Economists say independent Scotland 'should keep pound'

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Tequila
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11 Feb 2013, 10:37 am

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Economists say independent Scotland 'should keep pound'
  • Scotland should retain the pound if it goes independent, according to a group of economic advisers which includes Nobel prize-winner, Joseph Stiglitz.
The future currency of Scotland, assuming a "yes" vote in next year's vote on independence, has been questioned by supporters and opponents.

Some argue Scotland would have to adopt the euro as a consequence of gaining full EU statehood, while others have called for a new currency or retention of sterling.

The Fiscal Commission Working Group, a panel of experts established by the Scottish Government, was asked by ministers to plan for how Scotland would become independent if there is a "yes" vote in the 2014 referendum.

If they join the EU, they will have to - eventually - accept the euro. It's a part of the conditions of joining that every single EU country must abide by. If it wants to keep sterling (or a Scottish pound pegged to it) then they will have to stay out of the EU. It's as simple as that.

I really can't imagine there's a huge amount of appetite in Scotland for joining the euro!



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11 Feb 2013, 12:00 pm

How close is Scotland to gaining it's independence?

I have been hearing about it for at least a year.


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11 Feb 2013, 3:25 pm

In my opinion, if Scotland gains its independence, it should abolish all government currency and legal tender laws, allowing for free banking. That would allow the market complete freedom to make their own currencies, without being tied to central banks.



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11 Feb 2013, 3:35 pm

BookPerson wrote:
In my opinion, if Scotland gains its independence, it should abolish all government currency and legal tender laws, allowing for free banking. That would allow the market complete freedom to make their own currencies, without being tied to central banks.



That was tried in the early days of America, and it was a complete clusterf**k disaster.

Banks and merchants would only accept notes from certain banks.


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Tequila
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11 Feb 2013, 3:38 pm

PM wrote:
How close is Scotland to gaining it's independence?

I have been hearing about it for at least a year.


The referendum on Scottish independence is next year. I expect a strong majority that want to stay in the UK.



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11 Feb 2013, 3:50 pm

PM wrote:
BookPerson wrote:
In my opinion, if Scotland gains its independence, it should abolish all government currency and legal tender laws, allowing for free banking. That would allow the market complete freedom to make their own currencies, without being tied to central banks.



That was tried in the early days of America, and it was a complete clusterf**k disaster.

Banks and merchants would only accept notes from certain banks.


Yes, but the market would have figured it out. At the very least, legal tender laws should be abolished. I personally think it's coercive to have a government monopolizing currency. (I should probably note that I am an Austro-Libertarian.)



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11 Feb 2013, 4:14 pm

The euro as a de-facto gold standard must be avoided at all costs. Why, a poll in Ireland shows that Sinn Fein supporters are most inclined to abandon the euro for the British pound. Sensible people they are.



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11 Feb 2013, 4:40 pm

xenon13 wrote:
Why, a poll in Ireland shows that Sinn Fein supporters are most inclined to abandon the euro for the British pound.


I would be against Ireland rejoining the Sterling Area. Dan Hannan (an anti-EU Tory MEP in Britain) suggested this some years ago.



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11 Feb 2013, 5:57 pm

I really don't have a problem with it - the Bank of England will continue to make policy for the UK only. It would drive up demand for the Pound, and a stronger Pound benefits us. Especially since there may well be a flood of Pounds on to the currency markets come 2015, when the SDR is rebalanced...



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11 Feb 2013, 6:04 pm

Tequila wrote:
xenon13 wrote:
Why, a poll in Ireland shows that Sinn Fein supporters are most inclined to abandon the euro for the British pound.


I would be against Ireland rejoining the Sterling Area. Dan Hannan (an anti-EU Tory MEP in Britain) suggested this some years ago.


since the demise of the celtic tiger I think they've been contemplating reinstating the punt.


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11 Feb 2013, 6:13 pm

I love how the SNP snubbed Pauline Marois. Other than that I think they are stronger part of the UK


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11 Feb 2013, 7:01 pm

I really do hope Alex Salmonds ego doesnt ruin our country.

I dont care what powers scotland wants but I really would be gutted if the Union Jack has gone.

Everyone hates politics. Everyone knows it doesnt work. But i hope we stay united.



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11 Feb 2013, 7:03 pm

Tequila wrote:
The referendum on Scottish independence is next year. I expect a strong majority that want to stay in the UK.


Exactly my thoughts.
I wonder if the independence vote is a no - will Salmond have the stones to resign and if the vote triggered a GE? Now that would be interesting if the there was a Scottish Election literally months before UK '15.
Oh man, my politics mind is spinning in entertainment if that happened. It'd be hysterical, utterly amazing time for politics for those two to be happening almost at the same time... :D



Tequila
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11 Feb 2013, 7:12 pm

thomas81 wrote:
I think they've been contemplating reinstating the punt.


Yes - and Hannan suggested going back to the pre-1979 linkage of the currency with Sterling.



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18 Feb 2013, 4:12 pm

If the last decade has taught us anything it is that a country which allows its monetary policy to be held in other hands is on a very short road to one of two ends: fiscal harmonization with the dominant partner in the currency (thus a surrender of fiscal sovereignty), or fiscal disaster (leading to a surrender of fiscal sovereignty).

There is only one sensible course of action for an independent Scotland: the estabslishment of a Scottish pound that is pegged to Sterling. That way the government still controls the money supply and interest rates, and can use devaluation as an instrument to protect distinct fiscal policy. Adoption of a foreign managed currency would be a recipe for disaster.


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18 Feb 2013, 5:12 pm

If an independent Scotland wanted to join the EU they could make an opt-out of the Euro a red line in their negotiations and possibly secure an opt-out, like ourselves and Denmark.

I can't personally see Scotland keeping Sterling in any form given the independence from London rhetoric from the SNP.