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SpiceWolf
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28 Oct 2020, 5:27 am

magz wrote:
As a mother of schoolchildren, I understand the urge not to close schools but the attitude this organization presents is backwards - preventing detection instead of preventing spread and negotiating more reasonable school functioning and closure rules won't lead to any constructive solutions.


If it's anything like Victoria, the state simply will not talk, or listen, it issues decrees, states that the decrees are based on science, when the Doctors ask to see the science, they get told "The science is a secret."

You need two willing parties to negotiate Magz, if one party is just issuing decrees with their fingers in their ears, then sometimes all you can do is withdraw your cooperation to bring them to the table.



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28 Oct 2020, 5:31 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
UK study finds evidence of waning antibody immunity to COVID-19 over time
Quote:
Antibodies against the novel coronavirus declined rapidly in the British population during the summer, a study found on Tuesday, suggesting protection after infection may not be long lasting and raising the prospect of waning immunity in the community.
...


Since immunity to Corona Viruses is largely T Cell mediated, that is not as bad as it sounds.
(I mean sure if you have antibody immunity too, awesome, more layers of protection is merrier)

But the medias fixation with antibody immunity grows wearisome at this point, 4 months ago, I assumed it was sincere ignorance but at this point I can only assume it's wilful ignorance, lazyness or a complete disregard of journalism in favour of "Clicks".

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05 ... m-immunity
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell-mediated_immunity



magz
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28 Oct 2020, 5:33 am

Our government is undiscussable and unreasonable but they didn't politicize covid.


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28 Oct 2020, 9:47 am

Ventilation

The coronavirus is an airborne threat and part of this threat is aerosols. Over the centuries, many Europeans had a home remedy that kept virus and coronivirus threats in check. It was called "Ventilation". During winter the microscopic viral particles in dehydrated form float endlessly in the air and accumulate. This increases the viral load.

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Ventilating rooms has been added to the German government’s formula for tackling coronavirus, in refreshing news for the country’s air hygiene experts who have been calling for it to become official for months. The custom is something of a national obsession, with many Germans habitually opening windows twice a day, even in winter. Often the requirement is included as a legally binding clause in rental agreements, mainly to protect against mould and bad smells. But while some people may dismiss the method as primitive, “it may be one of the cheapest and most effective ways” of containing the spread of the virus, Angela Merkel insisted on Tuesday.

Impact ventilation, or Stosslüften, which needs explanation for most people unfamiliar with Germany except for experts in air hygiene, involves widely opening a window in the morning and evening for at least five minutes to allow the air to circulate. Even more efficient is Querlüften, or cross ventilation, whereby all the windows in a house or apartment are opened letting stale air flow out and fresh air come in.

Source: Germans embrace fresh air to ward off coronavirus

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This is also a old world tradition in Italy. "I open the windows to let out the foul air that accumulates in closed areas - smells and germs. Changing out the air. This frequent habit comes from those who live in the countryside." "Changing out the air in the cold weather can be done in a quick 5 minutes, better if you can create an air current by opening several windows. In the nicer weather, it's great to air out the home for at least an hour, during the morning or late evening."

Source: A Breath Of Fresh Air - The Importance Of Fresh Air In The Home

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My wife came from Poland and she remembers as a child when her grandmother would air out the house in the middle of winter. It was a tradition in the countryside. She would periodically open the windows in the dead of winter for around 10 minutes and let the air circulate throughout the house.

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In the U.S., building construction has focused on energy efficiency. Many of our homes and business are sealed very tight like a drum. Many factories no longer even have windows. They are sealed like a tomb. When I built my home over 40 years ago, I insulated it quite well. As a result I can keep my large (2,500 square foot) home warm in the winter with only a small energy efficient wood stove. This is despite the fact that winter temperatures will dip down to -20 degrees F [-29 degrees C] during the winter. But newer homes are sealed tighter using foam insulation that fills every little crack and crevice. Homes and business heated using furnaces in HVAC units can control the level of air exchanges. But generally these are tweaked way down, otherwise a lot of hot air is allowed to escape from the structure. And that cost fuel and money.

But there is a danger here. It is accumulating aerosol viral loading.


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jimmy m
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28 Oct 2020, 12:12 pm

Remember This - Well it may be Back!

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As winter encroaches, more than half of U.S. consumers are considering replenishing their assortment of goods and essential products that they had originally stockpiled during the onset of the coronavirus pandemic earlier this year, according to new research from data-driven technology-enabled services company Inmar Intelligence. When the pandemic hit the U.S. in March, 64% percent of shoppers created a stockpile of products as a result, according to Inmar. Now, roughly 57% of shoppers are considering restocking due to growing fears of a "potential second wave of COVID-19," which could lead to another round of bare store shelves.

Source: Second coronavirus stockpiling wave may be coming — and it goes beyond toilet paper, cleaning supplies


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28 Oct 2020, 8:29 pm

Thank you for the information about the importance of air circulation.
This makes a LOT of sense.


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adoylelb90815
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28 Oct 2020, 10:20 pm

With everything about Halloween, Time Magazine has an interesting article about Halloween of 1918 which was right in the middle of that pandemic. https://time.com/5900923/pandemic-hallo ... =103106070



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29 Oct 2020, 9:07 am

Tents set up at every hospital in El Paso

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All hospitals in the city, according to ABC News affiliate KVIA, have now started to build tents as of Wednesday night.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott also announced on Wednesday that the El Paso Convention Center is being converted into a health care facility to expand hospital capacity in the area. "The State of Texas is also providing local hospitals with auxiliary medical units, medical staffing, and medical equipment," the Texas Division of Emergency Management said.

With the spike in cases in El Paso, city officials asked residents this week to largely stay at home


Taiwan Achieves Record 200 Days With No Local Coronavirus Cases
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While many countries around the world are hitting new highs in coronavirus cases, Taiwan has achieved a different kind of record — 200 days without a locally transmitted case.

Taiwan holds the world’s best virus record by far and reached the new landmark on Thursday, even as the pathogen explodes anew in Europe and the U.S. Taiwan’s last local case came on April 12; there has been no second wave.

Experts say closing borders early and tightly regulating travel have gone a long way toward fighting the virus. Other factors include rigorous contact tracing, technology-enforced quarantine and universal mask wearing. Further, Taiwan’s deadly experience with SARS has scared people into compliance.

“Taiwan is the only major country that has so far been able to keep community transmission of Covid eliminated,” said Peter Collignon, an infectious disease physician and professor at the Australian National University Medical School. Taiwan “probably had the best result around the world,” he said, and it’s “even more impressive” for an economy with a population about the same size as Australia’s, with many people living close to one another in apartments.

Taiwan will be among the few economies to grow this year, with the government in August forecasting that the gross domestic product will expand 1.56% in 2020.

Taiwan has taken steps to provide meal and grocery delivery and even some friendly contact via Line Bot, a robot that texts and chats. There is also punishment — those who break quarantine face fines of up to NT$1million ($35,000).

Taiwan shut down to all non-residents shortly after the pandemic broke out in January and has kept tight control over its borders since.

The decision to stockpile and have central distribution of face masks played a key role in Taiwan’s success.

Taiwan has world-class contact tracing — on average, linking 20 to 30 contacts to each confirmed case.

So far, about 340,000 people have been under home quarantine, with fewer than 1,000 fined for breaking it. That means 99.7% have complied, according to Chen. “We sacrificed 14 days of 340,000 people in exchange for normal lives for 23 million people,” Chen said.


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29 Oct 2020, 9:27 am

jimmy m wrote:
Remember This - Well it may be Back!

Image

As winter encroaches, more than half of U.S. consumers are considering replenishing their assortment of goods and essential products that they had originally stockpiled during the onset of the coronavirus pandemic earlier this year, according to new research from data-driven technology-enabled services company Inmar Intelligence. When the pandemic hit the U.S. in March, 64% percent of shoppers created a stockpile of products as a result, according to Inmar. Now, roughly 57% of shoppers are considering restocking due to growing fears of a "potential second wave of COVID-19," which could lead to another round of bare store shelves.

Source: Second coronavirus stockpiling wave may be coming — and it goes beyond toilet paper, cleaning supplies


Noticed the local CVS is getting very crowded here on Long Island. While Long Island Railroad Ridership is still way down traffic is back to near normal levels. They are saying the traffic is caused by people working at home making it easy to go out locally and people that have fled New York City that are now living here.

I think fear of the second wave is a factor. Although the positive test rates are still very low here both what has been going in the rest of the country and local “superspreader” events at things like parties are getting massive media coverage.

Mask wearing is much the same. Roughly half the people outside and everybody in stores wears them.


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jimmy m
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29 Oct 2020, 1:17 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Taiwan Achieves Record 200 Days With No Local Coronavirus Cases

While many countries around the world are hitting new highs in coronavirus cases, Taiwan has achieved a different kind of record — 200 days without a locally transmitted case.

Taiwan holds the world’s best virus record by far and reached the new landmark on Thursday, even as the pathogen explodes anew in Europe and the U.S. Taiwan’s last local case came on April 12; there has been no second wave.

Experts say closing borders early and tightly regulating travel have gone a long way toward fighting the virus. Other factors include rigorous contact tracing, technology-enforced quarantine and universal mask wearing. Further, Taiwan’s deadly experience with SARS has scared people into compliance.


It is always a wise move to emulate success stories. There is a lesson to be learned here, maybe several lessons. We need to drill down a little deeper into this story.

One lesson is to control your borders to prevent the infection from getting out of hand. If you do then contact tracing is an effective approach.

But there is another lesson which has to do with face mask.

Quote:
The daily production capacity of face mask manufacturers in Taiwan before the outbreak was 1.88 million face masks with a maximum production capacity of 2.44 million face masks per day. To ensure sufficient domestic resources for the prevention and control of epidemics, the Government of Taiwan has imposed a ban on exports of face masks on 24 January, followed by the requisition and rationing of all domestically-produced face masks (about 4 million pieces per day) by the National Health Command Center and Central Epidemic Command Center (https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En). Starting from 6 February, each person was allowed to purchase two surgical masks (priced at NT$ 5 each, equivalent to USD 0.17 each) every seven days.


Source: Masks and medical care: Two keys to Taiwan's success in preventing COVID-19 spread

The key word here is "surgical mask". Taiwan had a very strict mask requirement but it was not any type of mask, it was "surgical mask". And Taiwan made sure that everyone had access to these masks and the masks were dirt cheap.

In the U.S. all types of mask are worn. Most are cloth mask. But you find all types of extremes. The other day my wife visited a store. There was a woman who decided she didn't need a mask, so when she entered the store she just pulled up her shirt to cover her face. When she did this her entire stomach was exposed. She weighed around 300 pounds and my wife thought this was gross.

What was really gross is the fact that covering your face with a shirt offers almost no protection at all for transmittal of the coronavirus. You might as well have no face mask requirement in place if this is how it is being implemented. The whole approach is worthless.

Back in August, Duke University did a study to compare the effectiveness of various types of face mask. It showed that N95 face mask were the most effective for preventing droplet transmission. This was followed by surgical face mask which was an order of magnitude less efficient. This was followed by cloth face mask which was an order of magnitude less efficient than surgical mask.

Refer to this thread on page 426 of 10 Aug 202 1:41 pm
Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus
or the original research article Figure S1
Low-cost measurement of face mask efficacy for filtering expelled droplets during speech

So what is the secret of Taiwan's success? They just used better face mask.


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29 Oct 2020, 6:11 pm

Nursing homes cite shortages of masks, gloves, gowns and other PPE

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Thousands of nursing homes still don't have enough gloves, N95 masks, gowns and other personal protective equipment to safeguard staff and residents from a potential coronavirus outbreak, according to a report released this week by the U.S. Public Interest Research Group.

The U.S. PIRG examined data voluntarily submitted to federal health officials by nursing homes in May through August. Almost 3,000 nursing homes said they had less than a week's worth of PPE on hand, according to the data.

"It's critical because an outbreak could wipe out their supply in a day or two," wrote U.S. PIRG's Teresa Murray and Jamie Friedman of Frontier Group, the report's co-authors. "In addition, it's a huge problem because [nursing] homes don't necessarily know when they're going to get more of a particular item."

Data published this week from the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that nursing homes account for more than 40% of all COVID-19 deaths. The foundation also found that there were more deaths at nursing homes with Black and Latino residents.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services asked nursing homes to report their monthly inventory of masks, gowns, eye protection, gloves and hand sanitizer. Masks and gowns had the highest shortage – particularly in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Vermont and West Virginia. Hand sanitizer was the item they were running low on the least.

Some states experienced a PPE shortage immediately after one-off outbreaks, such as a COVID-19 surge that followed the Sturgis motorcycle rally this summer in South Dakota, Murray and Friedman said.

In other states, the shortages are harder to explain.


Panic Buying Spikes As COVID-19 Hospitalizations Reach 2-Month High, Election Anxiety Heightens
Quote:
Running a little low on ingredients for your favorite holiday recipes? It might soon be harder to find them at the grocery store.

“I did notice that there was a flour shortage,” said one shopper at a Bristol Farms in Pasadena Wednesday night.

It’s not just flour that’s flying off the shelves. Spices and other essentials in the baking aisle are also rapidly disappearing.

Centricity Inc, a platform that tracks e-commerce, reports a 3,400% spike in demand in baking goods in the last three to four weeks, when compared to the same time last October.

This coincides with a two-month high for coronavirus-related hospitalizations across the country.

“I think there’s a lot of fear, a lot of, I would even say, paranoia,” said Dr. David Puder, a psychiatrist with Loma Linda University Behavioral Health.

Puder added that the uncertainty fueling to so-called “pantry loading” is probably also heightened by politics as Election Day draws near.

“People not knowing what’s gonna happen in like a week, right?” he said.


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30 Oct 2020, 8:54 am

I should have seen it sooner.... Sorry!

After the Wuhan virus first wave tapered down, China announced that had everything under control. Because of their lack of transparency, this was a little hard to believe. At the time I began pondering an important question. "Did the Chinese had a secret formula for minimizing the spread of the coronavirus." It turns out they did.

There are two phrases that come into my mind at this point. These are "The devil is in the details." and "hidden in plain sight." [The idiom 'the devil is in the details' has a number of meanings, but they all boil down to one fact, that the smallest detail of anything is very important. "Hidden in plain sight," means something can be easily seen, but because it blends in with its surroundings, it is easily overlooked.]

This thread is a very long thread, perhaps too long. But it does represent a chronology of what has taken place concerning the coronavirus. As I sifted across its many pages, I came across the following page (129) in this thread from 19 March. I paused and pondered it for a moment. See if you can see the detail that was hidden?

eikonabridge wrote:
Asian students of University of Birmingham, UK, heading home to Asia, on an airplane.

Image


Every year thousands of Chinese attend Universities throughout the world. These are not normal Chinese but rather the sons and daughters from families of wealth and power. They are the elites of China. Many returned to China during the winter break and then returned to the Universities in the U.S., Europe and Australia thereafter. So when Wuhan became infected with the coronavirus plague and China sealed off the area surrounding that province, it still allowed these elites to return back to school. Then the world became infected with the plague and these students were grounded in lockdowns and desired to return home. Eventually they were allowed to board planes and return home.

Now look very closely at what these elite students are wearing. Remember that the so-called experts in the World Health Organization (WHO) initially advised everyone to NOT WEAR MASK. Then later they changed their advice to WEAR CLOTH MASK. Well when you look at the effectiveness of cloth face mask to stop the spread of the viral particles, it is almost the same as wearing no mask at all.

These elite student were wearing N95 mask or KN95 mask or other masks that are effective at stopping the transmission of the virus. Did the Chinese listen to the advise of the so-called experts at the WHO? Hell No!

Look at the countries that have fared the best in this pandemic. Many are oriental countries and their citizens wear much better face masks than cloth face masks.


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30 Oct 2020, 2:01 pm

After the SARS epidemic of 2002, many people of eastern Asian descent still wore masks even up to the days of COVID.



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31 Oct 2020, 12:06 am

I've been looking at the covid stats, and wondering something.
While Europe and the US are in the midst of a second or even third wave, it looks as though the death rates are not as high as in the first wave.
Has anyone else noticed this?

I'm not sure why that is the case, but it seems a hopeful sign.
Although not many people are talking about this, we ought to consider the possibility that vaccination might not be the ultimate solution to this virus, and it might become endemic.
This might not be such a terrible prospect though, if it becomes less deadly.
It would become more like the seasonal flu.



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31 Oct 2020, 12:20 am

I looked through several videos of walking tours through Asian cities and saw very few people wearing masks.

Western old wives tale.

Here's Beijing, apparently in winter even.

How many do you see wearing a mask?



This is the difference between believing what you hear, and checking for yourself to see if something is true or not.

Go ahead, pick an Asian city and look for yourself.

I'm not against mask wearing these days.

But I know all I hear about how most people in Asia normally wear masks, isn't true. Asians don't normally wear masks any more than Europeans or Americans do.



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31 Oct 2020, 2:33 am

Watching YouTube videos does not amount to "checking for yourself". You are missing the point about context and customs.

Mask wearing originated in Japan as a way to show courtesy to others if you had a cold, hayfever, or any other trouble to your respiratory system. After that, it took on some other, less medically related reasons. It was consistently worn by sick people in order to contain the spread of viruses and bacteria. Since most people weren't moving in public with such sicknesses, mask wearing people were not so common (but certainly still visible in everyday life).

The custom later spread to Japanese-friendly countries and territories such as Hong Kong and Taiwan, and then later to South Korea and China, but the country were they were most ubiquitously worn was still Japan.