Donald Trump

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Will his base vote for him still? Some of them still, yes.

However, 2020 has a different environment than 2016:

(1) Millenials rather than baby boomers have voting power - millenials voted the most against Trump
(2) Trump is no longer seen as the candidate who will 100% lose - more on the left will vote and less will protest vote
(3) Trump's base isn't as diverse as it used to be - there's already a drop off of his supporters, especially Alex Jones fans

With # 3 a drop-off is normal for second term when compared to first term. Obama, who has a higher approval rating than Trump, even showed a decrease in voter turn-out. Keep in mind, Obama ALSO won the popular vote TWICE. Trump didn't win the popular vote - Hillary did, so this loss will hurt him even deeper than it did Obama in his second term.

The above paragraph isn't even taking in points #1 and #2. #1 marks the first time in history when millenials have more power at the voting booths than baby boomers - Trump's approval rating among millenials is currently only 33% (with 60% going as far to label him "mentally unfit"); if you want Trump to win - that isn't good. Especially since millenials are far more politically active than they used to be prior to 2016 - just look to 'March For Our Lives' for example, that movement is all youth based. In a way, Trump woke kids up by showing us what happens when people don't vote or use their vote to protest.

#2 the media sold Trump as a clown and sure loser, which resulted in many on the left believing it was safe to either not vote or to protest vote since odds were 110% that Hillary was going to win. Meanwhile the right were sold the horror story of Trump losing, thus they turned out in mass - since even one of them not turning up could mean that Trump loses. This time around there's zero faith in the media knowing who will win or lose and the left sees more at stake = less protest votes, more voting in the election, different voting climate overall.

As said, will Trump's base decline? Obviously yes, it already has (and this happening is normal). So you saying you'll still vote for him isn't surprising. However, that does not mean all of Trump's voters are still with him (which, since he lost the popular vote, will especially hurt him) or that it's the same political environment as 2016. These new attributes don't bode well for Dotard Trump.

Since, you'll say say "economy" - popular vote went to Hillary partly because most trust Democrats with the economy over Republicans. You will vehemently disagree, but statistically this is the mass view. 2016 voters recalled - (1) last Republican president ended with ushering in the Great Recession, (2) Obama saved the country from the Great Recession, despite a slower upward swing than one would hope for, (3) the last time the economy thrived was under Bill Clinton in the 90s. Despite all of this, Hillary still lost. Thus, in 2016 if economy was the only gauge - Hillary would have won since, statistically, most trusted Democrats rather than Republicans with the economy. Seeing that the left and right currently largely disagree on who's to credit with the trajectory of the economy, in 2020 it'll still be soap box domain. This isn't to say if left or right are right, but rather how the majority statistically think which is what determines votes.

A war typically helps, it did in Bush's case. But, in Trump's case - since many consider him mentally unhinged statistically, it'd just motivate the left to do anything to get him out faster and it'll signal to the "never Trump" right to do the same. One wants a Commander and Chief who is calm and confident under pressure, rather than one who throws hissy fits daily on twitter. You'll view him differently, but this is why most statistically view him as being unhinged.

As said, lightning usually doesn't strike twice and the odds are against Trump in 2020 more than they were in 2016. The statistics and voting patterns just aren't currently in his best interest.

Last edited by Spooky_Mulder on 05 Jun 2018, 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

^
Only time will tell who's right and who's wrong about how the election goes. If the dems win I think it's safe to say that you won't be seeing republicans crying on TV or rioting in the streets. As for me, I'll march on as usual.

Well, here on WP where it's legal for liberals to attack conservatives but of course not the other way around, I've been called the following: Troll, paid troll, mindless shill, bully, brain dead rat turd, twerp, moral degenerate, dangerous psychopath, and sick sociopath.
Just pick one, or pick several and make a "deplorable" salad.
Better be quick, though, before this post mysteriously disappears as others of mine have.

A lot of people love Donald Trump because he is keeping patriotic mythology alive through pathetic desperation. People love Trump because they want to continue believing in the myth of American exceptionalism, even though this myth is under attack from reality.

A lot of Trump supporters say "Trump puts America first! He makes me proud to be an American!" Sadly, this mentality is still common, even in the Information Age.

For some people, the country is all that matters.

Socrates said "I am not an Athenian or a Greek, but a citizen of the world." The wisdom of this man is, arguably, the foundation for all Western Philosophy. Despite this, the Western masses continues to disregard his wisdom.

In the past, I have gotten mod warnings for attacking conservatives.

The hypocrisy that you perceive does not exist.

That is the right wing norm.

They bemoan Kathy Griffin, while they celebrate Ted Nugent getting invited into the White House (he made death threats to Obama which were severe enough that the secret service had to be called in). https://www.cnn.com/2012/04/21/opinion/obeidallah-ted-nugent-free-speech/index.html

They bemoan protestors, while they forget 'The Tea Party' and how they literally walked around with death threats towards Obama hinting at lynchings. https://www.google.com/search?biw=1169&bih=873&tbm=isch&sa=1&ei=RdEWW4e3KcqkzwLrt6nABg&q=protesting+obama&oq=protesting+obama&gs_l=img.3...40979.43456.0.43771.20.15.2.3.3.0.161.1320.9j4.13.0....0...1c.1.64.img..2.14.899...0j35i39k1j0i67k1j0i30k1j0i5i30k1j0i8i30k1.0.yOCVYFapUTU#imgrc=XqunoghG0IQgyM:

They bemoan the left continuing to trash Trump, while they forget they did so for eight years - they say the left "blames" everything on Trump whereas a lot of it is satirizing the right: a right winger could be seen stubbing his toe, then retorting "thanks, Obama."

They bemoan "left wing violence," while they conveniently ignore statistics that right wingers cause the most domestic terrorist attacks in the United States as found in a recent government sanctioned report on terrorism. https://theintercept.com/2017/05/31/the-numbers-dont-lie-white-far-right-terrorists-pose-a-clear-danger-to-us-all/

They bemoan football players kneeling during the anthem (kneeling being a suggestion from a soldier - it's a ritual the military does to honor the dead), while they celebrate Roseanne who grabbed her junk while singing during the anthem on live tv.

They bemoan a guy getting thrown out of a bar who wore a Trump hat, while celebrating the results of the recent Supreme Court cake ruling.

They bemoan the left being "snowflakes" for being against Trump's policies, meanwhile the right need (and have called for) a "safe place" from: Saturday Night Live, musicals, movies/music/tv/sporting events such as NFL games, any time the left criticizes Trump, and more.

They bemoan high school left-wing protestors (March For Our Lives) following in an age-old protest tradition of faking one's death, while they celebrate college conservatives (Turning Point) introducing wearing diapers publicly as protesting.

They bemoan leftist celebrities being involved with politics, meanwhile the right is the only wing that has ever elected an actor (who also performed with a monkey) to be President and he's the hero to many of them.

Examples can go on for infinity. It's selective memory. Truth is, examples can be found on many sides.

Last edited by Spooky_Mulder on 05 Jun 2018, 1:50 pm, edited 6 times in total.

Don't you know that the angel Muller is going to smite him before today is over?

That image is triggering, I need a safe space.

Reminds me of a quote from fellow aspie Einstein:

"Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind." - Albert Einstein

These are all reasons why he SHOULD lose.

But the Democrats are the Democrats, do not discount their ability to blow a sure thing. It is a party divided, if they nominate again via chicanery a corporate Democrat will the Bernie types stay home? If they nominate what the base wants a socialist, or a candidate with regressive left-leaning ideas will the never Trumpers go back home to the Republican party?

But as said it is all about the economy. Let fast forward to November 2020 and assume (yes it is a big assumption) that the perception is the economy is booming. If there is an election happening that means that Trump did not incinerate the world by starting a temper tantrum war, Trump did not destroy democracy and turn America into the Third Reich. Democrats running on the themes that he is "unstable" will look like the the boy who cried wolf. Trump will still be seen as a nasty person but his daily drama will have become normalized, that process has started.

A few months ago a "blue wave" that will lead to Trump's impeachment looked like a sure thing and for good reasons. In the Special elections either Dems won or lost but did historically well for their district. Trump's approval ratings were around 35 percent. The meta Generic polls that asked would you vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress showed the Dems leading by 12 points or so. The out of power party traditionally does well in midterms. Only the last factor is still true, Trump is around 41 percent and the Generic Congressional polls are around 3 to 5 percent. The 'blue wave" does seem so inevitable anymore.

50 years ago at the height of the anti war protests the assumption was that the boomers were really gonna shake things up and vote morality not pocketbook. The 18 year olds got the vote in '72 and Nixon won in one of the biggest landslides ever and decades later the boomers running things nearly bankrupted the world. Are mellenials really a different breed of people?

The Democrats are divided, that is a truth. However, with that said, many protest votes occurred in 2016 since it was perceived as a safe election. 2020 wouldn't be painted in the same light due to how 2016 played out. Will "Bernie or Busters" still be around? Undoubtably and there's been protest voters in every single election.

Thus far, just two years away - Trump is still statistically seen as mentally unfit (which is leagues worse than just mere "disapproval"). So is it impossible that will change? No. But, nothing is really impossible - statistically speaking however, nothing's pointing towards a shift in perception any time soon. Also, generally, second terms result in having less people voting for you. For Trump to be safe, his approval would need to increase and the amount of people voting for him would need to increase as well. That would be a rare occurrence, especially rarer considering how Trump's favorability stacks up against prior Presidents statistically speaking.

Some believed it would lead to definite impeachment. However, in the election more right-wing seats are safe in 2018 due to timing while more left-wing seats are not. Is it impossible for Democrats to entirely take back the house? No. But, again, the odds are statistically not in that favor. Will left win more seats than right? Undoubtably there will be a shift and some ruby red states may shift blue - just not the house as that's statistically a very narrow window. As per impeachment hearings, Watergate took a long time and Pissgate would similarly. Anyone that hoped it would go fast was doing wishful thinking since past history doesn't point to that being the case with these kinds of hearings.

While boomers used to be seen as "the flower children," there were still articles calling the generation "sociopaths" which would hold true for many today (this will rub you the wrong way, but it is how many millenials and Xers view the boomer generation). As for voting out of pocket book? Millenial left are still doing that and that is why many are far left, against capitalism - thus far all it's resulted in is continuously running into a brick wall that's widening the economic divide (thus, it's less "socialism is the answer" than it is "the past ways don't work, it's time for something radically new and different"). You will likely disagree, but this is how millenials view the economy and why they are against both political parties. So can a capitalist fat cat suddenly win millenials over and make them do a 180? Highly doubt it. Not impossible, but it would similarly need a "miracle" to occur.

As per millenials being different people - outside of economically - less are white (thus racism does have an impact upon this generation), less are Christians (thus conservative Christian beliefs such as those against lgbtq are off-putting), more have defined themselves as not being straight compared to earlier generations (thus more are more clearly impacted by conservative anti-lgbtq proposed legislation), more experience economic hardship than earlier generations - reports indicate this generation is closer to the Great Depression generation that the baby boomers are, and more have experienced school shootings (thus earlier generations are losing younger generations in the gun debate). So, millenials are basically different due to both biology and subjective experiences (all generations are inherently different).

As per likelihood of these proposed shifts - Trump's approval rating has statistically been in decline since November 2016. Since the administration has been around for 2 years and Trump has repeatedly shown who he is and what he stands for, I don't see Trump himself changing in 2 years time. Viewing the administration and the statistics for two years, it shows a pattern of a generally downwards trend. Can a new variable be entered into that equation? Nothing's impossible, but I wouldn't call that highly likely as well since the odds are currently not in the favor of that big of a shift occurring.

Bet I get more...

Boomers changed things socially with sex, drugs, and rock and roll, millennials are changing them socially with sexual identity and ways/devices of communicating but will they destroy the basic financial motive or just reform and update it?. The millennials do not think much of the boomers for selfishly wrecking the economy and they are the generation that has to undue their parent's mess, and the boomers think they are a bunch of selfish spoiled brats. This is natural, the boomers thought their parents were conformists to the military-industrial complex and they were going to undo that mess, their parents thought they were a bunch of entitled brats. The "me generation" was not coined about millennials but boomers.

Trump will be Trump and for him to be reelected the Democrats really have to screw it up big time. The progressives after 2016 should not take 2020 for granted but every day I see yet another prediction of Trump's inevitable fall so it makes me wonder. These are variations of the ones I have been hearing for three years now yet he is still in White House.

Don't think you are offending me by criticizing the boomers, I have been saying similar things about my generation for 40 years now. That is one reason why I got into punk and new wave when they first came out.

Definitely agree with all in the first paragraph. Unfortunately, the fight against the military industrial complex rages on and it is still uncertain if the millenial generation can avoid going in the same direction that the baby boomers did. In a way it reminds me of the same themes explored in 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi.'

I think, but I could be wrong, that those who constantly say "he's going to be impeached next week/month" are neurotypicals whose actions and thought patterns are more emotional, rather than logic based, and are thereby impulsive. But, I'm unsure.

Ah, cool. Punk is my favorite music and I would have loved to have been around during the CBGB days. All I know is I've offended many boomers whenever I've openly criticized their generation.

I am sure most of those who are not looking at the situation logically are NT’s because the vast majority of people are NT’s.

I know the original wave of punk, new wave, and post punk is still popular and influencial which is great but understandably at lot of the original context is lost 4 decades on. It was an insurgency of sorts against hippies “selling out” and becoming yuppies, making stale bloated versions of 60’s rock. The hippies were optimists and emotional (love, love love) so the punks became cynics and had an unemotional presentation. I think you could understand why it would appeal to me an undiagnosed autistic person.

I will share a not so social rule of sorts. Most older people resent bieng told by younger people their generation screwed up, their ideas are old and they need to get out of way for the young people to clean up thier mess and make a better world. Even if they agree the young will be viewed as naive, spoiled and ungrateful.

Democrats could easily win if their constituencies would vote.

However, minorities, young people are terrible at actually voting.

Trump
1) stock market booming
2) super low unemployment
3) tax cuts

Trump ratings are rising, both his "Job Approval on Economy" and "Job Approval".
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6182.html

Lastest CNN poll puts his "Job Approval on Economy" at 54%, the highest of his presidency
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/08/politics ... index.html

Looks like a slam dunk for Trump, unless Democrats can get people out to vote.

Voter intimidation is a major factor here.