Happy 2013! In light of the year ahead, I thought we could share completely unsubstantiated and hypothetical arm chair predictions on what will happen in the world. Here are mine:
The U.S. should see its first year of meaningful growth. It probably won't be great by historical standards, but more people will feel like they have money in their pockets. The economy has deleveraged dramatically since 2007, and housing finally seems to be improving. There is always the threat that Washington will derail things, but Wall Street has signaled they are tired of gridlock, and spook leaders into action.
The E.U. will face another rough year, but I think it's clear the euro will survive. Power continues to shift into Germany, and it is clear that the German government want European unity. Additionally, more Europeans move within the Schengen area, leading to greater cultural mixing. This will lead to more federalism, and I believe a continuation of a pan-European national identity, even as different secessionist movements gain steam. I also believe this is the year it will be clear what they U.K's status in the E.U. will be -- it's current status is unsustainable.
On a side note, London's days as a world city will start to fade. 2012 was a high profile year for the city, but that won't save it from its rotting finance industry. Eurozone problems and tougher finance and immigration regulations will push bankers to Hong Kong and Singapore, and to a lesser extent New York. It's already happening.
China will have an uneasy year. No major problems there, but I think the growth of microblogging will make the Internet much too hard for the Chinese to police. That, and economic growth won't be as fast as it was the previous 30 years. There won't be political unrest, but Communist Party leaders will see they can no longer maintain consensus through economic growth alone.
Syria will start to implode, if not completely implode by 2014. Bashar al-Assad will be gone, but a democratic Syria probably won't replace it. Syria will probably fragment along ethnic lines, similar to the old Yugoslavia. None of the great powers will intervene, for they are all tired of foreign adventures. It may be that the colonial-era borders of the Middle East may start to disappear.
That's all the arm-chair predictions I have thus far. Share yours, and liberally. I know I went light on Asia, Latin America and Africa, so I want to hear predictions on those places.
01 Jan 2013, 1:21 am
