Overturn of Roe v. Wade is a GOP disaster for winning Gen Z

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07 Feb 2023, 2:35 pm

https://www.businessinsider.com/abortio ... ing-2023-2

- The GOP win in getting the Supreme Court to strip abortion rights didn't sit well with young voters.

- A new poll reveals abortion access concerns Gen Zers much more than their older counterparts.

- With this in mind, the GOP shouldn't be surprised it's losing young voters.

The Supreme Court's Dobbs decision appears to have ruined any chance of winning over many Gen Z voters, recently released polling shows.

In June 2022, the Supreme Court overturned decades of abortion protections in its Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision.

On its face, it was a victory for the Republican Party, which for decades pushed to restrict access to abortion, but the decision is also galvanizing the youngest generation of voters to go to the voting booth and vote against GOP candidates.

According to a recently released Walton Family Foundation/Murmuration survey that specifically sought to understand the motivations of the youngest voters, 29% of Gen Z respondents said that "abortion/women's rights" was the political issue that "concerned" them most when voting, coming ahead of "the economy," (8%) "election integrity," (7%) and "no specific issue" (10%).

For the survey, Murmuration polled 3,227 15 to 25-year-olds (members of Gen Z) and 1,036 adults aged 26 or older. The Gen Z survey had a 1.7% margin of error, while the survey of adults aged 26 years or older had one of 3%.

Aside from "other," which also garnered 29%, abortion access was by far the most pressing issue amongst Gen Z.

The survey also showed that members of Gen Z appear to be much more concerned about the legislative battle for abortion access than adults aged 26 or older. While 29% of Gen Z respondents said they were concerned about abortion and women's rights, 11% of the older portion of the population said it was their top concern, an 18 percentage point difference.

According to the poll, adult respondents aged 26 or older were more likely to be concerned with the "economy" or "inflation" — each polled at 15% — than abortion access, which only received 11%.

The Murmuration survey findings aren't an anomaly — they're part of a growing trend in polling indicating that young Americans are increasingly motivated to get out and vote by the Dobbs decision.

According to polling from Gallup, 71% of respondents aged 18 to 29 identified as "pro-choice." The share of "pro-choice" respondents hiked significantly between 2021 and 2022, jumping 15 percentage points.

The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, for example, estimated that more than a quarter of people aged 18 to 29 — the second highest turnout from young voters in nearly three decades — cast a ballot in the 2022 midterm elections, which occurred just months after the Dobbs decision.

The conclusions drawn from these polls shouldn't be surprising to Republican leaders, as they've already seen voters come out in droves against a proposed constitutional amendment in Kansas post-Dobbs.

In August 2022, voters in Kansas, a Republican bastion, resoundingly rejected a proposed constitutional amendment that would have eliminated a right to abortion from the state constitution.

Over the past decade, several constitutional amendments and referendums similar to Kansas' were easily passed in other Republican-leaning states like Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana.

Those referendums and amendments, however, were voted on when Roe v. Wade was still the law of the land and voters had little indication to think its protections would be summarily overturned less than a decade later.

Since the Supreme Court punted abortion rights back to a state-to-state basis, referendums and constitutional amendments restricting abortion access will continue to pop up.

Just don't expect young voters to be on board.

Yeah, no s**t. :roll:

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07 Feb 2023, 3:44 pm

Somebody has an opinion about something. He also shows some statistics to back it up. Interesting.


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07 Feb 2023, 6:58 pm

Trump warned the GOP about that.

Trump may not be big on book learning, and think that Frederick Douglas is still alive and think that they had airports in George Washington's time, but he does have an instinct for what "sells". And he warned the GOP that being too doctrinaire about abortion was going to lose them votes.


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08 Feb 2023, 7:14 am

A national version of the Kansas referendum is probably our best shot at codifying Roe.

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09 Feb 2023, 7:32 pm

Young voters? Meh…. So what?

The problem is that there are more voters out there than just the young. Also, only time will tell if abortion is even really relevant. Hint: It’s not.

For one, laws against abortion WILL NOT STOP abortions. Laws against abortion only remove the state’s sanction of abortion. You can still travel out of state to have a legal abortion or it can go underground. Enforcement of abortion laws can’t be any more effective than saying we can reduce suicide by passing laws forbidding it.

Mississippi’s abortion law in Dobbs didn’t actually ban abortion. I think where pro-abortionists went wrong was in a knee-jerk constitutional challenge to a law that changed very little. I feel that the law was carefully crafted in such a way that SCOTUS was forced to find the argument against the law was irrational. They flew too close to the sun. Had that not happened, Mississippi would still have an abortion clinic right now.

Mississippi’s trigger law doesn’t even ban abortion. Under special circumstances you can still get an abortion. The trigger law doesn’t prevent anyone leaving the state for an abortion, and I think there’s either a federal law or exec order preventing the enforcement of criminalizing crossing state lines for abortions. And that’s pretty well common sense, anyway.

Mississippi doesn’t even have a personhood law that extends special privileges to the unborn.

There’s not even that much discussion of the issue in the state-run media anymore.

So I think once the majority of “young people” realize that anti-abortion laws affect them…like…NOT. AT. ALL. …the abortion dialogue will hit a slow fade. And, really, that has already begun.

Thing is, “young voters” will not always be young. As they age, they’ll take more issue with things that DO affect them. The less you hear about abortion, the less relevant it will be for the next generation. And it will pretty much stay that way until someone can politically exploit it.

One of the functions of SCOTUS is to protect the people from the impulsive whims of majority emotion. House members represent youth, inventiveness, and innovation. But they can be swept by trendiness and fads. The Senate is a progressive body with the benefit of experience. SCOTUS has always served to keep laws rooted in tradition and resist change when the legislature was wrong about things. Roe was a notable exception, and maybe not for the best. Brown v. Board of Education was another exception which DID have a mostly positive result (my objection to Brown is not to support racial segregation, but more in protest that you cannot reasonably FORCE races to mix. No measure to restore Civil Rights has EVER dealt with the underlying racism that fuels resentment between blacks and whites).