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jimmy m
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29 Mar 2021, 8:32 am

Coronavirus Origin

A senior fellow at the Atlantic Council called for a substantial, international investigation into the origins of the coronavirus and said the World Health Organization’s inquiry has been dreadfully inadequate. Jamie Metzl, who served in the National Security Council during the Clinton administration, told CBS’ "60 Minutes" that the WHO’s investigation in Wuhan should actually be referred to as a "highly chaperoned, highly curated study tour."

"We would have to ask the question, "Well, why in Wuhan?" To quote Humphrey Bogart, "Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, why Wuhan?" What Wuhan does have is China's level four virology institute, with probably the world's largest collection of bat viruses, including bat coronaviruses," he said.

Source: WHO’s inquiry into COVID-19 outbreak ‘highly chaperoned,’ says ex-NSC official


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29 Mar 2021, 12:35 pm

Impact on Mexico

New data from Mexico indicates that the death toll from the coronavirus is far higher than previously thought.

A report published by Mexico's health ministry showed that by mid-February there had been just over 294,000 deaths "associated with COVID-19" – a nearly 60% increase from the originally published figure.

That figure has since risen by almost 27,000 more deaths through March, bringing the total to more than 321,000.

Those figures put Mexico second after the U.S., but the population of Mexico is 126 million – far smaller than either the U.S. or Brazil, which previously ranked second-most: the U.S. boasts a population of over 328 million and Brazil has 211 million.

Source: Mexico revises coronavirus death toll up by 60%, suffering second-most deaths globally


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30 Mar 2021, 11:35 am

Florida COVID numbers face new scrutiny

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New research published earlier this month in the American Journal of Public Health argues that Florida is undercounting the number of people who died from COVID-19 by thousands of cases, casting new doubt on claims that Gov. Ron DeSantis navigated the coronavirus pandemic successfully.

The impact of the pandemic in Florida “is significantly greater than the official COVID-19 data suggest,” the researchers wrote. They came to that conclusion by comparing the number of estimated deaths for a six-month period in 2020, from March to September, to the actual number of deaths that occurred, a figure known as “excess deaths” because they exceed the estimate.

There were 400,000 excess deaths across the United States in 2020, a spike closely correlated to the coronavirus pandemic.

The lack of testing early in the pandemic may also have undercounted COVID-19 deaths, explains Daniel Weinberger, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health who has also studied the coronavirus and excess deaths.

The issue was further complicated because each state has its own death-counting methodology. “Some states classify a death as due to COVID if a positive molecular test was obtained, while other states allow the death to be classified as due to COVID if there is a suspicion that it was caused by COVID (even without a molecular test),” Weinberger wrote in an email to Yahoo News.

Polymerase chain reaction tests — another name for the molecular tests Weinberger referenced — are the most reliable way to tell if a person, dead or living, has been infected with the coronavirus.

In the case of Florida, the researchers say, 4,924 excess deaths should have been counted as resulting from COVID-19 but for the most part were ruled as having been caused by something else, thus lowering Florida’s coronavirus fatality count. That’s possible because people who die from COVID-19 often have comorbidities, such as diabetes and asthma. That leaves some discretion for medical examiners, who have sometimes struggled with conflicting science and been subject to political pressures during the pandemic.

In Florida, the state’s 25 district medical examiners are directly appointed by the governor. Last spring, the DeSantis administration was accused of trying to keep those medical examiners from releasing complete coronavirus data.

I am sure that COVID-19 is responsible for most of these excess deaths,” says Moosa Tatar, a public health economist at the University of Utah who led the research team looking at Florida’s excess deaths.

Florida already has the fourth-highest total number of deaths in the country from COVID-19, but it is also the country’s second most populous state. It has the second-oldest population in the United States, a significant factor in a pandemic that tends to affect the elderly more severely than young people.


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jimmy m
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31 Mar 2021, 7:58 am

He said, She said

There has been a bit of coronavirus news over the past week. Some of this has been contradictory in nature. Rather than cite individual articles, I thought I might do a quick summary from jimmy m.'s perspective.

The first item is the state of the pandemic in the U.S. Texas, one of the largest states of the Union has dropped its mask mandate. They have opened up as of a couple weeks ago. At the same time, their infection rates have hit rock bottom. On the other hand, the infection rates in the upper Midwest and Northeast have begun to grow. The current administration is calling it a fourth wave. This is contradictory in nature, so what is going on.

The latest research shows that the vaccines are very effective in real world, not just the theoretical world. They are 90 percent effective. [This is a good trend.]

Another trend is that one segment of the minority community is beginning to drop their opposition to getting the vaccine. This is primarily the Black community. I think the media's obsession with scaremongering and posturing by politicians has turned this community away from standing in front of the line to get the vaccine. Now since many people have received the vaccine with minimal ill effects, they are more willing to get vaccinated. [So this is also a good trend.]

Well one of the pieces of the puzzle was discussed last night on the news. The recent surge in coronavirus infections is targeting the children. So if the older segment of society is reaching high levels of vaccination rates, then it stands to reason that only the younger segment of society that has not been vaccinated are vulnerable. Now is that bad??? Actually it is ringing the death knell to the pandemic in the U.S. The pandemic in the U.S. is quickly drawing to a close. Young children are the least affected by the coronavirus. Their hospitalization rates and death rates are minimal. It is the elderly combined with co-morditities that are the ones that are dying. So for the young it is very similar to the effects of the common flu season. And because it is spreading through the young, it is moving society towards full "herd immunity" all the more quicker.

---------------------------------------------------------------

But there is one trend that is causing me concern. The current administration has opened up the borders. Tens of thousands of unaccompanied minors have cross the border and are currently housed in massive detention centers. In one center they are packed wall to wall sleeping on the floor of the facilities covered with Mylar blankets. The coronavirus has taken root in these centers and many of the young children have contracted the virus. Essentially because of these overcrowded conditions, they have created the perfect petri dish.

Several variants of the coronavirus have materialized across the globe. But so far one variant has not and this is the most important variant. When you compare the current pandemic with previous pandemics, our is just a minor pandemic. Currently our death toll is around 2.8 million people. But the death toll from the Spanish flu (the 1918 pandemic) was estimated at greater than 50 million people. [When you factor in population growth, the 1918 pandemic death rate in today's numbers would exceed 360 million people.] That separates a minor pandemic from a major pandemic. The other major difference between the current pandemic and the 1918 pandemic was the population group affected. COVID-19 is targeting the elderly. Whereas the 1918 mostly targeted the young and the healthy. So if the coronavirus should mutate and develop a variant that targets the young, then the world will transition into a major pandemic.

So the thing that is bothering me is that housing these children in cramped wall-to-wall detention centers is creating a perfect petri dish where this mutated variant (the Biden variant) might actually come into existence. And if it does then the world will transition from a minor global pandemic to a major global pandemic in short order.

But then again, one of the other bits of information is that the developers of the mRNA vaccines are continuing their efforts by targeting vaccines for the younger population. Weeks ago I thought to myself, "Why do they need the vaccine, because they are the least affected." - almost a zero percent death rate. But now I understand. These geniuses are five steps ahead of me. Should the "Biden variant" ever materialize, then they are working on a solution. Now if we could only get the N95 face mask manufacturers to prototype N95s for children.


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31 Mar 2021, 11:16 am

Natural Immunity Does a Pretty Good Job

The more protective our immunity is after being infected by COVID-19, the less likely we will be reinfected. A recent study from Denmark shows that our immune system does a pretty good job, but the vaccination might be a wee-bit better.

Denmark does almost double the testing for COVID-19 than we do in the US, 10% versus about 6%. Using that database, researchers looked at the two waves of infections Denmark has experience – the first, from February to June, the second from September to December. In all, there were 3.96 million tests performed, more than two-thirds of their population was tested at least once, and 43% had more than one test. The first wave saw 2.2% of the roughly 533,000 people tested were COVID-19 positive; the second wave saw 4.3% infections among about 3.48 million individuals.

How many individuals with an initial infection were reinfected?

* Of the initial cohort that was positive, 0.6% were reinfected in the second wave
* Your relative risk of being reinfected was only about 20% as great as those previously uninfected. In other words, natural immunity protected you 80% of the time.
* Protection for those over 65 years of age was less roughly 47%
* Protection was the same irrespective of gender
* Protection lasted at least six months
* The number of tests by an individual did not change the results. More testing didn’t lead to more or less positive cases.

Source: How Protective Is Natural Immunity From COVID-19?


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jimmy m
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31 Mar 2021, 11:47 am

One way to control the aerosol transmission threat posed by the coronavirus is to wear a mask. But not every mask is effective. MOST MASKS ARE INEFFECTIVE BECAUSE THE VIRAL PARTICLES ARE EXTREMELY SMALL. The ones that will work are called N95 face mask. Now that the pandemic is winding down, this type of mask is starting to show back up on the market. So I had the opportunity to buy some and test it out. As far as N95 masks are concerned there are several different designs. The ones I ordered were called Moldex 4200 N95 Airwave Respirator. So now a month has passed and I am ready to give my impressions for this mask. And in my opinion, I will give these Moldex 4200 the highest marks.

One of the problems with N95 facemask is that they are restrictive for air flow and it is difficult to wear them for several hours. Yet the very fact that they are restrictive is what makes them the best mask to wear because they prevent the coronavirus from passing through the mask and into your lungs. They are an effective barrier to the virus.

The Moldex 4200 N95 Airwave Respirator solves the main problem of airway restriction. The mask is a molded design and as such has a gap between the face and the mask. This dead space acts like a buffer. The mask filter construction also uses a fan shaped design so that there is significantly more surface area. The net result is that I can barely tell the difference between wearing this type of mask and wearing no mask at all. It has very minimal airflow restriction. And as such it seems to solve that limitation quite nicely.

Image

Since I sanitize the mask between uses with UVC light in order to kill any viruses that might come in contact with the mask; I was worried that the materials in the mask might degrade as a function of sanitation cycles. But these mask held up very well to UVC light and I could detect no degradation.

This mask also solved one of my pet peeves about face mask design. Many of the masks on the market use an elastic band to hold the mask onto the face. This elastic is hot glue gunned onto the mask. That is a very weak joint. Numerous times when I remove the mask, the cord will break loose from the mask. This makes it very difficult to reuse the mask. [In general N95 masks can be reused on an intermittent basis for a couple months before they need to be replaced. That is provided you don't get them wet.] The Moldex 4200 N95 Airwave Respirator uses a strip of high grade rubber [like a rubber band] instead of an elastic cord and this band is stapled to the mask and doesn't come off the mask. I have inspected the strip of rubber for cracking which might be caused by the UVC sanitation cycles, and have observed none. So it seems to solve that problem.

The only problem I noted with the mask is that the noseguard is a little thicker than most N95s. I wear glasses and this puts a little more setback for the glasses.


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Last edited by jimmy m on 31 Mar 2021, 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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31 Mar 2021, 1:25 pm

France goes into lockdown



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31 Mar 2021, 7:04 pm

jimmy m wrote:
He said, She said
one of the pieces of the puzzle was discussed last night on the news. The recent surge in coronavirus infections is targeting the children. So if the older segment of society is reaching high levels of vaccination rates, then it stands to reason that only the younger segment of society that has not been vaccinated are vulnerable. Now is that bad??? Actually it is ringing the death knell to the pandemic in the U.S. The pandemic in the U.S. is quickly drawing to a close. Young children are the least affected by the coronavirus. Their hospitalization rates and death rates are minimal. It is the elderly combined with co-morditities that are the ones that are dying. So for the young it is very similar to the effects of the common flu season. And because it is spreading through the young, it is moving society towards full "herd immunity" all the more quicker.

Left out of these discussions that rightfully emphasize hospitalizations and deaths are the long-termers, people becoming significantly disabled after the virus for a lengthy period after the virus is gone (negative test). Very impairing permanent disability is happening to people who had "mild" COVID. We do not know if the phrase "long-termer" is a misnomer because they will be permanently disabled. We do not know asymptomatic fully vaccinated people will become "long termers", or if they can spread COVID to a significant degree.

IMHO until we know the answers to these and other questions to claim the pandemic is nearing an end is premature.

Having significant permanent disabilities from stroke and tongue cancer the prospect of adding to that becoming a COVID "long-termer" is very concerning to me. In fact, I fear that as much if not more than COVID killing me.


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31 Mar 2021, 7:56 pm

Johnson and Johnson Vaccine

15 million J&J COVID vaccines thrown away after ingredient mix-up

A dosage mix-up at a Baltimore production facility, which ruined about 15 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID vaccine, has prompted the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to delay shipments of the vaccine. Employees at Emergent BioSolutions, a production facility in Baltimore, reportedly mixed-up two vaccine dosages.

Image

The company said quality control identified one batch of drug substance that did not meet quality standards at Emergent Biosolutions, and that batch was never advanced to the filling and finishing stages of its manufacturing process. Johnson & Johnson vaccine doses that are currently being shipped nationwide were produced in the Netherlands, where regulators have fully approved operations. But millions of doses expected in April were supposed to come from Emergent Biosolutions, which is a partner to both Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca.


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01 Apr 2021, 7:15 am

Pfizer says Covid-19 vaccine protection lasts at least six months, protects against variants

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The ongoing Phase 3 clinical trial of Pfizer/BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine confirms its protection lasts at least six months after the second dose, the companies said Thursday.

It's the first look at how long protection for a coronavirus vaccine lasts, and while six months is a modest target, it's longer than the 90 days of protection been the best estimate offered to date.
The vaccine remains more than 91% effective against disease with any symptoms for six months, the companies said. And it appeared to be fully effective against the worrying B.1.351 variant of the virus, which is the dominant strain circulating in South Africa and which researchers feared had evolved to evade the protection of vaccines, the companies said.

"The vaccine was 100% effective against severe disease as defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and 95.3% effective against severe COVID-19 as defined by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)," Pfizer and BioNTech said in a joint statement.

On Wednesday, the companies said a small trial of volunteers aged12 to 15 showed 100% efficacy in that age group.

The company has been studying the vaccine in more than 46,000 volunteers and has noted 927 cases of confirmed Covid-19.

"From the 927 confirmed symptomatic cases of COVID-19 in the trial, 850 cases of COVID-19 were in the placebo group and 77 cases were in the BNT162b2 group, corresponding to vaccine efficacy of 91.3%," it said.
"Thirty-two cases of severe disease, as defined by the CDC, were observed in the placebo group versus none in the BNT162b2 vaccinated group, indicating that the vaccine was 100% efficacious in this analysis against severe disease by the CDC definition. Twenty-one cases, as defined by the FDA, were observed in the placebo group versus one case in the BNT162b2 vaccinated group, indicating 95.3% efficacy by the FDA definition."

definition."

These definitions matter. The FDA's definition of severe disease included a raised respiratory rate indicating respiratory distress; raised heart rate, an oxygen saturation level of 93% or lower; respiratory failure severe enough to need additional oxygen or ventilation; a blood pressure drop indicating shock; significant kidney, liver or neurological dysfunction, admission to an intensive care unit or death.

CDC's definition includes a blood oxygen level of 94% or lower and an x-ray finding of lung infiltrates -- an indication of pneumonia -- of greater than 50%.

The most common adverse events were pain at the injection site, fatigue and headache.


LI woman tests positive for COVID-19 after second dose of Moderna vaccine
Quote:
Melanie Rosen, who works as a secretary in the Hewlett-Woodmere school district, told PIX-11 she thought that getting the jab meant it was safe to resume normal activities without wearing a mask.

She started experiencing symptoms shortly after attending a wake — unmasked — for a friend’s father who had passed away.

“There was probably at least 10 family members there,” Rosen said. “I hung out for about an hour and a half without wearing a mask. I hugged each one.”

Rosen told the station that a few days after seeing everyone she started experiencing symptoms of COVID-19, including a stuffy nose and body aches, particularly in her legs.

She later learned that three family members who had attended the gathering had tested positive for COVID-19.

None of the vaccines approved for use currently offer 100 percent protection from the virus — but health officials continue to stress that vaccinations do help to prevent serious cases, and are a crucial step on the road back to normalcy.

Rosen ultimately fought off a mild bout of COVID-19 — and says she’s thankful she was able to get the vaccine when she did.

“You can still get it; you can probably still spread it,” Rosen said. “I want people to know it’s not over.”


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01 Apr 2021, 7:45 am

Johnson & Johnson Vaccine

The company at the center of quality problems that led Johnson & Johnson to discard an unknown amount of its coronavirus vaccine has a string of citations from U.S. health officials for quality control problems. The company has been cited for problems such as poorly trained employees, cracked vials and mold around one of its facilities

J&J locked arms with Emergent BioSolutions in April 2020, enlisting the lesser-known company to manufacture the vaccine J&J was developing with federal funding. At the time, Emergent’s Bayview facility wasn’t scaled for making millions of doses of a potential COVID-19 vaccine, according to the FDA records that describe the plant as a contract testing laboratory that “did not manufacture products for distribution.” Upgrades in technology and personnel were required before Bayview could begin making what’s known as “drug substance” material for the vaccine, a two-month process during which the required biological cells are grown.

Source: Company at heart of J&J COVID-19 vaccine woes has series of citations


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01 Apr 2021, 2:10 pm

Progress of COVID Inoculations

According to the coronavirus vaccine tracker, the U.S. has now administered 153.63 million vaccine doses with around 46.9% of the U.S. population vaccinated (with at least one dose). In the United States. an average of 2.90 million doses were injected daily.

Globally 593.87 million vaccine doses have been given with the U.S., China and India in the top three positions.

Source: COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker


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01 Apr 2021, 3:03 pm

Long Haulers

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Having significant permanent disabilities from stroke and tongue cancer the prospect of adding to that becoming a COVID "long-termer" is very concerning to me. In fact, I fear that as much if not more than COVID killing me.


The lasting misery of coronavirus long-haulers: Months after infection with SARS-CoV-2, some people are still battling crushing fatigue, lung damage and other symptoms of ‘long COVID’.

In the first few months of the pandemic, as governments scrambled to stem the spread by implementing lockdowns and hospitals struggled to cope with the tide of cases, most research focused on treating or preventing infection. Doctors were well aware that viral infections could lead to chronic illness, but exploring that was not a priority.

The obvious place to check for long-term harm is in the lungs, because COVID-19 begins as a respiratory infection. Few peer-reviewed studies exploring lasting lung damage have been published. Gholamrezanezhad’s team analysed lung CT images of 919 patients from published studies, and found that the lower lobes of the lungs are the most frequently damaged. The scans were riddled with opaque patches that indicate inflammation, that might make it difficult to breathe during sustained exercise. Visible damage normally reduced after two weeks. An Austrian study also found that lung damage lessened with time: 88% of participants had visible damage 6 weeks after being discharged from hospital, but by 12 weeks, this number had fallen to 56%.

. . . . The situation is clearer for people who have been severely ill with COVID-19, especially those who ended up on ventilators, says Chertow. In the worst cases, patients experience injury to muscles or the nerves that supply them, and often face “a really long-fought battle on the order of months or up to years” to regain their previous health and fitness, he says.

Source: The lasting misery of coronavirus long-haulers

----------------------------------------------------------------

In general, for most people the effects of COVID will dissipate quickly. But for some, the "long haulers" it may linger for years. But long haulers are associated with the severity of the illness. In many cases, individuals became very sick and were on their deathbed before they were transported to the hospital and put on a ventilator. Many of these individuals died. But a few survived and carry long term damage from the disease.

So what is the solution? -Don't become a long hauler-

There is quite a bit of knowns at this point about COVID-19. So from my perspective, this goal takes two steps.

#1 If you begin to exhibit the symptoms of COVID such as fever, loss of taste and smell, etc., then get tested for COVID right away, don't wait. Do your research in advance. Know where these tests are being performed in your county and who to call. If you test positive, seek treatment immediately. There are a variety of medications that are available that can treat and lessen the effects of this virus. Use them.

#2 Own a pulse oximeter and measure your blood oxygen levels daily. Most people will have readings of 99 or 98 percent. But if it should suddenly drop to below 90%, that is a strong indication that something is seriously wrong. Your lungs may be filling up with fluids -pneumonia; your heart may not be pumping blood effectively and as a result blood clots are forming that can produce stokes and heart attacks. This is a strong indicator that it is time to visit the emergency ward of the hospital.

Most of the people that landed up on ventilators in hospitals were people that put treatment off for too long. They ignored the signs and suddenly found they arrived at death's door.


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02 Apr 2021, 7:44 pm

Long Haulers

I received my first dose of the mRNA Moderna vaccine over two months ago. At the time I noticed an interesting side effect. It was almost like the mRNA vaccine was repairing some of the damage caused by a viral transmission. I reported this out in this thread on 11 February 2021.

This effect may be real and if so will affect the long haulers.

In another thread funeralxempire wrote today:

funeralxempire wrote:
Long-haulers often report symptoms improving after the vaccine so I will be getting it as soon as possible.


So a quick search of the Internet also showed this correlation.

An estimated 10% to 30% of people who get COVID-19 suffer from lingering symptoms of the disease, or what's known as "long COVID." Judy Dodd, who lives in New York City, is one of them. She spent nearly a year plagued by headaches, shortness of breath, extreme fatigue and problems with smell, among other symptoms. She says she worried that this "slog through life" was going to be her new normal. Everything changed after she got her COVID-19 vaccine. "I was like a new person, it was the craziest thing ever," says Dodd, referring to how many of her health problems subsided significantly after her second shot.

Source: Mysterious Ailment, Mysterious Relief: Vaccines Help Some COVID Long-Haulers

Immunologist Akiko Iwasaki: "Before I started seeing these reports, I actually had no expectation that long-haulers would feel better after the vaccine, so I was delighted to see that 30 to 40% of the people are actually reporting improvement in their symptoms after getting the COVID vaccine. And so the reason for them getting better with the COVID vaccine - it can be - again, two different reasons can explain that.

One is that if there is this residual virus replication or viral remnants that's causing this long-haul symptom, then the vaccines are known to induce very robust immune response that can clear these reservoirs and essentially eliminate the cause of the problem. The second possibility is that the vaccine is stimulating the cytokines in the innate immune response that will, at least temporarily, dampen the autoreactive T cells or B cells, and they might be feeling better because of that."


Source: How The Coronavirus Vaccines Affect Long-Haul COVID-19 Patients

This side effect of the vaccine may not apply to all COVID-19 vaccines but might be limited to the two that rely on mRNA design: Pfizer and Moderna.


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03 Apr 2021, 7:28 pm

Ontario shuts down for at least a month as ICU admissions jump

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Ontario announced a province-wide "emergency brake" shutdown beginning this weekend as Canada's most populous province struggles to cope with a surge in ICU admissions that provincial leaders said they feared was fueled by rapidly spreading coronavirus variants.

"The new variants are far more dangerous than before. They spread faster and do more harm than the virus we were fighting last year," Ontario Premier Doug Ford said during a news conference in Toronto on Thursday. "This is a new pandemic. We're fighting a new enemy."

While retail shops and mails can remain open at limited capacity, there will be no indoor or outdoor dining in Ontario, and all personal care and fitness facilities will be closed. Indoor social gatherings are prohibited and outdoor gatherings will be limited to five people.

Schools will remain open for in-person learning, although some Ontario students have been learning virtually since September.

The province stopped short of imposing a stay-at-home order, with the Ford government saying it is concerned about Ontario residents' mental health.

Ford said that Ontario, with more than 14 million residents, will still have one of the most restrictive lockdowns in North America for the next month.

But public health professionals say they are worried about Toronto and its adjacent suburb of Peel, which have been in lockdown since the end of November and have not been able to stop the spread of the virus.

Ontario officials released new modeling Thursday that shows variants are increasing at an alarming rate, and even with a shutdown, it will be weeks before new daily cases decrease and hospital admissions subside.

n its new modeling, the Ontario scientific advisory table stated that the third wave is "being driven by variants of concern," adding that variants now account for about 70% of all new cases detected in the province.

The provincial modeling predicts that unless new daily case counts slow considerably, ICU admissions could nearly double from their already historic level in a matter of weeks.

"It used to be that one family member, often a parent or grandparent, would be in intensive care while other family members would have caught a much milder form of the disease if at all. But with the new variants that are both more contagious and more dangerous, we're seeing situations where whole families end up in intensive care, all at the same time," said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, who leads Ontario's science advisory table, as he released details of the new modeling.

Ford said Ontario has never had so many people in intensive care in its history. While new facilities and at least two field hospitals have already been opened, Ford announced dozens more hospital beds will be available at a Toronto convention facility in the coming days.


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jimmy m
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04 Apr 2021, 10:36 am

New Variant

Back on 31 March, I discussed the possibility of a new variant that might target younger people. If this variant should materialize, then it might transform COVID-19 from a minor pandemic of 3 million deaths across the globe into a major pandemic of 400 million deaths.

Although several thousand variants have appears, some of which appear to be more infectious and some more deadly, the most important variable to track is the age group of vulnerable.

So is there any evidence of such a hypothetical variant. A quick search on the Internet uncovered some disturbing information in Brazil.

Now, experts have warned that COVID-19 is now affecting young Brazilians worse than ever before. Doctors treating COVID-19 patients have reported that more young people are being admitted to their hospitals in the current wave of cases. Their observations are being corroborated by a series of new studies looking at infection and mortality rates in Brazil.

COVID-19 cases among people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s are up by 565%, 626%, and 525% respectively since the beginning of January, says the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), a research institute attached to Brazil’s Ministry of Health. The comparatively lower increase in the overall population “suggests a shift to younger age groups,” it concluded in a bulletin published on 26 March.

Growing evidence shows that young people are not only more likely to get infected with P.1 but also to die from it, some experts have warned. The Brazilian Association of Intensive Care Medicine said that the number of 18-45 year olds requiring intensive care for COVID-19 in February to March this year was three times greater than in September to November 2020, and coronavirus related deaths in that age group have almost doubled.

Yet the increase is higher in regions where P.1 is more prevalent, suggesting that it is not only more transmissible but also more lethal. “It is very likely that the P.1 variant is more severe among young adults,” said Portela.


Source: COVID-19: Brazil’s spiralling crisis is increasingly affecting young people


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