.

The demographic momentum has also recently shifted. Since 2000, Jewish fertility and immigration have been above, and Israel Arab fertility has plummeted below, all scenarios considered by Israel's demographers and the ICBS. Specifically, Jewish births have grown by 40 percent since 1995, while total Arab births have fallen back to decade-ago levels throughout Israel and the West Bank.

Large segments of the Orthodox Jewish population display the highest fertility rate at 4.8 births per woman, followed by Arab groups at 3.5 births per woman, while the large secular and traditional Jewish majority displays rising fertility rates of 2.2 births per woman. The latter group has become the determinant factor propelling Jews beyond the modest expectations set by Israeli demographers.

Moderate but persistent net aliyah (new Jewish immigration minus emigration plus returning Israelis) at current levels of 20,000 per year are sufficient to keep Israel's Jewish majority steady until 2025, when the current Jewish baby boomers begin to have children. The bottom-line shows Jews holding a strong demographic advantage today in Israel and the West Bank, exclusive of the Gaza Strip.



And besides, there's at least one group of Arabs who are counted as such but are also staunchly pro-Israel: the Druze. Sunni and Shia may despise each other given the right circumstances, but both consider the Druze vile heretics of the worst sort, probably much worse than they think of Christians or even Jews. Historically the Druze have done everything they can to hide their faith, but in Israel they get to openly practice it. They also serve in the Israeli military, where as I understand it,they've got a reputation for being ferocious fighters. Granted they're not a large group, but to presume that an Arab-Israeli is necessarily going to look to overthrow is Israel is an overstatement. Quite the contrary where the Druze are concerned.


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Last edited by WorldsEdge on 11 Feb 2010, 1:43 am, edited 1 time in total.

Jacoby
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10 Feb 2010, 6:40 pm

The fact that they might not get all of the nuclear facilities doesn't mean they won't try. Israel has a very powerful military and wouldn't have to much problem severely crippling or damaging Iran's nuclear program and their military.

I'm more worried about what Iran does in response. If they try anything with the Strait of Hormuz there would be a full scale invasion by a coalition of forces.

edit: btw I didn't make that quote! :P I think he was joking too.



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10 Feb 2010, 7:10 pm

If the Israelis get positive intelligence that the Iranians are about to launch a nuke, they will pre-emptively strike Iran. That is what happened in the 1967 war.

Israel cannot depend on the U.S. to defend Israel, nor should it. Each nation bears the onus of its own defense. The U.S. under the leadership of Obama and the looney left will sell out its own interests. How can any other nation depend on the U.S.?

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jc6chan
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10 Feb 2010, 7:11 pm

WorldsEdge wrote:

And besides, there's at least one group of Arabs who are counted as such but are also staunchly pro-Israel: the Druze.

Pro-Israel Arabs exist? That sounds like an oxymoron to be. Even Mahmoud Abbas whom the US calls "moderate" is really critical of Israel's policies. It's just that he decided not to use violence against Israel.



jc6chan
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10 Feb 2010, 7:14 pm

ruveyn wrote:
If the Israelis get positive intelligence that the Iranians are about to launch a nuke, they will pre-emptively strike Iran.

I wonder if the US had "positive intelligence" that Saddam Hussein's regime has WMDs before the invasion of Iraq?



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10 Feb 2010, 8:56 pm

I think that the political unrest in Iran will result in the regime being overthrown and replaced with a democracy, and I think we should all wait and see what happens with that.

My solution for now is to keep going with the sanctions, and fund opposition groups in Iran.


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10 Feb 2010, 9:03 pm

If it is not totally obliterating an unprovoked attack on any country unifies the country and consolidates the regime in control. If Israel wants to create a huge problem for itself it will militarily attack Iran and most probably regret it.



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10 Feb 2010, 10:49 pm

Sand wrote:
If it is not totally obliterating an unprovoked attack on any country unifies the country and consolidates the regime in control. If Israel wants to create a huge problem for itself it will militarily attack Iran and most probably regret it.


How would they regret it? If they don't then Iran is pointing nukes at them, that is preferable to them to what?

Even if the Ayatollah is overthrown, which I don't see happening any time soon, the protesters are unarmed while the government has a lot of guns and will not hesitate to ruthlessly crack down if it felt it's existence was threatened. I'm not completely sold that the whatever replaces the regime would be a pro-Western liberal democracy anyways if they ever succeed.

I don't know if anything short of a naval blockade would be a viable alternative to a military strike to stop Iran from getting the bomb.



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11 Feb 2010, 12:35 am

Jacoby wrote:
Sand wrote:
If it is not totally obliterating an unprovoked attack on any country unifies the country and consolidates the regime in control. If Israel wants to create a huge problem for itself it will militarily attack Iran and most probably regret it.


How would they regret it? If they don't then Iran is pointing nukes at them, that is preferable to them to what?

Even if the Ayatollah is overthrown, which I don't see happening any time soon, the protesters are unarmed while the government has a lot of guns and will not hesitate to ruthlessly crack down if it felt it's existence was threatened. I'm not completely sold that the whatever replaces the regime would be a pro-Western liberal democracy anyways if they ever succeed.

I don't know if anything short of a naval blockade would be a viable alternative to a military strike to stop Iran from getting the bomb.


Iran is a different cup of tea from Iraq, and certainly not as subject to victimization as Lebanon or the Palestinians. America is already having some uneasy feelings about Israeli open racism and brutality and an attack on Iran could be the tipping point in the area. I certainly am not enthusiastic about the religious totalitarianism of Iran but the trend towards a religious totalitarianism in Israel is also not particularly charming.



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11 Feb 2010, 1:08 am

I don't really understand what you're suggesting here.

I think Iran pointing nukes at Israel and our troops in the middle east and Israel pointing nukes back probably would be worse for the region than if Israel bombed just their nuclear facilities.