The all encompassing UK General Election thread!

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Lmao

YouGov use a slightly more sophisticated model than polling alone, which historically has proven very accurate (it successfully predicted a lot of the unexpected swings in 2017 like Canterbury, Kensington, and Sheffield Hallam).

I was using a much less sophisticated methodology than YouGov called "making things up".

Farage possibly throwing a real spanner in the works for Johnson with his demand for a pact that he has 2 weeks to decide on. No huge surprise at all that he wants the pact but in his launch he has really gone for the Tories throats and said they need to agree to drop the current deal completely (which would never happen)

everything's a negotiation though so I am not getting too excited

Was a genius move by Farage after speaking to Trump yesterday to get the spotlight

I have always been suspicious that Farage just wants the Brexit debate to continue for as long as possible with no conclusion as that is how he stays 'relevant' and earns his money. No idea if that is true at all, just always been a hunch. His annoucement today certainly plays to that theory.

::dons conspiracy hat::

I'm not even sure how the SNP would even work in a coalition. Their first demand would be another referendum on Scottish Independence which would be political suicide for the UK. Their beliefs are too much at odds with the best interests of the UK for them to be involved in our government.

I don't think the Lib Dems and Labour are compatible either (unless the Libs are willing to jettison their principles again) as the Lib Dems want to revoke Article 50 and stop Brexit while Labour seem more intent on an EU-Deal Brexit.

No it doesn't because the Johnson treaty isn't 'brexit'. But I also have that hunch.

Tories have a seven point lead in the polls over Labour opposition party ahead of a december 12th election.


REUTERS

One off polls dont really mean much at all tbh. You need to look at the method of polling, follow them over a period of time to see changes and trends and also take into account that they are not intended to be precise.

Plus I think polls mean less than before in this GE as it could be seen as a 4 way election with one party who haven't stood before.

Boris Johnson compares Jeremy Corbyn to Stalin.

The start of the election campaign feels like it has been a bit of a car crash from the Tories

This was true about a decade ago when I downloaded it. I'm not sure if it still is.

Leave Alliance confirmed. Farage says he will not stand any MP's in the 317 Conservative seats. Least surprising news of the election campaign so far.

Precisely the kind of thing that puts people off from intending to vote Labour .

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/u ... l-it-likes

Lab, Libs & SNP need to come to some agreement sooner rather than later if they are to realise my hung parliament dream

Disagree. That would hurt all of them.

In Scotland, for example, Independence is as big an issue as Brexit. While there's basically a single nationalist party, there are three major unionist parties (potentially plus the Brexit Party although I don't think they'll get many votes). If Labour and the Lib Dems seem too pally with the SNP then it will cost them votes to the Tories. I actually don't think there's any reason for a "remain alliance" in Scotland as the SNP are polling strongly and the Lib Dems have taken a lot of votes off the Tories. It is possibly Scotland will be entirely yellow of various shades after this election.

In England, there is a pretty widespread assumption that a substantial majority of people who vote Labour prefer the Lib Dems to the Tories, and vice versa. I am not at all sure that is true, and particularly in marginal seats. If you're voting for the third party in a two-way marginal then chances are you don't think much of either of the main options and might not vote at all if they were your only options. There are lots of people who would never consider voting Lib Dems because they perceive them to be too European, too soft on crime, too pro-immigration. Perhaps more significantly, there are a lot of people who would never vote Labour because they think they're too supportive of Scottish independence, too keen on tax rises, too antisemitic, too "led by Jeremy Corbyn".

In 2015 the Tories got a majority because Lib Dem voters switched their votes to the Tories to stop Miliband. If, for a second, the Lib Dems looked like they would work with Corbyn, there is a good chance that would happen again. The Lib Dems would fall back to 8% and the Tories would be up around 50%.

If you want to beat the Conservatives then don't look for ways to rig the game, because they probably won't work. Look for ways to win the game.