Nobody interested in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

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Worthless
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25 Sep 2022, 12:12 am

Everyone's talking about putin's nuclear threats, but no one is mentioning or seems to realize that he also threatened to use chemical and biological weapons (which they have enormous quantities of).



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25 Sep 2022, 3:02 am

Cornflake wrote:
KitLily wrote:
I didn't want Britain to leave the EU because their laws are like safeguards, restraining the British government from going too far with, for example, making people work very long hours, stopping paid maternity and sick leave, allowing harmful additives in our food etc.


There were no EU laws the UK had to follow - only mutual agreements to implement common standards, many of which were championed by the UK.
This was the great lie of Brexit - the UK's sovereignty and independence was never at risk from the EU.


You put it better than I could: common standards agreed by a lot of countries which keep everyone safe from dictatorships making unilateral laws to benefit themselves. Now we aren't in the EU, we don't have those safeguards, the British government can do exactly as they want...


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25 Sep 2022, 3:08 am

naturalplastic wrote:
I heard that there already were lots of controls on the king prior to the English civil war. And that that was one of the reasons Oliver Cromwell refused to be crowned king, and opted to become...England's only dictator...because if he had been crowned king he wouldve LOST power.


I think you're correct. I looked it up, and noblemen started trying to control the king in 1100 with Henry I with the Charter of Liberties, followed by the Magna Carta in 1215. I think the noblemen got fed up with the king being a law unto himself so they made him obey the law.

I'm really going way off topic :lol:


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25 Sep 2022, 7:07 am

KitLily wrote:
Now we aren't in the EU, we don't have those safeguards, the British government can do exactly as they want...
(sorry, final off-topic response :oops: )
Curbed to an extent by the House of Lords, which holds the government of the day to account.
I tend to think of HoL as "the adults in the room". :lol:


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25 Sep 2022, 7:48 am

KitLily wrote:

You put it better than I could: common standards agreed by a lot of countries which keep everyone safe from dictatorships making unilateral laws to benefit themselves. Now we aren't in the EU, we don't have those safeguards, the British government can do exactly as they want...


The UK government still have to obey international law. Extremely long hours and sick pay are boundaries that no developed nation would dare to cross. If the government went too far judges and juries can veto any laws they feel overstep the line.



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25 Sep 2022, 11:54 am

funeralxempire wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
Could it really be much worse than the current version?


Ab-so-fucking-lutely. You could always (and most likely will) get an even more concentrated nationalist, 'Third Rome' informed Russian state that's less stable, even more ideologically extreme and now dedicated to avenging the slight it feels the west inflicted upon it (regardless of the fact that it was self-inflicted).

This regime would feel further even incentive to behave in the same paranoid manner the Russian state has traditionally behaved in. This regime would likely lean further into the idea that they're a Christian state under persecution by the godless liberal west (as the wackos to the right of Putin already claim, like the father of the lady who was carbombed). This regime would almost certainly behave with a heavier hand towards any regions that might seek to separate.

Think of the difference between the current Iranian or Saudi regime, and ISIS, only with an arsenal of ICBMs.
Think of the difference between the most conservative and pragmatic members of the NSDAP vs. the ones who were obsessed with mysticism, UFOs and pseudo-pagan rituals, only with an arsenal of ICBMs.

There's a good chance that whatever replaces Putin's regime will be a less rational actor.
They're all s**t sandwiches until you realize some of the s**t sandwiches also carry rabies.

Evil and stable is less dangerous than evil and batshit insane.

goldfish21 wrote:
I mean, maybe, but then they can just revolution again and again until they figure something better out.


It's not that easy, there's enormous human and other costs associated with that, if that's seriously something you view as a solution. Maybe from where your sitting those costs won't be felt, but that doesn't mean those costs won't be felt by a lot of innocent people, many of them outside of Russia.

The collapse of the Russian state, along with the disruptions to food, fertilizer and energy exports it would cause would be catastrophic to the world's economy. It would likely trigger a refugee crisis in Europe (from Russians fleeing) and it would likely trigger ethnic conflicts in Siberia and other regions that Russia stole and filled with colonists.

It might not be your problem, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be a massive problem.

In a lot of ways Russia as a society behaves like a person who's experienced repeated overwhelming trauma (given that they have). If that analogy also works literally, it's understandable why certain coping mechanisms (both on an individual and on a collective level) end up so deformed. It doesn't mean the rest of the world has to tolerate antisocial actions their state undertakes, but it does mean it's likely that curbstomping Russia and repeatedly causing them to feel humiliated is unlikely to benefit anyone, not us, not Russia, not Russians and not ethnic minorities within Russia.

If that's the case we shouldn't do it, at least if we have any moral authority.

Putin's problem is still a problem of Russian modernization to some extent. CPC's problem is still a problem of China's modernization to some extent. The strong path dependence will make this region frozen in amber in the regime changes that have not produced any substantial impact.

Modernization is a road with unknown entrance and unknown result. If we want to arouse more people to explore it, a modern entity must prove its superiority before a sufficient proportion of the population - and modernity is not performing well at present.


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25 Sep 2022, 12:17 pm

SkinnedWolf wrote:
Putin's problem is still a problem of Russian modernization to some extent. CPC's problem is still a problem of China's modernization to some extent. The strong path dependence will make this region frozen in amber in the regime changes that have not produced any substantial impact.

Modernization is a road with unknown entrance and unknown result. If we want to arouse more people to explore it, a modern entity must prove its superiority before a sufficient proportion of the population - and modernity is not performing well at present.


Wut?

The entire world is in the current year 2022 (or whatever calendar you use, we're in the present moment) so how can it be that russia or china aren't in modern times or are somehow working towards the present moment as if their calendars haven't caught up to the rest of the world ? We're all in present times, not the distant past.. soooo ??


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25 Sep 2022, 12:31 pm

Cornflake wrote:
KitLily wrote:
Now we aren't in the EU, we don't have those safeguards, the British government can do exactly as they want...
(sorry, final off-topic response :oops: )
Curbed to an extent by the House of Lords, which holds the government of the day to account.
I tend to think of HoL as "the adults in the room". :lol:


It's nice to think of the HoL as the adults in the room but for how long will that last? It's almost full of Boris's mates and Russians. 8O


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25 Sep 2022, 12:33 pm

Cornflake wrote:
Curbed to an extent by the House of Lords, which holds the government of the day to account.
I tend to think of HoL as "the adults in the room". :lol:


Indeed... which is why...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rt-reveals


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25 Sep 2022, 12:39 pm

Nades wrote:
The UK government still have to obey international law. Extremely long hours and sick pay are boundaries that no developed nation would dare to cross. If the government went too far judges and juries can veto any laws they feel overstep the line.


Except that the government is planning/has already started controlling which judges are put in place and what their powers are. Give them some time and they'll find ways around international laws...

As Donald Trump did in the USA, which is why the Supreme Court was able to dismantle Roe v Wade. The judges he put in place have extreme views so that decision was the result.

Boris Johnson ‘planning reforms which would let ministers overrule judicial decisions’ https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... ml?r=19741


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25 Sep 2022, 12:41 pm

Mikah wrote:
Cornflake wrote:
Curbed to an extent by the House of Lords, which holds the government of the day to account.
I tend to think of HoL as "the adults in the room". :lol:


Indeed... which is why...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rt-reveals


Wow that sounds fantastic! A modernised upper chamber which can't be filled with Tory donors and/or Russians!


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26 Sep 2022, 5:18 am

goldfish21 wrote:
SkinnedWolf wrote:
Putin's problem is still a problem of Russian modernization to some extent. CPC's problem is still a problem of China's modernization to some extent. The strong path dependence will make this region frozen in amber in the regime changes that have not produced any substantial impact.

Modernization is a road with unknown entrance and unknown result. If we want to arouse more people to explore it, a modern entity must prove its superiority before a sufficient proportion of the population - and modernity is not performing well at present.


Wut?

The entire world is in the current year 2022 (or whatever calendar you use, we're in the present moment) so how can it be that russia or china aren't in modern times or are somehow working towards the present moment as if their calendars haven't caught up to the rest of the world ? We're all in present times, not the distant past.. soooo ??

Many Chinese involved in political discussions believe that we are still trapped in the System of Qin Dynasty(from 221 to 206 BC). It never left, but became stronger and stronger.

Requiring to wear burka made of polyester fiber will not make the Sharia more advanced.


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26 Sep 2022, 6:40 am

US will take ‘catastrophic’ action if Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons

Quote:
Russia will face “catastrophic consequences” if it deploys nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the US has warned Kremlin officials.

Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, said on Sunday night that the US had “communicated directly, privately to the Russians at very high levels” how it would respond if Vladimir Putin carried out the nuclear strike threat he made during an address last week.

“If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia. The United States will respond decisively,” Mr Sullivan told NBC’s Meet the Press programme.

Mr Sullivan did not describe the nature of the planned response but said the US had privately “spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean” to Moscow.

It came as Putin’s foreign minister said on Sunday that annexed areas of Ukraine would be protected like Russian territory. Referendums in those areas are continuing, with Ukrainians under pressure from armed Moscow forces to cast their ballots.

Some of Putin’s allies, including the speaker of the State Duma, publicly broke ranks on Sunday to criticise the way in which conscripts are being recruited, amid reports of elderly and ill men being drafted after the Russian president announced a partial mobilisation order.

While the threat is seen by some as an attempt to assert control after a series of embarrassing defeats in Ukraine, Nato’s nuclear powers have started ramping up vigilance and deterrence.

In a separate interview on Sunday, Mr Sullivan said Putin’s nuclear threats were a “matter that we have to take deadly seriously”.

Military analysts believe Putin could use Russia’s military doctrine, which allows it to use nuclear weapons to defend its territory, to reframe the conflict in Ukraine as defensive.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran foreign minister, said on Sunday that the Kremlin could use nuclear weapons to defend occupied Ukrainian territories, if annexed following referendums.

Russian forces have only been able to coerce one in five residents of occupied Melitopol to vote in a sham annexation referendum despite the threat of violence, its exiled mayor has said.

Since voting began on Friday, Russian officials have been going door-to-door in occupied regions flanked by gunmen to give out ballot papers and identify voters.

Ukrainians living under occupation have been warned their families would be massacred if they refuse to take part.

Despite the threats, Ivan Fedorov, Ukraine’s elected mayor of Melitopol, said: “Our citizens haven’t taken part in this fake referendum … after three days Russia has only been able to find just 20 per cent of people to vote. Nobody wants to vote, nobody wants to say yes to the Russian referendum.”

Of those forced to cast a vote, he said “90 per cent” had voted against Russia’s occupation becoming permanent

In the build-up to the vote, pro-Moscow officials blocked evacuation routes to Ukrainian-held territory, only allowing women and children to flee to occupied Crimea, Mr Fedorov said.

Mr Fedorov said men of fighting age had been blocked from leaving altogether, raising the prospect of them being forcibly drafted into Russian-backed armed forces.

Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, confirmed on Sunday that Kyiv had received high-powered air-defence systems for the first time from the US. The National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) was promised by Washington last month.

Mr Zelensky told CBS the shipment had been received but added: “Believe me, it’s not even nearly enough to cover the civilian infrastructure, schools, hospitals, universities, homes of Ukrainians.”


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26 Sep 2022, 6:55 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
US will take ‘catastrophic’ action if Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons
Quote:
Russia will face “catastrophic consequences” if it deploys nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the US has warned Kremlin officials.

Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, said on Sunday night that the US had “communicated directly, privately to the Russians at very high levels” how it would respond if Vladimir Putin carried out the nuclear strike threat he made during an address last week.

“If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia. The United States will respond decisively,” Mr Sullivan told NBC’s Meet the Press programme.

Mr Sullivan did not describe the nature of the planned response but said the US had privately “spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean” to Moscow.

It came as Putin’s foreign minister said on Sunday that annexed areas of Ukraine would be protected like Russian territory. Referendums in those areas are continuing, with Ukrainians under pressure from armed Moscow forces to cast their ballots.

Some of Putin’s allies, including the speaker of the State Duma, publicly broke ranks on Sunday to criticise the way in which conscripts are being recruited, amid reports of elderly and ill men being drafted after the Russian president announced a partial mobilisation order.

While the threat is seen by some as an attempt to assert control after a series of embarrassing defeats in Ukraine, Nato’s nuclear powers have started ramping up vigilance and deterrence.

In a separate interview on Sunday, Mr Sullivan said Putin’s nuclear threats were a “matter that we have to take deadly seriously”.

Military analysts believe Putin could use Russia’s military doctrine, which allows it to use nuclear weapons to defend its territory, to reframe the conflict in Ukraine as defensive.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s veteran foreign minister, said on Sunday that the Kremlin could use nuclear weapons to defend occupied Ukrainian territories, if annexed following referendums.

Russian forces have only been able to coerce one in five residents of occupied Melitopol to vote in a sham annexation referendum despite the threat of violence, its exiled mayor has said.

Since voting began on Friday, Russian officials have been going door-to-door in occupied regions flanked by gunmen to give out ballot papers and identify voters.

Ukrainians living under occupation have been warned their families would be massacred if they refuse to take part.

Despite the threats, Ivan Fedorov, Ukraine’s elected mayor of Melitopol, said: “Our citizens haven’t taken part in this fake referendum … after three days Russia has only been able to find just 20 per cent of people to vote. Nobody wants to vote, nobody wants to say yes to the Russian referendum.”

Of those forced to cast a vote, he said “90 per cent” had voted against Russia’s occupation becoming permanent

In the build-up to the vote, pro-Moscow officials blocked evacuation routes to Ukrainian-held territory, only allowing women and children to flee to occupied Crimea, Mr Fedorov said.

Mr Fedorov said men of fighting age had been blocked from leaving altogether, raising the prospect of them being forcibly drafted into Russian-backed armed forces.

Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, confirmed on Sunday that Kyiv had received high-powered air-defence systems for the first time from the US. The National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) was promised by Washington last month.

Mr Zelensky told CBS the shipment had been received but added: “Believe me, it’s not even nearly enough to cover the civilian infrastructure, schools, hospitals, universities, homes of Ukrainians.”


Militarily the US won’t do much apart from putting their own arsenal on higher alert.

They’ll be huge political moves though with pressure on neutral countries like China

The issue with mutually assured destruction or MAD is a strike against the other guarantees your own destruction.

I’ve said before the US will not end itself over Ukraine or Europe anymore than the USSR would have done over Cuba.


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26 Sep 2022, 7:42 pm

Young man shoots an officer at a recruitment centre, others torched in arsons across Russia.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/russian- ... gzjsKdmUVE


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26 Sep 2022, 9:19 pm

Yeah, the "partial mobilization" may well be the death of pootin and his regime; especially with how ineptly, swiftly, forcefully, and chaotically it is being rolled out. The fact that they are not following their public claims about only drafting reservists is really causing panic. They have even been drafting the elderly, disabled, ill, and others who do not qualify for service.


What is really concerning though, is that they are moving for forcibly mass conscript Ukrainians in the temporary occupied territories(TOT). They aren't even waiting till their sham "referendums" are done. russian officials have also been going door to door in the TOTs with armed soldiers demanding people cooperate with the "referendum" and threatening to massacre their families if they don't. These officials are then "rewarding" those who are coerced into participating by giving them a russian passport. russia has also sealled off any escape by civilians in the TOTs to Ukrainian territory and is only allowing women and children to flee into russia and Crimea. The men, at least of fighting age, are not allowed to leave those areas at all. They also may be moving to forcibly conscript Ukrainian POWs.