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jimmy m
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25 Sep 2020, 9:36 am

The world has long fretted about the outbreak of a catastrophic war on the Korean peninsula but the real danger may lie some 1,000 miles away in the Taiwan Strait — where the largest army on the planet is flexing its increasing might against a democratic island of 24 million people.

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In recent days, jets of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have repeatedly crossed the midpoint of the strait that separates the mainland and Taiwan — their de facto border — triggering intercepts by the island’s frontline fighters.

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A People’s Liberation Army bomber flies near Taiwanese airspace last week. Beijing has threatened retaliation if its aircraft are attacked

Chinese flotillas are practising mine clearing to open up sea lanes for warships and landing forces, and Chinese soldiers have vowed to give up their lives should there be a war against Taiwan.

“If one day, the war breaks out, we would rush to the battlefield without any hesitation,” announced the PLA’s eastern theatre command, which would be the force to invade the island.

“We will protect every inch of the land of the motherland, every flower and every blade of grass. We’d never let down the motherland and our people!”

In Taiwan, the defence ministry has redefined procedures, allowing its soldiers to fire back when attacked, while its president struck a defiant tone against the mainland.

“We will never allow others to display their military might in our territorial airspace,” declared Tsai Ing-wen, as she toured a military base in Penghu, a string of small western islands that are on the furthest front of Taiwan’s air defences.

China has pledged to take Taiwan — which it considers unfinished business from the civil war in 1949 — back by force if necessary. For decades that seemed an unlikely threat, especially as Taiwan had a defence pact with the United States, but as relations plummet between Beijing and Washington, Taiwan could spark a clash that draws in the superpowers.

Source: Threat of war over Taiwan leaves superpowers on edge


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vermontsavant
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25 Sep 2020, 10:31 am

There won't be WW3 to many countries have nukes.Nukes are what prevented WW3 before and ended the cold war.

There will be little wars between countries but no mass war.NO!


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jimmy m
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25 Sep 2020, 10:54 am

vermontsavant wrote:
There won't be WW3 to many countries have nukes.Nukes are what prevented WW3 before and ended the cold war.

There will be little wars between countries but no mass war.NO!


That would happen if Taiwan were given Nukes. China would be more hesitant to invade Taiwan it they were a nuclear power.


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vermontsavant
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25 Sep 2020, 11:05 am

Isn't there some type moratorium on nuclear weapons where if you didnt have them by cold war's end,you can't develop them.
Or something to that effect.


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jimmy m
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25 Sep 2020, 11:10 am

vermontsavant wrote:
Isn't there some type moratorium on nuclear weapons where if you didnt have them by cold war's end,you can't develop them.
Or something to that effect.


But treaties are just words on a piece of paper unless they are enforced. Did Russia help the Chinese develop their nuclear program. Did China help the North Koreans. Did the North Koreans help the Iranians.


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vermontsavant
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25 Sep 2020, 11:49 am

jimmy m wrote:
vermontsavant wrote:
Isn't there some type moratorium on nuclear weapons where if you didnt have them by cold war's end,you can't develop them.
Or something to that effect.


But treaties are just words on a piece of paper unless they are enforced. Did Russia help the Chinese develop their nuclear program. Did China help the North Koreans. Did the North Koreans help the Iranians.
With Russia bordering both China and North Korea I would not be surprised if China or NK had Nuclear weapons,I don't think Iran does though.But Russia would go to the highest bidder on weapons and wouldn't care if there enemy or friend,any weapons not just nuclear.I don't think Iran has the money for what Russia would want for enriched uranium.


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25 Sep 2020, 12:11 pm

Fearmongers have been threatening World War Three since the end of World War Two.

That's 75 years of empty threats.

So when is the next asteroid strike?


:roll:


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25 Sep 2020, 1:55 pm

China can likely invade Taiwan within a few days, and they can likely do so before the US can scramble troops.

Chinese surface-to-surface missiles also have longer operational range than any US naval surface vessel (including easy-to-hit air craft carriers), so they can effectively project area denial as far away as perhaps Guam.

Also keep in mind that the US is 6,700 miles from Taiwan. China is 81 miles from Taiwan. For every dollar (or yuan, more precisely) China spends on military hardware, the US has to spend a lot more, as they also have to figure out how to move it more than 82 times the distance.

However, the economy of Taiwan is so dependent on China - and continued US engagement in East Asia so uncertain - that traditional Chinese "soft power" is more likely to be used rather than military force.

Deng Xiaoping once threatened Thatcher that China would invade Hong Kong if the UK didn't fully commit to handing it over by 1997. But he didn't need to act on it, now did he?

But if someone steals my sweet roll, there will be war, I tell you...



vermontsavant
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25 Sep 2020, 2:08 pm

GGPViper wrote:
China can likely invade Taiwan within a few days, and they can likely do so before the US can scramble troops.

Chinese surface-to-surface missiles also have longer operational range than any US naval surface vessel (including easy-to-hit air craft carriers), so they can effectively project area denial as far away as perhaps Guam.

Also keep in mind that the US is 6,700 miles from Taiwan. China is 81 miles from Taiwan. For every dollar (or yuan, more precisely) China spends on military hardware, the US has to spend a lot more, as they also have to figure out how to move it more than 82 times the distance.

However, the economy of Taiwan is so dependent on China - and continued US engagement in East Asia so uncertain - that traditional Chinese "soft power" is more likely to be used rather than military force.

Deng Xiaoping once threatened Thatcher that China would invade Hong Kong if the UK didn't fully commit to handing it over by 1997. But he didn't need to act on it, now did he?

But if someone steals my sweet roll, there will be war, I tell you...

That could happen at any time but that is not a world wide catastrophe as is described in this post.


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ASPartOfMe
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25 Sep 2020, 5:18 pm

Now would be the time to do it with the U.S. distracted and self destructing.


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The_Walrus
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26 Sep 2020, 8:52 am

Those who think there is a significant chance of this leading to imminent war - how confident are you? What odds would you need to be offered before you would be prepared to bet a substantial amount of money on it?



jimmy m
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26 Sep 2020, 9:20 am

Fnord wrote:
Fearmongers have been threatening World War Three since the end of World War Two.

That's 75 years of empty threats.

So when is the next asteroid strike?


:roll:


Fnord, remind me again, didn't you say about the same thing at the start of the COVID pandemic. That it really wasn't something to fear or panic about.


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jimmy m
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26 Sep 2020, 9:39 am

There is something interesting about this. It mirrors the U.S. relationship with China.

How much of an issue is independence in Taiwan?

While political progress has been slow, links between the two peoples and economies have grown sharply. Taiwanese companies have invested about $60bn (£40bn) in China, and up to one million Taiwanese now live there, many running Taiwanese factories.

Some Taiwanese worry their economy is now dependent on China. Others point out that closer business ties makes Chinese military action less likely, because of the cost to China's own economy.

Source: What's behind the China-Taiwan divide?

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The U.S. has invested substantially in China. Some might use the word "partnering". Many of our industries have relocated there. Before the COVID pandemic most Americans did not realize how dependent we were on China. Most of the worlds face mask are manufactured in China and as soon as the pandemic took hold, the Chinese government diverted these resources to China. Most of the worlds drugs are manufactured in China. We live in a very interconnected world. As a result, the U.S. is rethinking this arrangement and redirecting manufacturing back to the U.S. or to other neutral countries.

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After decades of hostile intentions and angry rhetoric, relations between China and Taiwan started improving in the 1980s. China put forward a formula, known as "one country, two systems", under which Taiwan would be given significant autonomy if it accepted Chinese reunification. The offer was rejected, but Taiwan did relax rules on visits to and investment in China. It also, in 1991, proclaimed the war with the People's Republic of China over.

The Chinese signed a treaty implementing a "one country, two systems" for Hong Kong. Recall the demonstrations in Hong Kong at the beginning of this year when China began to tear this treaty to shreds.


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26 Sep 2020, 10:09 am

As I recall, China has more or less delineated two "red lines" which would prompt an invasion of Taiwan:

- Taiwan declares independence
- The US stations troops on Taiwan

The former may be a bluff, but the latter is somewhat more credible, as it would be comparable to the Cuban Missile Crisis:

Cuba is approx. 100 miles from Florida (Key West), while Taiwan is approx. 80 miles from mainland China. For China, having its main military rival station troops (and potentially missiles) so close to its major cities will likely be a much worse scenario (just as it was for the US with Soviet missiles on Cuba) for China than the international outrage and political fallout over an invasion of Taiwan...

I think the biggest risk for a major military confrontation between China and the US is that both Taiwan and the US may be underestimating the willingness of China to actually invade Taiwan.

Nationalism is very strong in China, and has probably grown significantly during the Trump presidency. Even if the Chinese government doesn't *want* to take military action, its hand may be forced by domestic pressure from hard-liner factions in the CCP, the military and even public opinion.



jimmy m
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26 Sep 2020, 11:53 am

I remember the Cuban Missile Crisis when John Kennedy was president. It wasn't that the Russians were supplying missiles to Cuba but rather nuclear missiles to Cuba. "An agreement was reached during a secret meeting between Khrushchev and Fidel Castro in July 1962, and construction of a number of missile launch facilities started later that summer." This was all done in great secrecy. "The missile preparations were confirmed when an Air Force U-2 spy plane produced clear photographic evidence of medium-range (SS-4) and intermediate-range (R-14) ballistic missile facilities."

GGPViper wrote: "I think the biggest risk for a major military confrontation between China and the US is that both Taiwan and the US may be underestimating the willingness of China to actually invade Taiwan."

I tend to agree with that statement. But if Taiwan had nukes, China might be less likely to launch an all out invasion.


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26 Sep 2020, 12:17 pm

jimmy m wrote:
I tend to agree with that statement. But if Taiwan had nukes, China might be less likely to launch an all out invasion.

I can imagine someone in the Soviet Union had the same idea in 1962:

... But if Cuba had nukes, the US might be less likely to...

That didn't exactly go well...