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Tempus Fugit
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09 Nov 2020, 5:41 am

roronoa79 wrote:
Tempus Fugit wrote:
Particulars aside, in 2016 the electorial college was declaired a flawed system that needed to be abolished and attempts were made to change its outcome. But when the system is challenged in 2020 that suddenly becomes an attack on democracy. Despite a bunch of "this is why it's not the same thing" examples, in my opinion that's still what it boils down to.

Challenging the electoral college is not an attack on democracy because the electoral college is an anti-democratic system. It was put in place by the founders so electors could vote however they wanted when they thought the voters were being stupid. It was put in place with the belief that the political class knows what is best for the rest of us. It is an obstacle to democracy.

The GOP and Trump are not challenging the system on some ideological or moral basis. They're suggesting that the vote was flawed or fraudulent without concrete evidence of fraud only because they lost. Impartial election observers have found no evidence of the kind of mass fraud that would be necessary for Trump to win. This is all part of Trump's emotional inability to admit defeat and the ongoing GOP strategy of undermining public confidence in the legitimacy of elections in general for political gain. They've been making vague insinuations for years about widespread voter fraud despite the evidence showing that is is negligible at worst. It's how they've been justifying voter ID laws. It's another part of Republican efforts at voter suppression. It's politicians using the mechanisms of government to deny the will of the people.


The Democrats threw a tantrum because they lost and tried to change the outcome because they didn't like it. And now the Republicans are throwing their tantrum because they lost. Since I'm not particularly partial to either side, it appears to me to be a what's good for the goose is good for the gander, turnabout is fair play situation.


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Tempus Fugit
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09 Nov 2020, 6:12 am

magz wrote:
The point of existence of the Electoral College has been contested long before 2016, e.g. in 1977.
It's a relict form the Founders' time, absent in almost all modern democracies.


For the most part I agree with what is said against it. But at the same time, if it was up to popular vote only, there wouldn't be an equal say among the states based on individual population. They say it would pretty much ens up becomeing California deciding the outcome. Which I imagine is what makes it diffent in the 50 United States compaired to other modern democracies which aren't that compartmentalized.


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Last edited by Tempus Fugit on 09 Nov 2020, 6:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

Brictoria
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09 Nov 2020, 6:13 am

magz wrote:
The point of existence of the Electoral College has been contested long before 2016, e.g. in 1977.
It's a relict form the Founders' time, absent in almost all modern democracies.


Given most modern democracies started as individual "nations" rather than seperate "nations" (the states) combining to form a single nation, it isn't surprising that most "modern democracies" do not have anything similar.

Additionally, the U.S.A. is a "Democratic Republic", rather than a pure "Democracy", which also contributes towards its uniqueness.


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09 Nov 2020, 9:21 am

Image

So nothing to do with it being Guy Fawkes Night then..... :lol:



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09 Nov 2020, 9:24 am

I would not doubt that somewhere in the Multiverse, The Guy is laughing his mask off.


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09 Nov 2020, 9:38 am

Brictoria wrote:
magz wrote:
The point of existence of the Electoral College has been contested long before 2016, e.g. in 1977.
It's a relict form the Founders' time, absent in almost all modern democracies.


Given most modern democracies started as individual "nations" rather than seperate "nations" (the states) combining to form a single nation, it isn't surprising that most "modern democracies" do not have anything similar.

Additionally, the U.S.A. is a "Democratic Republic", rather than a pure "Democracy", which also contributes towards its uniqueness.
My point: it is disputable weather it would be a right move or not but proposals of getting rid of the Electoral College are neither new, nor anti-democratic.


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09 Nov 2020, 9:41 am

uncommondenominator wrote:
@Mikah - Do you know for certain the info is being downloaded from NYT, or is it being downloaded from a link that has NYT as part of the address. Can you provide actual links instead of screen captures?


Brictoria beat me to it. For good measure I'm trying to replicate the graphs from slightly different (newer) data that I downloaded using the script last night. Apologies for the amateurish graphing. This is Wisconsin:

Image

You can just about see the effects of the so-called "4AM Miracle"

But play with the axis to "zoom in" and it's even clearer, looking similar to the original graphs:
Image

It doesn't look identical to me, the data is newer and who knows what settings Mr Data Scientist was using for his graphs but the important bit, the same strange jump in the reporting ratio of what must be mail-in ballots is there. I think the data and the analysis is genuine.


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09 Nov 2020, 9:47 am

Mikah wrote:
uncommondenominator wrote:
@Mikah - Do you know for certain the info is being downloaded from NYT, or is it being downloaded from a link that has NYT as part of the address. Can you provide actual links instead of screen captures?


Brictoria beat me to it. For good measure I'm trying to replicate the graphs from slightly different (newer) data that I downloaded using the script last night. Apologies for the amateurish graphing. This is Wisconsin:

Image

You can just about see the effects of the so-called "4AM Miracle"

But play with the axis to "zoom in" and it's even clearer, looking similar to the original graphs:
Image

It doesn't look identical to me, the data is newer and who knows what settings Mr Data Scientist was using for his graphs but the important bit, the same strange jump in the reporting ratio of what must be mail-in ballots is there. I think the data and the analysis is genuine.


The newer data will be affacting the horizontal axis, compressing the older data into more of a "blob" to allow the newer data within that axis.

If you can set the time\date range for a similar one to the original analysis, it will likely come out close, if not the same, as the original (or alternatively, extend the graph horizontally to allow the bulk area of data to spread out more).


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09 Nov 2020, 9:51 am

magz wrote:
Brictoria wrote:
magz wrote:
The point of existence of the Electoral College has been contested long before 2016, e.g. in 1977.  It's a relict form the Founders' time, absent in almost all modern democracies.
Given most modern democracies started as individual "nations" rather than seperate "nations" (the states) combining to form a single nation, it isn't surprising that most "modern democracies" do not have anything similar.  Additionally, the U.S.A. is a "Democratic Republic", rather than a pure "Democracy", which also contributes towards its uniqueness.
My point: it is disputable weather it would be a right move or not but proposals of getting rid of the Electoral College are neither new, nor anti-democratic.
I think it is funny that two (or more) people who are NOT American citizens (or even residents of the U.S.A.) are arguing over the utility of the Electoral College, and that they are doing so as if they were experts on the subject.

:lol: :lol:


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09 Nov 2020, 10:00 am

Fnord wrote:
I think it is funny that two (or more) people who are NOT American citizens (or even residents of the U.S.A.) are arguing over the utility of the Electoral College, and that they are doing so as if they were experts on the subject.

:lol: :lol:
Can't you, being American, have an opinion on e.g. abortion law in Poland? We all have opinions.
So, what is your opinion on the Electoral College?


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09 Nov 2020, 10:53 am

I am a sociologist. This Benton’s Law thing is what we called a Normal Distribution.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution#/media/File%3AStandard_deviation_diagram.svg

We use it to measure standard deviations, which then tells us if something is statistically significant. We can also see if something is natural or a mistake.

I did some quick census references on election night for population of a few states minus children and incarcerated persons. I didn’t even bother with registered voters. For the sake of argument let’s pretend that all non-incarcerated people over 18 are registered to vote. I also ignored third party votes.

Adjusted population of state / votes for democrat + votes for republican = % of people voting

Swing states had around 60% voter turnout using this generous formula for election years 1984, 2008, 2016.

2020 had voter turnout of 90%. Which means that if you cleaned up my formula to include those variables I ignored, we are closer to 100% turnout.

That is not natural and it has to be re-examined.



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09 Nov 2020, 11:01 am

Fnord wrote:
magz wrote:
Brictoria wrote:
magz wrote:
The point of existence of the Electoral College has been contested long before 2016, e.g. in 1977.  It's a relict form the Founders' time, absent in almost all modern democracies.
Given most modern democracies started as individual "nations" rather than seperate "nations" (the states) combining to form a single nation, it isn't surprising that most "modern democracies" do not have anything similar.  Additionally, the U.S.A. is a "Democratic Republic", rather than a pure "Democracy", which also contributes towards its uniqueness.
My point: it is disputable weather it would be a right move or not but proposals of getting rid of the Electoral College are neither new, nor anti-democratic.
I think it is funny that two (or more) people who are NOT American citizens (or even residents of the U.S.A.) are arguing over the utility of the Electoral College, and that they are doing so as if they were experts on the subject.

:lol: :lol:


Compared to most Americans they are.

:lol: :lol: :lol:


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Last edited by Tempus Fugit on 09 Nov 2020, 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

Mona Pereth
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09 Nov 2020, 11:04 am

SocOfAutism wrote:
2020 had voter turnout of 90%. Which means that if you cleaned up my formula to include those variables I ignored, we are closer to 100% turnout.

That is not natural and it has to be re-examined.

Yes we had unusually high voter turnout. But this was not unexpected. There were lots of news stories about the long lines for early voting in some places, especially in cities and especially in predominantly black areas.

There is nothing intrinsically suspicious about the high turnout. All it means is that Trump inspired unusually strong emotion, both for and against -- especially against -- on the part of people who don't normally bother to vote.


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09 Nov 2020, 11:06 am

It should still be examined.


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09 Nov 2020, 12:00 pm

Fnord wrote:
magz wrote:
Brictoria wrote:
magz wrote:
The point of existence of the Electoral College has been contested long before 2016, e.g. in 1977.  It's a relict form the Founders' time, absent in almost all modern democracies.
Given most modern democracies started as individual "nations" rather than seperate "nations" (the states) combining to form a single nation, it isn't surprising that most "modern democracies" do not have anything similar.  Additionally, the U.S.A. is a "Democratic Republic", rather than a pure "Democracy", which also contributes towards its uniqueness.
My point: it is disputable weather it would be a right move or not but proposals of getting rid of the Electoral College are neither new, nor anti-democratic.
I think it is funny that two (or more) people who are NOT American citizens (or even residents of the U.S.A.) are arguing over the utility of the Electoral College, and that they are doing so as if they were experts on the subject.

:lol: :lol:



Personally, all I care about is US foreign policy and science/climate policy; so I was torn over these two points. lol

I prefer Rep foreign policy over Dem because.... historically Rep administrations were always more friendly with Arab countries; and more hostile toward Iran and Turkey (naturalplastic mentioned in other thread that all US presidents are pro Zionism, that’s true... but Rep were always more friends with Arab countries too; Dems not at all ).

There’s also the big concern over Dem’s previous support to Islamist radical organizations such as Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt - which became very weak during Trump admin - this alone is a big black point for Dem party in my book. And any policy empowering Iran and Turkey is also bad in my book; those are two imperialist expansionist nations that should be refrained, not given the freedom to do what they like, “nuclear deal” my ass, an insane regime like Iran should not have room to develop any nuclear capability no matter how peaceful will vouch. One of Trump foreign achievements was eradicating the Iranian domination over Iraq for good but failed to do the same in Lebanon. I am afraid all the above will be reversed with Biden tho.

On the other hand Rep’s climate/science policy were always disastrous; I recall Bush banned cloning studies for instance, not just human cloning but organs/stem-cell cloning too (obviously for religious reasons) but Obama reversed some of the restrictions; right? Imagine how much could be done ever since if it wasn’t banned; scientists could save millions of lives or even cured diseases such as diabetes, a lot got delayed in this department.


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09 Nov 2020, 12:10 pm

SocOfAutism wrote:
2020 had voter turnout of 90%. Which means that if you cleaned up my formula to include those variables I ignored, we are closer to 100% turnout.

That is not natural and it has to be re-examined.

Where are you getting that from? All the turnout figures I'm seeing are around the 70% mark, which is a higher turnout than last time, but not suspiciously so. Trump polarized opinion, it was expected that turnout for this election would be higher than normal.