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Guy Incognito
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25 Jan 2020, 11:53 am

I still have a few of the Swine Flu emergency kits they gave us a few years ago. We got those along with an instruction pack on surviving the Outbreak. We did...but at what cost?



jimmy m
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25 Jan 2020, 12:15 pm

China cut off trains, planes and other links to Wuhan on Wednesday, as well as public transportation within the city, and has steadily expanded a lockdown to 16 surrounding cities with a combined population of more than 50 million, greater than that of New York, London, Paris, and Moscow combined.

Most of China's provinces and cities activated a Level 1 public health alert, the highest in a four-tier system, the state-owned China Daily newspaper reported Saturday.

The U.S. government is sending a charter flight to the Chinese city of Wuhan on Sunday in an effort to evacuate its citizens and diplomats as the country continues to battle an outbreak of the coronavirus that has already killed 41 people and infected over 1,300 more, reports say.

The U.S. consulate contacted known American citizens living in Wuhan where the virus is believed to have originated from and offering them a seat on the 230 person flight back to the U.S., the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the operation.

Chinese coronavirus outbreak sparks evacuation of US citizens, diplomats from Wuhan: report
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For those concerned about this virus, one of the strategies for combating it should be mentioned. That is controlling the humidity levels indoors. Maintain the air between 40% and 60% relative humidity in your homes and businesses.

The following article describes why and the research backing up this approach.

This Inexpensive Action Lowers Hospital Infections And Protects Against Flu Season


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eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 12:16 pm

Guy Incognito wrote:
I still have a few of the Swine Flu emergency kits they gave us a few years ago. We got those along with an instruction pack on surviving the Outbreak. We did...but at what cost?

I'd like to hear your proposal.


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eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 12:21 pm

Sigbold wrote:
But as I said we are probably still far removed from this becoming a new Great Plague. And the media is most likely just hyping things in order to boost viewership/sells.

I'd like to hear your proposal on what should be done, regarding handling the spread of coronavirus.


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jimmy m
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25 Jan 2020, 12:29 pm

This link provides a near real-time update of the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

INTERACTIVE CORONAVIRUS HEAT MAP

Johns Hopkins University has put out a heat map in response to the public health emergency that updates the number of confirmed coronavirus cases across the world. According to its website, the map was developed using data from WHO, CDC, China CDC, China National Health Commission and Dingxiangyuan – a website which reportedly aggregates data from Chinese government sources in “near real-time.”


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Guy Incognito
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25 Jan 2020, 12:32 pm

eikonabridge wrote:
Guy Incognito wrote:
I still have a few of the Swine Flu emergency kits they gave us a few years ago. We got those along with an instruction pack on surviving the Outbreak. We did...but at what cost?

I'd like to hear your proposal.


Wait it out. It's not something anyone would want to catch, but the media has a bad habit of turning everything into an Extinction Event. I place more faith in modern medicine than I do the media.



eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 12:35 pm

jimmy m wrote:
For those concerned about this virus, one of the strategies for combating it should be mentioned. That is controlling the humidity levels indoors. Maintain the air between 40% and 60% relative humidity in your homes and businesses.

That makes sense. The end of SARS was mostly due to the arrival of summer. But temperature and humidity are actually correlated. So humidity might actually be the reason why SARS was successfully eradicated.

Image


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eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 12:50 pm

Guy Incognito wrote:
Wait it out. It's not something anyone would want to catch, but the media has a bad habit of turning everything into an Extinction Event. I place more faith in modern medicine than I do the media.

Thanks.


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Guy Incognito
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25 Jan 2020, 1:03 pm

eikonabridge wrote:
Guy Incognito wrote:
Wait it out. It's not something anyone would want to catch, but the media has a bad habit of turning everything into an Extinction Event. I place more faith in modern medicine than I do the media.

Thanks.


If Society falls, you can come to my house. I've got guns, ammo, and beans. Just don't mess with my thermostat setting.

In all seriousness, in a week or two it will be old news. It always is. I was a volunteer on the successful NIH Malaria Vaccine trial. It convinced me that Science Nerds have gotten really good at what they do.



eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 1:17 pm

Guy Incognito wrote:
In all seriousness, in a week or two it will be old news. It always is. I was a volunteer on the successful NIH Malaria Vaccine trial. It convinced me that Science Nerds have gotten really good at what they do.

Yeah, I have the same attitude towards autism. I don't think autism is something that needs to be treated. (I only focus on development). So, it's not like I have a lot to say regarding transmittable diseases. See, in the old days, Mother Nature takes care of things another way. About 1% of humans are resistant to HIV. There are also documented cases of SARS-resistant people. In the old days, 99% of people would die. But all generations afterwards will be HIV-resistant. That's the same reason why we have sickle cell disease today: it comes from people that were resistant to malaria. It's OK to have constructive opinions. Different people have different opinions.


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Sigbold
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26 Jan 2020, 12:15 am

eikonabridge wrote:
Sigbold wrote:
But as I said we are probably still far removed from this becoming a new Great Plague. And the media is most likely just hyping things in order to boost viewership/sells.

I'd like to hear your proposal on what should be done, regarding handling the spread of coronavirus.


Like I said the media is probably making it seem worse then it is. At this point the best things to be done is screening people who have visited China and give them information about what look out for. This information should also be given to medical personnel. For the general population, the best might be just to take care to upkeep general hygiene and health practices.

Now there are some speculation that this virus was actually part of a PLA-bioweapon program and that it escaped from a biolab in Wuhan. Alto considering who the first victims where, it is unlikely.

P.S. It seems that at least two key figures still need to be determined.

Quote:
The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak (see WHO resource) caused me to look back at a paper I wrote in 2003 with A. Zee. We were motivated at the time by the recent SARS outbreak. Some results in the paper may be relevant today.

For Wuhan coronovirus the important parameters such as R0 (average number of secondary cases caused by a single infected individual) and lethality are still to be determined.



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26 Jan 2020, 1:02 am

Sigbold wrote:
Like I said the media is probably making it seem worse then it is.

I am not sure about that. This picture should give you an idea what's going on:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huoshenshan_Hospital
Image

Yep, the mandate is to build a hospital in 6 days and have the construction finished by February 1st, and the hospital operational by February 3rd. Look at the size of that thing. If the virus ever gets into LA or New York, you can expect the same measure be adopted in the USA.


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26 Jan 2020, 2:02 am

That does indeed look worse. But presumably similar measures where taken in countries affected by ebola outbreaks. But those did not turn into major pandemics, alto that is little comfort for those living in the areas where it did spread too.

Now if you are worried that such tings might start to happen in your country. Then I would advise start checking, and if needed too improve, your supply situation. As it is now, you can still do it an orderly fashion and spread out the costs. So that it will not look like you are stockpiling. Secondly would be investing in off-line close by communities, build some social capital. Because if comes down to it, do really want to be fully depended on strained government programs/services?



Last edited by Sigbold on 26 Jan 2020, 5:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

Kiprobalhato
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26 Jan 2020, 2:07 am

when are we gonna get modelovirus and dosequisvirus?


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jimmy m
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26 Jan 2020, 8:18 am

The third case of coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed in Southern California on Saturday, according to the Orange County Health Care Agency's Communicable Disease Control Division.

The patient had recently returned from Wuhan, China – epicenter of the outbreak that is believed to have killed at least 56 people -- and was in a hospital in good condition by Saturday evening, the agency said in a statement.

Canada, Australia and Malaysia also reported their first cases Saturday.

---------------------------------

A couple of side comments:

First - when something out of the ordinary, such as a school shooting occurs, it hits the 24 hour news cycle and the coverage is over-reported. All the news leads with the story and the coverage is around the clock for days or weeks. So the coverage of this coronavirus is disproportional to the actual threat. So in a sense it is overhyped.

Second - In the early days of the emergence of this coronavirus, it was underreported. So currently the number of affected individuals and the number of deaths are seeing a rapid rise because they are doing a catch up on actual figures.

So be cautious to the threat and take common sense precautions but don't fall into a panic mode.


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Sigbold
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26 Jan 2020, 9:27 am

There seems to be four reported cases in France. None so far in the Netherlands. But we do seem to have a heavy commercial presence in Wuhan. It seems that Dutch companies have given their employees in the region the advise to work from home and watch their health.