Do you believe in UFO's and Aliens?

Post Reply New Topic

Evidence, please?

Here's some statistics for you.
My variation on Drakes's theme. "Earthlike" has a very broad definition = life sustaining. I have estimated L to include the effect of civilizations that achieve "permanence".

N = r * Fs * Fp * Ne * Fl * Fi * Fc * L

"r" stands for the number of stars in a galaxy = 2*10^11
"Fs" is the number of suitable stars (approx. 30% are the right size and spectral class or have planets with gravitationally heated moons)
"Fp" is the number of suitable suns with planets (optimism put this as high as 90%!)
"Ne" is the number of planets in a habitability zone ASSUMING liquid water is needed for life =0.7*r.
Fl = The fraction of those Earth-like planets where life actually develops =0.2
Fi = The fraction of life sites where intelligence develops =0.5
Fc = The fraction of communicative planets (those on which electromagnetic communications technology develops) = 100%
L = The "lifetime" of communicating civilizations = 0.1 achieve "permanence".

N = 2*10^11*0.3*0.9*0.7*.2*0.5*1*0.1 = 378000000 just in the milky way and a proportionate number in each of the other galaxies. Wow! is it getting crowded.

The galaxy is probably not old enough for the permanent civilizations to have had a significant effect increasing the number of inhabited sites (definition of planet being avoided here). Let's be on our best behavior; one of them may show up any day or at least come within the limits of our detection capability.

And by the way I said that to be nice. I can see you dont respect that or me.

Just-me,

You seem to define "being nice" as "agreeing with everything that Just-me says while he calls you egotistical and grants permission to speak."

The Drake Equation is based on assumptions and estimates:

N = r * Fs * Fp * Ne * Fl * Fi * Fc * L

"r" stands for the number of stars in a galaxy = 2*10^11 (An Estimate, although it could be a reasonable one)
"Fs" is the number of suitable stars (approx. 30% are the right size and spectral class or have planets with gravitationally heated moons) (An approximation is an estimate)
"Fp" is the number of suitable suns with planets (optimism put this as high as 90%!) (An Assumption)
"Ne" is the number of planets in a habitability zone ASSUMING liquid water is needed for life =0.7*r. (An Assumption)
Fl = The fraction of those Earth-like planets where life actually develops =0.2 (An Assumption - we only know of ONE Earth-like planet that has developed life. Such a limited sample is irrelevant)
Fi = The fraction of life sites where intelligence develops =0.5 (An Assumption, based on a single sample)
Fc = The fraction of communicative planets (those on which electromagnetic communications technology develops) = 100% (An Assumed Value, based on the guess that all available civilizations are at least as advanced as Earth's)
L = The "lifetime" of communicating civilizations = 0.1 achieve "permanence". (An Assumption; there is no evidence for any specific value).

Thus, the famous Drake Equation does not provide any direct evidence of a single extraterrestrial civilization.

You are confusing "possibility" with "actuality" or perhaps you have drawn your conclusion first and are flailing about to find justification for it. Try looking at the available evidence (if any) and then drawing a conclusion.

^^ Thank you for your support! ^^

BTW: That toon was from XKCD Comics at http://xkcd.com/

The nearest extrasolar planets are lightyears away from the Earth.

So you're suggesting that because of the distances its unlikely that if extraterrestrial civilizations exist, that it would take them far too long to reach Earth? Regarding what Fnord said, there is a difference between what is actual and what is possible BUT, what Im interested in is what is Likely. Extraterrestrial life is Highly likely. More and more extrasolar planets are being discovered all the time. Futhermore, it is also highly likely that there was life on Mars but that is is now completely extinct. The amino acid Glycine was detected in gas clouds around the center of the galaxy! Carbon is an extremely abundant element in the Cosmos and here on Earth, most Carbon is biogenic.

There just might be life on Titan, Saturns largest Moon. Titan in fact is the most similar planet to Earth in the entire solar system in the sense that its the ONLY other Terrestrial planet with both an atmosphere and a precipitation cycle. Carbon is very abundant cosmically and has the tendency to form stable large molecules through reactions which reduce entropy. A very good example of such a reaction is the Belousov-Zhabotinski reaction. I think the excitement and interest in Europa has more to do with science fiction than science fact .

Fnord we have no proof . I said that in my first post. Why get your panties in a bunch?

I'm saying there is a chance there is life out there and dont be closed minded . I can see this is going no where. You insult me , this is a debate not a life or death argument.

I guess you really stick by your beliefs. Thats a good thing, but dont put people down because of it.

I will not debate with someone who uses sarcasm to try and intimedate me into agreeing with them .

Mabie in another life.

Based on what you've said in this thread, I am very cynical that ANY evidence, no matter how solid or scientifically valid will convince you because if such evidence that Alien Spaceships have reached earth you will try to come up with some seemingly plausible explanation precluding anything extraterrestrial. Perhaps just the mere possibility of extraterrestrial life, and particularly extraterrestrial spacecraft does not fit your worldview. This is the troube with many self-professed "skeptics", they dont take the time to carefully analyze and review evidence NOR can they be bothered to investigate something for themselves.
You're more of a cynic than a skeptic when it comes to this issue and the fact is that extraterrestrial life, extraterrestrial intelligence, and extraterrestrial spacetravel fits PERFECTLY within the laws of science as we understand them now!

The possibility of extraterrestrial life is part of my view of the universe. Space travel is possible, but considering that it would take over four-hundred years to get to Earth from Alpha Centauri (27,629,539,253,962.967 miles away) at even 1% the speed of light (670,616,629.4 miles per hour x 1% = 6,706,166.294 mph), and that even the fastest man-made "spaceship" - the Ulysses probe - travelling at 27.4 miles per second (98,640 miles per hour), would take nearly 30,000 years to make the trip! It seems unlikely that anyone would survive such a trip. (Please check my math ... I would hate to be in error.)

If an extraterrestrial were to introduce himself to me, I might ask for proof of his extraordinary claim if he appeared to be an ordinary human being. If he (it?) looked somewhat non-human, but still human-like (a body, four appendages, and a head), then I would look for evidence of "Hollywood" make-up and prosthetics. If it looked completely non-human, I might observe it for signs of robotic behavior (remotely-controlled). I have been hoaxed before, and have participated in a few hoaxes myself; I have worked as a movie and TV production assistant in and around Hollywood; and I hold a Bachelor's Degree in Electrical Engineering, so I know what to look for. So, for example, it takes more than a blurry photo, a half-arsed account, and a few superficial scratches to convince me that someone was "abducted by space aliens."

I am skeptical that extraterrestrials have visited Earth. I am also cynical of any claims that they have. Of course, if the person making the extraordinary claim that "extraterrestrial aliens have visited Earth" also provides irrefutable evidence to support this claim, then I would have to change my opinions, now wouldn't I?

Until then, I will continue to challenge any such claimant to provide the irrefutable evidence needed to support their extraordinary claim. This evidence would have to be more than hearsay, urban legend, conspiracy theory, mis-interpretation of mathematical and scientific principles, mis-representation of natural phenomena, and a purely subjective interpretation of history and myth. I'm looking for material proof - an alien artifact, alien knowledge, or the aliens themselves!

It's just that simple: Be prepared to provide extraordinary evidence for your extraordinary claims -- extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, after all -- and leave both faith and fallacy to the religionists.

Amino acids are not terribly complex as molecules go. We've known for a long time that various processes can produce them.

At any rate, I agree with you that the existence of life elsewhere in the cosmos is highly probable. That is quite beside the point though. The point is that there is a dearth of evidence that they are spending their vacation time here on Earth. Lacking such evidence, everything we say is by definition pure speculation, and should be treated as such. My problem is that few seem to be willing to do so.

There are aliens on this planet. They are spiritual beings, able to change form at will. They live for centuries. They gain power by milking soul power from humans. In animist cultures, they bribe the humans to give them soul power by offering to look after them. Later, they get the upper hand and extort soul power from the humans at the threat of harm if they don't.

These aliens have formed religions around themselves, to establish a continual supply of soul power from the worship of their human peons. There are people who go in league with them, to get special favors or powers from them. These are witch doctors, shamans, psychics, witches, monks, holy men, sorcerers, santeras, etc.

Christianity is vastly different than all these so-called religions. We have authority to cast out or dis-empower these aliens and they know it. They have to submit. We can drive the aliens out of the earth, air, fire, water, the nether regions, portals, ley lines, animals, humans, idols, charmed objects, etc.

Um...er...ok.
I do not wish to derail the thread, but I'd love to hear why Christianity is so very different. Feel freel to PM me if you get bored enough to argue with a pedant.

Evidence, Please?


Evidence, Please?


Evidence, Please?


Well ... TimT does seem to be a religionist ... but I'm still curious about what kind of evidence (if any) he'll present to support his claims. I'm counting on either "It's in the Bible!" with an off-the-wall interpretation, or a circular fallacy like "The Bible is the Truth because God says so!" coupled with "God is real because the Bible says so!"

Stay tuned...

It's not that easy to diss me. I was once a scientific materialist like you.
Irrefutable evidence is impossible when it comes to historical events. The Legal/Historical method is used in those cases, not the scientific method. That requires the creating of a hypothesis and seeing if it best fits the evidence. Faith is required. The jury can all be accused of lying. The prosecution and defense can be accused of collusion against the plaintiff. The deep space astronomers could all be lying. The nuclear physicists could be backing the wrong hypothesis. I mean, give me irrefutable proof your father was not a closet gay.

The best evidence is statistical inference, if you can get it. The more incidents you use to make up your statistics, the more confidence you can have in the results. Confidence means "have faith in."

If this has not changed your mind as to what evidence is acceptable, then I have no more to say to you.