Nobody interested in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

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Jakki
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13 May 2022, 9:01 am

Interesting analogy about chess …. Used to play , but if my opening moves were countered , the rest of the game was pretty much over for me. The Putin forces seems to have used a similiar tactic , and their opening moves were countered . So hope this entire Ukraine thing , does not just become a game of attrition.

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carlos55
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13 May 2022, 9:26 am

magz wrote:

carlos55 wrote:

Things just keep on escalating. Surrender for each is not an option if Ukraine attacks deep into Russia itself with western weapons they’ll be forced to respond.

"If".

So far, it's Russia attacking deep into territory of another country while absurdly claiming to be "only protecting their borders" and that they've been "forced to respond".

None of that sadly takes away the fact that this has become a NATO Russia conflict with no way out.

The majority of Crimea people irrespective of who’s land it is/was are ethnic Russians so it’s extremely unlikely Russia can or would let them go.

Logically the 2 million ethnic Russians people living there feel they are unlikely to be expected to be treated well either if they go back to Ukraine. The same is true in the extreme east of Donbas.

So it’s do or die mentality at play with extra weapons Russia will have to escalate itself to fight back.

Ukraine will soon have weapons by west to attack Russian cities itself (already attacking border areas) which will stir up vengeance in Russia for escalation further.

If Ukraine forces enter Russian territory while help from the west then the lines will be blurred and I think then the odds of nuclear war will be very high

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magz
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13 May 2022, 9:54 am

But Ukraine has no strategic interest in going deep into Russian territory, so this scenario is very unlikely.
They have their own territories to regain, with supportive population. That's much easier than hostile occupation, way more understood, accepted and generally rational.
After regaining pre-Feb24 territories, Western support is very likely to switch from heavy weapons (to advance on terrain) to anti-missile (protection from shelling).

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carlos55
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13 May 2022, 10:12 am

magz wrote:

Depends if Ukraine attack Crimea with 2 million ethnic Russians living there. Also pre feb 24 territory still leaves many of the Donbas that were not Ukrainian since 2014. The millions of ethnic Russians living there are unlikely to expect to be treated well either.

Also offensive weapons don’t disappear as soon as feb 23 territory is regained Ukraine will be compelled to take all territory leading to Russian escalation.

Russia has 1.2 million army but only 190,000 being used at moment.

They are reportedly holding back incase NATO attacks. Crimea is actually now part of Russia too unlike the Donbas so russia will almost certainly use nukes to protect the 2 million Russians living there.

It’s do or die for both sides I don’t think this will have a good outcome for anyone.

War is hell certainly

kraftiekortie
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13 May 2022, 10:18 am

Don't forget: according to Russia, all Ukrainians are "ethnic Russians."

It does seem like many of the "ethnic Russians" in the east of Ukraine don't really want to go back to the hegemony of Moscow.

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13 May 2022, 10:44 am

Finally a good use for electric motorcycles:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/c ... iper-teams

Sneaky like a ninja.

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magz
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13 May 2022, 10:46 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

Don't forget: according to Russia, all Ukrainians are "ethnic Russians."

And they don't treat themselves well? :scratch:

Half of Ukrainians speak Russian as their native language, including Zelensky himself. In Slavic world, language is the most commonly used determinant of ethnicity. But Ukrainians don't want to be ruled from Kremlin, with Kremlin methods. So the traditional determinant fails in their case.

It's not ethnic, it's civilizational.

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SkinnedWolf
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13 May 2022, 11:03 am

Quote:

Xinhua News Agency reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Scholz discussed the situation in Ukraine by telephone on the 13th. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the media on the 13th that he is ready to hold direct talks with Putin without any intermediaries, but Ukraine is not ready to make concessions on sovereignty issues to end the war.

Quote:

According to the Kremlin website, Putin had a phone call with Scholz on the 13th, and the two sides continued to discuss the situation in Ukraine. Putin explained the main tasks of Russia's special military operations and the measures taken to ensure the safety of civilians. According to the announcement issued by the German government, the call lasted about 75 minutes, and Scholz urged Putin to achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible, improve the humanitarian situation and promote a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

Quote:

According to the Ukrainian state news agency on the 13th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the media that he was ready to hold direct talks with Putin without any intermediaries. He also said Ukraine was not prepared to make any concessions on sovereignty issues to end the war.

Quote:

Andryushchenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, Ukraine, said on social media on the 13th that the Russian army was trying to break into the Azov steel plant under the cover of artillery fire, and the Ukrainian defenders were stubbornly resisting and the situation was getting worse.

Quote:

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov said on the 13th that the Russian army used long-range high-precision weapons to destroy an oil refinery in the northern suburb of Kremenchug, Poltava, Ukraine. According to Ukraine's Interfax news agency, Lunin, the military and political chief of the Poltava region, posted on social media on the 12th: The Russian army fired 12 missiles at the city of Kremenchug, most of which were fired at Ukraine's largest oil refinery, the Kremenchug refinery, causing a fire. The fire has been extinguished and no casualties have been reported.

Quote:

The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 13th, declaring one staff member of the Bulgarian embassy in Russia and 10 staff members of the Romanian embassy in Russia "persona non grata". The statement said the measure was in response to the two countries' declaration in April of this year that 11 Russian diplomats were "persona non grata".

Quote:

The European Commission issued a statement on the 12th saying that it will cooperate with the governments of EU member states to establish a "solidarity channel" to help Ukraine export grains stranded in ports due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This channel will not only help Ukraine to export food, but also be used to import humanitarian aid, feed and fertilizers and other supplies Ukraine needs.

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Jakki
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13 May 2022, 11:11 am

If the Ukrainians do not attack Russian cities then the Russian population will have no cause to wish the War ended.
The Russians escalated the War. By virtue of their invasion of Ukraine in the first place . IMHO

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Fnord
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13 May 2022, 11:21 am

Jakki wrote:

If the Ukrainians do not attack Russian cities then the Russian population will have no cause to wish the War ended. The Russians escalated the War. By virtue of their invasion of Ukraine in the first place.

One thing my dad taught me that I believe (because I have seen it proven) is that to stop an attacker, one must knock them to the ground, and then keep hitting them to make them both unable AND unwilling to ever attack anyone again.

I believe this should be done with Russia.

magz
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13 May 2022, 12:30 pm

Quote:

Ukraine's head of military intelligence says the war with Russia is going so well, that it will reach a turning point by mid-August and be over by the end of the year.

It is the most precise and optimistic prediction by a senior Ukrainian official so far.

In an exclusive interview with Sky News, Major General Kyrylo Budanov also said a coup to remove Vladimir Putin is already under way in Russia and the Russian leader is seriously ill with cancer.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... r-12612320

We'll be watching closely.

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Pepe
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13 May 2022, 10:43 pm

Quote:

Azovstal Bombed, Ukraine Hits Russian Troops 100 Times | Putin to Cut Finland Power Supply over NATO

May 14, 2022

Ukraine reported that the besieged soldiers at the Azovstal steel plant have again come under Russian bombardment. Officials say Russian aircraft dropped heavy bombs on the plant leading to “powerful explosions”. Ukrainian forces claim to have struck Russian military positions in the south over 100 times on May 12, killing 57 Russian soldiers. EU announced $521 million in military aid to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Putin discussed the situation in Ukraine and the evacuation of civilians from the Azovstal plant with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. According to Russian state energy company Inter RAO, Moscow will suspend electricity supplies to Finland from May 14.

Pepe
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13 May 2022, 10:46 pm

magz wrote:

Pepe wrote:

It wasn't Soviet superior communication, planning or tactics that won.
It was the over-extended supply chains of the Germans, the Soviet winter, the moving of Soviet industry to the east, the massive amount of manpower, and the resolve of the Soviet people as a result of *their* country being invaded.
Sound familiar?

Yep. It wasn't superior planning and tactics by Soviets, it was inferior planning and tactics by Germans

If it hadn't been for Amuurian supplies/lend-lease, the Germans would have conquered The U.S.S.R.
Sound familiar? :wink:

Pepe
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13 May 2022, 10:48 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:

Yes....this is a support site.

And, yes, people do play "Devil's Advocate" here. There's nothing wrong, per se, with playing "Devil's Advocate"---but, sometimes, people take it too seriously.

I can't comment other than to say...

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Pepe
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13 May 2022, 10:50 pm

carlos55 wrote:

Not sure how nuclear war can be avoided now.

Things just keep on escalating. Surrender for each is not an option if Ukraine attacks deep into Russia itself with western weapons they’ll be forced to respond.

Escalation is easy while de-escalation is very difficult.

We could be looking at the last days or weeks before world war 3 involving US, Russia and China all at once.

"I don't think so, Tim."
But if you are right, congratulations...erm, I think. :scratch:

Pepe
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13 May 2022, 10:56 pm

magz wrote:

carlos55 wrote:

Things just keep on escalating. Surrender for each is not an option if Ukraine attacks deep into Russia itself with western weapons they’ll be forced to respond.

"If".

So far, it's Russia attacking deep into territory of another country while absurdly claiming to be "only protecting their borders" and that they've been "forced to respond".

Recent reports suggest Russia itself will be attacked.
This will make things "interesting".

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