Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Covid-19 vaccine no ‘walk in the park,’ CDC committee told

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths



We're now seeing over 2000 recorded deaths a day again in the US and climbing, something we haven't seen since May. This is going to be an awful winter for a lot of families.

FDA authorizes new Covid-19 antibody test that quantifies specific levels of antibodies

Level of Infection in the U.S.

The spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. may be worse than was previously known. There may have been as many as 53 million coronavirus cases in the U.S. by the end of September, according to a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate. That would be nearly eight times as many cases as had been reported by that time. The CDC estimated that only about 45 million of the 53 million infected people may have been sick from the virus, and only 2.4 million were hospitalized. Health officials have warned that people may carry and spread the coronavirus while showing only minor symptoms or even no symptoms at all.

Source: Coronavirus cases in US may be 8 times higher than previously reported, CDC warns

It really means that COVID-19 is endemic in the U.S. and most likely a great amount of the spread is due to Asymptomatic Carriers.

Long Term Effects

COVID-19 is an unpredictable disease that affects the human body in many different ways. Though it was earlier thought to be a respiratory ailment, as time went by, scientists found that the viral disease also leaves its impact on the brain, liver, kidney and other organs of the body. Even the skin of a patient shows manifestation of this deadly contagion. It can cause kidney damage, delirium and even multiple organ failure and ultimately death in severe cases. Some studies have said that this disease may cause irreparable damage to the lungs of patients infected with the virus. Even asymptomatic people are not immune to the effects. But now a new study says that there may be hope of recovery from lung tissue damage for these patients.

Researchers from Radboud University in the Netherlands have revealed that lung tissue of patients who suffered severely from COVID-19 shows good recovery in three months in most cases. The study is published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases. After three months, the researchers took stock, which revealed that the patients’ lung tissue is recovering well. Residual damage in the lung tissue was generally limited and is most often seen in patients who were treated in the ICU. It is encouraging to see that lung after COVID-19 infections exhibit this level of recovery.

Source: Most patients see good recovery of damaged lung tissue in 3 months after COVID-19 infection

Minimizing Aerosol Spread in Buildings

Winter is almost upon us and with it comes the second wave. So how are we going to deal with it? Are we going to the Open Air School philosophy?



Controlling the spread of aerosols in modern society is a function of VENTILATION. So how can you ensure a building is adequately ventilated?

If one accepts that this is an engineering issue, then one can think of other engineering tools that might help solve the problem. Engineer Shelly Miller wrote in The Conversation that it is difficult to measure the amount of virus that is in the air, or if there is enough fresh air, but measuring CO2 levels is a good proxy.

"Since the coronavirus is most often spread by breathing, coughing or talking, you can use CO2 levels to see if the room is filling up with potentially infectious exhalations. The CO2 level lets you estimate if enough fresh outside air is getting in."

CO2 meters are cheap, and they are being used as the "canary in the coal mine" to determine if there is enough fresh air to dilute the virus. Zhe Peng and Jose Jimenez came to the same conclusion in a study, "Exhaled CO2 as COVID-19 Infection Risk Proxy for Different Indoor Environments and Activities," noting that infected people exhale both CO2 and the virus, so if CO2 levels can be reduced by increased ventilation, the virus levels should be as well.

This approach is already being done in schools.

Source: Doctors and Engineers Speak the Same Language on COVID-19 Transmission

Face Mask Design

One of the things that makes N95s such a good mask is the layer of non-woven polypropylene material used to construct it. It is fine enough to stop viruses from passing through the material including the coronavirus.

In searching face mask material yesterday I came across another interesting material. It is called Halyard Health H600. The material is normally used as sequential sterilization wraps. The material is also made out of non-woven polypropylene.

My wife continues to make face mask that she donates to the community. We have been using fusible interfacing in the middle layer of mask construction. But this material is generally made out of polyester. The interfacing does control flow rates. Otherwise the cloth mask would not pass the candle test. But I am thinking now is about time to move up to Halyard H600.

Infection Period

Nearly a year into the pandemic, can we begin to make some definitive statements about the transmission of COVID-19 between individuals, based on a patient’s symptoms or testing? A meta-analysis provides some answers.

The researchers performed a meta-analysis of studies to try and narrow the range of concerns. To give you a sense of the explosion of information and studies, their searches identified 1486 papers, which they winnowed down to 78, the majority from China. They considered adults and children, along with a variety of timeframes. Apply grains of salt as you may feel necessary.

* COVID-19 RNA hung around for about 17 days in general. Shedding of RNA could go on for 83 days in the upper respiratory tracts (nose and throat) and 60 days in the lower respiratory tract (associated with sputum). It could be found for up to 60 days in the blood and 4 months in the stool.
* Shedding duration increased with age but not gender in respiratory samples.
* Shedding, in general, was longer in those severely affected, but not always.

Bottom line, if you have had direct contact with an individual positive for COVID-19, your period of risk transmission is from a day before they became symptomatic until a week later. More importantly, those with a positive PCR are not likely to remain transmitters after 9 days; that should be sufficient self-isolation.

Source: COVID-19, Viral Load And Shedding: An Update

Effect of Isolation on Society

More people died of suicide in Japan in one month than the entire coronavirus pandemic

Japan is struggling with a mental health crisis as the coronavirus pandemic rages on, with more people dying in one month from suicide than from COVID-19 all year long. The National Police Agency said suicides surged to 2,153 in October alone, with more than 17,000 people taking their own lives this year to date, CBS reported. By comparison, fewer than 2,000 people in the country have died from COVID-19 in 2020. Experts say the pandemic has exacerbated mental health issues due to prolonged lockdowns, isolation from family members, unemployment and other financial concerns, and a lack of school structure.

Pfizer and BioNTech Conclude Phase 3 Study of COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, Meeting All Primary Efficacy Endpoints

For Pfizer vaccine:
* Primary efficacy analysis demonstrates BNT162b2 to be 95% effective against COVID-19 beginning 28 days after the first dose;170 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were evaluated, with 162 observed in the placebo group versus 8 in the vaccine group
* Efficacy was consistent across age, gender, race and ethnicity demographics; observed efficacy in adults over 65 years of age was over 94%
* Safety data milestone required by U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) has been achieved

When testing, the world is not a perfect place. There are always other variables. Therefore testing will never be ideal; but it does meet the benchmarks of being practical.
* Data demonstrate vaccine was well tolerated across all populations with over 43,000 participants enrolled; no serious safety concerns observed; the only Grade 3 adverse event greater than 2% in frequency was fatigue at 3.8% and headache at 2.0%

The US Recorded More Than 4 Million COVID-19 Cases In The Month Of November

British hospitals could get first coronavirus vaccine doses next week

The U.K. government has agreed to buy more than 350 million doses of vaccines from seven different producers, should they prove effective, as it prepares to vaccinate as many of the country’s 67 million people as possible.

The Moderna vaccine is expected to be referred soon to the U.K.’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency, to see if it is safe and effective. Two other vaccines — one developed by Pfizer and German firm BioNTech, the other by Oxford University and AstraZeneca — are already being assessed by the regulator, the final stage before being rolled out.

Hospitals in England have been told they could receive the first doses of the Pfizer shot as early as the week of Dec. 7 if it receives approval, the Guardian and Financial Times reported. The government says frontline health care workers and nursing home residents will be the first to be vaccinated, followed by older people, starting with those over 80. The plan is to work down the age and risk groups until everyone 18 and over has been inoculated.