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Jacoby
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28 Aug 2014, 5:55 pm

Toy_Soldier wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Sigbold wrote:
Toy_Soldier wrote:
I am not sure what started Putin's interest in Ukraine,


Lets see :
  • Preventing further NATO-expansion,
  • preserving their warm water naval base on the Crimea.

And there probably some other factors.


Putin has also stated time after time that Ukraine is not a real country, but is just a province of Russia, and so wants it back in his country's control. There's also Putin's ambitions to rebuild the Russian empire.


There are many reasons a Russian head of state would be interested in the Ukraine, both legit, and illegit. I dont blame him for resisting NATO recruiting the Ukraine. An independent, but nonaligned Ukraine acting as a buffer between Moscow and NATO is the ideal. And I dont blame Obama/NATO for resisting Moscow trying to gobble up the Ukraine either. Its two sided. If I were an apologist for Putin I might say that Ukraine is to Russia what Ireland is to England ( once part of its empire), and that eastern Ukraine is like Northern Ireland. Putin could claim he was not trying to retake all of Ukraine back into a new Russian Empire, he just wants the part where the people WANT him to take over ( ie analogous to the mostly Protestant Unionist Ulster that stayed in the UK when the south bolted for independence).


I really doubt most Ukrainians, even in the eastern provinces (where ethnic Russians are at most 1/3rd) wanted to be part of Russia again. The revolution occurred because the President was taking them down that road. And when it started to get hot, the President fled to Russia.


That isn't the goal of these separatists, at least not initially. The goal was to create a federal system granting the east autonomy, now that they're been declared terrorists and have been ruthlessly bombed for months and months I'm not sure that is a viable solution.



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29 Aug 2014, 12:59 pm

Putin basically just dropped the gauntlet. The only thing the west can do now is put up or shut up.

Although Ukraine is not part of NATO I think NATO should send significant forces to east Ukraine at the request of the Ukraine gov. to show Russia s**t is about to hit the fan and to back off. Russia's economy cannot sustain a war but the EU can. The missing key ingredient is EU testicular fortitude however....something that has been quite lacking these past 50 years.



Jacoby
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29 Aug 2014, 1:35 pm

Dantac wrote:
Putin basically just dropped the gauntlet. The only thing the west can do now is put up or shut up.

Although Ukraine is not part of NATO I think NATO should send significant forces to east Ukraine at the request of the Ukraine gov. to show Russia sh** is about to hit the fan and to back off. Russia's economy cannot sustain a war but the EU can. The missing key ingredient is EU testicular fortitude however....something that has been quite lacking these past 50 years.


Put up or shut up? Are you volunteering? Do you have testicular fortitude? Are you prepared to sacrifice your life and risk nuclear confrontation because the west Ukrainians can't get along with east Ukrainians? It astounds me that people think this way, I don't even understand how people that know anything about this conflict can defend with the government in Kiev is doing. Do you believe the Kosovo is rightfully part of Serbia, if so how can you reconcile that with denying the right of self determination to the eastern Ukrainians? How can you find an violent coup that overthrew the democratically elected government to be legitimate but then pull the rug from under the east Ukrainians?



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29 Aug 2014, 2:33 pm

Both the Ukrainian government and the Russian-backed separatists have behaved with criminal irresponsibility. Russia has legitimate strategic interests in Ukraine, but Ukraine has an equally legitimate interest in not being a Russian buffer-state with a puppet government. I think a lot of the blame must be laid on the fled former President Yanukovich, who cancelled the scheduled referendum on EU membership. At this point, the national pride of both belligerents is on the line and neither side thinks that they can afford to back down.



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29 Aug 2014, 5:27 pm

staremaster wrote:
I think a lot of the blame must be laid on the fled former President Yanukovich, who cancelled the scheduled referendum on EU membership.


That's what I think as well. Putin either 'turned' or threatened Yanukovich into bringing Ukraine back under firm Russian oversight (and greased with cheap gas and 5 Billion in bail out money) or Yanukovich was a Putin creature all along.

Anyway it was not the will of the people and a popular revolt occurred centered on Maidan square - unlike the mostly Russian orchestrated 'separatist' movement in Crimea and the Eastern part of Ukraine.

It strikes me that central Squares often are the focal point of revolutions.



Jacoby
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29 Aug 2014, 7:00 pm

Russia was offering a better deal, they were going to give Ukraine $15 billion in loans and discount their gas while not interfering in their domestic affair.(The EU demanded the Tymoshenko be released from prison and the IMF bailout they were going to get was contingent on them imposing austerity) The EU should share a lot of the blame for what is going on in Ukraine over the last year since they essentially forced Yanukovych to choose either them or Russia, they said that association with the EU was "incompatible" with joining a customs union with Russia. The EU and US are not pure at heart, they have their own interests in Ukraine. You can call Yanukovych corrupt but so was Tymoshenko and Yushchenko, they're not any different or better. Ukraine is a divided country, it's artificial and the east has been facing off with the west their entire time as a independent country. It's best they go their separate ways, the EU/US/IMF/NATO aren't very interested in western Ukraine's wheat tho. All the productive parts of Ukraine are in the south and east.

[img][800:701]http://i57.tinypic.com/2ylw9om.jpg[/img]



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30 Aug 2014, 11:19 am

^^These maps make me think of Yugoslavia...



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30 Aug 2014, 1:32 pm

@Jacoby, I do agree that the EU and USA are guilty of their own actions and self interest. I mentioned earlier my greatest disappointment in Europe was the missed or bungled opportunity for east and west Europe along with the USA to establish a log term and friendly connection that would deepen in time.

And I blame the USA most for this failure, for failing to help more when Russia was financially struggling (along with the EU), and then later for the USA's unilateral aggressions/nation building projects in Afghanistan and Iraq. The only two limited operations I thought justified was the initial attempt to take Bin Laden at Tora Bora and the later successful Bin Laden Raid in Pakistan. The USA also weakened the UN severely by not working thru that organization. A weakening that I am not sure it will recover from, as the USA was the most important and financially supporting member.

So basically I am not comparing Russias actions against ours. But I still can judge them on their own actions and call it good or bad depending on what they do.

The only real way for eastern Ukraine to have fairly determined its real allegiance would have been by referendum, and not the hasty and highly suspect type the Russian backed seperatists have conducted at gunpoint. There have been peaceful decisions made in the past as in Alsace voting to join with France after the end of WWII and the Saar voting to join Germany.

But the powers that be will not let the Ukrainians truly decide, first by Yanokovych nixing the EU referendum and now Russia forcing the issue in eastern Ukraine. Russia has bankrolled and trained and equipped the separatist movement and what the eastern Ukrainians want was never going to be considered. The continued farce of Russian soldiers and equipment removing insignia and being formally detached from the Russian army and granted leave to voluntarily fight for the separatists only makes it more deceptive. The Chinese used that deception in the Korean War, and the USA also in small numbers in Vietnam via the CIA.

Coming back under Russian domination was about much more then the better financial deal. It was about the loss of freedom. Ukraine was playing it by riding the fence. Perhaps there was no other way in the short term, but if they wanted to keep their independence they would have had to chose and between east and west there is no contest in that respect, again.



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30 Aug 2014, 1:53 pm

Jacoby wrote:
Russia was offering a better deal, they were going to give Ukraine $15 billion in loans and discount their gas while not interfering in their domestic affair.(The EU demanded the Tymoshenko be released from prison and the IMF bailout they were going to get was contingent on them imposing austerity) The EU should share a lot of the blame for what is going on in Ukraine over the last year since they essentially forced Yanukovych to choose either them or Russia, they said that association with the EU was "incompatible" with joining a customs union with Russia. The EU and US are not pure at heart, they have their own interests in Ukraine. You can call Yanukovych corrupt but so was Tymoshenko and Yushchenko, they're not any different or better. Ukraine is a divided country, it's artificial and the east has been facing off with the west their entire time as a independent country. It's best they go their separate ways, the EU/US/IMF/NATO aren't very interested in western Ukraine's wheat tho. All the productive parts of Ukraine are in the south and east.

[img][800:701]http://i57.tinypic.com/2ylw9om.jpg[/img]


Those maps show a pretty clear divide, new international borders that seem to come naturally into place, and a potential for Russia to annex parts of the Ukraine going as far west as Odessa and perhaps even into Ukrainian Cisnistria (the part of Ukraine on the western bank of the Dniester River). Maybe Moldova would make a deal with Russia to give Transnistria (the breakaway region of Moldova on the eastern bank of the Dniester River that is aligned with Russia) over to Russia in exchange for Ukrainian Cisnistria, creating a unified Moldavian state.


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30 Aug 2014, 1:58 pm

Geographic borders should, perhaps, be drawn based on more fundamental conditions instead of being treated like rigid absolutes in themselves?



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30 Aug 2014, 2:01 pm

My speculation over Transnistria seems to have some support:

http://zik.ua/en/news/2014/08/20/transn ... ial_516134


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Jacoby
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30 Aug 2014, 2:47 pm

Toy_Soldier wrote:
@Jacoby, I do agree that the EU and USA are guilty of their own actions and self interest. I mentioned earlier my greatest disappointment in Europe was the missed or bungled opportunity for east and west Europe along with the USA to establish a log term and friendly connection that would deepen in time.

And I blame the USA most for this failure, for failing to help more when Russia was financially struggling (along with the EU), and then later for the USA's unilateral aggressions/nation building projects in Afghanistan and Iraq. The only two limited operations I thought justified was the initial attempt to take Bin Laden at Tora Bora and the later successful Bin Laden Raid in Pakistan. The USA also weakened the UN severely by not working thru that organization. A weakening that I am not sure it will recover from, as the USA was the most important and financially supporting member.

So basically I am not comparing Russias actions against ours. But I still can judge them on their own actions and call it good or bad depending on what they do.

The only real way for eastern Ukraine to have fairly determined its real allegiance would have been by referendum, and not the hasty and highly suspect type the Russian backed seperatists have conducted at gunpoint. There have been peaceful decisions made in the past as in Alsace voting to join with France after the end of WWII and the Saar voting to join Germany.

But the powers that be will not let the Ukrainians truly decide, first by Yanokovych nixing the EU referendum and now Russia forcing the issue in eastern Ukraine. Russia has bankrolled and trained and equipped the separatist movement and what the eastern Ukrainians want was never going to be considered. The continued farce of Russian soldiers and equipment removing insignia and being formally detached from the Russian army and granted leave to voluntarily fight for the separatists only makes it more deceptive. The Chinese used that deception in the Korean War, and the USA also in small numbers in Vietnam via the CIA.

Coming back under Russian domination was about much more then the better financial deal. It was about the loss of freedom. Ukraine was playing it by riding the fence. Perhaps there was no other way in the short term, but if they wanted to keep their independence they would have had to chose and between east and west there is no contest in that respect, again.


I think you are wrong to believe that eastern Ukraine ever had a choice or that the other half of the country would ever be willing to free them from their bond. The dilemma for nationalist anti-Russian western Ukraine is that it isn't a viable country on its own as they need the ports, industry, natural resources of eastern and southern Ukraine which are decidedly pro-Russian. The US and EU aren't interested in wheat fields and even those aren't as good as they are in the east, I assure they've spent a lot of money fostering this nationalist ant-Russian sentiment in the west of the country too just as they have all over the former sphere of influence of the Soviet Union.

It didn't start as insurrection in the east, it has slowly built itself up and at the beginning there were demands of federalization which Russia supported as well. I don't think Russia has any real interest in absorbing Donbass or any other parts of Ukraine, Russia's interest in more keeping NATO off its doorstep. They'd much rather have an independent non-aligned Ukraine than one dependent on them for survival. I'm not sure a federal solution is still viable considering the scope of this war now, it's a bad situation.



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30 Aug 2014, 3:02 pm

Transcarpathia is growing tired of the war in the east, they don't want to go and die for Kiev's war. I've heard that Poroshenko is going to start drafting university students too.



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31 Aug 2014, 11:31 am

Doesn't anyone find it odd that the news on MH17 has gone so quiet?



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31 Aug 2014, 12:20 pm

^^Yeah, it has largely vanished from mainstream news..



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31 Aug 2014, 1:19 pm

If it was the UA then the scary thing is that it was completely intentional and done with the thought of creating a false flag, the rebels do not have any aircraft.