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jimmy m
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24 Jan 2020, 11:55 pm

The death toll from the coronavirus that began in China and has since spread to several other countries, including the United States, rose to 41 while the number of confirmed cases in China increased to over 1,200, authorities said Saturday.

The uptick comes as China expands its unprecedented lockdown of 39 million people to contain the reach of the pneumonia-like virus.

Cases have been reported in 29 Chinese provinces, with 572 cases alone coming out of Wuhan, where the outbreak began, the South China Morning Post reported. Hubei, the province where Wuhan is located, saw 39 deaths as a result of infection, according to data released by local governments.

As of Friday, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, the U.S. and Vietnam had all confirmed coronavirus cases. On Friday. Australia announced its first case, a Chinese man in his 50s who returned from China last week.


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eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 11:13 am

Sigbold wrote:
If there are good precautions being taken we should have little too worry. Unless, someone slips past the net by being infected, but not showing any symptoms yet.

I strongly disagree about the little to worry part.

Medically, perhaps coronavirus is not the most horrible disease. Most people that have died, had other conditions. But the impact to the economy and to the society overall is huge. Entire cities have been locked down, sport events cancelled. How are you going to have an economy when people don't have freedom of movement?

No symptoms, means you don't infect other people. That part is OK. The problem is when you know you have symptoms, yet you insist on taking medication to mask them out temporarily, so to get through airport check points. Not only that, you go to closely-confined public places afterwards. Such has been a case in Taiwan, where a businessman, knowing perfectly well that he had fever, took medication to get through the airport check point, flew inside the plane and took a taxi and other ground public transportation. He furthermore went to a club afterwards, for 2 hours, without wearing a mask. Now, instead of one person, the government has to follow and track down about 100 more people. This business man was issued a fine of US$10,000. Sure, no one likes to lose freedom of movement, but he should have stayed put, get medical help in China, instead of making a plane trip. I mean, even if you are sick but really want or need to travel by plane, most international airlines wouldn't say no to you, but the condition is that you need to wear a mask at all time inside the airplane, and the flight attendants will arrange for you to sit in areas more isolated from other passengers, so that (a) other passengers minimize the chance of infection, (b) maintenance crew can perform plane disinfection afterward more easily.

That's usually how the "safety net" is broken through: by people with symptoms yet unwilling to lose their freedom of movement. Airport check points, though not perfect, is an important part of raising situational awareness to the public. They play an important role, because there are usually also inspectors sitting behind the surveillance cameras, just like in other places of airports and seaports, watching for reactions of travelers when they encounter these check points. In short, the defense ultimately has to come from the public, in the form of "If you see something, say something." The above case of the businessman, was not revealed by himself. It was revealed because a worker in the club developed cold-like symptoms (herself now isolated in hospital pending further assessment), and told her doctor about the businessman's history.

"If you see something, say something" is still the best defense mechanism. See, the businessman visited a doctor in Taiwan, but did not mention that he was recently in Wuhan. Doctors see dozens of cold/flu patients per day, so unless patients are honest, it would be hard to discover who is a coronavirus sufferer. It was only because of the information from the club worker that the government has learned about the case of the businessman.

Given all that, I think no one should criticize airport check points as ineffective. They play a very important role.


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Sigbold
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25 Jan 2020, 11:43 am

eikonabridge wrote:
Medically, perhaps coronavirus is not the most horrible disease. Most people that have died, had other conditions. But the impact to the economy and to the society overall is huge. Entire cities have been locked down, sport events cancelled. How are you going to have an economy when people don't have freedom of movement?


Like how they had functioning economies when they locked down entire cities during what where still much worse epidemics. The economies in those cities will become a lot more local and even if they try to keep everyone at home black markets will arise. Humankind survived much worse then this. And it is yet to be seen if gets at the level of pandemics that might alter social and demographic circumstances for the long term. In which case liberals have the most to fear, since it might increase skepticism of the blessings of the free market. And maybe a move away from individualism towards communitarianism. Since people will have rely more on their immediate communities if government programs and law enforcement become overwhelmed or spread to thin.

But as I said we are probably still far removed from this becoming a new Great Plague. And the media is most likely just hyping things in order to boost viewership/sells.



Last edited by Sigbold on 25 Jan 2020, 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Guy Incognito
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25 Jan 2020, 11:53 am

I still have a few of the Swine Flu emergency kits they gave us a few years ago. We got those along with an instruction pack on surviving the Outbreak. We did...but at what cost?



jimmy m
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25 Jan 2020, 12:15 pm

China cut off trains, planes and other links to Wuhan on Wednesday, as well as public transportation within the city, and has steadily expanded a lockdown to 16 surrounding cities with a combined population of more than 50 million, greater than that of New York, London, Paris, and Moscow combined.

Most of China's provinces and cities activated a Level 1 public health alert, the highest in a four-tier system, the state-owned China Daily newspaper reported Saturday.

The U.S. government is sending a charter flight to the Chinese city of Wuhan on Sunday in an effort to evacuate its citizens and diplomats as the country continues to battle an outbreak of the coronavirus that has already killed 41 people and infected over 1,300 more, reports say.

The U.S. consulate contacted known American citizens living in Wuhan where the virus is believed to have originated from and offering them a seat on the 230 person flight back to the U.S., the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the operation.

Chinese coronavirus outbreak sparks evacuation of US citizens, diplomats from Wuhan: report
--------------------------------------------------
For those concerned about this virus, one of the strategies for combating it should be mentioned. That is controlling the humidity levels indoors. Maintain the air between 40% and 60% relative humidity in your homes and businesses.

The following article describes why and the research backing up this approach.

This Inexpensive Action Lowers Hospital Infections And Protects Against Flu Season


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eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 12:16 pm

Guy Incognito wrote:
I still have a few of the Swine Flu emergency kits they gave us a few years ago. We got those along with an instruction pack on surviving the Outbreak. We did...but at what cost?

I'd like to hear your proposal.


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eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 12:21 pm

Sigbold wrote:
But as I said we are probably still far removed from this becoming a new Great Plague. And the media is most likely just hyping things in order to boost viewership/sells.

I'd like to hear your proposal on what should be done, regarding handling the spread of coronavirus.


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jimmy m
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25 Jan 2020, 12:29 pm

This link provides a near real-time update of the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

INTERACTIVE CORONAVIRUS HEAT MAP

Johns Hopkins University has put out a heat map in response to the public health emergency that updates the number of confirmed coronavirus cases across the world. According to its website, the map was developed using data from WHO, CDC, China CDC, China National Health Commission and Dingxiangyuan – a website which reportedly aggregates data from Chinese government sources in “near real-time.”


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Guy Incognito
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25 Jan 2020, 12:32 pm

eikonabridge wrote:
Guy Incognito wrote:
I still have a few of the Swine Flu emergency kits they gave us a few years ago. We got those along with an instruction pack on surviving the Outbreak. We did...but at what cost?

I'd like to hear your proposal.


Wait it out. It's not something anyone would want to catch, but the media has a bad habit of turning everything into an Extinction Event. I place more faith in modern medicine than I do the media.



eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 12:35 pm

jimmy m wrote:
For those concerned about this virus, one of the strategies for combating it should be mentioned. That is controlling the humidity levels indoors. Maintain the air between 40% and 60% relative humidity in your homes and businesses.

That makes sense. The end of SARS was mostly due to the arrival of summer. But temperature and humidity are actually correlated. So humidity might actually be the reason why SARS was successfully eradicated.

Image


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eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 12:50 pm

Guy Incognito wrote:
Wait it out. It's not something anyone would want to catch, but the media has a bad habit of turning everything into an Extinction Event. I place more faith in modern medicine than I do the media.

Thanks.


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Guy Incognito
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25 Jan 2020, 1:03 pm

eikonabridge wrote:
Guy Incognito wrote:
Wait it out. It's not something anyone would want to catch, but the media has a bad habit of turning everything into an Extinction Event. I place more faith in modern medicine than I do the media.

Thanks.


If Society falls, you can come to my house. I've got guns, ammo, and beans. Just don't mess with my thermostat setting.

In all seriousness, in a week or two it will be old news. It always is. I was a volunteer on the successful NIH Malaria Vaccine trial. It convinced me that Science Nerds have gotten really good at what they do.



eikonabridge
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25 Jan 2020, 1:17 pm

Guy Incognito wrote:
In all seriousness, in a week or two it will be old news. It always is. I was a volunteer on the successful NIH Malaria Vaccine trial. It convinced me that Science Nerds have gotten really good at what they do.

Yeah, I have the same attitude towards autism. I don't think autism is something that needs to be treated. (I only focus on development). So, it's not like I have a lot to say regarding transmittable diseases. See, in the old days, Mother Nature takes care of things another way. About 1% of humans are resistant to HIV. There are also documented cases of SARS-resistant people. In the old days, 99% of people would die. But all generations afterwards will be HIV-resistant. That's the same reason why we have sickle cell disease today: it comes from people that were resistant to malaria. It's OK to have constructive opinions. Different people have different opinions.


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26 Jan 2020, 12:15 am

eikonabridge wrote:
Sigbold wrote:
But as I said we are probably still far removed from this becoming a new Great Plague. And the media is most likely just hyping things in order to boost viewership/sells.

I'd like to hear your proposal on what should be done, regarding handling the spread of coronavirus.


Like I said the media is probably making it seem worse then it is. At this point the best things to be done is screening people who have visited China and give them information about what look out for. This information should also be given to medical personnel. For the general population, the best might be just to take care to upkeep general hygiene and health practices.

Now there are some speculation that this virus was actually part of a PLA-bioweapon program and that it escaped from a biolab in Wuhan. Alto considering who the first victims where, it is unlikely.

P.S. It seems that at least two key figures still need to be determined.

Quote:
The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak (see WHO resource) caused me to look back at a paper I wrote in 2003 with A. Zee. We were motivated at the time by the recent SARS outbreak. Some results in the paper may be relevant today.

For Wuhan coronovirus the important parameters such as R0 (average number of secondary cases caused by a single infected individual) and lethality are still to be determined.



eikonabridge
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26 Jan 2020, 1:02 am

Sigbold wrote:
Like I said the media is probably making it seem worse then it is.

I am not sure about that. This picture should give you an idea what's going on:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huoshenshan_Hospital
Image

Yep, the mandate is to build a hospital in 6 days and have the construction finished by February 1st, and the hospital operational by February 3rd. Look at the size of that thing. If the virus ever gets into LA or New York, you can expect the same measure be adopted in the USA.


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26 Jan 2020, 2:02 am

That does indeed look worse. But presumably similar measures where taken in countries affected by ebola outbreaks. But those did not turn into major pandemics, alto that is little comfort for those living in the areas where it did spread too.

Now if you are worried that such tings might start to happen in your country. Then I would advise start checking, and if needed too improve, your supply situation. As it is now, you can still do it an orderly fashion and spread out the costs. So that it will not look like you are stockpiling. Secondly would be investing in off-line close by communities, build some social capital. Because if comes down to it, do really want to be fully depended on strained government programs/services?



Last edited by Sigbold on 26 Jan 2020, 5:04 am, edited 1 time in total.