Nobody interested in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

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magz
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01 Oct 2022, 8:25 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
Magz means, I believe, that Ukraine would be “integrated” into NATO. Become a member of NATO.

Yes, that's what I mean.
That once Ukrainian borders are secured, there will be no objection to formal membership.


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magz
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01 Oct 2022, 8:33 am

Mikah wrote:
magz wrote:
This pipe has stopped to be valuable if they can't use it to either sell gas or pressure EU. Russia already was not fulfilling their existing contracts through them, so I don't know your "diplomatic cables" but even if the talks were taking place, they were unlikely to succeed.


Not valuable right now, no, but immeasurably valuable in multiple senses in the future. There is no guarantee that extant anti-Russian European governments will remain in power in the near future - it doesn't take many cold and hungry people to overthrow an existing ruler.
That's a very good argument to expect putin's regime to collapse soon.
If Russians were looking in the kind of perspective you attribute to them, they would not have started this war.

You also picture it like it were only European governments not wanting business with Russia and European people wanting only comfort at any price. Well, where I live, it's as far from the truth as possible. We know if Russia even partially succeeds in Ukraine, they will gather up and try again and again, eventually coming here. Preventing it is worth lots of cold and hungry winters - especially that we still remember that being part of the "Russian world" meant every winter was cold and hungry, not just one.

Mikah wrote:
magz wrote:
How much extremely valuable equipment do you send to destroy in a war?


Sure, but this is far too stupid and short-sighted to be believable. Those lines being severed mean those in charge in Europe can truthfully say that a change in party or policy won't bring the gas and cheap food back any time soon. The US's foreign policy objectives regarding NS2, Russia, Germany, Ukraine and the rest of Europe are satisfied with this action - their business interests in exporting oil will likely see a boon too. While if Russia had wanted to stop the gas for whatever reason, they could have done that by ... turning off the gas at the tap, not blowing the thing up.

It has hurt Russia's future options far more than the other side's and all for an outside chance of hurting US-Germany relations you say?
This whole war is extremely short-sighted from Russian perspective.
They are achieving exactly the opposite to what they wanted - united Ukraine in its Western aspirations, made the West welcoming Ukraine, revived and expanded NATO, raised the position of Poland and Baltic States within EU... and they're losing militarily despite their excessive power, because of poor organization, commandership and logistics. Yet they keep escalating.
Being strategically efficient in something would be a rare exception in their case.


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KitLily
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01 Oct 2022, 11:16 am

Mikah wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
I feel the Russian government will eventually implode into itself.


Entirely possible, but that is unlikely to make things better. Even now, Putin contains Russian nationalism much more than he placates it. His replacement is likely to be worse.


This sounds like Britain on a larger scale. Each of our leaders recently- Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss- has been worse and more right wing/selfish.


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Last edited by KitLily on 01 Oct 2022, 11:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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01 Oct 2022, 11:17 am

magz wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
Magz means, I believe, that Ukraine would be “integrated” into NATO. Become a member of NATO.

Yes, that's what I mean.
That once Ukrainian borders are secured, there will be no objection to formal membership.


Ah right, I thought you meant Ukraine would be integrated into Russia 8O

I hope Ukraine can get into NATO peacefully ASAP.


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01 Oct 2022, 11:24 am

I don't know why I bother talking to Poles about this, I've yet to meet one who can think straight when it comes to Russia.

magz wrote:
Mikah wrote:
it doesn't take many cold and hungry people to overthrow an existing ruler.
That's a very good argument to expect putin's regime to collapse soon.


What makes you think that? Thanks to sanctions, Russia went from food importer to exporter and they have plenty of gas to burn. There are many ways the Putin regime might go, but cold and hunger is unlikely I think.

magz wrote:
If Russians were looking in the kind of perspective you attribute to them, they would not have started this war.


Source: magz's hopes and dreams.

magz wrote:
You also picture it like it were only European governments not wanting business with Russia and European people wanting only comfort at any price. Well, where I live, it's as far from the truth as possible.


I believe it. See the first sentence of this post.

magz wrote:
We know if Russia even partially succeeds in Ukraine, they will gather up and try again and again, eventually coming here.


magz wrote:
and they're losing militarily despite their excessive power, because of poor organization, commandership and logistics.


There's a slight contradiction here, you say they are losing in Ukraine and yet if they win this most pyrrhic of victories they will cut through Poland and EE like butter and the glorious days of Russian rule will return under the iron fist of their army... but if this war has shown us anything, it is that Russia is not the power it once was. How can Russia simultaneously be losing in Ukraine and be a real threat to Poland?

magz wrote:
This whole war is extremely short-sighted from Russian perspective.
They are achieving exactly the opposite to what they wanted - united Ukraine in its Western aspirations, made the West welcoming Ukraine, revived and expanded NATO, raised the position of Poland and Baltic States within EU.


And kittens remain uneaten, take that Putin... This re-framing of victory conditions and initial intentions is pretty standard war propaganda to boost morale. Literally nothing in the response of NATO/EU nations would have taken Russia by surprise, they went to war anyway knowing what would come in order to protect more immediate interests.

A short reminder of Russia's goals in this war: take Kiev quickly (maybe - it is possible that was a feint as claimed, but I suspect not), make sure NATO weapons and forces stay out of Ukraine, defend Russians in Eastern Ukraine and in doing so detach the so-called Republics from Ukraine. The Kiev blitz apparently failed, but the other objectives are still pretty much on course. If we believe the reports that Ukrainian forces are taking back territory, Russia has responded with a larger mobilization - it is far from over for Russia.

magz wrote:
Being strategically efficient in something would be a rare exception in their case.


So after all that, it's "yes they are that stupid".


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01 Oct 2022, 11:28 am

It is rather a generalisation to talk about 'Poles' isn't it? All members of a country aren't the same.


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01 Oct 2022, 11:56 am

KitLily wrote:
It is rather a generalisation to talk about 'Poles' isn't it? All members of a country aren't the same.


Well that's my experience, saying "I've yet to meet one" certainly leaves 99.99% of the Polish population out of contention. At the risk of further generalising - I've yet to meet one who can accept the most obvious of truths about this war - that Russia was provoked but that's true of almost everyone else in this country, Polish or not. No, no, Putin is always Voldemort or Hitler or a combination of both and the Russians are all orcs. Then come the accusations of being a death eater myself, it's rather annoying.

I'm not even pro-Russian, I'm anti-stupid and anti-propaganda. I don't really have a dog in this race. The only people I feel sorry for are Ukrainian civilians and Russian conscripts, who are caught in the middle of this West vs. Russia war for control.


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magz
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01 Oct 2022, 1:32 pm

Mikah wrote:
I don't know why I bother talking to Poles about this, I've yet to meet one who can think straight when it comes to Russia.
Isn't it pretty arrogant on your side?
What is "thinking straight" in your opinion? Denying the enormous corruption, tyrany and absurd of the "Russian World"? Imagining it's just like in the West, only in different first language?
It's not. We've been living in it. We know it from inside. Just like Balts and Ukrainians do. That's why they are fighting so fiercely. They know what they want to escape.

Has it ever crossed your mind that we know much better what we are talking about than you do? Or do you firmly believe that you know better than anyone else, including these directly involved?


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01 Oct 2022, 1:48 pm

I honestly wish I understood. There seems to be a fraternity, especially but not exclusively in the US, of people who go to great lengths to defend Putin. I have a hard time categorizing them according to the traditional political spectrum. Some appear to be far-right and others far-left, however they all tend to use the same vocabulary and tropes. For example, dismissing US politicians as simultaneously "neo-conservative" and "neo-liberal". Insisting there is no real difference between the 2 main US political parties as they are both the two things to which I alluded above plus being in the pocket of Wall Street. Going ballistic at any suggestion the Russian government interfered in any US election, and referring to RussiaGate as some sort of risible hoax only the most naïve could possibly fall for, along with references to the Steele Dossier and Hunter Biden's laptop. And nowadays it seems blaming the war in Ukraine on Joe Biden. They seem to feel that both Trump and Sanders are victims of conspiracies orchestrated by the same cabal, members of which might very well be <ssshhh!! !> Jewish. The ones who happen to be American insist that the war is an outgrowth of American cupidity but in the same breath that they are better Americans than anyone else. Just wish I understood. Anyone who reacts to this by calling me disingenuous at least owes the rest of us a favor by clarifying the issue.


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01 Oct 2022, 1:49 pm

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Mikah
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01 Oct 2022, 2:54 pm

magz wrote:
Isn't it pretty arrogant on your side?


Probably, but it is my experience.

magz wrote:
Denying the enormous corruption, tyrany and absurd of the "Russian World"? Imagining it's just like in the West, only in different first language?


I have done neither.

magz wrote:
What is "thinking straight" in your opinion?


For starters, the ability to sympathise with Russia and its position and not write them off as alternately insane, stupid or bloodthirsty conquerors. Following that at the very least, the ability to recognise the needless US-led provocation that brought about this war.

magz wrote:
It's not. We've been living in it. We know it from inside. Just like Balts and Ukrainians do. That's why they are fighting so fiercely. They know what they want to escape.


Is it Russia that haunts you or the Soviet Union? I dearly hope you understand the difference between the two, especially when you throw around accusations of knowing nothing at me. If you don't, that would explain a great deal about your position.

magz wrote:
Has it ever crossed your mind that we know much better what we are talking about than you do?


You might think so, but experience often proves otherwise. People in the thick of things often have totally warped perspectives.


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01 Oct 2022, 3:10 pm

Mikah wrote:
magz wrote:
Isn't it pretty arrogant on your side?


Probably, but it is my experience.

magz wrote:
Denying the enormous corruption, tyrany and absurd of the "Russian World"? Imagining it's just like in the West, only in different first language?


I have done neither.

magz wrote:
What is "thinking straight" in your opinion?


For starters, the ability to sympathise with Russia and its position and not write them off as alternately insane, stupid or bloodthirsty conquerors. Following that at the very least, the ability to recognise the needless US-led provocation that brought about this war.

magz wrote:
It's not. We've been living in it. We know it from inside. Just like Balts and Ukrainians do. That's why they are fighting so fiercely. They know what they want to escape.


Is it Russia that haunts you or the Soviet Union? I dearly hope you understand the difference between the two, especially when you throw around accusations of knowing nothing at me. If you don't, that would explain a great deal about your position.

magz wrote:
Has it ever crossed your mind that we know much better what we are talking about than you do?


You might think so, but experience often proves otherwise. People in the thick of things often have totally warped perspectives.

Sounds like someone's been drinking from the cup of russian propaganda.. wow.


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01 Oct 2022, 3:51 pm

goldfish21 wrote:
Sounds like someone's been drinking from the cup of russian propaganda.. wow.


And this is pretty much the usual level of debate in these discussions.


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01 Oct 2022, 4:04 pm

Mikah wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
Sounds like someone's been drinking from the cup of russian propaganda.. wow.


And this is pretty much the usual level of debate in these discussions.

That’s what happens when you regurgitate propaganda and/or conspiracy theories as challenges to someone’s actual real world knowledge and lived experience about an issue. There’s not really much of anything to debate when you’re so clearly wrong.


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magz
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01 Oct 2022, 4:08 pm

Mikah wrote:
magz wrote:
Denying the enormous corruption, tyrany and absurd of the "Russian World"? Imagining it's just like in the West, only in different first language?
I have done neither.
Then why do you insist Russian decision-making process is effectiveness-oriented?

Mikah wrote:
magz wrote:
What is "thinking straight" in your opinion?
For starters, the ability to sympathise with Russia and its position and not write them off as alternately insane, stupid or bloodthirsty conquerors.
What exactly do you sympathize with? Not wanting to lose "sphere of influence"? That's pure imperialism.
Mikah wrote:
Following that at the very least, the ability to recognise the needless US-led provocation that brought about this war.
What provocation and why do you ignore the role of Ukrainians themselves?
If Ukrainians did not want to join the "collective West", USA could do anything and they would gain nothing, just like they regularily fail in Middle East.

Mikah wrote:
magz wrote:
It's not. We've been living in it. We know it from inside. Just like Balts and Ukrainians do. That's why they are fighting so fiercely. They know what they want to escape.
Is it Russia that haunts you or the Soviet Union? I dearly hope you understand the difference between the two, especially when you throw around accusations of knowing nothing at me. If you don't, that would explain a great deal about your position.
Tsardom, Soviet Union, Putinism. All are dictatorships founded on lies, corruption and terror.
How does Putinist Russia "protect the right of Russian speakers" in Ukraine? Take a look at Severodonetsk or Mariupol. How do they care for their own citizens? Look at how the mobilization works.
Russia 15 years ago was indeed quite away from what we remember from Soviet times* - but it didn't take them long to go back to the old patterns.

Mikah wrote:
magz wrote:
Has it ever crossed your mind that we know much better what we are talking about than you do?
You might think so, but experience often proves otherwise. People in the thick of things often have totally warped perspectives.
In short, you believe you know better than everyone else - those away know too little (even if they are specialists on the topic), those close have warped perspectives, and probably all the international investigations are secretly ruled by evil overlords of CIA, right?

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01 Oct 2022, 4:11 pm

goldfish21 wrote:
That’s what happens when you regurgitate propaganda and/or conspiracy theories as challenges to someone’s actual real world knowledge and lived experience about an issue. There’s not really much of anything to debate when you’re so clearly wrong.


Then you can rebut it. I assume you know recent Ukrainian history, post-WW2 American foreign policy, both realised and unrealised and the general argument that this war was a result of American provocation and have a counter argument. I assume, because only a complete fool would have said what you just did without that to hand.


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beyond all mountains steep,
above all shadows rides the Sun
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I will not say the Day is done,
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