Hurricane Chris threat to Newfoundland

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Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the
second hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology
by more than six weeks.

Chris now a hurricane. It will continue to gradually accelerate northeastward over the next couple of days passing well south of Nova Scotia and then is expected to slowly weaken as it tracks near the Avalon Peninsula as a post-tropical storm later Thursday night or early Friday morning.


1. Summary of basic information at 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 34.0 North 71.9 West.

About 360 km east-southeast of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 140 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Northeast at 17 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 980 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

At this time the most likely land areas to receive direct impacts will be southeastern Newfoundland where Chris could make landfall as a post-tropical storm later Thursday night or early Friday morning. Based on the current track, these areas could be impacted with heavy rain, strong winds, and heavy waves with storm surge along parts of the coast. The Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia could receive some ocean swells and may possibly be brushed from some outer rainbands from Chris as it passes by to the south of that province. Details will become more clear once the system moves into Canadian waters and its forecast of track and intensity can be made with more confidence.

a. Wind.

The most likely area for strongest winds from Chris will be over the Avalon Peninsula. Based on current track and intensity the likely range of maximum winds for these areas will be in the 80 km/h to 100 km/h range. More details will become available once the system's track and intensity become more certain.

b. Rainfall.

The greatest potential for heavy rainfall associated with Chris will be over southeastern half of Newfoundland and possibly over easternmost areas of Nova Scotia. If the current forecast track holds, amounts in excess of 50 millimetres are possible with even higher amounts possible for parts of Newfoundland. Rainfall warnings may be required for some areas.

c. Surge and waves.

High waves, pounding surf and storm surge will be a consideration for the southern coastlines of the Avalon Peninsula. Swells along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia could reach 2 to 4 metres. For southern Newfoundland, of 4 to 6 metres are possible with potentially up to 8 metres possible for parts of the Avalon Peninsula based on the current forecast track.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Storm and gale-force winds will develop over portions of the offshore waters of the Maritimes on Thursday and over southern Newfoundland waters Thursday night into Friday. Hurricane-force winds are possible for portions of the Scotian slope waters south of Nova Scotia on Thursday. Significant wave heights could reach near 10 metres over offshore waters near the track of the storm as it tracks through the Canadian marine district.

1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 37.0 North 66.8 West.

About 550 km north-northwest of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 155 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Northeast at 37 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 974 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The Newfoundland and Labrador Weather Office has issued rainfall and wind warnings for parts of southeastern half of Newfoundland.

Chris is expected to track across the southern Avalon Peninsula Thursday evening as a post-tropical storm. It will bring heavy rain, strong and gusty winds, heavy pounding surf and storm surge along southern facing coastlines of southeastern Newfoundland.

Nova Scotia should be spared any direct impacts from Chris, other than ocean swells along the Atlantic coast.

a. Wind.

A wind warning has been issued for the southeastern half of the Avalon Peninsula expected to be just south of Chris' track. This region could see southwesterly wind gusts of 100 km/h or more Thursday evening as Chris passes. Further to the north and west strong and gusty easterly winds are likely but should remain below warning criteria.

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings are in effect for most of southeastern Newfoundland where up to 80 millimetres of rain is expected from Chris. Rain will likely begin over these areas by noon Thursday well ahead of Chris but will become heavier later in the day as the centre of the storm makes its closest approach to the island. Rain should taper off quickly late in the evening as Chris speeds away into the North Atlantic.

There is still a chance some rain could brush easternmost parts of Cape Breton Island as Chris passes by, but the likelihood for a heavy rainfall there is very low.

c. Surge and waves.

High waves, pounding surf and storm surge will be a consideration for parts of southern Newfoundland Thursday night. Over the southern Avalon Peninsula, swells of 6 to 8 metres are possible nearest to where Chris makes landfall, giving elevated water levels and heavy pounding surf. Elsewhere, other southern-facing coastlines of Newfoundland could see 3 to 5 metres of swells Thursday night, where as the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia could reach 2 to 3 metres later on Thursday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

In general the strongest winds from Chris will be just south of its track as it moves through Atlantic Canadian waters. For Maritimes waters, Hurricane Force wind warnings are in effect for East Scotian Slope - southeastern half, Banquereau - southeastern half, and Laurentian Fan - northwestern half. Storm warnings are in effect for West Scotian Slope - southeastern half, Sable - eastern half, East Scotian Slope - northwestern half, Banquereau - northwestern half, and Laurentian Fan - southeastern half. Gale Warnings are in effect for Georges Bank - southern half, West Scotian Slope - northwestern half, Eastern Shore, Sable - western half, and Fourchu.

For Newfoundland waters, Storm warnings are in effect for East Coast - Cape St. Francis and South, Northern Grand Banks, and Southwestern Grand Banks. Gale Warnings are in effect for Southwest Coast, South Coast and Southeastern Grand Banks.

Significant wave heights could reach near 10 metres over offshore waters near the track of Chris as it tracks through the Canadian marine district.

Forecaster(s): Borgel

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.