Trump could lose to Bernie if he's not careful

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I think Saagar Enjeti makes a great point in this video. Trump's instincts in 2016 were great in how he hammered home how the elite weren't working for the working class, and really playing on their resentment on how the system is rigged against them. However, there are now red flags, because 50% of lower income Republicans don't believe the economy is working for them, which could lead to them getting captured by Bernie. People are still struggling with low wages, health care costs, and other issues, so simply waving a flag of "socialism sucks" isn't necessarily going to help, especially when you have an opponent like Bernie, who will frequently give the mike over to lower income people and who also has a really good instinctual understanding of them.



Trump's problem is that his signature achievement was tax cuts that largely helped only the rich, and him surrounding himself with establishment figures in his administration.

I agree with Tim_Tex who said that the media seems to be focusing all its attention on Biden. Some would probably argue propping him up. Unless the media shifts to put its unified focus (it's always unified) on Bernie, then Bernie won't get the attention that's needed.

Bernie is probably unpalatable to many American people.

The plan should be to make sure the Democrats win the "swing states" which they lost in 2016. Like Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. The vast majority of the country are either "hard red," or "hard blue." We have to make the "somewhat reds" "somewhat blues." "Somewhat blue" will win you the state, and its electoral votes.

I don't think Bernie is going to accomplish this. Americans tend to get paranoid by somewhat socialist ideas.

Saagar seems to believe that Bernie can win the swing states, while Biden would struggle to. I would agree with Saagar.

A skepticism of socialism is something which is deeply embedded in the American psyche (perhaps unfortunately).

^ I don't think most Americans in swing states would regard Bernie as "somewhat socialist".

The issue is that in the Rust Belt, which takes up a huge chunk of the swing states, a lot of Americans feel left behind, resentful, and disaffected, and don't feel the economy is working for them. Trump hasn't done much to change their view of that, and remember they were the ones who gave Trump his victory to begin with. They're looking to shake things up. Bernie has spent quite a while focused on the working class, the very same type of people who live in the Rust Belt, and is quite willing to make radical proposals, so I think they can go for him.

Trump is going to lose if he just tries to paint Bernie as "socialist".

Moot point as Bernie won't win the primary.

How have these folks responded to Bernie previously?

Sure, there will be at least a few of them who are seeking relatively radical change----but I still feel most people, even "blue collar" people, outside major cities, have a deep undercurrent of conservatism within them.

What Bernie, and all Democrats, have to do, is to assess how willing many of these people are to embrace relatively radical change.

You're most likely right. The Democratic Party isn't a left-wing party, they're not going to allow a left winger to win the primary. They're going to work to ensure that Biden or Buttigieg gets the nomination because they'd rather lose with a centrist than win with a leftist.

If there is fighting and a deadlock, it could be the nominee would be Amy Klobuchar. She could win the swing states and probably would appeal to most center democrats.

I can't help routing for Andrew Wang. His words: Special needs are the new normal. God bless him.

Paths to victory for each of the major candidates:

Biden- hope the race continues at it has. Do ok early and then dominate in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday.

Warren- Regain the momentum she had earlier, win Iowa and New Hampshire and force Bernie to drop out of the race.

Sanders- Same as Warren in reverse only without the prior momentum. Also I think he's far less likely to execute it.

Buttegieg- Win Iowa, and do well in New Hampshire. Hope that his problems with African American voters evaporate.

Klobuchar- Win Iowa and do well in New Hampshire, hope Biden's support collapses and transfers to her.


Literally anyone else- No path to the nomination.

If I was a betting man, I'd say smart money is on Biden to win by inertia.

I truly wish we could have a "centrist activist" as the Democratic nominee.

Bernie coming back full bore from the heart attack has the "inspiration porn" thing going for him. If I was running his campaign I would definitely play up his persistence and toughness vs Trump's snowflackyness to mitigate the stigma the word "socialist" still has among older Americans.

biden's behavior is the textbook definition of "sundowning".

His name is Joe Biden.