Pew: Romney Leads By 4 In Post-Debate Survey

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GoonSquad
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08 Oct 2012, 6:12 pm

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In the first national poll to be conducted entirely after the opening presidential debate, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney now leads President Barack Obama by 4 points.

The poll, conducted by Pew Research Center from Thursday through Sunday and released on Monday, shows Romney leading Obama among likely voters nationwide, 49 percent to 45 percent. That's a stark contrast from Pew's mid-September poll after both parties' conventions, which showed Obama up 8 points among likely voters.

The dramatic 12-point swing in Pew's poll from Obama to Romney is perhaps the strongest piece of evidence to date that the president has paid a political price for his listless performance in the Denver debate. But the complete suite of post-debate surveys from national pollsters is only beginning to emerge, and the early indications are of a less dramatic shift than Pew is showing.

Republican-leaning Rasmussen found Romney leading by 2 points in its Saturday release, which was based on findings from the tracking period of Oct. 3-5. But in Rasmussen Monday's poll, conducted entirely after the debate and partially following the release of Friday's encouraging jobs report, the two candidates were tied again. Gallup reported on Monday that Obama and Romney were tied in the three days immediately following the debate, after Obama led by 5 in the three days prior. But on Monday, Gallup's tracking -- which is based on a 7-day rolling average -- Obama again led by 5.

The PollTracker Average now shows Romney overtaking Obama to claim a nearly 3-point lead after the president led for the better portion of the last month.

...


Pew's survey shows voters overwhelmingly believe Romney won the debate: 66 percent said the Republican nominee performed better, compared with only 20 percent who said Obama did a better job. A separate poll released by Gallup on Monday showed that a whopping 72 percent of debate watchers declared Romney the winner, while only 20 percent said the same of Obama -- the largest margin of victory in the history of Gallup's post-debate polling.

Pew's poll also suggests that voters haven given Romney a second look following his stellar debate performance. The two candidates now run even on the question of who is the stronger leader, a category that Obama won by 13 points in Pew's September poll. Voters still view the president as the more honest and truthful candidate by a margin of 44 percent to 39 percent, but the president had a 14 point advantage on the same question a month ago. And Obama's 18-point lead with women shown in Pew's previous poll is also gone, with the two candidates now tied among female voters.

In another blow to the Obama campaign, whose central message has been to move the country forward and away from the old ideas put forth by Republicans, voters identify Romney as the candidate with new ideas, 47 percent to 40 percent. Moreover, Romney's favorability rating spiked 5 points to 50 percent in Monday's poll. Obama's favorability rating, long his most resilient attribute as a candidate, fell from 55 percent last month to 49 percent.

On a host of policy issues -- the budget deficit, the job situation, taxes, Medicare, health care and foreign policy -- Romney has either expanded his edge from last month, overtaken the president or narrowed Obama's edge.

Take Medicare, for example. The president was widely viewed as the better candidate to handle the nation's health care system for senior citizens in September, 51 percent to 38 percent; today, the president's advantage is only 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent. Obama's previous 15-point edge on foreign policy is now only a 4-point advantage. On taxes, Obama's 6-point lead from last month has turned into a 4-point advantage for Romney. And a majority of voters have doubts about Obama's ability to take on the paramount issue of the 2012 campaign: 54 percent said the president does not know how to turn around the economy, while 44 percent said he does.

Underlying all of these gains by Romney is a re-engaged Republican Party, whose rank-and-file endured a frustrating month following the national conventions. In Pew's September poll, 73 percent of Romney supporters said they had given "a lot of thought" to the upcoming election; that number swelled to 82 percent in Monday's release. The portion of Obama voters who said the same dipped slightly, from 69 percent in September to 67 percent in the latest poll. Additionally, Romney's supporters appear galvanized in the wake of his head-to-head performance with Obama. Sixty-seven percent of Romney's voters said they are "strongly" supporting the candidate, up from 56 percent a month ago. On this, Obama has neither dipped nor spiked: 68 percent of the president's voters said they are strongly supporting him, unchanged from last month.

Pew conducted its poll Oct. 4-7 using live phone interviews with 1,201 registered voters and 1,112 likely voters nationwide. The margin of error is 3.3 percentage points for registered voters and 3.4 percentage points for likely voters.


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Pretty terrible but not surprising. Get ready for some of that good austerity that's helped southern Europe so much! :roll:


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Inuyasha
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08 Oct 2012, 6:26 pm

Have any of the austerity measures actually been implimented yet. Right now we are just seeing people throw a tantrum when nothing has actually been cut.



GoonSquad
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08 Oct 2012, 6:42 pm

Inuyasha wrote:
Have any of the austerity measures actually been implimented yet. Right now we are just seeing people throw a tantrum when nothing has actually been cut.


How did I know you'd be first to comment?

Yes, plenty of austerity cuts have been implemented in Spain and Greece. That's why both countries have 20% + unemployment and their economies are in ruins. In Greece they are rioting because the government wants to bleed the poor even more.

Back to the topic, maybe a Romney presidency won't be so bad.

With Obama gone, most of the worst crypto racists will slither back under their rocks and the rest of the tea party will have to turn on the republicans.

If Romney does win, I predict a GOP/Tea Party split by 2016....

God help all the poor and old people who will pay hell until then. :?


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[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euqf_UKFtgY[/youtube]


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Inuyasha
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08 Oct 2012, 7:02 pm

Cutting spending is the only option Greece has, nobody is stupid enough to loan that country money anymore.



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08 Oct 2012, 7:50 pm

GoonSquad wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Have any of the austerity measures actually been implimented yet. Right now we are just seeing people throw a tantrum when nothing has actually been cut.


How did I know you'd be first to comment?

Yes, plenty of austerity cuts have been implemented in Spain and Greece. That's why both countries have 20% + unemployment and their economies are in ruins. In Greece they are rioting because the government wants to bleed the poor even more.

Back to the topic, maybe a Romney presidency won't be so bad.

With Obama gone, most of the worst crypto racists will slither back under their rocks and the rest of the tea party will have to turn on the republicans.

If Romney does win, I predict a GOP/Tea Party split by 2016....

God help all the poor and old people who will pay hell until then. :?


Our new national anthem...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euqf_UKFtgY[/youtube]


If Obama's re-election fails (which I fear, because of the progress this nation has made), I hope the Tea Party and Republicans split, and stay two parties. Then we will have a true third party system. If I run for office, I plan to run on a "no promises" platform.

There's a lot of crazy ideas I have, including making the presidency into a two person job and limiting the term to one four year term. Term limits for all.



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08 Oct 2012, 8:15 pm

If the GOP is in complete power and things get a lot worse the market fundies will just toe an even harder line claiming that the Republicans aren't cutting spending fast enough. The problem is market fundamentalism is unfalsifiable because there won't ever be a "pure free market" and there will always be some line to tow blaming the government or the "lazy poor" in one way or another. Hardcore free-marketers are just like hardcore communists in that when their ideology clearly isn't working they refuse to acknowledge it. Instead they just look for some excuse to purify their ideological stance and drum up the wrath of the rabble against some scapegoat. It's sort of like what Mao did in China.



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08 Oct 2012, 10:30 pm

The question is - does Romney's lead mean anything in the states with the most electoral votes? That's where the election will really be won or lost.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer



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08 Oct 2012, 11:02 pm

Agreed KG, surveys and polls do not win elections. Neither does the popular vote. It's the Electoral College that determines who becomes president.

"The game ain't over 'til it's over." -- Yogi Berra, American Major League Baseball catcher, outfielder, and manager.


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08 Oct 2012, 11:38 pm

anybody besides me think this one will be a replay of 2000?



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08 Oct 2012, 11:41 pm

auntblabby wrote:
anybody besides me think this one will be a replay of 2000?


I honest to God hope not.

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xenon13
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08 Oct 2012, 11:55 pm

Inuyasha wrote:
Have any of the austerity measures actually been implimented yet. Right now we are just seeing people throw a tantrum when nothing has actually been cut.


There's been no austerity in Europe? There's been nothing but that for the past few years.



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09 Oct 2012, 12:36 am

xenon13 wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Have any of the austerity measures actually been implimented yet. Right now we are just seeing people throw a tantrum when nothing has actually been cut.


There's been no austerity in Europe? There's been nothing but that for the past few years.


You mean they've been arguing about it for the last few years... Cutting spending is literally the only option Greece has at this point. Nobody is dumb enough to loan them any money without some stipulations. They could steal every last bit of wealth from the rich of their country and wouldn't put a dent in their fiscal mess.

I know demanding the rich pay for everything and blaming the rich polls well, but fact of the matter is it won't work and they would then end up wrecking the only positive parts of their economy.

Greece only has one option and that is to drastically cut spending and hope their economy improves to start trying to get their insane debt under control.



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09 Oct 2012, 9:40 am

Inuyasha wrote:
xenon13 wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Have any of the austerity measures actually been implimented yet. Right now we are just seeing people throw a tantrum when nothing has actually been cut.


There's been no austerity in Europe? There's been nothing but that for the past few years.


You mean they've been arguing about it for the last few years... Cutting spending is literally the only option Greece has at this point. Nobody is dumb enough to loan them any money without some stipulations. They could steal every last bit of wealth from the rich of their country and wouldn't put a dent in their fiscal mess.

I know demanding the rich pay for everything and blaming the rich polls well, but fact of the matter is it won't work and they would then end up wrecking the only positive parts of their economy.

Greece only has one option and that is to drastically cut spending and hope their economy improves to start trying to get their insane debt under control.


Oh please. :roll: This is a perfect example of outright factual error you refuse to acknowledge. The EU countries have all cut spending. It just hasn't been enough to make a dent in the debt because.... wait for it... due to mass unemployment they are losing tax revenue at the same time.

The EU needs to end as right now only the top economies are benefiting from it. The collapse of the Euro might send out new financial shock-wave to the rest of the world will have to deal with, but most intelligent investors are already preparing for the inevitable. Better to get it over with at this point.



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09 Oct 2012, 9:48 am

auntblabby wrote:
anybody besides me think this one will be a replay of 2000?

Does anyone else not think it already is?


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09 Oct 2012, 2:00 pm

I saw on CNN late last night that while the Pew poll has Romney ahead, the Gallup poll has Obama ahead by five points.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer



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09 Oct 2012, 2:56 pm

In modern history, I don't think any incumbent presidential candidate has ever folded so severely during a debate. Now, conservatives who hated Romney enough to not bother voting are fist-pumping and eager to fight. Moderate Republicans who were apathetic about the outcome now feel like their party has a viable presidential candidate. Low information voters were almost certainly converted to the Romney camp, swayed by his charisma and enthusiasm.

Once again I think the Democrats have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I'm not going to believe the more optimistic polls. I think the Pew Survey is probably accurate. The election is not over but Obama is now at a disadvantage, and he will likely end up with a similar electoral map to Kerry, hanging on to Ohio for dear life.

But there is a lesson here that I think we can learn. We were wondering whether Obama was really a conservative, based on the policies his administration seemed to be putting out, or whether he was just very conciliatory in the face of opposition in Congress. Now we have an answer: he is conciliatory as a human being can be. He cannot use the bully pulpit to save his life. Even if he is reelected he will end up folding to a Republican Congress on everything for another 4 years, and even if he were to get Congress back, through some act of God, he would end up folding to the filibuster and the conservative democrats in the Senate.