Hurricane Matthew

Post Reply New Topic

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

The eye of Hurricane Matthew was quite distinct when it made
landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 1100 UTC this morning,
but since that time the eye has become obscured on conventional
imagery. A reconnaissance plane measured SFMR winds of 118 kt
earlier today, but the entire area has not been sampled yet by the
plane. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt in
this advisory. Some slight weakening could occur today while Matthew
interacts with the high terrain of Cuba and Haiti, but the
environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4
status for the next 2 days. Some weakening is anticipated by the
end of the forecast period due to an increase of the wind shear.

Radar fixes from Cuba and satellite data indicate that Matthew is
moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 9 kt. The hurricane
is being steered by the flow around the western edge of a
subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge
westward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn
toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east
of Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward
allowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will
extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a
strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast
United States from days 2 through 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued
for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum,
very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of
the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

$$
Forecaster Avila

'The Situation ... Is Truly Catastrophic'; Hurricane Matthew Slams Into Haiti

Hurricane Matthew Prompts South Carolina To Evacuate 1 Million Florida and Georgia have also called states of emergency for a storm that has pounded the Caribbean.

Considering the fact that I live in the middle of South Carolina, I'm paying attention to this storm. --I went to the groecery store earlier today and it was packed, so apparently everybody else is paying attention to it as well.

They will start evacuating parts of the Florida coast tommorow. He moved through eastern Cuba tonight.

People have already evacuated coastal SC, that was the reason for the run on the Grocery stores yesterday, and I'm sure it will be more of the same today.

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been in the eye
of Matthew during the past several hours. Data from those planes
indicate that the hurricane is gradually recovering from the
passage over the mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti. The eye is
becoming better defined on satellite. Based on SFMR winds of
103 kt and a flight-level peak wind of 118 kt, the initial
intensity is 105 kt.

The environment between the Bahamas and Florida is favorable for
Matthew to restrengthen some during the next couple of days.
After that time, the shear is forecast to increase, resulting in
gradual weakening.

Fixes from the planes indicate that Matthew is moving toward the
northwest or 325 degrees at about 8 to 10 kt. The subtropical ridge
over the western Atlantic is amplifying as anticipated by the
global models. The flow pattern around this ridge should continue
to steer the hurricane toward the northwest during the next day or
two with no significant change in forward speed. After that time
the ridge will move east allowing Matthew to move northward very
near or over the Florida east coast and then near or to the east of
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast
period, models have changed significantly since yesterday.
Some track models keep the hurricane moving eastward across the
Atlantic while the GFS and the ECMWF reduce the hurricane's forward
speed with a southward turn. This change in these two valuable
models is reflected in the current NHC forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the hurricane warning areas in Cuba and the Bahamas.
Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend,
even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to
determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by
Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating
conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the
next several days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.8N 75.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 23.1N 76.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 24.8N 77.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 26.6N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 28.2N 80.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 32.5N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 32.0N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$


Forecaster Avila




Still a lot of uncertainty but it looks like the threat north of Virginia is mostly gone for now.

Not only is it hitting Florida, it may do so TWICE!! !
This is the big one we've been waiting for for 11 years!! !

Wild and crazy paths and loops are far from unprecedented with Hurricanes

The Washington Post's "Captial Weather Gang" blog is excellent.
Thrown for a loop: Matthew’s forecast track could rank among ‘weirdos’ in hurricane history

Hurricane Roxanne (1995) clearly takes the gold in that regard.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Roxanne

My prediction

A few weeks from now a second hurricane will form in the Atlantic.

It will follow roughly the same course as Matthew.

And it will hit South Florida right at Election Day!

It will royally screw up any kind of fair count of voting in Florida.

And since Florida is invariably the pivotal swing state that decides all modern national elections -that will screw up the election for the whole nation. And we will still not know who are next president is. And the agony of this particular election season will continue indefinitely.

At one time that was my dream, to live right right next to the ocean. I always told my friend who lived right off the coast how much I envied her scenic place. Didn't take long before the hurricane got so bad she said she was afraid for her life and had to move. Meanwhile I'm in tornado turf which doesn't exactly compensate given the hard hit Joplin got but sometimes you don't get to choose where you live.

I thought Ohio was the state that determined national elections.

Death toll in Haiti is 300.

From the 2:00 AM National Hurricane Center Advisory

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 79.7 West.
Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest is expected later today, and a turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east
coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some additional
weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected
to be a powerful category 3 hurricane as it moves near the coast of
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). During the past hour, a wind gust to 70 mph (113
km/h) was reported at Vero Beach, Florida, and a gust to 60 mph
occurred at Melbourne, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions should diminish over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida during the next several hours and will
spread northward within the warning area through today. Tropical
storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning
area along the Florida east coast today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected later today.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas on tonight and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft
Virginia Key to Boca Raton, Florida...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Boca Raton, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to
Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The northern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
The Atlantic coast of the United States from Central Florida to
eastern North Carolina...6 to 12 inches with isolated totals near
15 inches along the coasts

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the
east-central Florida coast tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

I don't have any interest in living in a coastal area, except for the Pacific Northwest or Alaska, precisely for this reason.

Plus Houston is probably the worst major city for a hurricane to hit--at least as bad as NYC--for the following reasons:

1. 5 million+ in the metro area
2. We're the birthplace of urban sprawl
3. Major economic and environmental impacts due to damage at petrochemical facilities
4. Logistical issues in evacuating such a large population, as seen with Hurricane Rita in 2005.

Also, Galveston is only an hour away, and was the site of the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history--the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. The death toll was between 6,000-12,000. There is an excellent documentary about it called "Isaac's Storm".

Plus we had powerful storms in 1915, 1961 (Carla), 1983 (Alicia), 2001 (Allison), the Rita evacuation (2005), and Ike (2008). Allison, while only a tropical storm, dumped 3' of rain, destroyed years of medical research, and pretty much shut the city down. In addition, there was a storm that went undetected due to radar blackout in 1943.

As for Tornado Alley, we are officially outside of that, but it's still a good idea to be cautious in that regard. One of the most destructive tornadoes in the U.S. was in Massachusetts.

Right now it is just east or east northeast of Daytona Beach. Roofs are bieng ripped off, large debris is blowing around the streets in that city. There have been recorded gusts of 100-110 MPH right on the coast. South Florida and the Gold Coast missed the brunt of the storm with some trees and power lines down.