The Election That Could Break America
From The Atlantic, here's an outline of it:
https://outline.com/mSk9jD
This could turn into an utter crudshow. This scenario below would cause a complete failure of the law and constitution:
Suppose Pennsylvania alone sends rival slates of electors, and their 20 votes will decide the presidency.
One reading of the Electoral Count Act says that Congress must recognize the electors certified by the governor, who is a Democrat, unless the House and Senate agree otherwise. The House will not agree otherwise, and so Biden wins Pennsylvania and the White House. But Pence pounds his gavel and rules against this reading of the law, instead favoring another, which holds that Congress must discard both contested slates of electors. The garbled statute can plausibly be read either way.
With Pennsylvania’s electors disqualified, 518 electoral votes remain. If Biden holds a narrow lead among them, he again claims the presidency, because he has “the greatest number of votes,” as the Twelfth Amendment prescribes. But Republicans point out that the same amendment requires “a majority of the whole number of electors.” The whole number of electors, Pence rules, is 538, and Biden is short of the required 270.
On this argument, no one has attained the presidency, and the decision is thrown to the House, with one vote per state. If the current partisan balance holds, 26 out of 50 votes will be for Trump.
Before Pence can move on from Pennsylvania to Rhode Island, which is next on the alphabetical list as Congress counts the vote, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expels all senators from the floor of her chamber. Now Pence is prevented from completing the count “in the presence of” the House, as the Constitution requires. Pelosi announces plans to stall indefinitely. If the count is still incomplete on Inauguration Day, the speaker herself will become acting president.
Pelosi prepares to be sworn in on January 20 unless Pence reverses his ruling and accepts that Biden won. Pence does not budge. He reconvenes the Senate in another venue, with House Republicans squeezing in, and purports to complete the count, making Trump the president-elect. Three people now have supportable claims to the Oval Office.
There are other paths in the labyrinth. Many lead to dead ends.
This is the next constitutional crisis, graver than the one three weeks before, because the law and the Constitution provide for no other authority to consult. The Supreme Court may yet intervene, but it may also shy away from another traumatizing encounter with a fundamentally political question.
Sixty-four days have passed since the election. Stalemate reigns. Two weeks remain until Inauguration Day.
Foley, who foresaw this impasse, knows of no solution. He cannot tell you how we avoid it under current law, or how it ends. It is not so much, at this point, a question of law. It is a question of power. Trump has possession of the White House. How far will he push boundaries to keep it, and who will push back? It is the same question the president has posed since the day he took office.
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"You have a responsibility to consider all sides of a problem and a responsibility to make a judgment and a responsibility to care for all involved." --Ian Danskin
It’s worrying stuff. Let’s all hope there is a decisive victory.
Although a constitutional crisis would be a bad thing in itself, if you’re a Biden supporter, then you should be more worried about a Trump victory, which is more likely. Remember, he booked a small hall on Election Day 2016 because he expected he’d have to concede and didn’t want a big crowd there.
If you’re worried the other side will suppress the vote or won’t concede and will resort to trickery, then stop worrying and start campaigning.
It is not inconceivable that a constitutional crisis about the outcome of the election could destabilize the US to an even greater extent than the current situation.
A possible scenario would be a situation where Trump attempts to declare himself winner early and it turns out Biden actually wins.
It is thus likely that early exit-polls on election day would demonstrate an advantage to Trump as significantly more Democrat voters are likely to vote (or have already voted) by mail.
Standard exit polls usually ask in-person voters only, but perhaps pollsters have taken into this account already.
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Trump won’t commit to peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election
“Well, we’ll have to see what happens. You know that. I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots. And the ballots are a disaster,” Trump said at a news conference at the White House.
Minutes later, the president abruptly left the briefing room, telling the press, “I have to leave to take an emergency phone call.”
I do not know how this could be any clearer, how people can still be in denial. I have been saying he won’t leave for four years now, and most have just not believed me. As they say just because you are paranoid does not mean somebody is not out to get you. It is going to come down to is the military rank and file going to back the constitution? I have no idea.
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Well, vote margins have generally narrowed over time (and it was -2.09 percent in 2016, as Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote).
But in the 20th century presidents like FDR (1936) Lyndon B. Johnson (1964) and Nixon (1972) actually got more than 60 pct. of the vote, making these elections much more decisive (and, I assume, more casual).
On the other hand, the 1964 election *did* perhaps break America, as it launched the Southern Strategy within the Republican Party...
Well, vote margins have generally narrowed over time (and it was -2.09 percent in 2016, as Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote).
But in the 20th century presidents like FDR (1936) Lyndon B. Johnson (1964) and Nixon (1972) actually got more than 60 pct. of the vote, making these elections much more decisive (and, I assume, more casual).
On the other hand, the 1964 election *did* perhaps break America, as it launched the Southern Strategy within the Republican Party...
The Reagan landslides in the 80's too,I don't know what the pop vote was but Mondale and Carter only got one state.
Mondale got his home Minnesota but Carter couldn't even get Georgia, I think Carter MA.
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Republicans break with Trump over peaceful transition of power
While Republicans gently pushed back Thursday against Trump’s refusal this week to commit to a peaceful transition of power, most declined to say what they would do if the president refuses to leave office, dismissing it as a hypothetical
situation.
Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) added that his party would not stand idly by if Trump tried to stay in office after losing: "Republicans believe in the rule of law and we believe in the Constitution. And that's what dictates our election process."
Hill Republicans argued Thursday morning that this year’s election would be no different than previous ones and reiterated that the Constitution guarantees that whoever loses must cede the presidency. But no one condemned Trump directly by name, and they declined to weigh in on whether it was appropriate for the president to suggest he won’t leave office.
"The winner of the November 3rd election will be inaugurated on January 20th," said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. "There will be an orderly transition just as there has been every four years since 1792."
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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
Opposite of the truth. Ive been voting since 1972, and was aware of news coverage of elections before that, and I have never heard that turn of phrase EVER used to describe any election before.
Well, vote margins have generally narrowed over time (and it was -2.09 percent in 2016, as Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote).
But in the 20th century presidents like FDR (1936) Lyndon B. Johnson (1964) and Nixon (1972) actually got more than 60 pct. of the vote, making these elections much more decisive (and, I assume, more casual).
On the other hand, the 1964 election *did* perhaps break America, as it launched the Southern Strategy within the Republican Party...
The Reagan landslides in the 80's too,I don't know what the pop vote was but Mondale and Carter only got one state.
Mondale got his home Minnesota but Carter couldn't even get Georgia, I think Carter MA.
If you're talking about the popular vote Reagan won, but not by landslides. There were only two landslides in my lifetime: LBJ against Goldwater 64, and Nixon against McGovern 72(in both the winner won twice as many votes as the loser- Goldwater losing slightly worse).
The opposite has also happened in my lifetime as a voter: Nixon vs Humphrey 68 was razor thin in closeness, and Bush/Gore 2000 was razor thin. The later was taken to the supreme court because of the Florida dangling chads etc. But neither guy acted like Trump. Gore (being semi incumbent because he was the previous POTUS's VEEP) didnt threaten to stay in office by force, and W. didnt threaten to launch a military junta to take over. But Trump is hinting that he wont leave the Oval Office regardless of the election outcome.
Well, vote margins have generally narrowed over time (and it was -2.09 percent in 2016, as Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote).
But in the 20th century presidents like FDR (1936) Lyndon B. Johnson (1964) and Nixon (1972) actually got more than 60 pct. of the vote, making these elections much more decisive (and, I assume, more casual).
On the other hand, the 1964 election *did* perhaps break America, as it launched the Southern Strategy within the Republican Party...
The Reagan landslides in the 80's too,I don't know what the pop vote was but Mondale and Carter only got one state.
Mondale got his home Minnesota but Carter couldn't even get Georgia, I think Carter MA.
If you're talking about the popular vote Reagan won, but not by landslides. There were only two landslides in my lifetime: LBJ against Goldwater 64, and Nixon against McGovern 72(in both the winner won twice as many votes as the loser- Goldwater losing slightly worse).
The opposite has also happened in my lifetime as a voter: Nixon vs Humphrey 68 was razor thin in closeness, and Bush/Gore 2000 was razor thin. The later was taken to the supreme court because of the Florida dangling chads etc. But neither guy acted like Trump. Gore (being semi incumbent because he was the previous POTUS's VEEP) didnt threaten to stay in office by force, and W. didnt threaten to launch a military junta to take over. But Trump is hinting that he wont leave the Oval Office regardless of the election outcome.
Clinton in the 90's had in the middle wins,I don't recall a landslide or anything razor thin.As far the 70's I was young,I remember Jimmy Carter but not Nixon or Ford.
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I'm guessing most American voters are going to be like this when they vote, minus, going to booths:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAKrX00 ... e=youtu.be
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