Hurricane Irma
ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,455
Location: Long Island, New York
05 Sep 2017, 1:17 pm
Up to sustained winds at 185 MPH at 2PM. That is reaaaallllly bad.
Florida officials begin ordering evacuations as Hurricane Irma intensifies to a Category 5 storm
“This hurricane is far too powerful, poses far too great a threat for us to delay actions any further,” Gimenez said at a news briefing.
Gimenez said county residents with special needs will be evacuated on Wednesday morning, and he added that more evacuations may be ordered in Miami-Dade, the state’s most populous county
Officials in Monroe County — home of the Florida Keys, a popular tourist destination — said Tuesday they had issued a mandatory evacuation for tourists beginning on Wednesday morning at 7 a.m. A mandatory evacuation for residents was also issued for Wednesday evening at 7 p.m.
The county has about 80,000 residents and regularly draws throngs of visitors who travel to the Keys, a series of islands off of South Florida and connected to the rest of the state by U.S. 1.
In a statement, Monroe County officials said they urged residents and tourists to begin planning evacuations immediately, saying that “the earlier people leave the Keys the less traffic they are likely to encounter.” Authorities also said Monroe County schools would close Wednesday and remain shuttered until further notice, while hospitals there had begun planning to evacuate patients.
“We’re pros at this,” Monroe County administrator Roman Gastesi said in a telephone interview Tuesday. “Obviously this is a big one, and this could be the big one. But folks out here are really connected to the weather and so we know what to do.”
Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), who has declared a statewide emergency, wrote to President Trump on Tuesday asking him to declare a pre-landfall emergency in Florida, warning that Irma may require large-scale evacuations. He also asked for federal assistance in constructing emergency berms needed to protect areas across the state already battered last year by flooding caused by Hurricane Mathew, which raked the state with punishing rain and winds before making landfall in South Carolina.
The last “major” hurricane — registering as a Category 3 storm or stronger — to make landfall in Florida was Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. Wilma was also the last major hurricane to make landfall in the United States until Harvey struck Texas late last month.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,455
Location: Long Island, New York
05 Sep 2017, 4:03 pm
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
Irma continues to exhibit a remarkably impressive satellite
presentation. The intensity was increased to 160 kt on the 1800
UTC intermediate public advisory based on a couple of SFMR winds of
160 kt measured in the northeastern eyewall by the Air Force
aircraft just prior to that time. The minimum pressure measured
by a dropsonde in the eye was 926 mb. Irma becomes only the fifth
Atlantic basin hurricane with a peak wind speed of 160 kt or
higher. The others are Allen (1980), the Labor Day Hurricane
of 1935, Gilbert (1988), and Wilma (2005).
The eye of Irma is within range of the Meteo France radar in the
northeastern Caribbean, and recent images show the development of
an outer eyewall, likely the beginning stages of an eyewall
replacement. These changes in inner-core structure will likely
result in fluctuations in intensity during the next couple of days.
Otherwise, increasing upper-ocean heat content and a very favorable
upper-level pattern are expected to allow Irma to remain a category
4 or 5 hurricane during the next several days. Once again, the NHC
forecast shows limited interaction of the hurricane with the islands
of the Greater Antilles.
Fixes from the latest satellite and radar imagery suggest that Irma
is moving a little north of due west or 280/13 kt. A strong ridge
extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is expected to
steer Irma west-northwestward during the couple of days. A large
mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is forecast to
lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward and keep
Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday.
Over the weekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the
east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. The dynamical model
guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours, but there is
increasing spread thereafter. The HWRF, UKMET, and ECMWF show a
more southerly track and a sharper turn around day 5, while the GFS
is farther north and east late in the period. The NHC track is near
a consensus of these models and close to the HFIP corrected
consensus. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast
track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track
errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5,
respectively.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northeastern Leeward Islands tonight and tomorrow.
These hazards will spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico tomorrow. Preparations should be rushed to completion before
the arrival of tropical-storm force winds tomorrow morning in Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.
2. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Irma is likely to
bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from
Wednesday night through Friday.
3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.
4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week
and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to
increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.
However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these
impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 17.1N 59.8W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.6N 61.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 18.5N 64.6W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.5N 67.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 20.4N 70.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 21.6N 75.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 22.7N 79.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 24.4N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
06 Sep 2017, 3:12 am
It sounds pretty bad, but that one last year sounded bad too, and turned out to be nothing. My gut feeling is that this one will turn out to be no big deal too, unless it's not.
leejosepho
Veteran
Joined: 14 Sep 2009
Gender: Male
Posts: 9,011
Location: 200 miles south of Little Rock
06 Sep 2017, 6:58 am
I sometimes think weather reporters try to hold people's interest by "crying 'Wolf!'" or whatever to try to sensationalize weather that is otherwise mundane, but my own gut suggests this storm is too large to simply fade away before making landfall.
_________________
I began looking for someone like me when I was five ...
My search ended at 59 ... right here on WrongPlanet.
==================================
06 Sep 2017, 9:51 am
It INFURIATES me when the news inundates us with catastrophic weather predictions to keep people watching.
However, this is a very large, very tightly organized storm over very warm water (without getting up on the climate change stool to preach a sermon, it's September; this is the time of year when the Atlantic is about as warm as it gets).
Please take this one seriously. Panic and doomsday thoughts just waste your energy and make it more likely that you'll underreact to a serious threat in the future. But you don't have to panic to take this seriously.
Please secure anything in your general vicinity that could become a projectile in high winds. Includes really big things like swing sets and picnic tables. Saw a Category 3 storm blow a PortaPotty several blocks once.
Please cover windows and other apertures that present a serious risk of having s**t blown through them.
Please cover your basics-- food, water, some way to cook and go to the bathroom. I realize city water doesn't necessarily go down as soon as the power does like a well, but-- there ARE electric pumps in that system somewhere, guys.
Check your maps. If you are in an area that is prone to or vulnerable to storm surge, PLEASE LEAVE. Leaving sucks. Shelters suck. Not as much as being underwater.
Be safe.
We can argue about whose fault this is when the storm's over, OK??
_________________
"Alas, our dried voices when we whisper together are quiet and meaningless, as wind in dry grass, or rats' feet over broken glass in our dry cellar." --TS Eliot, "The Hollow Men"
ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,455
Location: Long Island, New York
06 Sep 2017, 9:59 am
People tend to remember the busted forecasts and the last storm which often was not "so bad". We had that "cry wolf" problem here in New York area when Irene proceeded Sandy. There were all sorts of horrific predictions as Irene was forecast to be the first direct hit of a hurricane in New York City since 1893. The whole city was shut down. Irene did make landfall at Coney Island but weaker than forecast as a tropical storm. Nothing much in the city and a bunch of trees and power lines down in the burbs. What people did not understand and or remember is the storm surge came within inches of flowing into the streets of Manhatten and upstate New York and New Hampshire and Vermont had historic flooding which destroyed towns. But since it did not happen in Manhatten where the media is located it was perceived as all hype. One year later Sandy comes along again with catastrophic predictions a lot of people were skeptical thinking it was all hype for ratings. Dozens who stayed behind were killed several hundred thousands of residences damaged or destroyed in the region by the storm surge, no power for up to two weeks, and gas shortages. The subways were flooded out and that is still causing problems.
The National Weather Service is a government agency so their workers are often viewed as lazy bums ripping off the hard working taxpayer. As anybody who has dealt with a government bureaucrat knows, there is a lot of truth to the stereotypes. The NWS employees sometimes post on weather boards. Those people are weather geeks, it is a "special interest" type thing for them, they love this stuff and care about getting it right. Thing is there are so many factors determines where a storm moves and if it intensifies or fizzles out. For example, the location of a "trough" in the Pacific ocean has an effect on where Irma will go.
this morning, and will be moving over portions of the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands shortly. A NOAA National Ocean Service
observing site on Barbuda measured sustained winds of 103 kt with a
gust to 135 kt earlier this morning before the anemometer failed.
The station also reported a minimum pressure of 916.1 mb. A minimum
pressure of 915.9 mb was reported on St. Barthelemy. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft that performed a single pass through the eye
this morning reported SFMR winds of 152 kt in the northwestern
eyewall around 12Z. Assuming there are stronger winds in the
northeastern eyewall, the initial intensity remains 160 kt for this
advisory. Another Air Force aircraft is currently entering the
storm.
1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico today.
2. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos, and portions of Haiti, with a hurricane watch in effect for
the central Bahamas and much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to some of these areas
tonight through Friday.
3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.
4. Direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and rainfall are possible
in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula beginning
later this week and this weekend. However, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges, it is too soon to specify the
location and ma
Irma will track over or very near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. The center of the storm will be close enough to those islands that full preparations are required, and extreme caution is necessary.
The northern parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti are likely to be hit hard, especially due to the interaction of the circulation with the tall mountains producing mudslides. But the current thinking is that the center of Irma will be far enough offshore that the mountains will not dramatically weaken the storm.
Tomorrow (Thursday) the winds will pick up in the Southeastern Bahamas. The models indicate that the worst of Irma’s winds will move through the Southeastern and Central Bahamas on Friday. Strong winds will be felt throughout the island chain.
Then Saturday things get murky. Irma’s forecast track is a bit slower than it was yesterday. The storm is still expected to slow down Saturday near or over the west-central Bahamas or Cuba and then ease into the Florida Straits well south or southeast of the Keys late in the day. When storms move slowly, the forecast immediately becomes more difficult. And, of course, we’re talking about the location of the eye 3 or 4 days in the future. All indications continue to be, however, that a very large and powerful hurricane will move over or near the Keys and head north on Sunday. There is no certainty and nobody knows if the core of the storm, where the strongest winds are, will track close to the east coast, west coast, or go right up the center of the peninsula, in which case it would affect both coasts.
There are, however, changes to the model forecasts this morning, not that they are conclusive.
Your government – specifically NOAA – is throwing all of their resources at making the best possible forecasts. They are collecting double the usual data over the U.S., detailed upper-air data around the storm, and essentially continuous data from inside the hurricane itself. All of this data is fed into the computer models, but still we are left with significant uncertainty due to the number of factors that can still affect the storm before it gets to Florida.
The consensus of the models that ran overnight that took advantage of the data fed into them last evening, has shifted east, so more possible tracks are slightly offshore of the east coast. Previously, they were spread across the state. The National Hurricane Center is always suspicious of large model shifts in just one run, because sometimes they shift back after more data is collected.
Therefore, the official NHC morning forecast brings Irma over the Florida Keys and north into the peninsula on Sunday. Irma is expected to be a large, powerful hurricane at that time, although some weakening from it’s incredible Category 5 self is anticipated. Remember that the average forecast error 5 days out is over 200 miles, so moves by the models from one side of the state to the other is within that range. We have to wait for more data and more model runs to see how the details change. And the difference between the east coast and west coast of Florida is a detail at this point.
Today is the day that governments across the southern part of Florida are going to have to make final hard decisions. If a reasonably imaginable forecast would produce life-threatening conditions – especially due to the ocean, Gulf, or Florida Bay rising up and inundating the land – they have to move people out of the way well in advance of that happening. That means ordering evacuations while the forecast is still uncertain.
A key part of the forecast challenge is even more difficult than predicting where the worst of the winds will track. That’s where the worst storm surge will occur. The height of the water rise at any one place is dependent on the angle the storm is moving, the strength of the wind, the length of time the wind blows from the same direction, and other factors. Since the storm surge is the deadliest threat from the hurricane, it’s critical that people are out of areas where the water may inundate neighborhoods, not to mention evacuation routes. This is the most difficult aspect of preparing a community for a hurricane.
The west coast of Florida – including the Ft. Myers/Cape Coral/Naples area and Tampa Bay – are spectacularly vulnerable to storm surge. Much more so than the east coast, which still has many threatened areas. If the storm looks like it could go up the west coast, evacuations are going to be required there, which will create an epic movement of people through the State of Florida. If this happens, and you are in an evacuated area, do not dawdle. Do not even think about dawdling. Immediate action will be required.
Every day that goes by in the ramp up to a hurricane gets more difficult because people get more frantic, stores run out of supplies, and the traffic gets worse. This storm presents an elevated level of difficulties because it may affect the entire peninsula with dangerous weather. The means that early preparation is more crucial than normal, and it’s always a good idea.
The shift east in the models forecasts may be temporary or not so all the more reason for everyone from the Carolinas to New Orleans not to let your guard down.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 06 Sep 2017, 10:35 am, edited 5 times in total.
06 Sep 2017, 10:08 am
That's where most of my energy went yesterday-- trying to talk people into getting OUT of Cape Coral.
It's really, really hard to predict the regular weather with more than very general accuracy. Major storms are even harder.
But please-- if you're low-lying and close to the water (I don't mean "ocean view" close, I mean "it's not a big deal to drive there" close), please go somewhere else if it's in any way possible.
It's not that hard to go home again if Irma turns out to be someone else's problem.
It IS that hard to deal with storm surge.
_________________
"Alas, our dried voices when we whisper together are quiet and meaningless, as wind in dry grass, or rats' feet over broken glass in our dry cellar." --TS Eliot, "The Hollow Men"
leejosepho
Veteran
Joined: 14 Sep 2009
Gender: Male
Posts: 9,011
Location: 200 miles south of Little Rock
06 Sep 2017, 11:05 am
Please take this one seriously. Panic and doomsday thoughts just waste your energy and make it more likely that you'll underreact to a serious threat in the future. But you don't have to panic to take this seriously...
Exactly. Panic can be optional but wisdom and prudence to make it so are not.
_________________
I began looking for someone like me when I was five ...
My search ended at 59 ... right here on WrongPlanet.
==================================
ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,455
Location: Long Island, New York
06 Sep 2017, 4:47 pm
PM reported total destruction in #Barbuda. Almost 100% of homes totally destroyed #damaged.Vehicles destroyed. One fatality.#Irma
Deaths reported as Hurricane Irma batters northern Caribbean islands
"Barbuda is literally rubble," Prime Minister Gaston Browne of Antigua and Barbuda told an interviewer with ABS TV/Radio Antigua.
"The entire housing stock was damaged," Browne said after visiting the island. "It is just a total devastation."
About 1,800 people live on Barbuda, Browne said, adding that there currently is no water or phone service for residents. He said one fatality, an infant, had been confirmed.
Charles Fernandez, minister of foreign affairs and international trade for Antigua and Barbuda, told ABS that destruction on Barbuda was "upwards of 90%."
At least two people died and two others were seriously injured on St. Barts and St. Martin, said French Overseas Affairs Minister Annick Girardin. The islands are French overseas collectivities.
Irma destroyed government buildings, tore roofs from houses and left northern Caribbean islands without power or communications.
French Interior Minister Gérard Collomb said some of the strongest buildings on the island of 75,000 people had been destroyed, boding ill for weaker structures on St. Martin.
"In terms of material damage, the four strongest buildings on the island of St. Martin have been destroyed," which meant that weaker structures likely had been damaged or destroyed, he told reporters.
Broward County on Florida's gold coast is ordering the evacuation of everybody east of US 1(Federal Highway). Georgia governor has declared a state of emergency.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
06 Sep 2017, 10:46 pm
This fat bastard is being unintentionally funny again.
Damn! Rush has a squeaky voice! He sounds like his nose is plugged! 
_________________
Synthetic carbo-polymers got em through man. They got em through mouse. They got through, and we're gonna get out.
-Roostre
READ THIS -> https://represent.us/
07 Sep 2017, 3:04 am
I sometimes think weather reporters try to hold people's interest by "crying 'Wolf!'" or whatever to try to sensationalize weather that is otherwise mundane, but my own gut suggests this storm is too large to simply fade away before making landfall.
It's not going to fade away, but it's also not the most powerful hurricane to ever come out of the Atlantic, as some are saying. The Labor Day Hurricane had the same wind speed of 185 mph when it hit Florida. There is no evidence that this hurricane will be anywhere near that speed when it makes landfall with Florida.
It will be a typical Category 5 hurricane. Bad, but not the end of the world.
ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,455
Location: Long Island, New York
07 Sep 2017, 3:58 am
Damn! Rush has a squeaky voice! He sounds like his nose is plugged!
Harvey was not an uncommonly intense storm. A number of catogory 4's have hit Texas. The problem was it stalled. The 52 inches of rain broke the record set of 48 inches in Medina, Texas. But Medina is not Houston or New Orleans so they have been forgotten.
I read a bunch of blogs by meterologists and a bunch of them are skeptical that human produced carbon emissions is causing a world changing event.
Rush is half right and half wrong. As mentioned there is overhype. There is no need to send three reporters outside to tell you it is a hot day in July. The reason for the overhype is not to convince people human caused carbon emissions is going to end the world as we know it, it is all about ratings, nothing more, nothing les.
It will be a typical Category 5 hurricane. Bad, but not the end of the world.
The evidence that it will be that speed or more if it hits Florida is that in order to get to Florida it has to pass over water with tempretures in the upper 80's. It gained and maintained this strength through waters with temps the mid 80's
It is not the end of the world but it is the end of life as they knew it for a long time for anybody that takes a direct hit. There is nothing typical about a catagory 5 hurricane. They are uncommon and often do not hit populated areas.
Category 5 Hurricane Andrew 1992 South Florida
Hurricane Irma dealt a glancing blow to Puerto Rico 2/3rds of the commonwealth is without power.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
07 Sep 2017, 5:55 am
It will be a typical Category 5 hurricane. Bad, but not the end of the world.
The evidence that it will be that speed or more if it hits Florida is that in order to get to Florida it has to pass over water with tempretures in the upper 80's. It gained and maintained this strength through waters with temps the mid 80's
It is not the end of the world but it is the end of life as they knew it for a long time for anybody that takes a direct hit. There is nothing typical about a catagory 5 hurricane. They are uncommon and often do not hit populated areas.
Category 5 Hurricane Andrew 1992 South Florida
Hurricane Irma dealt a glancing blow to Puerto Rico 2/3rds of the commonwealth is without power.
It absolutely will not be that speed or more. That's not the way hurricanes work. They slow down as soon as they get to land. It has already slowed down to 180 mph. Which means it is no longer the most powerful hurricane ever in the Atlantic. So there is no longer any worry about the most powerful hurricane ever hitting Florida. That's not going to happen. Because it's already slowed down.
The models I am seeing show it impacting Florida at category 4 strength, and then rapidly decreasing to category 2 strength. A category 4 hurricane hitting Florida is not remarkable. But the media doesn't want to tell you that.
Hurricane Irma Tracker
ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,455
Location: Long Island, New York
07 Sep 2017, 8:09 am
It will be a typical Category 5 hurricane. Bad, but not the end of the world.
The evidence that it will be that speed or more if it hits Florida is that in order to get to Florida it has to pass over water with tempretures in the upper 80's. It gained and maintained this strength through waters with temps the mid 80's
It is not the end of the world but it is the end of life as they knew it for a long time for anybody that takes a direct hit. There is nothing typical about a catagory 5 hurricane. They are uncommon and often do not hit populated areas.
Category 5 Hurricane Andrew 1992 South Florida
Hurricane Irma dealt a glancing blow to Puerto Rico 2/3rds of the commonwealth is without power.
It absolutely will not be that speed or more. That's not the way hurricanes work. They slow down as soon as they get to land. It has already slowed down to 180 mph. Which means it is no longer the most powerful hurricane ever in the Atlantic. So there is no longer any worry about the most powerful hurricane ever hitting Florida. That's not going to happen. Because it's already slowed down.
The models I am seeing show it impacting Florida at category 4 strength, and then rapidly decreasing to category 2 strength. A category 4 hurricane hitting Florida is not remarkable. But the media doesn't want to tell you that.
Hurricane Irma Tracker
I am not saying there is no evidence it will weaken. It is path and other factor dependent. If it interacts with more land it will weaken, if it runs into another system that "shears" it, it will weaken it. You asked for evidence it will maintain it's strenghth I gave it to you, the storm is yet to move over the warmest water it is going to. Sans other atmospheric factors hurricanes in Florida weaken more slowly due all the canals and the everglades.
A cat 4 does hit the state every once in awhile. The last one was Charlie in 2004. Like Charlie, most of them hit lesser populated areas, this one is threating populated areas. Irma might stay offshore not hit the state at all then we will hear endless fake news and overhype claims. Irma may go through the entire gold coast if it comes in from the south. Andrew was straight west to east and like Charlie it was a small storm so the area that was truly decimated was small. Irma is not small.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
07 Sep 2017, 8:33 am
It will be a typical Category 5 hurricane. Bad, but not the end of the world.
The evidence that it will be that speed or more if it hits Florida is that in order to get to Florida it has to pass over water with tempretures in the upper 80's. It gained and maintained this strength through waters with temps the mid 80's
It is not the end of the world but it is the end of life as they knew it for a long time for anybody that takes a direct hit. There is nothing typical about a catagory 5 hurricane. They are uncommon and often do not hit populated areas.
Category 5 Hurricane Andrew 1992 South Florida
Hurricane Irma dealt a glancing blow to Puerto Rico 2/3rds of the commonwealth is without power.
It absolutely will not be that speed or more. That's not the way hurricanes work. They slow down as soon as they get to land. It has already slowed down to 180 mph. Which means it is no longer the most powerful hurricane ever in the Atlantic. So there is no longer any worry about the most powerful hurricane ever hitting Florida. That's not going to happen. Because it's already slowed down.
The models I am seeing show it impacting Florida at category 4 strength, and then rapidly decreasing to category 2 strength. A category 4 hurricane hitting Florida is not remarkable. But the media doesn't want to tell you that.
Hurricane Irma Tracker
The problem is intensity forecasting is even more difficult than track forecasting when it comes to tropical cyclones. They don't know for sure it will weaken as much as forecast.
Some slight weakening is expected currently as the outer reaches of the storm are being disrupted by mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. The trouble is re-strengthening is still possible if the storm stays clear of Cuba. South Florida is flat and mostly covered with swamp. The landmass alone is unlikely to cause significant weakening. What could cause weakening is an increase in the environmental wind shear from the stalled out frontal boundary to its north. Unfortunately storms with a very large eye and "annular" characteristics can be unexpectedly resilient to shear. Also, conditions are only expected to become less favorable at the very last moment as the storm hooks north.
With all that said, there is no guarantee this storm won't effect the US with Category 5 strength winds. 185 mph is unlikely, but low end category 5 or high end category 4 landfall cannot be ruled out.
