Why does the US choose to fight wars this way?

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ironpony
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14 Mar 2022, 1:04 am

funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Oh okay but I didn't think Ukraine had a chance against a nuclear power without a lot of help from others though, not just funding but a lot of actual combat help.

But also, as for Putins own people not liking him as a result, it's very rare that people are willing to overthrow their own leader, just because they do not like him though.


Rare, but not impossible - it could happen if the sanctions hurt ordinary Russians badly enough.

Also, we don't need the majority of Russians to act.. nor a very large minority. Really, all we need is One Russian that's close enough to putin that dislikes him and his ways and this war enough to put an end to it all.


How have those sanctions on Cuba, Iran and North Korea worked out? :scratch:

Putin's about to realize how much his buddies embezzled from his army and how much of a paper tiger he's always been. That might trigger your One Russian scenario, but that guy's probably gonna be another Putin. I agree there's a serious likelihood of that happening and in the short-term it will be good for Ukraine but I wouldn't count on it resolving the whole matter of how Russia relates to the rest of the world in the long-term.

Widespread antiwar protests leading to a change of course would likely lead to a preferable outcome compared to the biggest mobster getting killed and the underbosses fighting it out.


Well I guess whether or not sanctions will actually work on Putin or whether Putin needs to actually be killed to be beaten, will determine whether or not the pen is actually mightier than the sword?


I don't think it'll be one or the other, it'll be death by a thousand cuts where a bunch of smaller factors combine to that eventual outcome.

I'm also not really expecting it to be a happy ending, even in a best case scenario.


It won't be a happy ending for sure, I just thought that the rest of the world doesn't do actually fight, and we just fight the fight with one hand tied around our b%$$s so to speak, that it will most likely lead to a lot more Ukrainians being killed.



funeralxempire
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14 Mar 2022, 1:15 am

ironpony wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Oh okay but I didn't think Ukraine had a chance against a nuclear power without a lot of help from others though, not just funding but a lot of actual combat help.

But also, as for Putins own people not liking him as a result, it's very rare that people are willing to overthrow their own leader, just because they do not like him though.


Rare, but not impossible - it could happen if the sanctions hurt ordinary Russians badly enough.

Also, we don't need the majority of Russians to act.. nor a very large minority. Really, all we need is One Russian that's close enough to putin that dislikes him and his ways and this war enough to put an end to it all.


How have those sanctions on Cuba, Iran and North Korea worked out? :scratch:

Putin's about to realize how much his buddies embezzled from his army and how much of a paper tiger he's always been. That might trigger your One Russian scenario, but that guy's probably gonna be another Putin. I agree there's a serious likelihood of that happening and in the short-term it will be good for Ukraine but I wouldn't count on it resolving the whole matter of how Russia relates to the rest of the world in the long-term.

Widespread antiwar protests leading to a change of course would likely lead to a preferable outcome compared to the biggest mobster getting killed and the underbosses fighting it out.


Well I guess whether or not sanctions will actually work on Putin or whether Putin needs to actually be killed to be beaten, will determine whether or not the pen is actually mightier than the sword?


I don't think it'll be one or the other, it'll be death by a thousand cuts where a bunch of smaller factors combine to that eventual outcome.

I'm also not really expecting it to be a happy ending, even in a best case scenario.


It won't be a happy ending for sure, I just thought that the rest of the world doesn't do actually fight, and we just fight the fight with one hand tied around our b%$$s so to speak, that it will most likely lead to a lot more Ukrainians being killed.


It probably will, but it's the same as any other situation where people want to remain not involved or only involved in a manner where their own safety isn't impacted. It hasn't become our fight until we're directly involved and it's understandable why we might not want to charge in like a gamebred pitbull.


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14 Mar 2022, 1:19 am

I see that reasoning as well. But if people do not get involved and if NATO doesn't actually fight, what that does is, is that leaves other countries around the world open to nuclear blackmail. North Korea will see this, and think "hey, we can invade South Korea and take it like we wanted to because the world will not fight us if we do, just look at how they are not fighting for Ukrain being taken over!".

China will think this too and Taiwan will be open to nuclear blackmail. So by not fighting Russia back more effectively, all these other dictatorship countries, will see this as opportunity to do the same thing without fear of grave consequence.



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14 Mar 2022, 1:24 am

ironpony wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Oh okay, I thought Putin was just so sociopathic that he was not going to break at all no matter what he is faced with, but perhaps I am overestimating him too much.

And I thought that Russia had all this same military equipment the Ukraine had. Could the Ukraine fight back dirty as well, such as taking captured Russians hostage and use them as bargaining chips perhaps? But also, how long till Putin's next election, if the war can afford to wait for that?


I don't mean Putin will break though, I mean Russia will break. The same way it broke in 1991, or 1917, or 1905... A more free society has release mechanisms for those sorts of pressures but a more autocratic society doesn't and that allows for the appearance of change. Putin pretty much needs to back down while still being able to claim victory in order to not hold all the blame and lose legitimacy.

For the most part Russia and Ukraine have similar military equipment, except Russia's is usually upgraded and they have more of it. Ukraine has Turkish drones and of western missiles though.

Putin doesn't face fair elections, I said the opposite of how you might have read it. :oops:


Oh okay I read it as if you meant he might not be re-elected as a result of this, I apologize if I read it wrong.

So the point of the sanctions then, is to motivate the Russian people into overthrowing Putin then? Is that really an effective way to win a war though, instead of fighting the nation yourselves, you just manipulate the nation's people into overthrowing their leader? It seems that might not be as effective or if you can even motivate them enough to do that.


The sanctions go way further than that. They prevent the import of electronics needed to manufacturer and support a wide range of Russian weapons systems (fighters and strike aircraft, precision guided ordinance for them, etc). Think of something similar to what's impacting the car industry getting the chips they need, only if the supply was zero overnight.

They pretty much gut the ability of Russian industry to get funding from abroad or to serve foreign markets.

The interfere with imports of all sorts of luxury goods that the oligarchs that support Russia want access to, along with their ability to travel abroad, do business abroad, etc.

I'd suggest that the goal shouldn't be to torture the average Russian and that to actively make that a priority is atrocious. I don't believe it will be productive either because they'll blame us, not him. The war will become unpopular on it's own if they keep losing. Russian mothers don't want to collect their sons bodies after they were sent to go murder their neighbours.


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14 Mar 2022, 1:25 am

ironpony wrote:
I see that reasoning as well. But if people do not get involved and if NATO doesn't actually fight, what that does is, is that leaves other countries around the world open to nuclear blackmail. North Korea will see this, and think "hey, we can invade South Korea and take it like we wanted to because the world will not fight us if we do, just look at how they are not fighting for Ukrain being taken over!".

China will think this too and Taiwan will be open to nuclear blackmail. So by not fighting Russia back more effectively, all these other dictatorship countries, will see this as opportunity to do the same thing without fear of grave consequence.


The thing is, the US has treaties with South Korea and Taiwan, attacks on those are more like Russia attacking Poland or Germany than Russia attacking Ukraine.


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14 Mar 2022, 1:29 am

funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Oh okay, I thought Putin was just so sociopathic that he was not going to break at all no matter what he is faced with, but perhaps I am overestimating him too much.

And I thought that Russia had all this same military equipment the Ukraine had. Could the Ukraine fight back dirty as well, such as taking captured Russians hostage and use them as bargaining chips perhaps? But also, how long till Putin's next election, if the war can afford to wait for that?


I don't mean Putin will break though, I mean Russia will break. The same way it broke in 1991, or 1917, or 1905... A more free society has release mechanisms for those sorts of pressures but a more autocratic society doesn't and that allows for the appearance of change. Putin pretty much needs to back down while still being able to claim victory in order to not hold all the blame and lose legitimacy.

For the most part Russia and Ukraine have similar military equipment, except Russia's is usually upgraded and they have more of it. Ukraine has Turkish drones and of western missiles though.

Putin doesn't face fair elections, I said the opposite of how you might have read it. :oops:


Oh okay I read it as if you meant he might not be re-elected as a result of this, I apologize if I read it wrong.

So the point of the sanctions then, is to motivate the Russian people into overthrowing Putin then? Is that really an effective way to win a war though, instead of fighting the nation yourselves, you just manipulate the nation's people into overthrowing their leader? It seems that might not be as effective or if you can even motivate them enough to do that.


The sanctions go way further than that. They prevent the import of electronics needed to manufacturer and support a wide range of Russian weapons systems (fighters and strike aircraft, precision guided ordinance for them, etc). Think of something similar to what's impacting the car industry getting the chips they need, only if the supply was zero overnight.

They pretty much gut the ability of Russian industry to get funding from abroad or to serve foreign markets.

The interfere with imports of all sorts of luxury goods that the oligarchs that support Russia want access to, along with their ability to travel abroad, do business abroad, etc.

I'd suggest that the goal shouldn't be to torture the average Russian and that to actively make that a priority is atrocious. I don't believe it will be productive either because they'll blame us, not him. The war will become unpopular on it's own if they keep losing. Russian mothers don't want to collect their sons bodies after they were sent to go murder their neighbours.


But what I don't understand is, if the sanctions are not about motivating the Russian people to snap and do something, than what is the goal of them then? Putin is not going to take the sanctions seriously, so who are the sanctioners trying to motivate therefore?

But as for the sanctions stopping things like electronics for Russian weapons systems, doesn't Russia already have those electronics for their weapons anyway, so the sanctions are not too late, because they already have them?



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14 Mar 2022, 1:33 am

funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
I see that reasoning as well. But if people do not get involved and if NATO doesn't actually fight, what that does is, is that leaves other countries around the world open to nuclear blackmail. North Korea will see this, and think "hey, we can invade South Korea and take it like we wanted to because the world will not fight us if we do, just look at how they are not fighting for Ukrain being taken over!".

China will think this too and Taiwan will be open to nuclear blackmail. So by not fighting Russia back more effectively, all these other dictatorship countries, will see this as opportunity to do the same thing without fear of grave consequence.


The thing is, the US has treaties with South Korea and Taiwan, attacks on those are more like Russia attacking Poland or Germany than Russia attacking Ukraine.


Oh okay I see. On that note, Putin said his reason for invading Ukraine was that the Ukraine might become a part of NATO, but the Ukraine hasn't become part of NATO though, so was it just a worry and no real confirmation that they were ever really going to be? I mean NATO never took them it seems.



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14 Mar 2022, 1:38 am

ironpony wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Oh okay, I thought Putin was just so sociopathic that he was not going to break at all no matter what he is faced with, but perhaps I am overestimating him too much.

And I thought that Russia had all this same military equipment the Ukraine had. Could the Ukraine fight back dirty as well, such as taking captured Russians hostage and use them as bargaining chips perhaps? But also, how long till Putin's next election, if the war can afford to wait for that?


I don't mean Putin will break though, I mean Russia will break. The same way it broke in 1991, or 1917, or 1905... A more free society has release mechanisms for those sorts of pressures but a more autocratic society doesn't and that allows for the appearance of change. Putin pretty much needs to back down while still being able to claim victory in order to not hold all the blame and lose legitimacy.

For the most part Russia and Ukraine have similar military equipment, except Russia's is usually upgraded and they have more of it. Ukraine has Turkish drones and of western missiles though.

Putin doesn't face fair elections, I said the opposite of how you might have read it. :oops:


Oh okay I read it as if you meant he might not be re-elected as a result of this, I apologize if I read it wrong.

So the point of the sanctions then, is to motivate the Russian people into overthrowing Putin then? Is that really an effective way to win a war though, instead of fighting the nation yourselves, you just manipulate the nation's people into overthrowing their leader? It seems that might not be as effective or if you can even motivate them enough to do that.


The sanctions go way further than that. They prevent the import of electronics needed to manufacturer and support a wide range of Russian weapons systems (fighters and strike aircraft, precision guided ordinance for them, etc). Think of something similar to what's impacting the car industry getting the chips they need, only if the supply was zero overnight.

They pretty much gut the ability of Russian industry to get funding from abroad or to serve foreign markets.

The interfere with imports of all sorts of luxury goods that the oligarchs that support Russia want access to, along with their ability to travel abroad, do business abroad, etc.

I'd suggest that the goal shouldn't be to torture the average Russian and that to actively make that a priority is atrocious. I don't believe it will be productive either because they'll blame us, not him. The war will become unpopular on it's own if they keep losing. Russian mothers don't want to collect their sons bodies after they were sent to go murder their neighbours.


But what I don't understand is, if the sanctions are not about motivating the Russian people to snap and do something, than what is the goal of them then? Putin is not going to take the sanctions seriously, so who are the sanctioners trying to motivate therefore?


It's not as simple of matter as not taking the sanctions seriously.

A man who wants to build a military needs to be able to build that military, for example. No chips, no missiles, no fighter planes, no ability to sustain combat operations as stocks dwindle. Russia isn't able to manufacturer the sorts of sophisticated chips needed to build their own military hardware, they import some of what they need and those things are included in the sanctions. Even America ran low on certain types of munitions during the Iraq war at times, and they were producing at full steam ahead without any sanctions imposed.

If your real concern is being able to defend against America there comes a point where you stop wasting your limited resources in Ukraine.

Beyond that, the rich people in Russia will also exert pressure if they can't do the things they want to do. Whether or not that pressure works is to be seen, but if he gets killed that'll probably be why.


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funeralxempire
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14 Mar 2022, 1:40 am

ironpony wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
I see that reasoning as well. But if people do not get involved and if NATO doesn't actually fight, what that does is, is that leaves other countries around the world open to nuclear blackmail. North Korea will see this, and think "hey, we can invade South Korea and take it like we wanted to because the world will not fight us if we do, just look at how they are not fighting for Ukrain being taken over!".

China will think this too and Taiwan will be open to nuclear blackmail. So by not fighting Russia back more effectively, all these other dictatorship countries, will see this as opportunity to do the same thing without fear of grave consequence.


The thing is, the US has treaties with South Korea and Taiwan, attacks on those are more like Russia attacking Poland or Germany than Russia attacking Ukraine.


Oh okay I see. On that note, Putin said his reason for invading Ukraine was that the Ukraine might become a part of NATO, but the Ukraine hasn't become part of NATO though, so was it just a worry and no real confirmation that they were ever really going to be? I mean NATO never took them it seems.


Joining NATO is a long process, but the threat of Ukraine joining seems to kinda depend on how worried they are about aggression from the same country that doesn't want them to consider joining.


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14 Mar 2022, 1:44 am

funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
ironpony wrote:
Oh okay, I thought Putin was just so sociopathic that he was not going to break at all no matter what he is faced with, but perhaps I am overestimating him too much.

And I thought that Russia had all this same military equipment the Ukraine had. Could the Ukraine fight back dirty as well, such as taking captured Russians hostage and use them as bargaining chips perhaps? But also, how long till Putin's next election, if the war can afford to wait for that?


I don't mean Putin will break though, I mean Russia will break. The same way it broke in 1991, or 1917, or 1905... A more free society has release mechanisms for those sorts of pressures but a more autocratic society doesn't and that allows for the appearance of change. Putin pretty much needs to back down while still being able to claim victory in order to not hold all the blame and lose legitimacy.

For the most part Russia and Ukraine have similar military equipment, except Russia's is usually upgraded and they have more of it. Ukraine has Turkish drones and of western missiles though.

Putin doesn't face fair elections, I said the opposite of how you might have read it. :oops:


Oh okay I read it as if you meant he might not be re-elected as a result of this, I apologize if I read it wrong.

So the point of the sanctions then, is to motivate the Russian people into overthrowing Putin then? Is that really an effective way to win a war though, instead of fighting the nation yourselves, you just manipulate the nation's people into overthrowing their leader? It seems that might not be as effective or if you can even motivate them enough to do that.


The sanctions go way further than that. They prevent the import of electronics needed to manufacturer and support a wide range of Russian weapons systems (fighters and strike aircraft, precision guided ordinance for them, etc). Think of something similar to what's impacting the car industry getting the chips they need, only if the supply was zero overnight.

They pretty much gut the ability of Russian industry to get funding from abroad or to serve foreign markets.

The interfere with imports of all sorts of luxury goods that the oligarchs that support Russia want access to, along with their ability to travel abroad, do business abroad, etc.

I'd suggest that the goal shouldn't be to torture the average Russian and that to actively make that a priority is atrocious. I don't believe it will be productive either because they'll blame us, not him. The war will become unpopular on it's own if they keep losing. Russian mothers don't want to collect their sons bodies after they were sent to go murder their neighbours.


But what I don't understand is, if the sanctions are not about motivating the Russian people to snap and do something, than what is the goal of them then? Putin is not going to take the sanctions seriously, so who are the sanctioners trying to motivate therefore?


It's not as simple of matter as not taking the sanctions seriously.

A man who wants to build a military needs to be able to build that military, for example. No chips, no missiles, no fighter planes, no ability to sustain combat operations as stocks dwindle. Russia isn't able to manufacturer the sorts of sophisticated chips needed to build their own military hardware, they import some of what they need and those things are included in the sanctions. Even America ran low on certain types of munitions during the Iraq war at times, and they were producing at full steam ahead without any sanctions imposed.

If your real concern is being able to defend against America there comes a point where you stop wasting your limited resources in Ukraine.

Beyond that, the rich people in Russia will also exert pressure if they can't do the things they want to do. Whether or not that pressure works is to be seen, but if he gets killed that'll probably be why.


Oh okay, I thought that Russia could just get their computer chips from China or some place like that that manufactures electronics and are not a part of NATO.

But also, if NATO countries have sanctioned giving him military weapon computer chips, what is NATO doing giving them these weapon chips in the first place. NATO was formed as an alliance against Russia I read, and if that is true why they supplying them with weapons then in the first place?

But also, doesn't Russia still have enough weapons to still finish off annilihating Ukraine if they wanted to? Non nuclear weapons still?

But as for the Russian people not standing for what Putin is doing it seems me that that the Russian military for example, has no problem following orders, even if the orders are murdering the people of another country. So it seems to me that the military at least, will do anything Putin says no matter how atrocious so far. So I wonder if an uprising against Putin is likely, considering how he is obeyed so well, so far in this war?



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14 Mar 2022, 2:03 am

ironpony wrote:
Oh okay, I thought that Russia could just get their computer chips from China or some place like that that manufactures electronics and are not a part of NATO.

But also, if NATO countries have sanctioned giving him military weapon computer chips, what is NATO doing giving them these weapon chips in the first place. NATO was formed as an alliance against Russia I read, and if that is true why they supplying them with weapons then in the first place?

But also, doesn't Russia still have enough weapons to still finish off annilihating Ukraine if they wanted to? Non nuclear weapons still?

But as for the Russian people not standing for what Putin is doing it seems me that that the Russian military for example, has no problem following orders, even if the orders are murdering the people of another country. So it seems to me that the military at least, will do anything Putin says no matter how atrocious so far. So I wonder if an uprising against Putin is likely, considering how he is obeyed so well, so far in this war?


The sanctions are being applied more broadly than just NATO; also, they're in response to these actions. There was nothing wrong with them being sold these chips before, Russia is entitled to have a military, they're just not entitled to use it against their neighbours.

They come from other countries, some of them even do come from China; the sanctions are structured so that if a company sells them to Russia they'll be targeted in the same way.

It's to be seen, but even hypothetically if they have it in reserves, Russia wouldn't want to find themselves at the point of scraping to the bottom of their reserves to fight a smaller neighbour that poses no threat if the real concern is being worried about a NATO invasion. It would be leaving themselves defenceless except for nukes.

I think his most professional soldiers will follow orders until the end. I wouldn't expect it of conscripts and that's why he's using the Chechens to shoot Russian deserters.


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14 Mar 2022, 2:35 am



This explains more elements of the sanctions and how they will impact the Russian defence sector.


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14 Mar 2022, 3:05 am

ironpony wrote:
Oh I didn't mean to go nuclear war, I just meant help Ukraine more effectively rather than just ship them some money and equipment. But I didn't mean nuclear.


As every 8th grader knows...and as I just got through explaining -its one and the same. A war between the main powers - has the danger of BECOMING nuclear.

Even if it doesnt become nuclear- if we could somehow magically makes nukes disappaer- do you really WANT it to be 1914 or 1939 again? Even a world war without nukes (millions, tens of millions dying) is not desireable.



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14 Mar 2022, 5:14 pm

That's a good point. I just thought Ukraine will likely lose without a lot of help.



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17 Mar 2022, 12:29 am

Would it be considered too much of an act of war on Russia by the rest of the world if NATO just shot down Russia's satelittes only, since that is not technically attacking any Russian people, or any intent to attack to Russian people, just cutting off their communications to a large degree instead?



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17 Mar 2022, 12:35 am

^ it would be an escalation that would lead to nothing good, the Russians have satellite buster missiles too, we'll just end up with no satellites and orbits littered with trash. Say goodbye to GPS, GLONASS, Starlink, phone, and TV.


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