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Henriksson
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10 Mar 2009, 8:52 am

From Wall Street Journal:

Quote:
MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.


Igor Panarin
In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.


Image

What think you? I think Panarin is a bit too confident over the influence other countries will have on a disintegrated America, but I think he has a point. America is living on borrowed money, the economic collapse is inevitable. Frankly, things are starting to look brown to America, and mght be compared to how the moribound Ottoman Empire was at the end.


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MissConstrue
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10 Mar 2009, 9:29 am

Well we're already in debt to China not surprisingly....

Hmmm...Panarin does not dislike Americans but....

Quote:
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced.


Sounds fishy to me and even if a change were to occur it would take years and years. If countries were that easily influenced by not one but more countries then France wouldn't be France, England wouldn't be England, and Germany wouldn't be Germany...even when Rome invaded.


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Henriksson
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10 Mar 2009, 9:35 am

BTW, shouldn't Paranin be a bit concerned about his homeland as well? Alcohol abuse, crime, unstable political system...


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10 Mar 2009, 9:49 am

Henriksson wrote:
From Wall Street Journal:

Quote:
MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.


Igor Panarin
In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.


Image

What think you? I think Panarin is a bit too confident over the influence other countries will have on a disintegrated America, but I think he has a point. America is living on borrowed money, the economic collapse is inevitable. Frankly, things are starting to look brown to America, and mght be compared to how the moribound Ottoman Empire was at the end.


Other countries might get US land, but it would not get the people. US Citizens have guns, and I can tell you they will use them either on their captors or themselves before capture. It would be a blood battle for someone trying to take over Western Rocky Mountain States, as well as states like Texas. US Citizens would also poison the land too, render it useless.

If the USA goes under, it will not be with a whimper, but with a huge bang.



MissConstrue
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10 Mar 2009, 9:50 am

Sounds like Iraq..oh great! :roll:


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10 Mar 2009, 9:59 am

Henriksson wrote:

What think you? I think Panarin is a bit too confident over the influence other countries will have on a disintegrated America, but I think he has a point. America is living on borrowed money, the economic collapse is inevitable. Frankly, things are starting to look brown to America, and mght be compared to how the moribound Ottoman Empire was at the end.


The Roosky was projecting. He described what -actually- happened to the Soviet Union.

First of all there is no divisional strife in the U.S. that compares to what existed before the Civil War between the north and south.

If the Civil War (4 years long 620,000 killed, 1.5 million maimed) did not break up this nation, nothing will. We may very well be nuked to oblivion but the nation will not break up for internal reasons.

This Roosky has no feel for what America is like.

Unlike the moribund Ottoman Empire the U.S. is a very intellectually active place. Productivity in science (especially applied science) is higher than ever and we have extremely good theoretical people. The science/math culture in this country is in good shape. What is not in that good shape is the art/literature culture. It is mostly left wing and kind of faggy. People from this culture see the world through their own lavender tinted spectacles.

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10 Mar 2009, 10:02 am

Oh no! I wanted to go to Hawaii, it sounds beautiful, but I have sworn never to go to China, because they are likely to arrest and kill me for everything I've said about their evil dictatorship. Make sure Japan gets Hawaii if anyone has to! 8O

(I just realised they almost did in '41. I watched the movie of Pearl Harbor last weekend and all)


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10 Mar 2009, 10:04 am

I think I'd prefer Japan too. They're rich in their art and culture. :wink:


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10 Mar 2009, 10:18 am

MissConstrue wrote:
I think I'd prefer Japan too. They're rich in their art and culture. :wink:


A great place if you do not mind living in rooms the size of coffins.

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10 Mar 2009, 11:01 am

ruveyn wrote:
MissConstrue wrote:
I think I'd prefer Japan too. They're rich in their art and culture. :wink:


A great place if you do not mind living in rooms the size of coffins.

ruveyn

And if you don't mind the fact that immigrants, or anyone other than native ethnic Japanese, do not have full citizenship rights.


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ruveyn
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10 Mar 2009, 11:22 am

Orwell wrote:
ruveyn wrote:
MissConstrue wrote:
I think I'd prefer Japan too. They're rich in their art and culture. :wink:


A great place if you do not mind living in rooms the size of coffins.

ruveyn

And if you don't mind the fact that immigrants, or anyone other than native ethnic Japanese, do not have full citizenship rights.


Gi Jinn. Lower than dirt and slightly better than sh*t.

The Japs are the leading experts in xenophobia. The way they treat hereditary Koreans and Binrun is scandalous. Compared to the Japs, the American treatment of Negroes was the soul of kindness.

Japanese still keep a pedigree to this day to make sure they marry "pure bloods".

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10 Mar 2009, 11:23 am

This whole discussion appears quite nonsensical until we see just how bad things will get. At the moment even the experts don't know and even the experts didn't know or wouldn't say beforehand that they could see the mess approaching. The experts didn't foresee the collapse of the USSR either.



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10 Mar 2009, 11:28 am

Regarding the OPost: Seriously folks, the whole thing is STUPID. Whats the point in pontificating about someones retarded conspiracy theory? The United States is NOT going to disintegrate(in 2010 or ANY TIME SOON) and I'd even bet money on that. :wink:



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10 Mar 2009, 5:56 pm

LOOOOL part of America joining the European Union!! !???

they even don't want Turkey in, and Turkey is at least partly (and culturally) on the European continent!


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10 Mar 2009, 5:57 pm

i allready dunnit

Image

to my delight, the "Lakotah Republic" was declared soon after i finished this map, and is the "real life" equivalent to my "Black Hills Republic"

i made one for europe too, but the swede wouldnt like it :]



Last edited by ZEGH8578 on 10 Mar 2009, 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Henriksson
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10 Mar 2009, 6:02 pm

ZEGH8578 wrote:
i made one for europe too, but the swede wouldnt like it :]

"Norway" painted all over it, perhaps? :P


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