Russia... Confused about what's going on...

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Angnix
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23 Feb 2022, 11:46 pm

Well, what I heard on the radio was Trump was siding with Russia on this Ukraine business... But one of my rightist relatives posted on her timeline "Russia's attacking, we need Trump back!" Then I got confused by her explanation on how Trumps friendship with Putin prevented war "better friends than enemies"

Can someone clarify??? I am so confused by both sides right now idk...

In the meantime yes, the cost of everything is rising yes people aren't working, the right sights socialistic handouts, left says living wage...

I really... Really getting confused as someone kinda politically in the middle...


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kitesandtrainsandcats
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23 Feb 2022, 11:59 pm

Though not an answer to that specific question about what's going on I will suggest reading this from 2014 about the the crisis of that year and the history of what's going on with Ukraine here in the 21st century, though the ultimate "origin" of what is going on goes back multiple centuries.

Quote:
Everything you need to know about the Ukraine crisis
By Max Fisher Sep 3, 2014


... This all began as an internal Ukrainian crisis in November 2013, when President Viktor Yanukovych rejected a deal for greater integration with the European Union (here's why this was such a big deal), sparking mass protests, which Yanukovych attempted to put down violently. Russia backed Yanukovych in the crisis, while the US and Europe supported the protesters.

Since then, several big things have happened. In February, anti-government protests toppled the government and ran Yanukovych out of the country. Russia, trying to salvage its lost influence in Ukraine, invaded and annexed Crimea the next month. In April, pro-Russia separatist rebels began seizing territory in eastern Ukraine. The rebels shot down Malaysian Airlines flight 17 on July 17, killing 298 people, probably accidentally. Fighting between the rebels and the Ukrainian military intensified, the rebels started losing, and, in August, the Russian army overtly invaded eastern Ukraine to support the rebels. This has all brought the relationship between Russia and the West to its lowest point since the Cold War. Sanctions are pushing the Russian economy to the brink of recession, and more than 2,500 Ukrainians have been killed.

A lot of this comes down to Ukraine's centuries-long history of Russian domination. The country has been divided more or less evenly between Ukrainians who see Ukraine as part of Europe and those who see it as intrinsically linked to Russia. An internal political crisis over that disagreement may have been inevitable. Meanwhile, in Russia, Putin is pushing an imperial-revival, nationalist worldview that sees Ukraine as part of greater Russia — and as the victim of ever-encroaching Western hostility.

It appears unlikely that Ukraine will get Crimea back. It remains unclear whether Russian forces will try to annex parts of eastern Ukraine as well, how the fighting there will end, and what this means for the future of Ukraine — and for Putin's increasingly hostile but isolated Russia.
...
"

https://www.vox.com/2014/9/3/18088560/u ... ed-to-know

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Quote:
How did Ukraine get so divided?

You have to remember that Ukraine's present-day borders are very new and that its historical ties to Russia are very old. So the distinction between Ukraine and Russia is a bit blurrier than the distinction between, say, France and Germany.

That line started blurring in the 1700s, when Russian leader Catherine the Great began a process of "Russifying" Ukraine — making it Russian — that continued right up through the 1950s. This meant shipping in ethnic Russians, imposing laws that required schools to teach the Russian rather than Ukrainian language, and stationing lots of Russian troops in the area. At some points in the 1800s, the Ukrainian language was banned outright.

In the 1930s, Soviet leader Josef Stalin caused a famine in Ukraine that killed several million Ukrainians, mostly in the east. He then repopulated the area with ethnic Russians. In the 1940s, Stalin forcibly relocated the ethnic Tatars who dominated Crimea's population, replacing them with Russians as well. (Some of those Tatars, who are Muslim and ethnically Turkic, have since moved back; they are a minority in Crimea and have expressed fear about returning to Russian rule.)

For most of this process, Russia focused overwhelmingly on the east, which has vast coal, iron, and some of the most fertile farmland on earth. Ukraine's linguistic dividing line matches up almost perfectly with the line between its farmland in the east and forestland in the west.

The effect of all this history is that lots of Ukrainians, very understandably, despise Russia and want nothing to do with it. But there's also a significant proportion of Ukrainians whose families have substantial connections to Russia, who may remember the Soviet era fondly, and do not want to break away quite so fully as does the west. This national identity crisis has been centuries in the making, and it is a big issue today.


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The_Walrus
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24 Feb 2022, 12:44 am

Angnix wrote:
Well, what I heard on the radio was Trump was siding with Russia on this Ukraine business... But one of my rightist relatives posted on her timeline "Russia's attacking, we need Trump back!" Then I got confused by her explanation on how Trumps friendship with Putin prevented war "better friends than enemies"

Can someone clarify??? I am so confused by both sides right now idk...

In the meantime yes, the cost of everything is rising yes people aren't working, the right sights socialistic handouts, left says living wage...

I really... Really getting confused as someone kinda politically in the middle...

Well, one way of looking at it is that those two points aren’t actually contradictory. Trump praising Putin’s invasion is, in a way, a suggestion that he might be inclined to be friendly towards Putin at this time.

That said, I don’t think Trump being President would have stopped Putin from invading Ukraine. Putin did some very bad things during Trump’s Presidency. Ultimately he’s not interested in friendship, he’s interested in doing whatever he thinks he can get away with.

I also your relative might be forgetting how hard Trump was on Putin at times. Trump’s expulsion of diplomats after the Salisbury poisonings was the single biggest actions the US has taken against Russia since 1991.

The US is not getting drawn into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine because Ukraine is not a NATO member and doesn’t have an equivalent bilateral agreement with the US. However, if Putin invaded a NATO member like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia then there would be a reaction from NATO.

As for the cost of living, employment is doing better than you might expect. Inflation has been particularly bad in the US and that is probably partially due to the stimulus checks and Biden’s spending, but that doesn’t mean calls for better pay aren’t justified - it is a complex issue.



Angnix
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25 Feb 2022, 1:16 am

From what I understand from my relatives posts, they sort of seen the Trump era as sort of "ideal" as in costs of products were down and no wars broke out...

But... I don't think those things were necessary true just because Trump was president...

I just give up, this whole thing has ripped my family with differing views apart...


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25 Feb 2022, 2:35 am

Trump would have respected the power balance in the region and would not have meddled in Ukraine.

Obama administration with Biden as VP meddled heavily in Ukrainian affairs, with Biden's son involved in graft on the board of the state gas company in Ukraine, a historically important item in Russia-Europe relations due to the gas transit into Europe. Biden's been aggressively pushing American LNG sales into Europe at about double the cost, and creating political tension was an instrument in accomplishing that goal.

The 2014 Maidan coup orchestrated by the Obama administration resulted in the loss of Crimea to Russia in a tactical response, and now in 2022 a tactical response to NATO presence in Ukraine, presumably under the direction of Biden. It's possible that Biden is motivated by a personal vendetta after being exposed in Ukrainian state gas affairs. It's not clear what the fate of Ukraine will be now.

It's a fair assessment that with Trump at the helm (who was among other things impeached for withholding military aid to Ukraine) Ukraine would have remained sovereign and whole, not provoking a response from Russia.

Whether Ukraine was used as an expendable pawn or critical miscalculations by the Obama and Biden administrations, the country has been torn apart as a result.


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25 Feb 2022, 3:15 am

^ Sorry, how is withholding military aid to Ukraine not “meddling”?

Almost everything else in your post is wrong too, but that’s the most glaring because you contradict it yourself!



r00tb33r
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25 Feb 2022, 3:21 am

The_Walrus wrote:
^ Sorry, how is withholding military aid to Ukraine not “meddling”?

Almost everything else in your post is wrong too, but that’s the most glaring because you contradict it yourself!

You seem to have a logic failure in your post.

Witholding military aid to Ukraine reduces American involvement in Ukraine, military aid being a form of meddling.

My post does not contradict itself, thank you for your concern. Have a nice day.


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25 Feb 2022, 6:11 am

Angnix wrote:
Well, what I heard on the radio was Trump was siding with Russia on this Ukraine business... But one of my rightist relatives posted on her timeline "Russia's attacking, we need Trump back!" Then I got confused by her explanation on how Trumps friendship with Putin prevented war "better friends than enemies"

Can someone clarify??? I am so confused by both sides right now idk...

In the meantime yes, the cost of everything is rising yes people aren't working, the right sights socialistic handouts, left says living wage...

I really... Really getting confused as someone kinda politically in the middle...
Russia is attacking - way away from you.
We could go all what if Trump but it's meaningless. Trump congratulated Putin on his move, that's all we know about him on this.

From the point of view of an American civilian, it's just another war on some other continent. From the local point of view - tragic as hell.
As with all the wars in the last 140 years.


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The_Walrus
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25 Feb 2022, 8:58 am

r00tb33r wrote:
The_Walrus wrote:
^ Sorry, how is withholding military aid to Ukraine not “meddling”?

Almost everything else in your post is wrong too, but that’s the most glaring because you contradict it yourself!

You seem to have a logic failure in your post.

Witholding military aid to Ukraine reduces American involvement in Ukraine, military aid being a form of meddling.

My post does not contradict itself, thank you for your concern. Have a nice day.

Saying “I’ll withhold military aid unless you frame my political opponent” is known as blackmail, and by any reasonable measure is a form of meddling.

Giving someone help when they ask for it is not meddling.



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25 Feb 2022, 6:16 pm

What I am curious about is, why is Putin invading now, since he has been the leader of Russia for many years now. Is there any significance that waiting until now has, or anything special about waiting until now to do it?



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25 Feb 2022, 7:33 pm

ironpony wrote:
What I am curious about is, why is Putin invading now, since he has been the leader of Russia for many years now. Is there any significance that waiting until now has, or anything special about waiting until now to do it?

Because there was no motive to do it until now.

For a long time there was a largely cooperative government there until the 2014 coup that threatened warm water access for the Russian navy, which resulted in Crimean annexation. That seemed to hold off the NATO and EU expansion as the country involved in a land dispute couldn't join. In recent months bilateral efforts seemed to increase the likelihood of either membership or NATO cooperation, including new presence of NATO staff (in advisory role) and equipment on the territory of Ukraine. That seemed to have forced Putin's hand.


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magz
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26 Feb 2022, 3:05 am

You claim not to be interested in politics yet you go to plentiful threads to voice strong opinons... like claiming it's NATO fault that Russia invaded Ukraine because they didn't outright reject them and held talks.

Why now? It was being prepared for quite a time. This summer we saw a surge in Russian-based new "users", some acting as regular spammers and some trying to get regular users PM them. Thanks to a bug in their script, they were easily tracable by our mod team but I'm sure other social media are full of them, too.

Joined Russian-Belarussian exercises resulted in Russian army staying in Belarus in great numbers.

And, the only politician Putin apparently respects is Xi - Putin waited for end of Olympic Games in Benjing before starting the war.

That's roughly the timing of it.


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r00tb33r
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26 Feb 2022, 4:32 am

magz wrote:
You claim not to be interested in politics yet you go to plentiful threads to voice strong opinons...

Actually, I stayed out of politics completely over the years and stayed out of the politics and religion section of the forum entirely up until about a week ago. I noticed a pattern of extremely ignorant and narrative-driven posts on the subject and it deeply upset me. There are hypocritical *phobes here in a very thin disguise. I've made an effort to paint a more complete picture on the subject. Once this is over I feel like I might take a long break from this site as I no longer feel good about the company of members here, I think much less of a number of people here now.

magz wrote:
This summer we saw a surge in Russian-based new "users", some acting as regular spammers and some trying to get regular users PM them.

Congratulations, you encountered a spam bot. I too sporadically administer a commerce site and have been dealing with spam just as much. There is a cloud-based spam filter in place but some still get through sometimes. It's gotten pretty good these days.

magz wrote:
And, the only politician Putin apparently respects is Xi - Putin waited for end of Olympic Games in Benjing before starting the war.

That's roughly the timing of it.

Actually, the Maidan coup was ongoing during the 2014 games, and likewise, Putin waited until the end of the games to annex Crimea. Supposedly it was a mission that was planned and executed in a day, there was no advance preparation for it.


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magz
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26 Feb 2022, 4:45 am

r00tb33r wrote:
Actually, I stayed out of politics completely over the years
And now you're claiming to be better informed than those who've been following it closely. Things that were happening in Belarus recently, demands of Putin that could not have been fulfilled...

I encounter spam bots on daily basis. A surge starting this summer was like suddenly 300%-400% additional spam bots connected to Russia, all with the same script bug mark that we've not seen previously.


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r00tb33r
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26 Feb 2022, 5:02 am

magz wrote:
r00tb33r wrote:
Actually, I stayed out of politics completely over the years
And now you're claiming to be better informed than those who've been following it closely.

I encounter spam bots on daily basis. A surge starting this summer was like suddenly 300% additional spam bots connected to Russia.

What, you think the forum is a prime news source? I mean I do work as... nevermind.

So you think I can't be informed outside of this here forum? "More closely" than who, exactly?

I do have a bit of history with that region, I have family across Europe, and I have traveled much of it, the eastern part especially, I've been to the region twice in the past year. I do pay attention to what's going on there. Been to Poland too, Warsaw and Krakow primarily, several times, actually. I have visited Crimea before... didn't see any Ukraine there.


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magz
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26 Feb 2022, 5:17 am

You claimed to stay away from politics. I did not interpret it as "stay away from politics on WP" but as "stay away from politics".

I've been to Crimea in 2004. Russian and Ukrainian speakers on streets were about 50/50. Things changed after annexing Crimea. My father regularily visited Kiev in the meantime and he reported changes e.g. in language: native Russian speakers identifying as Ukrainian spoke with Russian words pronounced Ukrainian way. Putin did a lot to unite this nation.


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