Page 1 of 1 [ 9 posts ] 

LoveNotHate
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 12 Oct 2013
Gender: Female
Posts: 6,195
Location: USA

06 Jan 2014, 7:40 pm

How high will the U.S. debt go ?

U.S. government Debt + Inter-government Holdings

1900 2.1 Billion
1910 2.65 Billion
1920 25.96 Billion
1930 16.185 Billion
1940 43 Billion
1950 257 Billion
1960 286 Billion
1970 371 Billion
1971 398 Billion
1973 458 Billion
1977 705 Billion
1978 776 Billion
1979 829 Billion
1980 909 Billion
1981 994 Billion
1982 1.137 Trillion
1983 1.371 Trillion
1984 1.567 Trillion
1985 1.817 Trillion
1986 2.120 Trillion
1987 2.345 Trillion
1988 2.601 Trillion
1989 2.867 Trillion
1990 3.206 Trillion
1991 3.598 Trillion
1992 4.001 Trillion
1993 4.535 Trillion
1994 4.80 Trillion
1995 4.989 Trillion
1996 5.323 Trillion
1997 5.502 Trillion
1998 5.614 Trillion
1999 5.776 Trillion
2000 5.662 Trillion
2001 5.943 Trillion
2002 6.405 Trillion
2003 6.998 Trillion
2004 7.596 Trillion
2005 8.170 Trillion
2006 8.680 Trillion
2007 9.229 Trillion
2008 10.700 Trillion
2009 12.311 Trillion
2010 14.025 Trillion
2011 15.223 Trillion
2012 16.433 Trillion
2013 17.352 Trillion
2014 Projected 18.14 trillion (projected 788 billion deficit)

Source, http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current for years 1993-2013
and from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of ... ublic_debt for years 1977-1992
and http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/repo ... histo3.htm
and http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/repo ... histo4.htm
and http://useconomy.about.com/od/fiscalpol ... eficit.htm

Take notice at the rate of doubling:

1973 to 1980 the debt doubled it took 7 years
1980 to 1985 the debt doubled, it took 5 years
1985 to 1992 the debt doubled, it took 7 years
1992 to 2005 the debt doubled, it took 13 years
2006 to 2013 the debt doubled, it took 7 years

It does not take very long for the U.S. debt to double.

Ask an American if they will ever pay back their debt, and their will smirk, or laugh, possibly loudly answer, "hell no".

The numbers are getting huge. It seems like we are reaching a point where no one will be able to finance our overspending ? And the inevitable crash awaits.

So, for how long will Americans find "suckers" to loan to them ? Can the debt double from 18.14 trillion?



lotuspuppy
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 14 Jan 2008
Age: 31
Gender: Male
Posts: 995
Location: On a journey to the center of the mind

06 Jan 2014, 8:42 pm

That really depends on a few factors:

1.) Congress allows it (and we have seen that is not always the case
2.) The currency of U.S. debt. At present, all U.S. debt is in U.S. dollars (I think the very little debt issued in Deutsche marks has been retired now). If there is ever a situation where the government cannot service its debts, it can always inflate currency to pay for the debt, while issuing new debt. Of course, the interest rate would be higher, and the government may not even need debt if it decides to inflate the currency to pay for debts. If U.S. debt is anything but dollar denominated, that leaves it up to the lenders. Which leaves me with
3.) If debt grows more slowly than GDP, then debt can grow infinitely. Of course, debt growing at a faster rate than GDP is unsustainable, as the past few years have shown. Nevertheless, debt has historically outpaced U.S. GDP growth during times of war and recession. As this last recession is greater in depth and breadth than all other postwar recessions, it is unsurprising the U.S. needs to take out debt to maintain a functioning government.



Cash__
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 6 Nov 2010
Age: 51
Gender: Male
Posts: 1,381
Location: Missouri

06 Jan 2014, 8:43 pm

That's hard to say. Americans are not going to curtail it on their own. They'll keep running it up until the 'suckers' say enough. You really need to ask them.



zer0netgain
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 2 Mar 2009
Age: 52
Gender: Male
Posts: 6,612

06 Jan 2014, 9:23 pm

Historically, a nations debt grows until the currency is no longer trusted by other nations. In short, when the currency collapses.

The ability of a nation to leverage its debt hinges on the perception that there are real assets to honor that debt. America passed that point LONG AGO, but so did most every modern nation with a centralized banking system. So, I suppose nobody can afford to call us on the debt knowing they are just as precarious at this point.

Still, that doesn't keep us safe. All one nation has to do is accumulate enough real wealth to be the big player on the world stage (e.g., China) and then they could collapse all global currencies and force everyone to accept their currency as the basis of exchange. They'd cash in big time, but everyone else would be devastated by the exchange rate.



91
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 30 Oct 2010
Age: 35
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,063
Location: Australia

06 Jan 2014, 9:49 pm

zer0netgain wrote:
Still, that doesn't keep us safe. All one nation has to do is accumulate enough real wealth to be the big player on the world stage (e.g., China) and then they could collapse all global currencies and force everyone to accept their currency as the basis of exchange. They'd cash in big time, but everyone else would be devastated by the exchange rate.


Chinese public debt is rising faster than the US, although it is smaller at just over 50% of GDP, corporate debt is over 100%. The most worrying thing about Chinese debt is that it has accumulated so quickly. The Indian economy carries substantially more. The debt problem is not just in the US and Europe, pretty much every major power has taken on extensive debt. The argument that the US currency will collapse and everyone will just start using the RNB is a major stretch.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bcb4d462-7138 ... z2pg0qXt3C
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ameri ... ebt-2013-4


_________________
Life is real ! Life is earnest!
And the grave is not its goal ;
Dust thou art, to dust returnest,
Was not spoken of the soul.


ruveyn
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 21 Sep 2008
Age: 84
Gender: Male
Posts: 31,502
Location: New Jersey

06 Jan 2014, 9:54 pm

LoveNotHate wrote:
How high will the U.S. debt go ?

U.S. government Debt + Inter-government Holdings

1900 2.1 Billion
1910 2.65 Billion
1920 25.96 Billion
1930 16.185 Billion
1940 43 Billion
1950 257 Billion
1960 286 Billion
1970 371 Billion
1971 398 Billion
1973 458 Billion
1977 705 Billion
1978 776 Billion
1979 829 Billion
1980 909 Billion
1981 994 Billion
1982 1.137 Trillion
1983 1.371 Trillion
1984 1.567 Trillion
1985 1.817 Trillion
1986 2.120 Trillion
1987 2.345 Trillion
1988 2.601 Trillion
1989 2.867 Trillion
1990 3.206 Trillion
1991 3.598 Trillion
1992 4.001 Trillion
1993 4.535 Trillion
1994 4.80 Trillion
1995 4.989 Trillion
1996 5.323 Trillion
1997 5.502 Trillion
1998 5.614 Trillion
1999 5.776 Trillion
2000 5.662 Trillion
2001 5.943 Trillion
2002 6.405 Trillion
2003 6.998 Trillion
2004 7.596 Trillion
2005 8.170 Trillion
2006 8.680 Trillion
2007 9.229 Trillion
2008 10.700 Trillion
2009 12.311 Trillion
2010 14.025 Trillion
2011 15.223 Trillion
2012 16.433 Trillion
2013 17.352 Trillion
2014 Projected 18.14 trillion (projected 788 billion deficit)

Source, http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current for years 1993-2013
and from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of ... ublic_debt for years 1977-1992
and http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/repo ... histo3.htm
and http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/repo ... histo4.htm
and http://useconomy.about.com/od/fiscalpol ... eficit.htm

Take notice at the rate of doubling:

1973 to 1980 the debt doubled it took 7 years
1980 to 1985 the debt doubled, it took 5 years
1985 to 1992 the debt doubled, it took 7 years
1992 to 2005 the debt doubled, it took 13 years
2006 to 2013 the debt doubled, it took 7 years

It does not take very long for the U.S. debt to double.

Ask an American if they will ever pay back their debt, and their will smirk, or laugh, possibly loudly answer, "hell no".

The numbers are getting huge. It seems like we are reaching a point where no one will be able to finance our overspending ? And the inevitable crash awaits.

So, for how long will Americans find "suckers" to loan to them ? Can the debt double from 18.14 trillion?


It can go up indefinitely. If we repay the bond holders then it will be with money that buys a lot less than the money they lent in the first place.

ruveyn



Jacoby
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 10 Dec 2007
Age: 29
Gender: Male
Posts: 14,284
Location: Permanently banned by power tripping mods lol this forum is trash

07 Jan 2014, 12:24 am

I read that we actually owe something like $75 trillion in debt



LoveNotHate
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 12 Oct 2013
Gender: Female
Posts: 6,195
Location: USA

07 Jan 2014, 2:45 am

Jacoby wrote:
I read that we actually owe something like $75 trillion in debt


Those are promises that can be broken ..

social security unfunded liability is shown as 16.7 trillion
prescription drug unfunded liability is 22.21 trillion
medicare unfunded liability is shown as 88.3 trillion

total unfunded liability is 127 trillion

there are even more unfunded liabilities like federal government pensions

source, http://www.usdebtclock.org/



Moviefan2k4
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 20 Sep 2013
Age: 40
Gender: Male
Posts: 943
Location: Texas

07 Jan 2014, 2:47 am

It will continue to rise so long as those in power continue to spend more than they have, and very few citizens make an effort to change anything.


_________________
God, guns, and guts made America; let's keep all three.