1.5C Threshold Breached

Page 3 of 4 [ 52 posts ] Go to page Previous 1, 2, 3, 4 Next

Previous topic | Next topic

kokopelli
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 27 Nov 2017
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,438
Location: amid the sunlight and the dust and the wind

23 May 2025, 9:21 pm

cyberdora wrote:

kokopelli wrote:

A great many so-called "climate scientists" are anything but climate scientists. I'm no expert on the subject and do not claim to be an expert on the subject.

Strange? you are stickler for the scientific method except when it comes to climate science?

I can't see that you are considering any evidence at all.

Look at the evidence.

It has been much warmer than today and not all that long ago. Mankind not only survived, it flourished and spread around the world.

The last interglacial period was warmer than today, arguably by 5 C. And it is not the only one warmer than today.

And recent research seems to indicate that CO2 definitely lags temperature. Warming causes CO2 to rise, not the other way around.

cyberdora
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 12 Jan 2025
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 2,089
Location: Australia

23 May 2025, 9:21 pm

kokopelli wrote:

That's a lie.

Initially, I was caught up in the global warming fervor like so many others. But then I started asking questions such as whether or not the Earth has ever been so warm. Imagine my surprise to find out that it was quite a bit warmer just a few thousand years ago. And it didn't kill of man-kind. Rather, it was an enormous boon to the human race.

My position is based on historical evidence, not on hope.

And this is likely to not kill all of mankind but even the most optimistic models predict food supplies and water being impacted in the long run. Water alone leads to war (Egypt/Ethiopia or India/China).

cyberdora
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 12 Jan 2025
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 2,089
Location: Australia

23 May 2025, 9:23 pm

kokopelli wrote:

It has been much warmer than today and not all that long ago. Mankind not only survived, it flourished and spread around the world.

The last interglacial period was warmer than today, arguably by 5 C. And it is not the only one warmer than today.

And recent research seems to indicate that CO2 definitely lags temperature. Warming causes CO2 to rise, not the other way around.

Yes mankind survived after fleeing to warmer parts of the world and returning to the northern hemisphere after the younger Dryas. I am not disagreeing the impact might not be as serious as models are predicting but the thresholds for going either way aren't well understood. Hence why worst case scenarios must be taken seriously.

kokopelli
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 27 Nov 2017
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,438
Location: amid the sunlight and the dust and the wind

23 May 2025, 9:25 pm

cyberdora wrote:

kokopelli wrote:

So include massive volcanic lava flows releasing incredible amounts of CO2 (vastly more than man can release) as a potential problem.

I mean I could pick hundreds of examples, do you want me to list them.
Climate change killed off civilisations in the Sahara (it used to be green) and the Indus Valley in what is India and Pakistan. Its also thought to be responsible for demise of many native cultures in south and north America.

The Sahara was green. That was when it was warmer than today. The Gobi Desert was forested. Northern Mexico was much greener. None of that is news.

It can also be argued that the cooling from the Little Ice Age played a part in the end of the Anasazi civilization, forcing them to move elsewhere, partially as the result that a cooler climate is, in general, a dryer climate.

And don't imagine just because a civilization moved that the climate somehow killed them off.

kokopelli
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 27 Nov 2017
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,438
Location: amid the sunlight and the dust and the wind

23 May 2025, 9:26 pm

cyberdora wrote:

kokopelli wrote:

In other words, you are trying to justify ignorant panic?

cyberdora
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 12 Jan 2025
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 2,089
Location: Australia

23 May 2025, 9:32 pm

kokopelli wrote:

In other words, you are trying to justify ignorant panic?

I kind of seeing responses on a spectrum,
Least worry - avoid building along the coastline and invest in desalination and alternative power
Worst case - start doomesday prepping

kokopelli
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 27 Nov 2017
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,438
Location: amid the sunlight and the dust and the wind

23 May 2025, 9:54 pm

cyberdora wrote:

kokopelli wrote:

In other words, you are trying to justify ignorant panic?

I kind of seeing responses on a spectrum,
Least worry - avoid building along the coastline and invest in desalination and alternative power
Worst case - start doomesday prepping

I suspect that the primary reason to avoid building along the coastline, at least in some places, is because of subsidence, often from taking out so much water, causing the land to sink. And, in some places, there would be concerns about tsunamis and about hurricanes.

Desalination might be useful, but hardly because of Global Warming. Other power sources might be useful -- we could certainly use more nuclear power.

Sea level rise from Global Warming would be about the least of those concerns.

And doomsday prepping? That has everything to do with fear of what others may do, not climate change.

cyberdora
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 12 Jan 2025
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 2,089
Location: Australia

24 May 2025, 3:35 am

I'm cautiously optimistic humanity will survive. But we might lose a few on the way.

Retrograde
Velociraptor

Joined: 18 May 2023
Gender: Male
Posts: 458

24 May 2025, 5:12 am

Tim_Tex wrote:

1.5C climate threshold has been breached

Yet the response from the MAGAs will either be:

a) "But muh giant pickup truck..."

or

b) "Climate is not changing. Dem fires in Commiefornia are Gawd's punishment for wokeness".

This seems to be more of a political than scientific issue.

Double Retired
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 31 Jul 2020
Age: 70
Gender: Male
Posts: 6,829
Location: U.S.A. (Mid-Atlantic)

24 May 2025, 12:54 pm

I'm not persuaded by observations that Earth's climate used to be much warmer in the past so what does it matter if it gets that warm again. It also matters how quickly the climate changes.
- With gradual change over a long period of time we should be OK.
- With sudden huge changes we're likely to be in big trouble. !

I'd rather be hit by a bullet that has been thrown than one that has been fired from a gun.

_________________
When diagnosed I bought champagne!
I finally knew why people were strange.

cyberdora
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 12 Jan 2025
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 2,089
Location: Australia

24 May 2025, 6:02 pm

Double Retired wrote:

^^^ that's about the gist of it...

Retrograde
Velociraptor

Joined: 18 May 2023
Gender: Male
Posts: 458

24 May 2025, 7:33 pm

Double Retired wrote:

Based on the OP the determining factor in that is which political party is dominant.

Double Retired
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 31 Jul 2020
Age: 70
Gender: Male
Posts: 6,829
Location: U.S.A. (Mid-Atlantic)

29 Jun 2025, 6:41 pm

"Over a third of people on sinking Tuvalu seek Australia's climate visas"

Quote:

More than one-third of the people in the tiny Pacific nation of Tuvalu, which scientists predict will be submerged by rising seas, have applied for a landmark climate visa to migrate to Australia, according to official figures.

Tuvalu’s ambassador to the United Nations, Tapugao Falefou, told Reuters on Sunday he was "startled by the huge number of people vying for this opportunity", and the small community was interested to learn who the first lot of climate migrants would be.

Tuvalu, one of the countries at greatest risk from climate change, which experts say is boosting sea levels, has a population of 11,000 on its nine atolls scattered across the Pacific between Australia and Hawaii.

Natural forces that have always caused climate change are still at work...MAN is a new factor pushing things toward heating up.

_________________
When diagnosed I bought champagne!
I finally knew why people were strange.

cyberdora
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 12 Jan 2025
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 2,089
Location: Australia

30 Jun 2025, 2:54 am

Double Retired wrote:

- With gradual change over a long period of time we should be OK.
- With sudden huge changes we're likely to be in big trouble.

One thing to keep in mind is the past cataclysms involved rapid changes leading to both mass extinctions of animals and population bottlenecks in humans. The last major one was 70,000 years ago when humans experienced a significant population bottleneck, with the global population potentially dropping to a few thousand individuals. This event, possibly triggered by a volcanic eruption and subsequent climate changes, led to a substantial reduction in genetic diversity within the human species.

Coincidentally this last bottleneck coincided with humans leaving Africa into Europe, the levant, Siberia and into Asia and South America/Pacific. It make sense, a environmental catastrophe pushed survivors to find new lands and the fossil record outside of Africa starts around then and really begins to builds steam.

kokopelli
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 27 Nov 2017
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,438
Location: amid the sunlight and the dust and the wind

30 Jun 2025, 3:08 am

cyberdora wrote:

Double Retired wrote:

- With gradual change over a long period of time we should be OK.
- With sudden huge changes we're likely to be in big trouble.

There were speculations about one 70,000 years ago, but from https://phys.org/news/2013-05-volcanic-winter-toba-super-eruption.html from 2013:

Quote:

New research from Oxford University casts doubt on the theory that the Mount Toba super-eruption, which took place at the Indonesian island of Sumatra 75,000 years ago, could have plunged the Earth into a volcanic winter leading to the near extinction of early humans.

...

Lead author Dr Christine Lane, Leverhulme Early Career Fellow at Oxford University's School of Archaeology, said: 'By tracing a microscopic layer of volcanic ash from the 75,000-year-old Toba super-eruption within sediments from Lake Malawi, we have been able to show that the largest volcanic eruption of the last two million years did not significantly alter the climate of East Africa. Our results therefore contest the theory some scholars have put forward suggesting that early modern human populations in East Africa were dramatically reduced to near extinction due to the climatic effects of this eruption. Our research implies this was not the case as there is no evidence of a "volcanic winter" in this region.

cyberdora
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 12 Jan 2025
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 2,089
Location: Australia

30 Jun 2025, 4:00 am

^^^ try something from the prestigious journal Nature and that's also published in 2021 (not 2013) from the prestigious Max Plank Institute.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00141-7
Using the Earth system model simulations show that stratospheric sulfur emissions from the Toba super-eruption 74,000 years ago caused severe stratospheric ozone loss through a radiation attenuation mechanism that only moderately depends on the emission magnitude. The Toba plume strongly inhibited oxygen photolysis, suppressing ozone formation in the tropics, where exceptionally depleted ozone conditions persisted for over a year. This effect, when combined with volcanic winter in the extra-tropics, can account for the impacts of super-eruptions on ecosystems and humanity.

The range of possible UV impacts is extensive, with environmental, ecological, health-hazardous and societal consequences43. In the short term, health risks include eye damage (photokeratitis and photoconjunctivitis) and erythema. Hindered vision (painful inflammatory reactions) and sunburns combined with the decay of precipitation and shortfall of food availability must have significantly worsened survival challenges. In the longer term, the increased carcinogenesis (cataract and skin cancer), immune system suppression, and general DNA damage44 likely added to a potential population decline.

Page 3 of 4 [ 52 posts ] Go to page Previous 1, 2, 3, 4 Next

Jump to:

1.5C Threshold Breached Post Reply New Topic

1.5C Threshold Breached