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Honey69
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17 Jan 2024, 12:54 pm

blitzkrieg wrote:

China is forecasted to have its population shrink rapidly in the next half century or so & it wishes to reverse that trend, I think.


https://apnews.com/article/china-popula ... ubscribers

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China’s population falls for a 2nd straight year as births drop even after end of one-child policy

BEIJING (AP) — China’s population fell by 2 million people in 2023 in its second straight annual decrease, as births dropped for the seventh straight year and deaths jumped following the end of COVID-19 restrictions, the government said Wednesday.

The number of deaths rose by 690,000 to 11.1 million, more than double the previous year’s increase. Demographers said the rise was driven by the aging of the population and the widespread COVID-19 outbreaks that started in December 2022 and continued into February of last year.

The total population stood at 1.4 billion, the statistics bureau said. China, long the most populated country in the world, dropped into second place behind India in 2023, according to U.N. estimates.

The falling births reflect a decline in the fertility rate that is a long-term economic and societal challenge for China. Women are having fewer babies despite government incentives and the easing of its one-child policy in recent years to allow up to three children.

The lower fertility rate, together with people living longer because of better health care, means China is slowly growing older, something that could slow economic growth over time and challenge the government’s finances and its ability to provide for a larger elderly population with fewer workers.

Experts expect the population decline to continue for decades, even if the fertility rate rebounds.

Demographer Zuo Xuejin, former executive vice president of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences., estimated that the proportion of the population that is 65 or older could double to more than 30% by 2050.

The government issued guidelines earlier this week on developing the “silver” economy and enhancing the well-being of older people. They included expanding geriatric hospital and nursing care, encouraging the development of clothing, food and other products suitable for older people, cracking down on scams that target the elderly and making it easier to operate a TV.

The number of births fell by 540,000, or 5.6%, which was smaller than the double-digit percent drops the previous three years. The 9 million babies born in 2023 were less than half the total in 2016. All the figures are estimates based on surveys and do not include Hong Kong and Macao. China conducts a full census every 10 years.

China, which once sought to control population growth with its one-child policy, is now facing the opposite problem. The government has sought to encourage births since gradually easing the policy over 2014 to 2016 to allow a second child and then a third child in 2021, but with little success.

Many people are delaying marriage or choosing not to have children. Even those who do often have only one child because of the high cost of educating children in cities in a highly competitive academic environment. The population of women of child-bearing age has also fallen.

Local governments are offering incentives for new children. A municipality in China’s Inner Mongolia region has started offering payments of 2,000 yuan ($280) for a second child and 5,000 yuan ($700) for a third, as well as requiring that employers give an extra 60 and 90 days of paid maternity leave for the second and third child respectively, according to an online report by state-owned China National Radio.

President Xi Jinping told the new leadership of the All-China Women’s Federation last October that it is necessary to strengthen the guidance of young people’s views on marriage, parenthood and family and promote policies that support parenthood and cope with the aging of the population, according to a report on a government website.

“We must tell good stories about family customs, guide women to play a unique role in promoting the traditional virtues of the Chinese nation ... and create a new culture of family civilization,” he was quoted as saying.

The working-age population, defined as those between 16 and 59 years old, fell to 61% of the total population, continuing a gradual decline. The proportion of those aged 60 and older ticked up to 21%. The official retirement age in China is 60 years old for men and 50 or 55 for women.

It is not clear how many people died from COVID-19 because of the sudden end to China’s “zero-COVID” restrictions in December 2022. The government has reported about 80,000 COVID-related deaths from early December to mid-February but experts believe the total was much higher. Studies have estimated deaths could have reached 1.4 million or 1.9 million.

The drop in population is expected to be less this year, because of the waning effects of the pandemic and the fact that the year of the dragon, which begins in February, is considered an auspicious year to have children, an expert said at a forum earlier this week, according to the English-language state-owned China Daily newspaper.

But Yuan Xin, a professor at Nankai University and vice-president of the China Population Association, added that “the downward trend in China’s total population is bound to be long-term and become an inherent characteristic.”


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17 Jan 2024, 1:04 pm

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:
In Ancient Sparta, it was customary for an infertile/eldery man's wife (in case she's much younger) to be impregnated by another fertile man..

The things human societies do for reproduction.

The Biblical Hebrews were THAT different. They practiced Levirite marriage in which the brother of a deceased man has to marry his brother's widow, and ...was expected to knock her up.

That was Onan's problem. He couldnt handle the thought of making kids by his brother's wife, so he kept pulling out, and 'spilling his seed upon the ground'.

God finally got so angry with him that he struck Onan dead for always doing that.

So, like a modern bank customer Onan paid a substantial penalty for early withdrawal.



Honey69
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17 Jan 2024, 2:29 pm

naturalplastic wrote:

So, like a modern bank customer Onan paid a substantial penalty for early withdrawal.


:lmao:


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Honey69
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28 Feb 2024, 9:17 am

China's Xian to give lottery tickets to newlyweds in bid to spur births

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 6c3675c604

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HONG KONG, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Authorities in China's city of Xian will spend 700,000 yuan ($97,000) on lottery tickets to give as prizes to newlyweds who present a marriage certificate, in an effort to encourage weddings at a time of fewer births.

China's population fell for a second consecutive year in 2023, with new births dropping to about half those in 2016, while marriages hit a record low in 2022. With marriage rates closely tied to birth rates as unmarried mothers are often denied child-raising benefits, Xian promised a lottery ticket to any couple presenting a marriage certificate from March 1, as "a double surprise".

"This is not only the beginning of a happy life after receiving the marriage certificate but also more likely to get a small gift," the city's civil affairs bureau said this week on its official Wechat account.

The campaign will run until November 30, it added.

China is one of the world's most expensive places to bring up a child, relative to its GDP per capita, a prominent Chinese think tank said in February as it detailed the time and opportunity cost for women who give birth.

Fewer women are opting to have children, put off by the high cost of childcare or an unwillingness to marry or put their careers on hold, while gender discrimination persists.


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28 Feb 2024, 12:10 pm

One contributing factor might be the practice of killing female babies in rural China (still). They don't have an equivalent of SS so the parents must live with their sons when they become old. Females married into another family and thus were viewed as less desirable.



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28 Feb 2024, 3:43 pm

^^^ This is a contributing factor to lower ratio of males > females

But the biggest factor is female emancipation. The fact is Chinese women are becoming independent, educated and moving to urban areas for work, They are less tied to family obligations to get married and having children.

Young Chinese women are going through the same social changes that happened earlier in the west. Larger numbers are staying single or choosing to have one kid or no kids. Coupled with less women due to infanticide these combined factors are lowering the birth rate.

The problem in China is growing and many men are forced to find brides in nearby countries such as Vietnam and Thailand,



Honey69
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06 Mar 2024, 9:08 pm

Similar situation in South Korea

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68402139

A generation ago, it was fairly common for American soldiers stationed in Korea to marry Koreans. My guess is that these international marriages are less common these days.


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cyberdad
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07 Mar 2024, 1:29 am

Honey69 wrote:
Similar situation in South Korea

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68402139

A generation ago, it was fairly common for American soldiers stationed in Korea to marry Koreans. My guess is that these international marriages are less common these days.


The upshot is that young women in the Asian tigers (China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan) who aspire for a career realise they cant have the best of both worlds and have children as well if they want to be competitive with men.



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08 Mar 2024, 10:10 am

I wonder if they will get it Or if they'll get collectively told to F off by their people.

I've heard the Chinese are Next Level patriotic compared to Americans and anyone else, so, it's possible that if the country needs babies.. they will make them. But otoh, if finances are shaky and the future doesn't look so s**t hot.. maybe people will refrain from baby makin'. Only time will tell I guess.


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08 Mar 2024, 11:09 am

goldfish21 wrote:
I wonder if they will get it Or if they'll get collectively told to F off by their people.

This situation exists and is in the majority.Only in areas with a developed market economy and far from the political center, people who do not want to have children are not condemned.
Surveys of public opinion from the Internet and offline will be two completely different results.

I don't know how many people the government wants.I don't think population decline is terrible. Even if 1.3 billion people are reduced by half, the country can function well.
What needs to be stopped is the rapid decline, which will bring many troubles such as aging and infrastructure maintenance.

If the Party Central Committee is really in a hurry, it only needs the leaders to say a few words directly to the people, just like Kim Jong-un and Mao did.I don't think they're in a hurry.


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08 Mar 2024, 11:36 am

Most developed nations have aging population problems that are going to turn into crises. Canada may be able to avoid serious crisis via immigration because despite being ridiculously expensive to live here, it's still one of the most desirable places In The World to immigrate to. So, we will likely be able to import enough young working aged labour to build roads & buildings, and with loosened regulations we can import Doctors and Nurses etc so we May be able to head off a massive problem of not enough working aged people vs. retired and elderly people who require a lot more services and healthcare. We don't and likely won't have the birthrate to maintain our own population of only ~40M. People can't afford to house and feed themselves, so they aren't making babies they don't have time or other resources for.

But countries that are not desirable to move to will end up with much more severe labour shortages and resulting economic problems.


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08 Mar 2024, 11:45 am

goldfish21 wrote:
But countries that are not desirable to move to will end up with much more severe labour shortages and resulting economic problems.

This sentence is all right.I don't know what the leaders are thinking.Not sure if they want to summon immigrants or babies.

It is said that a month ago, Shanghai just carried out a pilot reform to allow foreigners to act as legal persons of state-owned enterprises.


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Honey69
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18 Mar 2024, 8:24 am

Silver lining: Tutoring the elderly is growing fast in China:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sil ... 6c3675c604


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18 Mar 2024, 2:49 pm

Was reading an article on a typical 20 something female teacher working in China, She explains why she does not want children

Aoife Yi was just a child when she knew she didn't want her own kids.

She grew up in a single-parent family in China's southern city of Shenzhen and saw what her mum went without to be a parent.

"My mother could have lived a much more relaxing life without me," she tells the ABC.

The 26-year-old high school teacher has no plan for kids in the "foreseeable future".

She says that's because of the "prices" women may pay to become a mother in China — and not just financially.

"I'm more worried about the time and opportunity costs of bearing a child," Ms Yi says.

"I'm afraid that I won't have enough of my own time and will lose my individuality."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-17/ ... /103576120



goldfish21
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18 Mar 2024, 3:20 pm

cyberdad wrote:
Was reading an article on a typical 20 something female teacher working in China, She explains why she does not want children

Aoife Yi was just a child when she knew she didn't want her own kids.

She grew up in a single-parent family in China's southern city of Shenzhen and saw what her mum went without to be a parent.

"My mother could have lived a much more relaxing life without me," she tells the ABC.

The 26-year-old high school teacher has no plan for kids in the "foreseeable future".

She says that's because of the "prices" women may pay to become a mother in China — and not just financially.

"I'm more worried about the time and opportunity costs of bearing a child," Ms Yi says.

"I'm afraid that I won't have enough of my own time and will lose my individuality."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-17/ ... /103576120


Those same value shifts are playing out all over the world. Same here. There are a lot more heterosexual couples deciding Not to have children in order to pursue educations, careers, sports, leisure time, travelling etc. There's no longer this same societal expectation that you get hitched and start pumping out as many babies as God wills. People are doing whatever the f**k they want with their lives.

Although, many who want to start families and/or own their own home are leaving the area - relocating across the country anywhere cheaper so they can afford to house and feed a kid. Plenty of people who decide to stay here either delay having kids or never have kids because they can barely afford to house and feed themselves, so adding kids isn't a viable option unless you want to raise them in poverty OR you earn a LOT of money.


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Honey69
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19 Mar 2024, 8:07 am

Marriage rates are up in China

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-685 ... c_team=crm


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