Who will be U.S. President on 01/21/17 ?

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The US Prexie on 01/21/17 ?
Hillary Clinton 47%  47%  [ 21 ]
Donald Trump 44%  44%  [ 20 ]
Another (please say whom) 9%  9%  [ 4 ]
Total votes : 45

ASS-P
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23 Sep 2016, 9:23 pm

Calling horseflesh more than arguing , please --- Who do you think will win the American Presidential election this year ? I phrased it the above way to make way for a third , highly less likely , " other than Hillary or Trump " answer .
If that is your answer please say what it is , and say if you're an American voter or not , please .


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23 Sep 2016, 9:45 pm

I think it will be Hillary, though I am not really pleased with the Big 2, and will likely vote for Gary Johnson.

However, if for some reason Trump wins, I don't see any doomsday scenarios happening. He'll have too much opposition from the Dems and Never-Trump GOPers in Congress for them to happen.


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luan78zao
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23 Sep 2016, 10:08 pm

It'll be a shallow, corrupt, dishonest, unprincipled demagogue, driven by power lust, devoid of any concern for individual rights or the Constitution, and lacking in scruples or human decency.

We get the leaders we deserve.


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24 Sep 2016, 1:59 am

Trump.

In polling you can not look at individual polls but long term trends, with the exception of the big August drop he has been gaining support since he announced in June 2015.

The big unknown a couple of months ago was in which party would the divisions of the primaries linger. It is the Democrates. Trump has consolidated Republican support to the Romney level of 90% up from 77%. That was not good enough in 2012 against Obama but it should be against Hillary. Cruz has now endorsed Trump.

We call Trump by his last name with Hillary it is the informal first name. That should tell you something.

Hillary campaign is one public health incident such as missing a debate from imploding.

Biggest thing going for Hillary is the way the electoral college is set up this year. A repeat in reverse of 2000 is very possible with Trump winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college. Trump might have to win by at least 5 points.

I think the polls give Trump 5 point or so less support then he has because I think his voters are more suspicious and less willing to respond to surveys.

I have not taken into account one or more of the candidates dropping out or dying. It is complicated because it involves multiple scenarios. You have three distinct time periods 1. Before the election 2. Between the election and the electoral college vote 3. Between the electoral college vote and the inauguration . You can one candidate dropping out in one of the periods, both candidates dropping out in the same time period or one candidate dropping out in one period and one in another. This would be a fitting lowlight for campaign 2016.


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24 Sep 2016, 11:42 am

luan78zao wrote:
It'll be a shallow, corrupt, dishonest, unprincipled demagogue, driven by power lust, devoid of any concern for individual rights or the Constitution, and lacking in scruples or human decency.

We get the leaders we deserve.


That will be the case regardless of who wins.....


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24 Sep 2016, 3:30 pm

Assuming the election goes off as usual, without anything to throw it?

I give Trump the best odds, 50+%. The polls show him around the same level of support as Hillary, but if they're anything like British polls they will have a left wing bias, and will not accurately be reflecting the levels of support for the candidates, so I feel confident giving him a 5 point swing.

Though, of course, it also depends on where his support is. He could lose the electoral vote even if he wins the popular vote.



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24 Sep 2016, 4:19 pm

Magneto wrote:
Assuming the election goes off as usual, without anything to throw it?

I give Trump the best odds, 50+%. The polls show him around the same level of support as Hillary, but if they're anything like British polls they will have a left wing bias, and will not accurately be reflecting the levels of support for the candidates, so I feel confident giving him a 5 point swing.

Though, of course, it also depends on where his support is. He could lose the electoral vote even if he wins the popular vote.


If he gets more votes than the Wicked Witch of Wellesley he will deprive Her Hillaryship of any claim to a mandate.


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luan78zao
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24 Sep 2016, 4:41 pm

BaalChatzaf wrote:
luan78zao wrote:
It'll be a shallow, corrupt, dishonest, unprincipled demagogue, driven by power lust, devoid of any concern for individual rights or the Constitution, and lacking in scruples or human decency.

We get the leaders we deserve.


That will be the case regardless of who wins.....


Oh, you noticed that too?


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24 Sep 2016, 5:37 pm

BaalChatzaf wrote:
Magneto wrote:
Assuming the election goes off as usual, without anything to throw it?

I give Trump the best odds, 50+%. The polls show him around the same level of support as Hillary, but if they're anything like British polls they will have a left wing bias, and will not accurately be reflecting the levels of support for the candidates, so I feel confident giving him a 5 point swing.

Though, of course, it also depends on where his support is. He could lose the electoral vote even if he wins the popular vote.


If he gets more votes than the Wicked Witch of Wellesley he will deprive Her Hillaryship of any claim to a mandate.


Not really. Americans have had a very, very long time to switch to a popular election for the President. They know (er, hopefully) how the system works.



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25 Sep 2016, 5:22 pm

I can't stand The Rump and Hillary, but I'm voting for Hillary.


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25 Sep 2016, 8:23 pm

I can't see how Trump can win the electoral college, so I'm going with Clinton. If it was just a matter of a popular vote, then it might be more up in the air.


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25 Sep 2016, 9:36 pm

Magneto wrote:
Assuming the election goes off as usual, without anything to throw it?

I give Trump the best odds, 50+%. The polls show him around the same level of support as Hillary, but if they're anything like British polls they will have a left wing bias, and will not accurately be reflecting the levels of support for the candidates, so I feel confident giving him a 5 point swing.

Though, of course, it also depends on where his support is. He could lose the electoral vote even if he wins the popular vote.

Considering how Trump supporters risk being harassed with screams of racism and sexism etc. I would not be surprised especially considering there's little enthusiasm for Clinton with regard to rally size.



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26 Sep 2016, 1:53 am

Most likely Hillary. I think Trump has some tepid supporters who may not bother turning out at the polls, especially if Trump flounders in debates against Clinton which I expect him to. He also has some hardcore supporters, but I don't think he has enough of those people to win.

As for me, I don't really like either of them.



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26 Sep 2016, 8:15 am

I think Trump still at this point.

In the debate, likely, Clinton will try to be logical, and factual and bore most people.

While Trump is a showman, and he will make emotive statements that connect to people's emotions.

Tomorrow, everyone will be talking about the emotive statements Trump made, and few will remember what Clinton said.



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26 Sep 2016, 9:02 am

I've never believed Hillary was a viable strong candidate, I knew that the Democratic primary was rigged for her before any of the votes happened. Hillary as the Democrat is essentially the incumbent in the race and has strong sung the praises of Obama. I've believed in Trump since he shot to the top of the polls, it's a change year and I think Trump is a candidate uniquely fitted to the times and obviously much more intelligent and capable than the buffoon they play him up to be.



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26 Sep 2016, 9:11 am

Tim_Tex wrote:
...if for some reason Trump wins, I don't see any doomsday scenarios happening....

Yep. By living in Utah, I can fulfill my desire to avoid voting in federal elections (they are, too often, gamed; see the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004) while realizing that the state's electoral votes will go for the Republican candidates. I am more okay with that than any other alternative.


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